SD @ NE pre-game analysis

[PP2]

Strictly X's and O's, no hot takes or predictions please. There's a thread for that, and another thread for the weather.

 

[PP2]

I honestly do not envision Gus Bradley just rolling over and letting our RBs run all over. He is going to have something ready for Sunday afternoon.

 

[Kontradiction]

I think that the best previous Chargers/Patriots tape to review, defensively, will be the one from 2014. That was the game where the Patriots made heavy use of stunts and twists up front and had their backers shooting the A and B gaps to get pressure in Rivers’ face.

 

[PP2]

Digging into biggest matchups of Pats-Bolts

 

[Steve102]

If they run C3 then Gronk will look like Gronk again up the seam. If they shade the safety over the top, then Edelman/Hogan/Dorsett will look real good on deep comebacks and option routes. If they manage to cover 4 verts, then James White will go off in check downs and wheel routes. Seems pretty simple to me... Don't play C3 vs NE. I'd play man and find a way to get in Brady's face. I hope they go C3, I really do.

 

[patsinthesnow]

I am not trying to jinx anything on the defensive side of the ball but does anyone else feel pretty good about our CB matchups?

Keenan Allen - Stephon Gilmore

The elite technician WR1 vs. an All-Pro. Should be a good battle back and forth. Gilmore’s played at a high level vs. these type of WRs this year (Adams, Brown, Hopkins). When Gilmore’s had an off game during his time with the Pats, it’s usually vs. the big physically gifted WR (M. Bryant, Benjamin, Davis).

Mike Williams - JC Jackson

A physically gifted massive WR that is an elite red zone threat & vertical player (15.4ypc & 10 TDs) with what seems to be a limited route tree in his career vs. a physical press CB with great deep speed. On 14
targets over 20 yards, Jackson has given up 1 reception and a 0.0 passer rating.

Tyrell Williams - Jason McCourty

A tall support WR with deep speed for the big play vs. a speedy, less physical veteran CB. This matchup is important as McCourty has been up and down with these type of WRs, most notably Kenny Stills. It’s tough to see 5’9” Jonathan Jones as an option for 6’4” Tyrell Williams.


Considering Rivers is a pocket passer as well as the Chargers’ OL struggles vs. the blitz, I could see one of the more aggressive gameplans of the year on D sunday.

 

[Sciz]

I am not trying to jinx anything on the defensive side of the ball but does anyone else feel pretty good about our CB matchups?

Keenan Allen - Stephon Gilmore

The elite technician WR1 vs. an All-Pro. Should be a good battle back and forth. Gilmore’s played at a high level vs. these type of WRs this year (Adams, Brown, Hopkins). When Gilmore’s had an off game during his time with the Pats, it’s usually vs. the big physically gifted WR (M. Bryant, Benjamin, Davis).

Mike Williams - JC Jackson

A physically gifted massive WR that is an elite red zone threat & vertical player (15.4ypc & 10 TDs) with what seems to be a limited route tree in his career vs. a physical press CB with great deep speed. On 14
targets over 20 yards, Jackson has given up 1 reception and a 0.0 passer rating.

Tyrell Williams - Jason McCourty

A tall support WR with deep speed for the big play vs. a speedy, less physical veteran CB. This matchup is important as McCourty has been up and down with these type of WRs, most notably Kenny Stills. It’s tough to see 5’9” Jonathan Jones as an option for 6’4” Tyrell Williams.


Considering Rivers is a pocket passer as well as the Chargers’ OL struggles vs. the blitz, I could see one of the more aggressive gameplans of the year on D sunday.

Williams has a full 6 inches of height advantage over Jackson, which is less than ideal.

 

[turkeyneck]

SD? Heh. I keep doing it too. LAC is the Clippers to me.

 

[Joey007]

I notice everyone keeps calling them SD still.

Think at this point it’s just intentional, though I get it. LAC just doesn’t sound right at all.

 

[Kontradiction]

If they run C3 then Gronk will look like Gronk again up the seam. If they shade the safety over the top, then Edelman/Hogan/Dorsett will look real good on deep comebacks and option routes. If they manage to cover 4 verts, then James White will go off in check downs and wheel routes. Seems pretty simple to me... Don't play C3 vs NE. I'd play man and find a way to get in Brady's face. I hope they go C3, I really do.

I don't think they will. At least not for long. I think we'll see a heavy amount of man under as they’ll concentrate on trying to choke off everything underneath and take their chances on not being beaten deep.

 

[VrabelJr]

Hightower needs to have his best game of the year. Someone mentioned the 2014 game, that was arguably Jamie Collins best game ever.

Rivers loves tall WRs and their GM seems to have gotten him some more. Our CBs are playing incredibly well but our Safeties are going to need to help out over the top frequently. The height mismatch in some of the matchups is too much. A lot of Safety help could negatively impact our run defense even more, which is why our LBs and DL need to come up huge.

I don't expect any Cover 3 from the Chargers. That's a great way for Gronk and Edelman to have huge games. They're going to make us beat them with Patterson, Hogan, and Dorsett. It just makes sense. The weakness of this Chargers defense is definitely the LBs. While everyone is talking about the Chargers 7 DBs, I think that was sometimes out of necessity. With Gronk, Develin, and possibly Allen in the game they can't put two Safeties at LB and we can try and use some hurry up to keep that mismatch on the field. Bonus points if Michel, Develin, or Allen make a catch.

 

[Steve102]

I don't think they will. At least not for long. I think we'll see a heavy amount of man under as they’ll concentrate on trying to choke off everything underneath and take their chances on not being beaten deep.

Yeah I agree. I would think C3 in any amount of volume would be suicide. Man and pressure up the middle.

How good are their DBs? I think it's safe to think they won't try to roll with 7 DBs like last week. Can Brady find a weakness in man coverage and exploit a matchup?

 

[VrabelJr]

One last thought: I expect both teams to have several game plans that get thrown out based on the 1st quarter. Starting fast is going to be critical to the outcome of this game. If either team leaves the 1st quarter with a 10 point lead, I expect that team to win the game. Gus Bradley isn't an idiot. If his defense can play with a lead he's going to force us into looks that we can't score quickly with and LAC will be happy in a close, low scoring (that means less than 20 points for either team in 2019 heh) game.

 

[patriot1136]

What about the potential weather factor? That may push us into a more run-heavy offensive gameplan

 

[PP2]

If they run C3 then Gronk will look like Gronk again up the seam. If they shade the safety over the top, then Edelman/Hogan/Dorsett will look real good on deep comebacks and option routes. If they manage to cover 4 verts, then James White will go off in check downs and wheel routes. Seems pretty simple to me... Don't play C3 vs NE. I'd play man and find a way to get in Brady's face. I hope they go C3, I really do.

If Gronk is less than 100%, James is definitely going to take him out of the game. James limited Kelce to two yards in the KC game, IIRC.

I think it is the secondary receivers, Hogan, Dorsett, Patterson that have to have a big game (pending the weather) if we are to have any success. My money is on Dorsett- he's been very little used, but has proven to be very dependable. Could be his coming out party as we generally go with a completely different script in the playoffs.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

A reminder that the NE defense has been pretty good about turning the ball over this year -- something that seemed missing last year. Our first and last defensive snaps were turnovers, in fact! Check out this fun video (you'll need to go to YouTube to watch).

 

[Kid~Brady]

This smells like a James White/Burkhead type of game honestly to me. Quick passes and bubble screens to combat that quick pass rush the Chargers have.

 

[SammyBlueCat]

If Gronk is less than 100%, James is definitely going to take him out of the game. James limited Kelce to two yards in the KC game, IIRC.

I think it is the secondary receivers, Hogan, Dorsett, Patterson that have to have a big game (pending the weather) if we are to have any success. My money is on Dorsett- he's been very little used, but has proven to be very dependable. Could be his coming out party as we generally go with a completely different script in the playoffs.

You stole my thought.
For us to win Hogan, Dorsett, & Patterson must contribute. They do not have to set the world on fire but they must contribute.

 

[luuked]

I think it is the secondary receivers, Hogan, Dorsett, Patterson that have to have a big game (pending the weather) if we are to have any success. My money is on Dorsett- he's been very little used, but has proven to be very dependable. Could be his coming out party as we generally go with a completely different script in the playoffs.

Dorsett also has the necessary speed to take the top off defenses so really anything is possible with him. From remaining a complimentary 15 snap guy to becoming a playoff hero like Dola.

If the Chargers really play a lot of under and flood the intermediate then he would be the one I would send off into the deeper areas with Hogan doing the same on the other side of the field.

 

[Hyped]

What about the potential weather factor? That may push us into a more run-heavy offensive gameplan

The weather...especially snow...favors the passing game more, IMO. It slows down the pass rush (slippery), the corners can't stick with receivers when they cut (if the receivers wear longer spikes on their cleats), and then there's tackling.

Whereas with the running game, we would have to rely on our OL-men's footing...and the ball carrier to secure the ball...as well as the tricky hand offs of a potentially wet ball...