Pats vs. Rams Superbowl pre-game analysis

[ALP]

this has got to be one of the shortest injury reports before a playoff ever...

 

[miloofcroton]

Do the rams have a similar offense as philly did last year? Seems like to me that the rams are under center a lot

The Rams are an east-west, outside zone play action team that operates out of 3WR.

I'm not positive, but I think the Eagles were a man blocking, north-south, zone read play action team that also operated out of 3WR.

The key differences are:

- The Eagles were power, the Rams are finesse
- The Eagles preferred running inside, the Rams prefer running outside
- The Eagles had zone read play action looks, a la the RPO. The Rams have classic under center play action and bootlegs.

In the passing game, outside of the play action, there are differences too. The Eagles are trying to beat you with spread passing concepts (Air Raid type stuff), and the Rams are trying to beat you with WCO type stuff. The Eagles were looking to body defenders with their big talented TE and WR (Ertz, Jeffrey) and spread the field with guys like Agholor and whoever was coming out of the backfield. The Rams are looking for separation from their bevy of receivers via quickness and route running savy. They're more interested in stretching the field than spreading it, and they prefer reliable reads and routes for Goff instead of some of the cowboy stuff that the Eagles would get out of Wentz/Foles. They're also more interested in YAC than the Eagles.

Granted, there is a TON of overlap here, but I think that highlights the differences.

 

[libra957]

The defense and Belichick will be in the spotlight again. They gave up an explosive amount of points to the Eagles last year, and most recently the chiefs and now here comes a high powered Rams.

 

[miloofcroton]

I said earlier that the Pats defense matches up well against the Rams offense. Now I'm not so sure.

The Pats DL is really going to have their hands full trying to maintain gap responsibility. They are 29th in the league in YPA allowed, and they don't have the requisite athletes upfront to stay in front of the ball carrier, in my opinion.

In the passing game though, I like the Pats chances more. The Pats are going to tackle well, limiting YAC. They have the cover guys to stay with WRs downfield, and they have the hybrid guys to cover the slot well.

(My game prediction)

I don't foresee it becoming a slugfest though. Belichick will want to get out to a lead, so as to limit the usefulness of the Rams rushing attack that would prove deadly. The Rams are going to resist and try to maintain their rush/pass balance. I think it will work, but it will be a gambit. There will be some high scoring momentum in the first half. In the second half, the Rams will try to slow thing down and grind it out, but the Pats will want to keep up the pace. Goff is going to make some mistakes and not keep up with the GOAT, right as the PA is losing its effectiveness heading into the 4th quarter. Pats win by a touchdown, with a score of 31-24.

 

[Redman443]

The Rams are an east-west, outside zone play action team that operates out of 3WR.

I'm not positive, but I think the Eagles were a man blocking, north-south, zone read play action team that also operated out of 3WR.

The key differences are:

- The Eagles were power, the Rams are finesse
- The Eagles preferred running inside, the Rams prefer running outside
- The Eagles had zone read play action looks, a la the RPO. The Rams have classic under center play action and bootlegs.

In the passing game, outside of the play action, there are differences too. The Eagles are trying to beat you with spread passing concepts (Air Raid type stuff), and the Rams are trying to beat you with WCO type stuff. The Eagles were looking to body defenders with their big talented TE and WR (Ertz, Jeffrey) and spread the field with guys like Agholor and whoever was coming out of the backfield. The Rams are looking for separation from their bevy of receivers via quickness and route running savy. They're more interested in stretching the field than spreading it, and they prefer reliable reads and routes for Goff instead of some of the cowboy stuff that the Eagles would get out of Wentz/Foles. They're also more interested in YAC than the Eagles.

Granted, there is a TON of overlap here, but I think that highlights the differences.

The eagles absolutely killed us with the RPO. Files owned this defense. I think bill underestimated foles and what he was capable of doing. It seems like the rams run a zone run offense. A lot of their snaps are under center when Philly was almost always in the shotgun. Our defense had no idea if it was a run or a pass.

 

[Redman443]

I said earlier that the Pats defense matches up well against the Rams offense. Now I'm not so sure.

The Pats DL is really going to have their hands full trying to maintain gap responsibility. They are 29th in the league in YPA allowed, and they don't have the requisite athletes upfront to stay in front of the ball carrier, in my opinion.

In the passing game though, I like the Pats chances more. The Pats are going to tackle well, limiting YAC. They have the cover guys to stay with WRs downfield, and they have the hybrid guys to cover the slot well.

(My game prediction)

I don't foresee it becoming a slugfest though. Belichick will want to get out to a lead, so as to limit the usefulness of the Rams rushing attack that would prove deadly. The Rams are going to resist and try to maintain their rush/pass balance. I think it will work, but it will be a gambit. There will be some high scoring momentum in the first half. In the second half, the Rams will try to slow thing down and grind it out, but the Pats will want to keep up the pace. Goff is going to make some mistakes and not keep up with the GOAT, right as the PA is losing its effectiveness heading into the 4th quarter. Pats win by a touchdown, with a score of 31-24.

Seems in years past, we had a big defensive tackle used to stop the run. We had Richard Seymour and Wilfork but now we don’t have that crucial run stopper. Maybe Hightower but his pursuit is off because he’s not as fast as he used to be.

 

[ralmat55]

Defensively, this is all about how well the Patriots can defend the Rams’ RBs. They’ve proven in the 1st 2 playoff games that they’re capable of handling receiving corps superior to what the Rams offer especially with Cooper Kupp out.

Can they stop the zone runs? But, mostly, if Gurley is healthy, can they defend him catching passes out of the backfield? A review of the AFCCG showed the Chiefs 2nd half offensive explosion was the result of getting Damien Williams involved in the passing game getting huge chunk plays on wheel routes.

There will be a different game plan and probably they won’t have to allocate as much attention to the Rams receivers as they did the Chiefs but how healthy Gurley is and how well they cover him is the key to winning this game.

 

[miloofcroton]

Seems in years past, we had a big defensive tackle used to stop the run. We had Richard Seymour and Wilfork but now we don’t have that crucial run stopper. Maybe Hightower but his pursuit is off because he’s not as fast as he used to be.

You're not going to win by defeating a block... the whole point of the zone run is that you *can't* defeat a block. Guys like Wilfork just get outran for the most part. You have to pursue, stay disciplined, and swarm.

 

[miloofcroton]

The eagles absolutely killed us with the RPO. Files owned this defense. I think bill underestimated foles and what he was capable of doing. It seems like the rams run a zone run offense. A lot of their snaps are under center when Philly was almost always in the shotgun. Our defense had no idea if it was a run or a pass.

That offense was loaded, and they were going against a very intelligent rookie head coach who certainly had some tricks up his sleeve. I don't think he underestimated him. I think it was just a massive challenge, and his defensive staff left a bit to be desired (Patricia), in my opinion.

 

[NEPats1]

Bedard brings up an interesting point on what the Pats may do on Defense

Hour 1 at 18:20 mark:

Podcast: Bedard on AFC Championship/Super Bowl with Felger & Mazz 01.23.19 | Boston Sports Journal

 

[sean10mm]

The big difference between the Chiefs and the Rams is that the Chiefs can beat you badly on offense even when your defense does everything right. On multiple plays the Patriots had Mahomes dead to rights and he could still scramble and hit something stupid like a sidearm falling throw off the back foot that was pinpoint accurate 30-50 yards away. Goff is not really that kind of player.

 

[Nunchucks]

Bedard brings up an interesting point on what the Pats may do on Defense

Hour 1 at 18:20 mark:

Podcast: Bedard on AFC Championship/Super Bowl with Felger & Mazz 01.23.19 | Boston Sports Journal

I'd be careful with that strategy. There is nothing stopping the Rams from quick snapping before 15 seconds left on the clock and catching the Patriots defense in a bad defensive alignment.

 

[mosi]

I think we need to wait and see what Mike Lombardi thinks about this matchup!

 

[BobDigital]

I said earlier that the Pats defense matches up well against the Rams offense. Now I'm not so sure.

The Pats DL is really going to have their hands full trying to maintain gap responsibility. They are 29th in the league in YPA allowed, and they don't have the requisite athletes upfront to stay in front of the ball carrier, in my opinion.

In the passing game though, I like the Pats chances more. The Pats are going to tackle well, limiting YAC. They have the cover guys to stay with WRs downfield, and they have the hybrid guys to cover the slot well.

(My game prediction)

I don't foresee it becoming a slugfest though. Belichick will want to get out to a lead, so as to limit the usefulness of the Rams rushing attack that would prove deadly. The Rams are going to resist and try to maintain their rush/pass balance. I think it will work, but it will be a gambit. There will be some high scoring momentum in the first half. In the second half, the Rams will try to slow thing down and grind it out, but the Pats will want to keep up the pace. Goff is going to make some mistakes and not keep up with the GOAT, right as the PA is losing its effectiveness heading into the 4th quarter. Pats win by a touchdown, with a score of 31-24.

My thought is this. You can ignore the Pats defensive 4.9YPC per rush just like you can ignore the Rams 5.1YPC per rush. In the Rams case they have turned a corner and in our case it is mostly scheme related.

Outside of the first 3 games of the year the Pats have done well against the run. The exceptions being Miami and Pitt which was just a bad stretch for whatever reason. Since then they have gotten back on track and have executed their 4-2-5 without letting the run get going too much. The Pats defensive philosophy has been that it's okay to let a team run on you as long as they don't completely run over you. They are more interested in slowing down the passing game which is the correct thing to worry about.

I would expect the Patriots to continue the fairly solid run defense they have had most of the year and in the past 4 games while keeping their main focus on pass defense.

The Pats match up with the Rams offense well. Goff is mobile but not super mobile. He is a guy they can afford to pin their ears back and get after. They have been getting pressure the last 2 games and that should continue. Goff does badly with pressure. They also do well defending WRs.

As far as how the game will go it is impossible to say (but i like the Pats to win). It really all depends on Gurley. I hate to put it on one guy but that is just how important he is for their match up. RBs who can catch have always been an issue for the Patriots. It was against KC and frankly he was half the pass catcher Hunt was.

The good news is if worse comes to worse I think we can out score them.

 

[Dorito Dink]

Here is some interesting things Schlereth said when he was guest on the garbage show "First Things First". But bear with me he actually came with an interesting viewpoint about BB teams having issues with the Shanahan zone running scheme that is not hot takey at all.

I am surprised it didn't blow the heads of Wright and Carter.



Really good stuff about the run scheme.

Is there anything more annoying than some blowhard who knows nothing, looking at you Nick Wright, spouting off a couple general/cliche statements and acting like he contributed to the conversation? According to Nick Wright, all Wade Phillips has ever wanted is “two good cover guys who he can put on an island and two guys who can get after the QB with no blitzing.” I mean, no effing sh*t Sherlock. What a genius formula, no way the 31 other DC’s don’t want the same thing! You’re definitely onto something!

Not sure who is a worse personality and a more punchable face: Kellerman or Wright.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Is there anything more annoying than some blowhard who knows nothing, looking at you Nick Wright, spouting off a couple general/cliche statements and acting like he contributed to the conversation? According to Nick Wright, all Wade Phillips has ever wanted is “two good cover guys who he can put on an island and two guys who can get after the QB with no blitzing.” I mean, no effing sh*t Sherlock. What a genius formula, no way the 31 other DC’s don’t want the same thing! You’re definitely onto something!

Not sure who is a worse personality and a more punchable face: Kellerman or Wright.

I hate most analysts on TV because a lot of them have never played professional football. What gives Nick Wright or Max Kellerman the authority to tell us how the super bowl is going to go? Both of them look like they spent their high school days stuffed inside of a locker, yet they know how to stop Tom Brady? I want to hear from ex-players, coaches, and scouts.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Very nice overview with some love for the Patriots defense:

Film Room: Goff vs. Patriots | Football Outsiders

 

[PatriotReign]

Is anyone concerned that the defense gave up 24 points in 12 minutes? They held up early and while their were some bad calls they started to get picked apart.

 

[venecol]

Hopefully it goes like the Sox run did. Beat the Yankees and Astros without too much difficulty and the World Series was more of the same. I’ll take that.

Seems incredible it was just 3 months ago we were celebrating a World Series victory. We're so f*kin blessed.

 

[PP2]