Some thoughts on the need/value issue

[patfanken]

I just wanted to put this out there before the draft starts:

Belichick has actually been quite consistent about his goal in the draft: "Improve the team."

His statement about "I don't get drafting for need" is simply that you shouldn't over-draft a player to fill a need. There's nothing wrong with drafting a player you rate highly that also fills a need.

That said, Belichick the economist also understands the fact that roster spots are a finite commodity. That means every player drafted has three "fates" as a rookie:

• He fails to make the team . . . meaning he contributes nothing.
• He's on a reserve list . . . meaning he contributes nothing this year.
• He makes the team . . . meaning that another player already on the 53 doesn't.

In other words, it's never merely a question of what does a player add to the team, but what that player's net contribution is.

Finally, the reason why we rarely see trades up from Belichick in the first round is a simple fact: trading up increases the cost of a player. It doesn't make the player any more valuable, though. So, for example, if the Pats used 73 to trade up from 32 to 21 to trade with Seattle, they might be able to get a player who wouldn't be available at 32. But it would also mean giving up the chance to take a player at 73, or make some other move (e.g., trading 73 for a second-rounder in 2020). So if the Patriots make a move like that, it suggests they truly value that player.

So, looking at this year's draft at 32:

• QB: Backup QB is critical, but I'm not sure they'll see anyone where value fits.
• WR: It could happen, except that BB doesn't seem to put a high value on them in the draft.
• TE: I could see trading up for Hockenson if he's available, but that's it. I can't see a trade-up for a "big WR"-type TE. Depending on the value, a TE could go at 32, but I'm not sure. [BB tends to trade for blocking TEs, and to trade away "big WR" TEs.]
• OL: I can't see the value in adding an interior player in the first round who has little chance of playing this year, and may or may not start next year. I can see the value in taking a swing tackle this year who starts at LT or RT next year: after all, that's what the Pats did with Nate Solder.
• DL: If I had to bet, this is where I would expect Belichick to go; it's his favorite position to draft. If a "planetary" player ["There aren't many guys on the planet who do X"] like Dexter Lawrence starts dropping, I could even see a trade up. [The big wild card is what happens if Montez Sweat and/or Jeffery Simmons start falling.]
• LB: Possible, especially if a great player falls: Elandon Roberts is scheduled to earn $2M this year, and Van Noy is also a FA after the season.
• DB: I just have a hard time seeing it, because who are you going to take off the field to get the rookie on? So the net value of a DB isn't as high as, say, a DL.
• ST: No.

In other words, in decreasing order of probability, I would guess: (1) DL, (2) OL, (3) TE/WR, (4) LB, (5) DB, (6) QB.

Excellent observations. I really think that the position a player plays has a LOT to do with how BB values a player. For example BB obviously values TE's and has drafted a LOT of them with high picks. But I should emphasize its a TRUE TE he values highly NOT some trumped up WR masquerading as TE, otherwise known as HB's. That's why I don't see Irv Smith as a likely target in the first or 2nd rounds. A TRUE TE is such a rarity that Bill will take several shots at the position knowing that even if he doesn't find a Gronk, his "misses" are going to quality contributors like Graham and Watson were.

Rare- is the key word here. Other positions which BB values are rare commodities are DT/NT, DE, and to a slightly lesser degree any kind of DB, either S or CB. Some were surprised when BB paid market value for Gilmore. That he paid market value for a S. That he paid market value for the right NT (Wilfork). Now I don't think there is an immediate need for S help this season in the first or 2nd rounds (I have great hopes for Obi). But it wouldn't shock me if a S he LOVES falls to him and is clearly the best player on the board that he picks him.

He will NEVER pick a WR first because he knows there will be others as good or almost as good out there because there are simply so many WR's available in the draft. That's why from the 2nd to 4th rounds every Pats fan who follows the draft will have at LEAST 5 WR's they'd be happy with. They may not be elite, but that is NOT a requirement in this offense. WR's simply have to be good, but even more important, RELIABLE. And a LOT of guys qualify in this category all through the draft....and beyond

Less than the DL, OL is a value position for BB. But it would take a special guy for Bill to grab him in the first round. THAT's why I'm so confident Wynn will work out fine. Bill thought he was SPECIAL when he picked that high (relatively) in last years draft.

QB will always be the first in value for Bill simply because its the hardest, by far, position to play in professional sports (JMHO) That would be followed by DL, OL, these last 2 simply because there are so few 300lb athletes walking the planet, Then DB's,and LB's followed by a big gap to RB's and WR's. Again less that the position itself isn't important, but simply because there are just more players who fit the athletic profile.'

Thanks for the thread.

 

[SBLIII]

How is TE 5th on your list of needs??

not a value position.

also poor TE class after Fant and Hockenson

 

[PatsFan2]

He will NEVER pick a WR first because he knows there will be others as good or almost as good out there because there are simply so many WR's available in the draft. That's why from the 2nd to 4th rounds every Pats fan who follows the draft will have at LEAST 5 WR's they'd be happy with. They may not be elite, but that is NOT a requirement in this offense. WR's simply have to be good, but even more important, RELIABLE. And a LOT of guys qualify in this category all through the draft....and beyond

Lets see Edelman - Gordon and Thomas will probably not be Patriots in 2020 you think there is a NEED?? I think A.J. Brown is a Strong possibility for the Pats he's already a Beast from the Slot and is built for the outsides. That said TE Noah Fant is my First choice in a Trade up. I would be happy with A.J. Brown as a consolation never say NEVER when it comes on to BB.

 

[PatsFan2]

not a value position.

also poor TE class after Fant and Hockenson

I think you have missed judged the 2019 TE class I see Good value after the Top 2.

 

[maust]

not a value position.

also poor TE class after Fant and Hockenson

BB's history has shown he does not share your value assessment at the position.
Also, in terms of TE Smith & Sternberger certainly deserve mention

 

[PatsFan2]

BB's history has shown he does not share your value assessment at the position.
Also, in terms of TE Smith & Sternberger certainly deserve mention

So too Kahale Warring - Josh Oliver and Dawson Knox just to name a few.

 

[skinnydog]

spend the entire draft on OL and DL, and they will make the other players look better

Sort of agree except that for the Pats defense it seems the better the secondary is the better the defense is overall. With most teams defense seems to start with the D-Line, but with the Pats, I'm not so sure.

 

[50-yard-line]

WR: It could happen, except that BB doesn't seem to put a high value on them in the draft.

Good post, one quibble: we said the same thing about RB last year (and for the last 10 plug and play committee, etc.).

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Good post, one quibble: we said the same thing about RB last year (and for the last 10 plug and play committee, etc.).

Fair enough. I just don't "get" BB's evaluation of receivers.

 

[IllegalContact]

Sort of agree except that for the Pats defense it seems the better the secondary is the better the defense is overall. With most teams defense seems to start with the D-Line, but with the Pats, I'm not so sure.

they're ok in the secondary for now......they've got some youth there plus the best CB in the game in his prime.....

 

[jefmblrd]

Need is definitely a factor, but shouldn’t be an overriding one because it can lead to reaching for a player or passing on a better football player.

 

[skinnydog]

they're ok in the secondary for now......they've got some youth there plus the best CB in the game in his prime.....

Agree as to CBs, but the safeties are older and there are some interesting ones in the draft. I would not be surprised by a safety pick in the first 2 rounds.

 

[Triumph]

The way many people look at need is effectively the "beer goggles" approach: they take a 4 and see a 7.

The way BB looks at need:

Net improvement = [What you get from the rookie] – [What you get from the player he replaced].

"Need" means that the second number is relatively small. It doesn't change the first number. So to use a 1 to 10 talent scale, you could have a scenario where you could have a 6 WR replace a 2 WR or a 9 DL replace a 4 DL. The latter improves the team more, even if the former is a "bigger need."

The Pat's "needed" a NT to replace Ted Washington and drafted Wilfork 1st round. The Pat's "needed" a NT to replace Wilfork and drafted Brown 1st round.

Wilfork paid off and Brown did not, but still BB saw a need and took a gamble.

How many more times are the Pat's going to go cheep on WR and strike out? Brady needs targets that get open and catch the ball.

 

[SBLIII]

The Pat's "needed" a NT to replace Ted Washington and drafted Wilfork 1st round. The Pat's "needed" a NT to replace Wilfork and drafted Brown 1st round.

Wilfork paid off and Brown did not, but still BB saw a need and took a gamble.

How many more times are the Pat's going to go cheep on WR and strike out? Brady needs targets that get open and catch the ball.

I agree. I smell AJ Brown being a Patriot in 7 hours.

 

[Triumph]

I agree. I smell AJ Brown being a Patriot in 7 hours.

Somebody on the Pat's scouting department has to hit on a stud
WR before Brady retires.

 

[Deus Irae]

The Pat's "needed" a NT to replace Ted Washington and drafted Wilfork 1st round. The Pat's "needed" a NT to replace Wilfork and drafted Brown 1st round.

Wilfork paid off and Brown did not, but still BB saw a need and took a gamble.

How many more times are the Pat's going to go cheep on WR and strike out? Brady needs targets that get open and catch the ball.

Seymour
Wilfork
Warren
Graham
Watson
Mankins
Maroney
Mayo
McCourty
Solder
Hightower
Jones
Brown
Michel
Wynn

All "need" picks in the first round. The only first rounders that arguably didn't check a "need" are Easley and Meriweather.

 

[maust]

Sort of agree except that for the Pats defense it seems the better the secondary is the better the defense is overall. With most teams defense seems to start with the D-Line, but with the Pats, I'm not so sure.

One often begets the other.