BobDigital
Pro Bowl Player
#1 KC won't make the AFC title game. KC has been to the super bowl 2 times in a row. Since the salary cap era the only team to EVER go 3 times in a row is the Pats. KC already achieved the incredibly rare feat of going to 3 straight AFC/NFC championship games. People have already penciled them in for a 4th straight. People just assume because the Patriots made 8 in a row that's it's easy. Fun fact. KC 18-20' and GB 95'-97' Phi 01'-04' and SF 11'-13' are the only other teams in the salary cap era to do 3 or more. Doing 3 is REALLY hard. Doing 4 very unlikely. On KC's side is the fact that Andy Reid has done it before with Philly. But luck plays a part. Maybe KC will become the third team is the cap era to do it. But I don't think so. People might ask “who or what do I think will stop them?” My answer.... I have no idea. Bad luck, injuries, cap issues, a team getting hot at the right time. I just think something will get in their way. I also think they are likely to miss the first seed this year due to some issues I see popping up, that will make it much harder in the new format.
#2 Tom Brady will win the MVP. Total homer take rooting for our wayward boy? I think not. The Bucs will have almost the same talent back. And the 2nd year in BA's offense is always better than the first. Who will be his main competitors for it? Mahomes, Rodgers, Jackson, Allen, Watson and Wilson. Maybe Stafford or Dak. They will put up numbers. I think Brady takes it.
Rodgers will lose Aaron Jones, OL and maybe even his top TE. Expect growing pains. Mahomes will have issues too, OL situation/Talent drain/injuries. He won't be as good statistically as last year IMO. Jackson has been figured out a little compared to first full year. Watson is a good QB, but last year he was amazing. He won't repeat that while having to learn a new offense, or worse; if he stays. It also didn't hurt that Houston had only 7 rushing TDs not by Watson. Wilson had an amazing start but then he remembered his OL is meh. And no first round help is coming in the draft. He may well be able to repeat his success of last year though and is my clear #2 candidate. If he team forgoes resigning all their key defensive guys to load up on offense, he would become the most likely winner, but I don't see that happening. Allen/Diggs will dry up a little next year now that teams have a season of tape on it.
As for Dak and Stafford, that ain't happening. Dak feasted on the few bad Ds he played early before getting hurt. He is what his stats over all the previous years before say he is. Pretty good, but great. Stafford is Stafford no matter who he plays with. If he couldn't win it will Megatron he ain't winning it now.
#3 GB will miss the NFCCG – The same kind of reason as #1, but more so. The teams who has the second best SB odds by some. They made 2 in a row, which is good. But they are going to stublem next year. While I don't tend to value RBs, but I like dynamic duel threats like Jones. The OL loses will hurt just as much if not more. GB kinda went all last year. You could feel the desperation and disappointment when they lost, like they knew they missed their last best chance, maybe for the rest of Rodgers' career. And unlike KC, they don't need to fall on their face. I see any number of teams capable of potentially taking them out in the relatively stronger NFC.
#4 The OROY will NOT be a QB – Looking back on recent rookie of the year QBs, they fall into two categories. The first are, super athletes like Murray, Cam and RG3 who fell into okay enough situations. The second is athletic but more traditional Qbs that got drafted into a good situation. The Jags and Jets will take a QB, and even with all the cap space in the world they will need to do a full rebuild. I don't see it going well in year 1. That's the top 2 Qbs going to impossible situations. No matter how talented. After Lawrence and Fields go 1 and 2, it will come down to how Wilson and Lance do most likely. Wilson might take some time and he's not a super athlete, so even if he lands in a good situation I don't know if he comes on big year 1. Lance may well have a good shot with his running ability, but it all depends on where he goes. And after being away from football for over a year, I could see him having a rocky start. So I don't think any of these QBs take it. This is a year one of the talented RBs or WRs take it.
#5 The Patriots will make the playoffs. After looking at the cap situation around the league and seeing how many free agents there are and price tag, it has become clear there are more sellers than buyers. A lot of slightly lower end free agents this year will need to take a bit of a pay cut. It can't be helped even if every team tries to push the cap forward next year. The only players who may not be effected are the 5 and 4 star guys. For those 3 and 2 star options, they are going to need to either choose to take the year off or play on a discount. It just so happens those are the contracts Bill likes the most. There was talk about Bill being aggressive in Free Agency. I think that has more to due with bodies than top end guys. I don't expect Bill to ever extend for a Godwin or anything. But I expect him to load up on a bunch of those good but not great players. They were IMO worse than their 7-9 record last year. But it also has to be said that the fact they got such bad QB play and were competitive in so many games speaks certain aspects the team has in place. They may only go 9-7, but it may be enough to get them in with the new 7 team format. 10-6 would almost surely do it.
Bonus - The AFCCG will be Browns vs Ravens and the Browns will win. The NFCCG will be the Bucs vs SF with the Bucs winning. Bucs will beat the Browns in the SB. Why? IMO the best teams going into next year in the NFC are SF, LAR and TB. LAR with Stafford? I don't see Stafford getting it done. Not against the SF or TB D. I have no idea who SF's QB will be, but they will be able to protect him better than LAR can protect Stafford. After that I see a hard fought match with a healthy SF and TB teams which TB wins. I think KC stumbles and they get the Ravens get the 1 seed. I don't trust Lamar much, but with the 1 seed he should have an easy out that he can work with. Someone is going to beat KC besides Brady this year in the playoffs. While I don't think the Browns are a great team, I think they have talent and will be able to add to it. Last year was a good experience and they build on it. Many unfortunate plays happened last year to them against KC, I see it balancing out this year and getting the bounces if they play again in the tournament. The Bills and Ravens are also teams KC has traditionally had their way with, eventually they will have it go there way.
#2 Tom Brady will win the MVP. Total homer take rooting for our wayward boy? I think not. The Bucs will have almost the same talent back. And the 2nd year in BA's offense is always better than the first. Who will be his main competitors for it? Mahomes, Rodgers, Jackson, Allen, Watson and Wilson. Maybe Stafford or Dak. They will put up numbers. I think Brady takes it.
Rodgers will lose Aaron Jones, OL and maybe even his top TE. Expect growing pains. Mahomes will have issues too, OL situation/Talent drain/injuries. He won't be as good statistically as last year IMO. Jackson has been figured out a little compared to first full year. Watson is a good QB, but last year he was amazing. He won't repeat that while having to learn a new offense, or worse; if he stays. It also didn't hurt that Houston had only 7 rushing TDs not by Watson. Wilson had an amazing start but then he remembered his OL is meh. And no first round help is coming in the draft. He may well be able to repeat his success of last year though and is my clear #2 candidate. If he team forgoes resigning all their key defensive guys to load up on offense, he would become the most likely winner, but I don't see that happening. Allen/Diggs will dry up a little next year now that teams have a season of tape on it.
As for Dak and Stafford, that ain't happening. Dak feasted on the few bad Ds he played early before getting hurt. He is what his stats over all the previous years before say he is. Pretty good, but great. Stafford is Stafford no matter who he plays with. If he couldn't win it will Megatron he ain't winning it now.
#3 GB will miss the NFCCG – The same kind of reason as #1, but more so. The teams who has the second best SB odds by some. They made 2 in a row, which is good. But they are going to stublem next year. While I don't tend to value RBs, but I like dynamic duel threats like Jones. The OL loses will hurt just as much if not more. GB kinda went all last year. You could feel the desperation and disappointment when they lost, like they knew they missed their last best chance, maybe for the rest of Rodgers' career. And unlike KC, they don't need to fall on their face. I see any number of teams capable of potentially taking them out in the relatively stronger NFC.
#4 The OROY will NOT be a QB – Looking back on recent rookie of the year QBs, they fall into two categories. The first are, super athletes like Murray, Cam and RG3 who fell into okay enough situations. The second is athletic but more traditional Qbs that got drafted into a good situation. The Jags and Jets will take a QB, and even with all the cap space in the world they will need to do a full rebuild. I don't see it going well in year 1. That's the top 2 Qbs going to impossible situations. No matter how talented. After Lawrence and Fields go 1 and 2, it will come down to how Wilson and Lance do most likely. Wilson might take some time and he's not a super athlete, so even if he lands in a good situation I don't know if he comes on big year 1. Lance may well have a good shot with his running ability, but it all depends on where he goes. And after being away from football for over a year, I could see him having a rocky start. So I don't think any of these QBs take it. This is a year one of the talented RBs or WRs take it.
#5 The Patriots will make the playoffs. After looking at the cap situation around the league and seeing how many free agents there are and price tag, it has become clear there are more sellers than buyers. A lot of slightly lower end free agents this year will need to take a bit of a pay cut. It can't be helped even if every team tries to push the cap forward next year. The only players who may not be effected are the 5 and 4 star guys. For those 3 and 2 star options, they are going to need to either choose to take the year off or play on a discount. It just so happens those are the contracts Bill likes the most. There was talk about Bill being aggressive in Free Agency. I think that has more to due with bodies than top end guys. I don't expect Bill to ever extend for a Godwin or anything. But I expect him to load up on a bunch of those good but not great players. They were IMO worse than their 7-9 record last year. But it also has to be said that the fact they got such bad QB play and were competitive in so many games speaks certain aspects the team has in place. They may only go 9-7, but it may be enough to get them in with the new 7 team format. 10-6 would almost surely do it.
Bonus - The AFCCG will be Browns vs Ravens and the Browns will win. The NFCCG will be the Bucs vs SF with the Bucs winning. Bucs will beat the Browns in the SB. Why? IMO the best teams going into next year in the NFC are SF, LAR and TB. LAR with Stafford? I don't see Stafford getting it done. Not against the SF or TB D. I have no idea who SF's QB will be, but they will be able to protect him better than LAR can protect Stafford. After that I see a hard fought match with a healthy SF and TB teams which TB wins. I think KC stumbles and they get the Ravens get the 1 seed. I don't trust Lamar much, but with the 1 seed he should have an easy out that he can work with. Someone is going to beat KC besides Brady this year in the playoffs. While I don't think the Browns are a great team, I think they have talent and will be able to add to it. Last year was a good experience and they build on it. Many unfortunate plays happened last year to them against KC, I see it balancing out this year and getting the bounces if they play again in the tournament. The Bills and Ravens are also teams KC has traditionally had their way with, eventually they will have it go there way.
