SD @ NE pre-game analysis

[Hyped]

If Gronk is less than 100%, James is definitely going to take him out of the game. James limited Kelce to two yards in the KC game, IIRC.

I think it is the secondary receivers, Hogan, Dorsett, Patterson that have to have a big game (pending the weather) if we are to have any success. My money is on Dorsett- he's been very little used, but has proven to be very dependable. Could be his coming out party as we generally go with a completely different script in the playoffs.

Even then, I like James being devoted to Gronk. Can only help elsewhere.

And yup, we need big games from Dorsett....who BTW has been absolutely reliable in all of his limited targets (I think no drops since week 8 or something....16/16?).

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Interesting to see how the Chiefs attacked that defense.




One thing that stands out is that the Chargers defense is extremely aggressive and prone to over pursuing. Yes, they're fast and physical, but misdirection and screens seem to gash them regularly.

 

[Quest4SevenHomie]

I called this matchup a week ago. Either way, I hope we don't see Rex Burkhead on 3rd & longs on every damn running play. That kind of playcalling has NOT worked.

 

[Triumph]

KC sports radio guy is bragging this afternoon that he gets to announce the Chargers vs Chiefs game next weekend. Frank Boal. I call him Boll Weevil.

I will put the podcast up when its available.

<iframe src="https://omny.fm/shows/between-the-lines/btl-frank-boa-9fb3d3c9-962a-424f-874e-a27151cf50b3/embed" width="100%" height="180px" frameborder="0"></iframe>

 

[WaterfallJumper]

As many of us expected, Anderson is replacing Hollister. Let's see if that adds a dimension to the passing game -- although I am not sure he'll be active for Sunday.

Patriots Make A Series of Roster Transactions

 

[PP2]

I called this matchup a week ago. Either way, I hope we don't see Rex Burkhead on 3rd & longs on every damn running play. That kind of playcalling has NOT worked.

No hot takes in here, please.

 

[PP2]

 

[supafly]

An experienced QB and big, physical WRs are not a good matchup. As you show here, Rivers buys enough time on his dropback but still gets the ball out quickly enough and Allen is able to utilize his speed, talent, and route running to make the play. Great job by both, who are great at what they do.

 

[Triumph]

An experienced QB and big, physical WRs are not a good matchup. As you show here, Rivers buys enough time on his dropback but still gets the ball out quickly enough and Allen is able to utilize his speed, talent, and route running to make the play. Great job by both, who are great at what they do.

If the DB turns his head, he has a very good chance to break up the pass.

These are the types of plays that the Pats need to come out on top on.

 

[PP2]

An experienced QB and big, physical WRs are not a good matchup. As you show here, Rivers buys enough time on his dropback but still gets the ball out quickly enough and Allen is able to utilize his speed, talent, and route running to make the play. Great job by both, who are great at what they do.

This is why I think we will not see so much blitzing as the Ravens brought, and you can bet this will drive fans crazy.

 

[luuked]

This is why I think we will not see so much blitzing as the Ravens brought, and you can bet this will drive fans crazy.

Ninkovich said exactly the same thing on the ExPats podcast. You don't want to blitz a veteran QB who can read it all and do the right checks. That is playing with fire.

Expecting a lot of switching up in terms of coverages, level of aggression and also personnel. I have a feeling -- similar to 2014 -- this game will be tougher than the AFCCG.

 

[Kontradiction]

Yeah I agree. I would think C3 in any amount of volume would be suicide. Man and pressure up the middle.

How good are their DBs? I think it's safe to think they won't try to roll with 7 DBs like last week. Can Brady find a weakness in man coverage and exploit a matchup?

Their DBs are all very good. They're capable of taking Gronk and Edelman out of the game one on one. I wouldn't expect 7 DBs, but they've used dime packages more than any defense in the NFL, so I would expect a lot of that. The weaknesses will probably come from matching up with Burkhead, White, and (if they give him a sniff in the passing game/trust him in pass pro) possibly Michel. That said, they could also mix up their personnel depending on match-ups in this game and key on our backs.

 

[primetime]

As many of us expected, Anderson is replacing Hollister. Let's see if that adds a dimension to the passing game -- although I am not sure he'll be active for Sunday.

Patriots Make A Series of Roster Transactions

He's been with the team long enough that his integration should be seamless. I liked him at Cal and he flashed with the Texans, so it would be nice to see him emerge as a playoff hero.

The Chargers really have put together an ideal modern defense. A superstar defensive end in Bosa and another guy a half-step down in Ingram, good boundary corners, and a tremendous do-it-all STAR guy in James. It's really no surprise a rookie struggled to move the ball last week, regardless of what you think of Lamar Jackson as a player (I think he's promising but he certainly did not look good last week). Yards aren't going to come easy. If they go with a no linebacker defense, the offensive line is going to have to be ready to make them pay. That's where this game is going to come down to, I think. Brown and Cannon vs. Bosa and Ingram.

 

[Kontradiction]

He's been with the team long enough that his integration should be seamless. I liked him at Cal and he flashed with the Texans, so it would be nice to see him emerge as a playoff hero.

The Chargers really have put together an ideal modern defense. A superstar defensive end in Bosa and another guy a half-step down in Ingram, good boundary corners, and a tremendous do-it-all STAR guy in James. It's really no surprise a rookie struggled to move the ball last week, regardless of what you think of Lamar Jackson as a player (I think he's promising but he certainly did not look good last week). Yards aren't going to come easy. If they go with a no linebacker defense, the offensive line is going to have to be ready to make them pay. That's where this game is going to come down to, I think. Brown and Cannon vs. Bosa and Ingram.

I'm wondering how often they will shift Bosa and Ingram inside on obvious passing situations to try to bring pressure in Brady's face up the A and B gaps. It would be a smart move on 3rd and long but not so smart on early downs since the Patriots would just audible and run it over. I wouldn't be surprised if we see that quite a bit on Sunday.

 

[slash83]

We should win.

 

[mosi]

This smells like a James White/Burkhead type of game honestly to me. Quick passes and bubble screens to combat that quick pass rush the Chargers have.

Those two had 12 receptions on 13 targets last year when these two teams met. Can see that happening again.

 

[jmt57]

I just wanted to say thanks to @PP2 , @luuked , @long distance , @KontradictioN , @Oswlek , @Deus Irae and many, many others for the great insight on this year's pre-game X's & O's threads and post-game rewatch threads.

Both discussions, along with Idle Thoughts from @patfanken have been weekly must-read threads all season. Thanks to all for making the time to share your knowledge and opinions.

 

[venecol]

Their DBs are all very good. They're capable of taking Gronk and Edelman out of the game one on one. I wouldn't expect 7 DBs, but they've used dime packages more than any defense in the NFL, so I would expect a lot of that. The weaknesses will probably come from matching up with Burkhead, White, and (if they give him a sniff in the passing game/trust him in pass pro) possibly Michel. That said, they could also mix up their personnel depending on match-ups in this game and key on our backs.

I read somewhere their DBs were good outside the numbers but not so much inside the numbers.

 

[Tony2046]

I don't think they will. At least not for long. I think we'll see a heavy amount of man under as they’ll concentrate on trying to choke off everything underneath and take their chances on not being beaten deep.

Agree. Keep the ball in Brady's hands as long as possible to allow more time to get pressure.

 

[Ross12]

If Gronk is less than 100%, James is definitely going to take him out of the game. James limited Kelce to two yards in the KC game, IIRC.

I think it is the secondary receivers, Hogan, Dorsett, Patterson that have to have a big game (pending the weather) if we are to have any success. My money is on Dorsett- he's been very little used, but has proven to be very dependable. Could be his coming out party as we generally go with a completely different script in the playoffs.

Yeah I have been pulling to see a little more Dorsett for a couple of weeks now. I’m hopeful they may have been “saving” him for the playoffs to then use in a somewhat Playoff Amendola-like capacity - nothing likely too flashy, but dependable clutch plays that are necessary to move the chains. He was rarely used but then got some reps at the end of the year so it’s possible. May have just been due to Gordon’s absence too though. I doubt LA has spent much time at all planning for Dorsett and he can be a very solid piece, I think.