Reiss: Pats won’t pick up 5th year option on DTs Danny Shelton and Malcolm Brown

[RobertWeathers]

Certainly they do, and I hope we're able to keep him. But as you point out in a later post, he has a decent pass rush but isn't a monster, and is very good at setting the edge but isn't dominant. You think he's a very good player worth around $9 million/year.

Our problem will be if someone decides to pay him like he has a monster pass rush and is dominant setting the edge. That's normally what happens, which is why we lose players. Nate Solder is being paid like he's the best LT in the league, when he clearly isn't. Do you expect Flowers to have lukewarm interest from teams in free agency?

I think he will draw interest from other teams for sure. I just don't see other teams going nuts over him b/c he has not put up sick #s

 

[Crazy Patriot Guy]

I think he will draw interest from other teams for sure. I just don't see other teams going nuts over him b/c he has not put up sick #s

In a perfect world, that would be true. But considering the players that got paid $9 million or more annually this offseason, I highly doubt teams will be conservative with him because he hasn't put up sick #s.

 

[Ring 6]

Its very simple.

A TD pass down by 7 has more value than a TD pass up by 21. Their ratings are spot on and not achieved by accident. Ignoring that fact does not change their validity.

A TD pass down by 7 having more value does not mean their rankings system is good. It means they have one good idea incorporated into their system.

 

[RobertWeathers]

In a perfect world, that would be true. But considering the players that got paid $9 million or more annually this offseason, I highly doubt teams will be conservative with him because he hasn't put up sick #s.

I dunno know. NFL team's are funny. If a player hasnt established himself or put up bug numbers, he typically doesn't get the high-end money.

 

[maineman209]

Im hoping the Pats and Trey are talking turkey right now. For a 2nd tier DE edge guy $9m seems reasonable

Well, the ideal might be to extend him now for 3-4 years at $7M-$8.5M APY, and then he gets 11+ sacks in 2018.

 

[maineman209]

I dunno know. NFL team's are funny. If a player hasnt established himself or put up bug numbers, he typically doesn't get the high-end money.

Again, it depends on what you're thinking of when you say "high-end money". Like I said, even Sheard (with only 13.0 sacks over the previous two seasons) got $8.5M from the Dolts, and he's the 19th highest-paid "edge-rusher". An APY of $9M-$10M really isn't "high-end" anymore.

What the Market sees as being "mid-range money" may still be $2M or so per year higher than BB's value for Flowers.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Again, it depends on what you're thinking of when you say "high-end money". Like I said, even Sheard (with only 13.0 sacks over the previous two seasons) got $8.5M from the Dolts, and he's the 19th highest-paid "edge-rusher". An APY of $9M-$10M really isn't "high-end" anymore.

What the Market sees as being "mid-range money" may still be $2M or so per year higher than BB's value for Flowers.

Colts are idiots but you are correct. The "market" is often predicated on supply and demand but in the absence of fiscal responsbility teams will overpay.

 

[mgteich]

Also, other teams may have different perspective than we have. You say "overpay". What does that mean? A team may value DE's higher than we do. They may be willing to pay their stars and potential stars more. Some coaches feel the pressure of having a good year. Finally, when teams have $60M or more of cap money, they tend drive up the price. Is there fault in that? Is their fault in using their cap money? Is that overpaying?

Colts are idiots but you are correct. The "market" is often predicated on supply and demand but in the absence of fiscal responsbility teams will overpay.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Also, other teams may have different perspective than we have. You say "overpay". What does that mean? A team may value DE's higher than we do. They may be willing to pay their stars and potential stars more. Some coaches feel the pressure of having a good year. Finally, when teams have $60M or more of cap money, they tend drive up the price. Is there fault in that? Is their fault in using their cap money? Is that overpaying?

Yes. It is. Spending $9m yr on a WR who has averaged 20 catches a year is overpaying.

The Patriots are overpaying Dwayne Allen

 

[Crazy Patriot Guy]

I dunno know. NFL team's are funny. If a player hasnt established himself or put up bug numbers, he typically doesn't get the high-end money.

Jerick McKinnon is now the 4th highest paid RB in the NFL.

As I said, I hope we can keep Flowers. I just think you're being too optimistic of what he'll command financially.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Jerick McKinnon is now the 4th highest paid RB in the NFL.

As I said, I hope we can keep Flowers. I just think you're being too optimistic of what he'll command financially.

Very possible.

 

[maineman209]

McKinnon 2017: 991 scrimmage yds, 5 TDs, 3 fumb = $30M contract
Lewis 2017: 1110 scrimmage yds, 9 TDs, 0 fumb = $19.8M contract

Jerick McKinnon is now the 4th highest paid RB in the NFL.

 

[maineman209]

Colts are idiots

"Dolts" quicker and more fun to type, and has the same meaning.

Just sayin'.

 

[maineman209]

The Patriots are overpaying Dwayne Allen.

Not really by all that much. There are a few guys who are primarily employed for their blocking skills that are making close to what Allen is in 2018 (according to OTC):

McDonald - $4.32M
Ellison - $3.75M
Fells - $3.6M
Lee Smith - $3.25M

Allen certainly didn't match even the relatively minimal receiving production of these guys in 2017. But in 2016, he out-produced them all. That previously demonstrated ability isn't necessarily gone forever because he had a tough year in 2017.

If Allen leaves the Pats this season, it's more likely that it'll be via trade rather than being cut. For example, Jake Hollister might be better than any of the TEs currently on the Dallas roster. They're not the only team that might be willing to trade for Allen and his $5M cap hit.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Not really by all that much. There are a few guys who are primarily employed for their blocking skills that are making close to what Allen is in 2018 (according to OTC):

McDonald - $4.32M
Ellison - $3.75M
Fells - $3.6M
Lee Smith - $3.25M

Allen certainly didn't match even the relatively minimal receiving production of these guys in 2017. But in 2016, he out-produced them all. That previously demonstrated ability isn't necessarily gone forever because he had a tough year in 2017.

If Allen leaves the Pats this season, it's more likely that it'll be via trade rather than being cut. For example, Jake Hollister might be better than any of the TEs currently on the Dallas roster. They're not the only team that might be willing to trade for Allen and his $5M cap hit.

I like Allen and his blocking is outstanding but for what they get out of him he is overpaid. $5m for a blocking TE w only 10 catches is nuts.

 

[maineman209]

I like Allen and his blocking is outstanding but for what they get out of him he is overpaid. $5m for a blocking TE w only 10 catches is nuts.

Well, in fairness, it was the Dolts who gave Allen the $5M contract - after he had given them seasons of:

2012 - 45 rec/521 yds .. 11.6 ypc/68% catch rate .. 3 TDs
2013 - IR (hip)
2014 - 29 rec/395 yds .. 13.6 ypc/58% catch rate .. 8 TDs
2016 - 35 rec/406 yds .. 11.6 ypc/67% catch rate .. 6 TDs

Allen's worst season before 2017 was 2015 - when Allen wasn't healthy and neither was Luck: 16 rec/109 yds .. 6.8 ypc/55% catch rate .. 1 TD

Anyway, he was more than just a blocking TE in Indy.

It seems reasonable to think that the Pats were hoping Allen would produce at least an average of his 2015 and 2016 seasons as a receiver, in addition to being the exceptional blocker that he was. If they had, $5M wouldn't look so bad (cheaper than Bennett). But, they didn't get that part last season.

So, it's now up to Allen to prove that he can grasp enough of the Pats offense to put up significantly better receiving numbers - something closer to his three previous good seasons. That may take until the middle of Camp.

 

[DarrylS]

Allen is kind of an anomaly, he only had 22 targets all season catching 10, with the Colts in 2016 he had 52 targets catching 35 & 6 TD's... for some reason either Brady does not have confidence in him or he is not part of the game plan...

There may be higher expectations this season..

 

[maineman209]

Allen is kind of an anomaly, he only had 22 targets all season catching 10, with the Colts in 2016 he had 52 targets catching 35 & 6 TD's... for some reason either Brady does not have confidence in him or he is not part of the game plan...

There may be higher expectations this season..

IIRC, Allen was having difficulty in Camp with getting his route adjustments down. OTOH, so did Hollister (who caught 4 of 11 on the season - an even worse catch rate).

In fairness to Allen, though, 16 of his 22 targets - and all of his receptions - came in weeks 9 thru 17. So he went 10 of 16 for 86 yards and a TD in the second half of the season. Extrapolated to 16 games, that would have been better than his 2015 season. He was trending positive, at any rate.