So been reading, doing my own research and just thinking about this game a lot. Ready to make my in depth prediction on it. My first instinct was the Patriots will win. As time has gone on with Collins being closer and closer to ruled out among other things. I have been feeling more and more confident. The Pats are likely to win this game. Not as likely as they were too beat LAC, but I don't think they are far behind that right now.
First I want to talk about last week. Neither team played a clean 60 minutes in all phases. A lot of mistakes made by both advancing teams and each fan base has rightly pointed out they will clean a lot of that up, and if the opponent makes similar mistakes compared to last week they will win convincingly. I think any person expecting either offense too be that sloppy again will be disappointed. I believe we are in for a much cleaner game. That all being said offensively both fans bases will point to the 'yeah but!' about their offense. Maye's and Pats much improved 2nd half play and Stroud's incredible efficiency outside of his mistakes. All this is fair to bring up. So while i won't completely throw out last week, I think it is best to focus on the total body of work than to over react to a single data point. (Not to say it shouldn't be emphasized). Now on to the game this week.
From the Pats perspective I think there are a lot of things I expected last game that didn't happen. One being Marcus Jones to have some big punt returns. The return game was mostly a non factor for various reasons I won't get into. This bodes well for this week. I foresee a lot of punting by both teams and the return game will be a factor. The Pats have the best return man in the NFL and very good return blocking to go with it. This to me is a huge unsung point. Which team can manufacture points without their offense? I think the Pats can absolutely do that here. Either by taking one to the house or just giving their O some very short fields. I was wrong about Jones breaking a big one last week. But look for it here. Houston's Special Teams defense isn't good. They have one of the worst punt return defenses in the NFL. And since the Pats had absolutely nothing going last week i predict Marcus Jones to make an impact here. This is a massive strength vs weakness no one seems to be talking about.
As far as big plays. This is something i preached even before the start of the playoffs. If the Pats are to win it all. They don't only need big plays, they need what i term 'easy money' big plays. They don't JUST need Maye to lay it in from 40 yards out. They need Henderson to break a short pass or bounce a run outside. They need Williams to take it off the top to the house or hit a cross and break a tackle and turn up field. A short pass for a long game. They had one last week, but not from the guy anyone predicted. (Well 2 if you count Maye's run). Stevenson was kind of just forgotten about. But i will assume this won't happen again. They need one of their home run hitters to hit a home run for them on a play which should be nothing. This is the game to start getting those plays. Williams had a key first down. But nothing else. Henderson would have been free for a TD if Maye had time. This is the week we need our speedsters to cash in and get us some easy points. Cause a 15 play drive vs the Titans to score is NOT what you want to have to do.
The Texans potential weakness to scrambling QBs and explosive plays has been discussed to death. So i won't talk about that. Both are nice factors.
Something that deserves to be talked about more is the run defense of both teams. The Pats. They pretty much shut down the Chargers. Now they face a better line but with Tonga looking ready to go they have their entire core run defense back. Keep in mind this was for a time the best run D in the NFL. Shutting down some of the best runners and run games in the league. They tend to do an even better job vs the backs when they don't face a particularly explosive running QB. Stroud can run a bit but he's not what I'd term a big time threat. He is okay but selective when he does it. So when he does it tends to go well. But really he isn't the type to kill you that way.
The point being their run game is pretty bad. One of the worst in the NFL by YPG and even worse by average. I could see this being a game where Marks and Chubb are completely shut down. I would not at all be surprised to keep the Texans as a whole under 3YPA. That means a lot of 2nd/3rd and longs. Add that into needing to hold the ball a tic longer with Collins out. I see our pass rush getting home more than usual.
I think the weakness of the Houston run defense is being a bit overplayed. They are good. Bur recently our run game has been doing better particularly from the strong side. While i think we will have much more difficulty running this game than last game. We don't need to get 5 a clip. It be great but unlikely. The idea is just not to be completely stuffed and waste a down. Stay on time so you are in 3rd and 5 at worst. Being in 3rd and 6 or more is really bad against this team. However I think the Texans will find themselves in longer 3rd downs due to inability to run than we will. So i think the Texans will have more chances to make mistakes than the Patriots.
Add in one last wrinkle. The Red Zone offense by the Pats was terrible last game vs a very good Chargers D. I don't see them being held out inside the 20 two weeks in a row. They will be better prepared and convert at least 1 TD near the goal line.
So how i see the game going... Pats score a goal line TD... a big play TD from outside the 20 and cobble together through D, field position, return yardage and Maye scrambles at least a few FG drives. I think they hit 20-23 this game. Maybe more if they have success in the goal line more than once. Houston's inability to run and lack of Collins vs our D makes things hard on them. We don't hold them to 3 like we did last week. But 13 is reasonable. Add in 3 more cause they will get a turnover at some point and turn it into a FG (hopefully that's all).
So I have the Pats 23-16 But it could also snow ball badly for either team if things go wrong early. Neither team wants to play from 10 points behind in this one. If they do at any point they will feel rightfully desperate... and that could lead to things getting worse fast even relatively early in the game. For instance if the Texans are down 3-13 near half time and know we get the ball first... do they go for that 4th and 4 near mid field? Then if they do... and arguably they should... but it could lead to a bad spiral. I don't think a blow out is outside the realm of possibility. Though i see it more likely going that way in the Pats favor.
