Schefter: Wynn tore Achilles

[Deus Irae]

So you are saying that we should draft players without a substantial injury history and with no issues identified in combine medicals?

So you are saying that we should draft players like... Isaiah Wynn?

For criminy's sake, he was coming off of a labrum injury. To try making him your example is ridiculous.

 

[supafly]

We might forget that Brady was an overnight success that took four seasons before he was ready to carry a team.

What do you mean by this statement, Ken?

 

[ralmat55]

Not all Achilles injuries are of the same caliber of severity. There are ruptures and tears. Ruptures are where the tendon becomes detached completely from the bone.

Based on Wynn limping to the sideline rather than collapsing in a heap, it’s very likely he’s dealing with a tear not a rupture. It doesn’t change the prognosis for this season, but it does improve his long term prognosis significantly since the surgery will be close the tear rather than reattach the tendon.

Good work by the sideline medical personnel diagnosing this correctly and getting him off the foot, so the tendon didn’t completely tear returning to play or even walking off the field.

Do not dismiss Wynn playing on the right side of the line as a possible cause of his injury. The movements and stresses the body endures wrestling with a large powerful DL are different. After years of playing the left side, his body is trained and adapted to deal with the movements and stresses just the opposite of how he would playing the right side. You need swing players for depth, but I’m not sure it’s wise to that with your 1st round pick.

 

[DarrylS]

Crap happens in the NFL and unfortunately injuries are part of the annual war of attrition..

Not sure how you can predict this or blame BB, as PFK said in a previous post when you pick at the latter part of round 1, there is not much difference between # 23 and #43, you pick the guy who you think can best benefit your team..

Injuries are part of the game, not sure you can blame anyone or anything for an achilles injury..

 

[DarrylS]

From a tweet by Field Yates..

Notable players already out for the 2018 NFL season due to injury:
* Redskins RB Derrius Guice
* Chargers TE Hunter Henry
* Patriots OL Isaiah Wynn
* Titans S Jonathan Cyprien
* Vikings OL Nick Easton
* Packers LB Jake Ryan
* Cardinals C A.Q. Shipley
* Chargers CB Jason Verrett

 

[RobertWeathers]

What do you mean by this statement, Ken?

He means from 01 to 06, Tom was not "Tom" yet.

 

[maineman209]

I think our last opponent lost three guys on our turf. There should be data on stadium turf injuries and I hope that was applied when they decided on the turf we are playing on.

I'm hoping, foolishly, that people will actually read the explanatory text of this statistical study instead of merely looking at the charts and using them as evidence to "prove" their pre-determined conclusions. The text explains the parameters and limitations of the study - caveats that are crucial to understanding the meaning of the charts.

The first caveat to note is that that the study only covers injuries during the 2012-2015 period. Many of these stadiums may have switched turf types since then, perhaps even more than once - the Pats switched out their turf TWICE in 2017.

The second caveat to note is that the study apparently doesn't distinguish between contact and non-contact injuries. TJ Ward throwing himself at Gronk's knees is equal to a guy tearing an ACL while making a sharp cut with no one within a couple yards of him.

The third caveat to note is that these are IN-GAME INJURIES that have occurred during the regular season. The study does NOT include injuries that have occurred on practice fields during the season OR during OTAs and training camps, activities that are often held on fields outside the stadium or even off-site in another state - fields that may have entirely different surfaces.

Lastly, for the sake of perspective, there's the small data set and the confidence intervals to consider, plus the fact that the difference between the "best" and the "worst" turf type is less than 4 injuries per 1,000 "athlete-exposures".

So, FWIW ...

Turf Type and NFL Injuries: Part I | Football Outsiders

Turf Type and NFL Injuries: Part II | Football Outsiders

 

[supafly]

He means from 01 to 06, Tom was not "Tom" yet.

Agreed, but the guy who was not quite “Tom” yet still led them to 3 SB victories in his first 4 years (not including rookie bench warming duty).

Including postseason play he was 14-3 in 2001, and 17-2 in both 2003 and 2004. In the year they didn’t make the playoffs in 2002, he still led the NFL in touchdown passes in only his second year, and in 2005, he led the NFL in passing yards with 4,110.

Those are pretty good numbers for a guy who won more SBs during that time than the time period where he was “Tom.” In 2001, his completion percentage matched his current career average at 63.9. I think they tailored the offense around him post-2006, and I think his stats have benefited, but the crappy Tom was still historically good in certain categories.

 

[maineman209]

I think they tailored the offense around him post-2006, and I think his stats have benefited

The stats of a lot of QBs benefited from the changes in the way the league handles game-day footballs that were made in 2006. Relates to Deflategate, BTW.

 

[ForThoseAboutToRock]

I'm hoping, foolishly, that people will actually read the explanatory text of this statistical study instead of merely looking at the charts and using them as evidence to "prove" their pre-determined conclusions. The text explains the parameters and limitations of the study - caveats that are crucial to understanding the meaning of the charts.

The first caveat to note is that that the study only covers injuries during the 2012-2015 period. Many of these stadiums may have switched turf types since then, perhaps even more than once - the Pats switched out their turf TWICE in 2017.

The second caveat to note is that the study apparently doesn't distinguish between contact and non-contact injuries. TJ Ward throwing himself at Gronk's knees is equal to a guy tearing an ACL while making a sharp cut with no one within a couple yards of him.

The third caveat to note is that these are IN-GAME INJURIES that have occurred during the regular season. The study does NOT include injuries that have occurred on practice fields during the season OR during OTAs and training camps, activities that are often held on fields outside the stadium or even off-site in another state - fields that may have entirely different surfaces.

Lastly, for the sake of perspective, there's the small data set and the confidence intervals to consider, plus the fact that the difference between the "best" and the "worst" turf type is less than 4 injuries per 1,000 "athlete-exposures".

So, FWIW ...

Turf Type and NFL Injuries: Part I | Football Outsiders

Turf Type and NFL Injuries: Part II | Football Outsiders

Ooof. Right off the bat - they define the y axis as # of injuries / 1000 AE's.

An AE is s 1 player participating in 1 game or practice. This feels like a really rough measure. A third Tackle who comes in for 1 heavy package counts the same as a guy who plays every snap and makes 15 tackles. I guess they're hoping that by measuring injuries per 1000 AE, they're hoping to smooth that disparity out across a wide enough population.

I'll talk to a friend of mine who teaches Bayesian Stats about this and report back if it makes sense.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Agreed, but the guy who was not quite “Tom” yet still led them to 3 SB victories in his first 4 years (not including rookie bench warming duty).

Including postseason play he was 14-3 in 2001, and 17-2 in both 2003 and 2004. In the year they didn’t make the playoffs in 2002, he still led the NFL in touchdown passes in only his second year, and in 2005, he led the NFL in passing yards with 4,110.

Those are pretty good numbers for a guy who won more SBs during that time than the time period where he was “Tom.” In 2001, his completion percentage matched his current career average at 63.9. I think they tailored the offense around him post-2006, and I think his stats have benefited, but the crappy Tom was still historically good in certain categories.

All we are saying is Tom didn't carry the 01-06 Patriots and no one is saying he was crappy.

 

[patfanken]

What do you mean by this statement, Ken?

The point was that Brady DEVELOPED over time into the QB greatness we all take for granted. Although we all hate the term "game manager" that was what he was pretty much his first 4 years as a starter. The offense was still of the "run first" variety during those first 3 wins. No one was predicting a HOF career even after those first 3 wins.

I was just trying to point out that truly great players generally don't come into the league "great". Most of them are the ones who continually develop into greatness. Of course there are always exceptions, like Gronk, who prove the rule. But even Gronk would admit that he is a far better player now than he was in his earlier years.

The overall point is that too often we see what a young player is in his first few years and think that "is what he is" and that isn't always the case. I did it myself with James White in the running game, and now 5 years into his career, he has made himself into a FAR better runner than the guy who arrived.

 

[primetime]

Ooof. Right off the bat - they define the y axis as # of injuries / 1000 AE's.

An AE is s 1 player participating in 1 game or practice. This feels like a really rough measure. A third Tackle who comes in for 1 heavy package counts the same as a guy who plays every snap and makes 15 tackles. I guess they're hoping that by measuring injuries per 1000 AE, they're hoping to smooth that disparity out across a wide enough population.

I'll talk to a friend of mine who teaches Bayesian Stats about this and report back if it makes sense.

The problem is if you try to correct for snaps, you end up in a situation where you're discounting practices. The ideal situation is just to run it with practices (and practice injuries) discounted and using snap counts as the variable and see if the findings are similar, then you can be relatively certain the "AE" methodology is robust.

In any case, I think the AE method is fine because the vast majority of events are going to be practices. A player may only play 24 games in a given year (preseason, regular season, postseason) but will participate in practices at a rate three to four times greater than that.

Unfortunately, based on what a stats PhD friend who does this stuff for fun has told me, the biggest problem with injury data is that it's incomplete and crappy, so any model you build is going to be questionable.

 

[Ring 6]

He means from 01 to 06, Tom was not "Tom" yet.

Eh, he was Tom when the game was on the line from day 1. He wasn’t Tom the center piece of the team for 69 minutes at first, but the reasons we win more than anyone because of him were on display immediately.
Let’s not confuse statistics with what it takes to win football games.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Eh, he was Tom when the game was on the line from day 1. He wasn’t Tom the center piece of the team for 69 minutes at first, but the reasons we win more than anyone because of him were on display immediately.
Let’s not confuse statistics with what it takes to win football games.

I'm not . He didn't carry the team until 07.

 

[Nunchucks]

Did you, like, actually watch the game last night?

Solder was pretty bad most of last year

 

[captain stone]

Solder was pretty bad most of last year.

He wasn't $15M/year good last year, but he wasn't Pretty Bad most of last year either.

 

[Ring 6]

I'm not . He didn't carry the team until 07.

Statistically.

 

[Oswlek]

I'm not . He didn't carry the team until 07.

It is arguable that Tom did more carrying in 2005 and 2006 than he did in 2007.

 

[supafly]

I'm not . He didn't carry the team until 07.

I get what you’re saying, although I’m not sure that I totally agree with it.

When you lead the league in TD passes one year (2002) and passing yardage another year (2005), while orchestrating two last minute SB comebacks (2001, 2003) and another epic AFCCG on the road (2004) when you have a fever of close to 103, I’m going to say that he was helping to carry the team.

If anything, he sure as hell carried a rag tag group of WRs all the way to what should have been another SB victory in 2006. Brady was money from day one. He just wasn’t the focal point of the offense.