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Excellent observations. I really think that the position a player plays has a LOT to do with how BB values a player. For example BB obviously values TE's and has drafted a LOT of them with high picks. But I should emphasize its a TRUE TE he values highly NOT some trumped up WR masquerading as TE, otherwise known as HB's. That's why I don't see Irv Smith as a likely target in the first or 2nd rounds. A TRUE TE is such a rarity that Bill will take several shots at the position knowing that even if he doesn't find a Gronk, his "misses" are going to quality contributors like Graham and Watson were.I just wanted to put this out there before the draft starts:
Belichick has actually been quite consistent about his goal in the draft: "Improve the team."
His statement about "I don't get drafting for need" is simply that you shouldn't over-draft a player to fill a need. There's nothing wrong with drafting a player you rate highly that also fills a need.
That said, Belichick the economist also understands the fact that roster spots are a finite commodity. That means every player drafted has three "fates" as a rookie:
In other words, it's never merely a question of what does a player add to the team, but what that player's net contribution is.
- He fails to make the team . . . meaning he contributes nothing.
- He's on a reserve list . . . meaning he contributes nothing this year.
- He makes the team . . . meaning that another player already on the 53 doesn't.
Finally, the reason why we rarely see trades up from Belichick in the first round is a simple fact: trading up increases the cost of a player. It doesn't make the player any more valuable, though. So, for example, if the Pats used 73 to trade up from 32 to 21 to trade with Seattle, they might be able to get a player who wouldn't be available at 32. But it would also mean giving up the chance to take a player at 73, or make some other move (e.g., trading 73 for a second-rounder in 2020). So if the Patriots make a move like that, it suggests they truly value that player.
So, looking at this year's draft at 32:
In other words, in decreasing order of probability, I would guess: (1) DL, (2) OL, (3) TE/WR, (4) LB, (5) DB, (6) QB.
- QB: Backup QB is critical, but I'm not sure they'll see anyone where value fits.
- WR: It could happen, except that BB doesn't seem to put a high value on them in the draft.
- TE: I could see trading up for Hockenson if he's available, but that's it. I can't see a trade-up for a "big WR"-type TE. Depending on the value, a TE could go at 32, but I'm not sure. [BB tends to trade for blocking TEs, and to trade away "big WR" TEs.]
- OL: I can't see the value in adding an interior player in the first round who has little chance of playing this year, and may or may not start next year. I can see the value in taking a swing tackle this year who starts at LT or RT next year: after all, that's what the Pats did with Nate Solder.
- DL: If I had to bet, this is where I would expect Belichick to go; it's his favorite position to draft. If a "planetary" player ["There aren't many guys on the planet who do X"] like Dexter Lawrence starts dropping, I could even see a trade up. [The big wild card is what happens if Montez Sweat and/or Jeffery Simmons start falling.]
- LB: Possible, especially if a great player falls: Elandon Roberts is scheduled to earn $2M this year, and Van Noy is also a FA after the season.
- DB: I just have a hard time seeing it, because who are you going to take off the field to get the rookie on? So the net value of a DB isn't as high as, say, a DL.
- ST: No.
Rare- is the key word here. Other positions which BB values are rare commodities are DT/NT, DE, and to a slightly lesser degree any kind of DB, either S or CB. Some were surprised when BB paid market value for Gilmore. That he paid market value for a S. That he paid market value for the right NT (Wilfork). Now I don't think there is an immediate need for S help this season in the first or 2nd rounds (I have great hopes for Obi). But it wouldn't shock me if a S he LOVES falls to him and is clearly the best player on the board that he picks him.
He will NEVER pick a WR first because he knows there will be others as good or almost as good out there because there are simply so many WR's available in the draft. That's why from the 2nd to 4th rounds every Pats fan who follows the draft will have at LEAST 5 WR's they'd be happy with. They may not be elite, but that is NOT a requirement in this offense. WR's simply have to be good, but even more important, RELIABLE. And a LOT of guys qualify in this category all through the draft....and beyond
Less than the DL, OL is a value position for BB. But it would take a special guy for Bill to grab him in the first round. THAT's why I'm so confident Wynn will work out fine. Bill thought he was SPECIAL when he picked that high (relatively) in last years draft.
QB will always be the first in value for Bill simply because its the hardest, by far, position to play in professional sports (JMHO) That would be followed by DL, OL, these last 2 simply because there are so few 300lb athletes walking the planet, Then DB's,and LB's followed by a big gap to RB's and WR's. Again less that the position itself isn't important, but simply because there are just more players who fit the athletic profile.'
Thanks for the thread.