QB carousel predictions

[sb1]

Teams that might (or might not) be looking for a QB and where they might end up...I'm sure I'm forgetting someone. Speculate away

Jets- Darnold
GB- Rodgers
Jaguars - Lawrence
Dolphins- Watson
Colts- Stafford
Texans- Fields
Broncos- Tua
Washington-Cam
Lions- Wilson
Bears-Trubisky
Steelers - Ben
Cowboys - Dak
Saints- Winston
49ers- Lance
Falcons- Ryan
Eagles - Wentz
Patriots- Jimmy

 

[Uptown]

 

[sb1]

 

[MrTibbs]

Teams that might (or might not) be looking for a QB and where they might end up...I'm sure I'm forgetting someone. Speculate away

Jets- Darnold
GB- Rodgers
Jaguars - Lawrence
Dolphins- Watson
Colts- Stafford
Texans- Fields
Broncos- Tua
Washington-Cam
Lions- Wilson
Bears-Trubisky
Steelers - Ben
Cowboys - Dak
Saints- Winston
49ers- Lance
Falcons- Ryan
Eagles - Wentz
Patriots- Jimmy

I think Watson ends up in ugly Green, that New Jersey team. Jets have the picks......Dolphins aren't giving up on Tua that quickly. With that said Darnold ends up in San Fran. It was written that Shanahan was a huge Darnold fan when he was coming out of college. Pats get Jimmy on the cheap.....3rd round pick. There is no question that Bill loves Jimmy G...the problem is Jimmy is as fragile as Chad Pennington.

 

[Ross12]

49ers have been linked to Stafford, Matt Ryan, among others... it seems blatantly obvious that they are going to move Garoppolo, who makes too much sense for NE. Not outrageously expensive, known quantity, fits the offense. Injury-prone so far but his career is still relatively young. Prime years still ahead. I don't know why you'd pay a 1st for Stafford or similar when you can get a guy who might fit your system better, for less, and then use that 1st on a weapon for the guy (Pitts, Waddle, someone like that). Get him early to make the destination a little more attractive for WR talent in free agency. Garoppolo for a 3rd, Pitts with the #15 plus Golladay or (and?) Samuel in free agency sets this team on a path to being division winners again very quickly.

 

[yukon cornelius]

I think Watson ends up in ugly Green, that New Jersey team. Jets have the picks......Dolphins aren't giving up on Tua that quickly. With that said Darnold ends up in San Fran. It was written that Shanahan was a huge Darnold fan when he was coming out of college. Pats get Jimmy on the cheap.....3rd round pick. There is no question that Bill loves Jimmy G...the problem is Jimmy is as fragile as Chad Pennington.

Darnold as a backup?

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

49ers have been linked to Stafford, Matt Ryan, among others... it seems blatantly obvious that they are going to move Garoppolo, who makes too much sense for NE. Not outrageously expensive, known quantity, fits the offense. Injury-prone so far but his career is still relatively young. Prime years still ahead. I don't know why you'd pay a 1st for Stafford or similar when you can get a guy who might fit your system better, for less, and then use that 1st on a weapon for the guy (Pitts, Waddle, someone like that). Get him early to make the destination a little more attractive for WR talent in free agency. Garoppolo for a 3rd, Pitts with the #15 plus Golladay or (and?) Samuel in free agency sets this team on a path to being division winners again very quickly.

Too bad Bob Kraft's morons videotaped an opposing sideline resulting in the "good of the 32" taking away our mid range 3rd

 

[Ross12]

Too bad Bob Kraft's morons videotaped an opposing sideline resulting in the "good of the 32" taking away our mid range 3rd

Don't worry... they'll get a 3rd round comp pick because Brady left. (I believe)

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Don't worry... they'll get a 3rd round comp pick because Brady left. (I believe)

Of course. But it's not 15th.

 

[Ross12]

Of course. But it's not 15th.

No, but I don't expect that the difference between middle- and late- third round will be a huge deal in this scenario. Guess they could do a 2nd but that feels a little high. Maybe they'll take a player. They need DBs. JC for Jimmy?

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Harry?

 

[lancerman]

Jimmy G is the epitome of a lot of things I don't want. Don't want another "well he might have some high upside but he's very injured". Do that if it's an RB or TE. QB get someone consistent.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Jimmy G is the epitome of a lot of things I don't want. Don't want another "well he might have some high upside but he's very injured". Do that if it's an RB or TE. QB get someone consistent.

Dunno. If BB's GF saw that picture of Jimmy with his shirt off that my wife swooned over, we might have our QB.

 

[MrTibbs]

Darnold as a backup?

Darnold to Niners

 

[Froob]

I think Watson ends up in ugly Green, that New Jersey team. Jets have the picks......Dolphins aren't giving up on Tua that quickly. With that said Darnold ends up in San Fran. It was written that Shanahan was a huge Darnold fan when he was coming out of college. Pats get Jimmy on the cheap.....3rd round pick. There is no question that Bill loves Jimmy G...the problem is Jimmy is as fragile as Chad Pennington.

Watson should be in concussion protocol until he removes the Jests from his list. This may be an advanced case of CTE.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Good thread. I was thinking about this earlier today but only for the Pats. This is a tough one but I'll give some with scenarios (Veterans only):

Jets- Darnold/Watson
GB- Love. I think Rodgers needs to move on. He keeps choking in GB and needs a new environment. However, I get it that he doesn't want to run away like James Harden. 49ers would be a great fit and he really wants to play there.
Dolphins- Watson. I really have a hard time believing he wants to go to the Jets, but he apparently like Saleh. Flores is becoming popular and living in Miami would be awesome. Flores does need some good drafts or the Dolphins will come back down to earth soon.
Colts- Stafford. Good fit. Dome team and a good O-line. Good D. Good Coach.
Cowboys - Rodgers/Ryan/Stafford. Dallas clearly isn't comfortable signing Dak to the contract he's looking for. They weren't winning with Dak so why keep him if there's others available? Dak's value has take a humongous hit with his shredded ankle and better QB's possibly available. The guy has almost no leverage.
Steelers - Ben. I say he returns. But Steelers are a very attractive option for a veteran QB if Ben hangs it up.
Saints- Winston/Rodgers/Ryan. Rodgers and Ryan should explored before rolling with Winston. Both would be great fits with Peyton.
49ers- Rodgers/Matt Ryan/Darnold. Rodgers is their first choice if he demands a trade. Ryan is second as he had his best years with Shanahan. I think Shanahan and Lynch are in desperation mode as they not only passed on Watson and Mahomes to draft mega bust Soloman Thomas, but told Tom Brady they didn't want him as Brady reached out to them and asked to play for them. If Brady wins the Super Bowl, Shanahan and Lynch better get Rodgers or Ryan as their seat will be on fire. And if I was the Owner, I'd fire them next season if they can't get either.
Patriots- Jimmy/Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan should be the first choice. JG can't be trusted to stray healthy and he's regressed badly.
Eagles: Wentz. They're clearly committed to him and he has an untradeable contract.

 

[long distance]

49ers have been linked to Stafford, Matt Ryan, among others... it seems blatantly obvious that they are going to move Garoppolo, who makes too much sense for NE. Not outrageously expensive, known quantity, fits the offense. Injury-prone so far but his career is still relatively young. Prime years still ahead. I don't know why you'd pay a 1st for Stafford or similar when you can get a guy who might fit your system better, for less, and then use that 1st on a weapon for the guy (Pitts, Waddle, someone like that). Get him early to make the destination a little more attractive for WR talent in free agency. Garoppolo for a 3rd, Pitts with the #15 plus Golladay or (and?) Samuel in free agency sets this team on a path to being division winners again very quickly.

One thing missing in all these linkings is accounting cap situation.

I made this provisional list combining draft order, cap space & new GM/HC.
The concrete names are not important, just wanted to see where the top 4 QBs go in Draft and what kind of position NE has in FA/trade.

Pats are probably out of top 4 QBs in Draft (for whatever they are worth). The move up to #9 (DEN) could not be enough; due to aggressive new managements they would probably need to move up to #5 which is hard and not likely.

Things look better in FA/Trade market. Pats are one of the few teams that can take on the top QB contracts N.B.: teams trading for QB need to have cap space to take on orig. contract before restructuring. They also have to be under the cap if they want to use Franchise Tag. That means it is not going to be easy f.e. for Dallas to franchise Dak at close to 38M. It will also not be easy to sign him to a long term contract with his market price rising despite injury. While most think Dak at Dallas is a done deal this could end up being another top domino that affects all.

Atlanta and Philly are in cap hell so despite one year too early (loads of dead money) Ryan and Wentz could easily hit the market as is Bridgewater.

With unprecedented cap situation and so many moving pieces is hard to predict - but from theremaining QB needy teams in FA (if BB sees it that way) Pats are just behind Colts together with Washington in the best position for trading for or signing best available QB..

QB CAROUSEL *cap problems #newGM/HC
#JAX: Lawrence
#NYJ - #HOU*: Watson - Z.Wilson
DOL: Tua
#ATL**: Ryan + Fields?
CIN: Burrow
#PHI**: Wentz / Hurts
#DET: Fields / Lance
#CAR*: Bridgewater / Lance
#DEN: Lock
DAL: Prescott / Stafford
NYG* : D.Jones
SF: Garoppolo / Lance / ?Prescott
#LAC: Herbert
MIN*: Cousins
NE: ? Stidham
#WAS: ? Smith
CHI*: Foles
IND: ?
NO**: ?
ARI: Murray — LV*: Carr — TEN*: Tannehil — SEA*: Wilson - PIT*: Rott. — LAR*: Goff — CLE: Mayfield
BAL: Jackson — GB*: Rodgers — BUF*: J.Allen — TB: TB — KC*: Mahomes

 

[Hyped]

Comments:

1.) Has there ever been a season in which there were so many starting QB's likely and potentially likely to change teams?

2.) Let's see how many that is, a run down:

Bills - No change.
Dolphins - Not seemingly sold on Tua. I say 10% chance they swap out.
Patriots - Definitely a new starting QB for 2021 or Cam comes back as a Taysom Hill/TE hybrid.
Jets - Darnold or the #2 pick? I say 50% chance they swap out.
Steelers - If Big Ben retires....100%. If not, they still will be in the hunt for a young signal caller to groom. 50/50 here.
Ravens - No change.
Browns - No change.
Bengals - No change.
Texans - I say 75% chance things cool down and Watson remains in Houston with Bienemy as the HC. 25% chance they swap out.
Titans - No change, but they might draft a young QB in the latter rounds.
Colts - Definitely a new starting QB for 2021. Staying pat with Brissett? Doubt it...they will be players in the market.
Jaguars - Definitely won't be starting Minshew, Lawrence is the week 1 starter.
Broncos - They could be interested in swapping out Lock. I say 15% chance as the replacement guy would need to be leaps and bounds better.
Chiefs - No change...LOL.
Chargers - No change.
Raiders - I say 15% chance they swap out Carr.
Cowboys - 5% chance they walk away from Prescott.
Football Team - 90% chance they are swapping out Alex Smith/Kyle Allen/Taylor Heincke.
Eagles - They *might* still move on from Wentz...but doubtful. And they have Hurts...so they won't be in the hunt for a signal caller I think.
Giants - 2% chance they decide Daniel Jones isn't the answer. But they might be in the market for a vet back up/young signal caller to groom.
Packers - Rodgers is staying put...1% chance they trade Rodgers. Love is already in place.
Bears - 98% chance they are looking to swap out QB's. They might find that Trubisky is their best choice or Cam....tough call (I think Cam would be very good for Chicago...Montgomery and Cam can run the ball...and make timely throws to receivers. Can't be worse than they were this season).
Vikings - They are stuck with Couch....but could be drafting his successor.
Lions - With Stafford asking for a trade...they will be in the market....and they have the 7th pick.
Falcons - They cannot move on from Ryan...the cap hit would be too massive. Successor being drafted...yeah can see that.
Buccaneers - There's a chance Brady might decide to retire after winning #7. I say 50/50 they look to swap out...but yeah a young successor too.
Saints - I say 70% chance Brees walks away. Not sure Taysom Hill is the guy...but not sure a "veteran" QB could make it work in New Orleans. Young successor for sure.
Panthers - They don't seem to be too enamored with Bridgewater. Hmmm...50/50 they swap out I say.
Seahawks - No change.
Rams - I think they are stuck with Goff...but McVay didn't seem too committed with it. 20% chance they swap out I say.
Cardinals - No change.
Niners - 75% chance Garopollo is the man come 2021.

3.) By my count...that is 10 of 32 NFL teams with a better than 50% chance of swapping out or drafting a new starter at QB for the 2021 season. That is nearly 33% of the league. It is gonna be a wild QB carousel this off-season...and probably the best time ever to NOT HAVE A STARTING QB in place....for the Patriots...a team with a mid-round pick and tons of cap $$$.

 

[Uptown]

Jimmy G is INJURY PRONE. STAY AWAY

 

[NYCPATS4LIFE]

Comments:

1.) Has there ever been a season in which there were so many starting QB's likely and potentially likely to change teams?

2.) Let's see how many that is, a run down:

Bills - No change.
Dolphins - Not seemingly sold on Tua. I say 10% chance they swap out.
Patriots - Definitely a new starting QB for 2021 or Cam comes back as a Taysom Hill/TE hybrid.
Jets - Darnold or the #2 pick? I say 50% chance they swap out.
Steelers - If Big Ben retires....100%. If not, they still will be in the hunt for a young signal caller to groom. 50/50 here.
Ravens - No change.
Browns - No change.
Bengals - No change.
Texans - I say 75% chance things cool down and Watson remains in Houston with Bienemy as the HC. 25% chance they swap out.
Titans - No change, but they might draft a young QB in the latter rounds.
Colts - Definitely a new starting QB for 2021. Staying pat with Brissett? Doubt it...they will be players in the market.
Jaguars - Definitely won't be starting Minshew, Lawrence is the week 1 starter.
Broncos - They could be interested in swapping out Lock. I say 15% chance as the replacement guy would need to be leaps and bounds better.
Chiefs - No change...LOL.
Chargers - No change.
Raiders - I say 15% chance they swap out Carr.
Cowboys - 5% chance they walk away from Prescott.
Football Team - 90% chance they are swapping out Alex Smith/Kyle Allen/Taylor Heincke.
Eagles - They *might* still move on from Wentz...but doubtful. And they have Hurts...so they won't be in the hunt for a signal caller I think.
Giants - 2% chance they decide Daniel Jones isn't the answer. But they might be in the market for a vet back up/young signal caller to groom.
Packers - Rodgers is staying put...1% chance they trade Rodgers. Love is already in place.
Bears - 98% chance they are looking to swap out QB's. They might find that Trubisky is their best choice or Cam....tough call (I think Cam would be very good for Chicago...Montgomery and Cam can run the ball...and make timely throws to receivers. Can't be worse than they were this season).
Vikings - They are stuck with Couch....but could be drafting his successor.
Lions - With Stafford asking for a trade...they will be in the market....and they have the 7th pick.
Falcons - They cannot move on from Ryan...the cap hit would be too massive. Successor being drafted...yeah can see that.
Buccaneers - There's a chance Brady might decide to retire after winning #7. I say 50/50 they look to swap out...but yeah a young successor too.
Saints - I say 70% chance Brees walks away. Not sure Taysom Hill is the guy...but not sure a "veteran" QB could make it work in New Orleans. Young successor for sure.
Panthers - They don't seem to be too enamored with Bridgewater. Hmmm...50/50 they swap out I say.
Seahawks - No change.
Rams - I think they are stuck with Goff...but McVay didn't seem too committed with it. 20% chance they swap out I say.
Cardinals - No change.
Niners - 75% chance Garopollo is the man come 2021.

3.) By my count...that is 10 of 32 NFL teams with a better than 50% chance of swapping out or drafting a new starter at QB for the 2021 season. That is nearly 33% of the league. It is gonna be a wild QB carousel this off-season...and probably the best time ever to NOT HAVE A STARTING QB in place....for the Patriots...a team with a mid-round pick and tons of cap $$$.

No way Brady’s retiring if he wins number 7. I have always believed the notion he wants to play till he’s 45. With brees out they could win that division next year. They have key free agents but they could free up money and resign david and godwin. Likely AB doesn’t come back.