Patriots / Brady Discussion

[luuked]

Keeping in mind that Neal went down during the game and that Brady had a badly injured foot.

The one thing I thought at the time -- though I have never, ever gone back and looked it again -- is that they could have done more with screens and underneath stuff to try to slow down the pass rush.

See that is a conversation that I dont want to have anymore because it has been 10 years but at least it is reasonable. And I am not surprised that you are a poster who can actually create a very reasonable discussion.

The guy I directed my question towards I dont think he knows much about football but read a few times in articles that playcalling was not good and so it became his go-to.

 

[maineman209]

Just a thought on the topic.

What isn't being mentioned is that the Pats were in a pretty massive rebuild cycle during the 2010-12 seasons. Most good teams slip back to 8-8, 7-9 seasons for a few seasons between eras. the Pats rebuild and KEEP winning, which is something that we shouldn't take for granted.

We are in the process of watching our entire front 7 on defense get rebuilt. Back in 2014-16 we watched the OL go through a massive rebuilt (4 of 5)...and we still kept winning. This year the RB position got a huge infusion of different talent, and for the Jets game 3 of the 4 WR's (Cooks, Britt, and Dorsett) and 2 of the 3 TE's (Allen and Hollister) were all in their first year with the Pats (and we didn't even throw the ball at Gronk. )

Our down years are seasons that most fans would be grateful for. Just look at the joy Bills fans had from their 9-7 team.

There were also major transitions occurring for both the front and back ends of the defense during that time. The trade of Seymour at the start of 2009 was the very beginning of a transition from a base 3-4 to the hybrid 4-3/3-4 that continued apace in 2010 (Dean Pees resigned at the end of the 2009 season). Then, in 2011, they began a rapid transition from zone-read based coverage schemes to man/press-man. That transition that was implemented with Josh Boyer as CB Coach and Matt Patricia as Safeties Coach (who became DC the following season) .

One of the consequences of this zone>man transition was the difficulty McCourty had in making it. He was an elite zone CB, but had little or no experience with man coverage techniques. While he did get better over the course of that 2011 season (and is much better now), moving him to deep safety (essentially a zone-read job, regardless of scheme) actually optimized his athleticism and his elite football IQ.

 

[RobertWeathers]

We've seen this before. This is what the team does when it's a weaker defense. The question then becomes whether or not the better teams in the playoffs can exploit that weaker defense. We then see that the concept of GTFB leads to a lot more deep dropping and less aggressive play than we get with the years that they have better defenses.

What's a little bit difference this year is where the main weakness is. In the past, the weakest area has generally been the secondary. This year, the weakest area is DE/LB, although there have also been all too many lapses among the DBs.

Interesting numbers...

In 2017 they allowed a 20+yrd pass gain every 12.04 drop backs and a 40+yrd pass gain every 59 attempts.

In 2016 it was 11.25 and 119

In 2017 they allowed a 20+ yard running play every 35 carries and a 40+yd carry every 195 carries

In 2016 it was 184 and 368. #1 in the league. Thats incredible.

Needless to say, 2017 gives up more big plays

What I don't know is what those numbers look like after Week 6.

So....magic sauce is set the edge and GTFB

 

[luuked]

And there's another way that yards allowed matters -- it affects the starting field position for the offense.

So there's a balance there of stopping scores, yards allowed, and what your offense can handle.

To take an admittedly silly, extreme case, if I had the choice between a defense that allowed 15ppg but because of the yardage they gave up had their offense averaging starting at its own 5 and a defense that allowed 17ppg but gave up fewer yards and so let the offense start at its own 30 on average, I'd take the latter.

Chatham goes into that in his recent podcast. The entire point is that the reason BB and MP can be more conservative on early downs that are on the other side of the field is because they know they have an offense who has the ability and horsepower to drive over the entire field.

The argument never was that what BB and MP are doing is the only way to be successful but that it is just another way to defend in the NFL. It is just that the media and advanced-metrics guys just can't grasp the idea that not all yards have the same value.

 

[Deus Irae]

Interesting numbers...

In 2017 they allowed a 20+yrd pass gain every 12.04 drop backs and a 40+yrd pass gain every 59 attempts.

In 2016 it was 11.25 and 119

In 2017 they allowed a 20+ yard running play every 35 carries and a 40+yd carry every 195 carries

In 2016 it was 184 and 368. #1 in the league. Thats incredible.

Needless to say, 2017 gives up more big plays

What I don't know is what those numbers look like after Week 6.

So....magic sauce is set the edge and GTFB

I think we can clearly see that BB was counting heavily on Branch and Hightower staying healthy and playing well, and he certainly wasn't banking on both Branch and Valentine being on the shelf for a lot of the year. He may also have been counting on Harris having more speed than he's got left, with the result that he didn't do enough to find more ILB help in the offseason. But, regardless of how they got to where they are, this team's defense is vulnerable against the run, and in the short/middle passing game, and that's the sort of thing the better QBs will try to exploit.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I think we can clearly see that BB was counting heavily on Branch and Hightower staying healthy and playing well, and he certainly wasn't banking on both Branch and Valentine being on the shelf for a lot of the year. He may also have been counting on Harris having more speed than he's got left, with the result that he didn't do enough to find more ILB help in the offseason. But, regardless of how they got to where they are, this team's defense is vulnerable against the run, and in the short/middle passing game, and that's the sort of thing the better QBs will try to exploit.

Yep.

It'll be the better offense that brings this team down. Not a JAX or MN type.

 

[Chris Stevenson]

There were also major transitions occurring for both the front and back ends of the defense during that time. The trade of Seymour at the start of 2009 was the very beginning of a transition from a base 3-4 to the hybrid 4-3/3-4 that continued apace in 2010 (Dean Pees resigned at the end of the 2009 season). Then, in 2011, they began a rapid transition from zone-read based coverage schemes to man/press-man. That transition that was implemented with Josh Boyer as CB Coach and Matt Patricia as Safeties Coach (who became DC the following season) .

One of the consequences of this zone>man transition was the difficulty McCourty had in making it. He was an elite zone CB, but had little or no experience with man coverage techniques. While he did get better over the course of that 2011 season (and is much better now), moving him to deep safety (essentially a zone-read job, regardless of scheme) actually optimized his athleticism and his elite football IQ.

Yep. But, that Seymour trade, while it affecting 2010 negatively a bit, it was still the right move by a mile.

His play dipped in Oakland, outplayed by Tommy Kelly.

Voila, her comes Kelly in 2013 who had an awesome start to that year.

Too bad Hicks didn't want to stay. He is an ideal 3/4 DE player. His rap was always motivation so I think he chose Chicago to cost and just collect his paycheck on his own terms. BB tried to counter, but it was too late. Probably for the best, now that I think about it.

 

[Chris Stevenson]

And there's another way that yards allowed matters -- it affects the starting field position for the offense.

So there's a balance there of stopping scores, yards allowed, and what your offense can handle.

To take an admittedly silly, extreme case, if I had the choice between a defense that allowed 15ppg but because of the yardage they gave up had their offense averaging starting at its own 5 and a defense that allowed 17ppg but gave up fewer yards and so let the offense start at its own 30 on average, I'd take the latter.

It certainly matters, but this isn't 1950 anymore. TOP is the key figure with yards allowed, but it has little to do with the offense not being prepared on their own drives and going 3 and out all the time, losing field over and over for an entire quarter at times.

Even if they just move it a little and allow Allen to do his thing, it can be seen as a success and helping the D out a bit. It's an offensive league, so defenses are already behind the 8 ball.

 

[The Brandon Five]

And there's another way that yards allowed matters -- it affects the starting field position for the offense.

So there's a balance there of stopping scores, yards allowed, and what your offense can handle.

To take an admittedly silly, extreme case, if I had the choice between a defense that allowed 15ppg but because of the yardage they gave up had their offense averaging starting at its own 5 and a defense that allowed 17ppg but gave up fewer yards and so let the offense start at its own 30 on average, I'd take the latter.

Pats have been middle-of the road in that regard this year.



Interesting that the best team on that list got taken out by the next-to-last team on the list mostly due to ST play. Of the remaining teams in the playoffs Philly is the top and Atlanta is far-and-away the bottom while Tenn and NE are neck-and-neck, as are Jax/Pitt and NO/Minn.

 

[The Brandon Five]

On the other side of the coin, NE are the top dogs in setting up the defense for success (thanks to Gost, Allen, Slater, etc), and an offense that rarely fails to move ball at all.

 

[maineman209]

I know, I listened to the pod. I just was wondering whether there is a disparity between ordinal ranking and real numbers, and whether a few extra attempts might move NE closer to the top than you might expect.

I also don't think it is fair to say NE would be a clear #1 if they are a BBDB, since there are clearly other defenses that are just bad which would be higher anyway.

Personally, I find his arguments about asset usage to be far more compelling that the FG or points allowed comps.

Rankings are horribly abused.

Let's say that a defense is ranked 18th in the league in 3rd-down conversions allowed at 38.3%. What that doesn't tell you is that maybe the next four teams above them allowed 38.1%, with the next six above that allowing 36.9% to 37.9%. IOW, the actual difference between an 18th place ranking and an 8th place ranking may be statistically negligible.

Even the percentage of 3rd-down conversions allowed, taken by itself, can be misleading. For example ...

Team A: 37.9% of 3rd downs converted on 200 attempts
Team B: 36.1% of 3rd downs converted on 200 attempts

However, Team B's defense allowed 352 total first downs while Team A's defense allowed only 288 (four fewer per game). So, team B's defense was marginally better at getting stops on 3rd down, but they were also relatively poor at preventing opponents from getting 1st downs on 1st and 2nd down plays.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

I was surprised by such a comment as well. I have never been able to figure out why when Brady plays poorly, the fans ignore it and look to scapegoat elsewhere.

Honestly, the best draft pick BB ever had the last 7 or 8 years, minus the Gronk pick, was the JimmyG pick. Brady got hungrier from 2014 through, now than I'd ever seen him since the Weis years.Brady knew JImmyG was good and so did BB.

Not an accident, Brady has had better postseasons since. I expect it to continue.

BB should shoulder some of the blame for sure, but the amount of blame to him is ridiculous. He can't throw it, catch or run.

All right, since you're new, I don't want you to feel like we're ganging up on you. I wanted to give you the courtesy of a full response. This post also includes @Pats1989 and his comments about a "hot seat" for our esteemed HC/GM/HoF legend, BB. I'm not trying to attack either of you, but I do want to show that pointing the finger at coaching can't be substantiated. In a second post, when I have more time later today, I also want to clear up some serious misconceptions re: the draft that I see parroted all too often.

I should mention that Belichick has reiterated numerous times that players win games, and coaches lose them. Call it a tired old bromide, but I believe Bill truly believes in this dynamic. As such, some criticism is expected and, to a certain extent, warranted; I believe that he self-scouts, however, and is even more eager to make these corrections than the fans might be. That rare property alone is enough reason to retain his services, in my opinion, but I'll get to that later.

Do you remember Belichick's comments after the deflategate debacle, regarding Brady and his work ethic? I'll copy a portion here, just in case anyone missed it, because it's remarkable:

"With all due respect, I think it's really inappropriate to suggest that in Tom's career that he has been anything other than a great teammate, a great worker, and has given us every single ounce of effort, blood, sweat, and tears, that he has in him. To insinuate that this year was somehow different, that this year he competed harder or did anything to a higher degree than ever has in the past, I think is insulting to the tremendous effort, and leadership, and competitiveness that he has shown for the 17 years that I have coached him. He has been like that every year, every day, every week, every practice. I don't care if it is in May, August, or January. Tom Brady gives us his best every time he steps onto the field."

I believe this is accurate. Brady is a fierce and unrelenting competitor who is self-motivated. He doesn't need a rookie QB to make him "hungrier" than he already is -- that's primarily why I clicked disagree with your post. It's just disrespectful to the type of preparation and practice that Brady puts in, and has consistently modeled over his entire career. I find it a ludicrous and indefensible position to argue.

The same reasoning applies to Belichick. To somehow suggest that he was flagging in his efforts and has sharpened his game just because he got excited over a rookie seems quite a stretch.

Playoff drought?

Let's examine the claim of underperforming in the playoffs. While I agree that anything short of a championship is a disappointing season, I vehemently disagree that Belichick deserved to be on the hot seat.

2005: After three rings in four years, the Patriots went 1-1 in the playoffs. Remember that both coordinators left. Bruschi dealt with the stroke, Harrison was out due to injury. The core of the team blew up a bit. Etc. No reason to replace the coach.

2006: The infamous collapse against the Colts in the AFC Championship game. Considering that Reche Caldwell was the leading receiver that year, it's a wonder what Brady and Belichick accomplished. This game has been rehashed a million times by analysts more worthy than I am, so I'll sigh sadly and move on. But, again, no reason to consider the head coach on a hot seat. We were a few plays away from another Super Bowl berth, but they made a few more plays than we did. C'est la vie.

2007: The undefeated season. Hard to complain about the coaching with 16-0 and a Super Bowl appearance. We all know the heartbreak of the outcome, but if any number of plays had gone slightly differently, then the 2007 team would go down in history as the greatest of all time. Once again, no reason to consider BB on the hot seat.

2008: Brady down in the 1st quarter of the 1st game. Somehow, Belichick manages to take a quarterback who was a backup in college, and achieve a record of 11-5. Due to historic quirks in tiebreakers, the Patriots missed the playoffs with 11 wins. One of the finer coaching jobs we've seen, given the drop off at quarterback. Even considering a coaching change after this season would be ridiculous.

2009: Major turnover in the front office and coaching staffs. Seymour worked his way out of town. Retirements and personnel departures hit the team hard. The Ravens jumped out to an early lead and never looked back. The team largely regained equilibrium after the 1st quarter (outscored them 14 - 9 in the final three quarters), but the damage had been done. Only an impatient owner would even consider firing a coach after this season.

2010: MVP season for Brady. Best record in the league. New NFL record for fewest turnovers in a season. Etc. We all know what went wrong against the Jets, but it's still difficult to pin that on the coaches. I'd like to remind everyone that this was a one-score loss -- not that we get style points for close games, but rather that it wasn't a total collapse like the 45-3 game against the Jets earlier that same year. Belichick's coaching wasn't even close to the biggest problem in this game, so again I find it strange to consider him on a "hot seat" of any kind after this season.

2011: Another Super Bowl appearance. The Patriots probably should have won this game, but the Giants managed to make a couple really nice plays. So it goes. Difficult to justify a coaching change after a heartbreaking loss in the big game.

Besides, how do you coach against this?

https://images.rapgenius.com/d311cf8eae4a380005cf97edce5e6bb8.640x360x50.gif


2012 & 2013: I'm getting tired rehashing history now. 2012 was a record setting offense. Somehow, they lost the AFC Championship after leading at halftime against the Ravens. So it goes. 2013 featured another loss in the AFC Championship game. Again, it's heartbreaking as a fan, but if a coach reaches the AFC Championship game in back to back years, and has a history of sustained success, you don't move on in hopes that it just might result in a Super Bowl championship.

Of course, the commitment to Belichick paid off in 2014, with another SB win -- this one highlighted by an incredible defensive play that only occured due to the diligence of the coaches in scouting plays and preparing their players. While the team was badly injured in 2015 and dropped another AFC Championship game (see a trend? even in down years the team goes deep into the playoffs), they returned to the top in 2016 with another incredible win, which was once again fueled by strong preparation and coaching adjustments.

In the end, I simply don't find any evidence that the Belichick should ever have been a candidate for replacement. Elite head coaches are simply not fungible. The assertion is more than a bit ridiculous, but I'll try to abide by @Ian's new rules and not insult you.

All right, I will address the next topic in a bit, because it's one that I get far more excited about. Tune in next time for:

Draft problems! BB the GM is killing BB the HC! and other hawt taeks

 

[maineman209]

Correct. Well, to Cooks. Cooks is the Jerry Rice of this offense, and no, I am not comparing Cooks to Rice.

The West Coast included timely deep balls from Montana. Key word there is "timely". McDaniels is no Bill Walsh, that is for sure. IMO, McDaniels is calling way too many deep plays, which has been tied to the amount of hits Brady has taken.

I hear that a lot - "McD calls this too much", or "McD doesn't call that often enough". The simple, practical reality is that McD is limited to calling the plays that the players he has available to him are best able to execute. Of what benefit would it be for McD to arbitrarily call plays that the guys he has available to him can't execute well enough to be sufficiently successful?

Not every potential pass-catcher who's available for a game is going to excel equally at running every type of route at every distance. The players who, in 2016, excelled at, and who contributed the most to, the middle-distance (10-15 yards) receptions that comprised about 75% of last season's passing attack were Edelman, Mitchell and Bennett, with some help from White and Amendola.

With Bennett gone in FA (replaced by Allen), and with Edelman and Mitchell suddenly out of the picture just before the start of the regular season, Amendola became THE middle-distance receiver with Hogan leaving his 2016 deeper routes to Cooks and attempting to supplement Amendola with more middle-distance routes (Hogan's catch rate dropped significantly, btw). And then, after the first half of the season, even Hogan was unavailable.

Meanwhile, the increase in short-distance (<10yards) receiving from RBs (including White) has been even greater than the increase in deep-range (15 yards +) receiving.

... because the players who have the skills to be consistently successful running the mid-range routes simply haven't been available, but those who are best at short range and long range HAVE been available. So, middle-distance receptions this season have comprised about 25% of the passing attack.

 

[maineman209]

Pats have been middle-of the road in that regard this year.



Interesting that the best team on that list got taken out by the next-to-last team on the list mostly due to ST play. Of the remaining teams in the playoffs Philly is the top and Atlanta is far-and-away the bottom while Tenn and NE are neck-and-neck, as are Jax/Pitt and NO/Minn.

"Middle of the road" kinda depends on how you read the chart. The two at the top, with 33.0 and 32.8 are outliers. The next eleven teams are all in the 29.0 - 30.0 range. The Pats are only a half-yard outside of that group.

 

[mgteich]

Josh has done a great job this year.

I hear that a lot - "McD calls this too much", or "McD doesn't call that often enough". The simple, practical reality is that McD is limited to calling the plays that the players he has available to him are best able to execute. Of what benefit would it be for McD to arbitrarily call plays that the guys he has available to him can't execute well enough to be sufficiently successful?

 

[BradytoMosstoGronk]

Yep.

It'll be the better offense that brings this team down. Not a JAX or MN type.

Yeah, it’ll need to be a higher flying offense like... let’s go with Atlanta. Also, they’ll need to jump out to a big lead, something like 28-3.

 

[The Brandon Five]

"Middle of the road" kinda depends on how you read the chart. The two at the top, with 33.0 and 32.8 are outliers. The next eleven teams are all in the 29.0 - 30.0 range. The Pats are only a half-yard outside of that group.

It's kind of freaky how 3 of the 4 divisional matchups feature teams that have adjacent positions on that list (Saints 8/Vikes 9, Steelers 11/Jags 12, Titans 14/Pats 15).

 

[RobertWeathers]

Yeah, it’ll need to be a higher flying offense like... let’s go with Atlanta. Also, they’ll need to jump out to a big lead, something like 28-3.

I don't think thats enough....

 

[maineman209]

It's kind of freaky how 3 of the 4 divisional matchups feature teams that have adjacent positions on that list (Saints 8/Vikes 9, Steelers 11/Jags 12, Titans 14/Pats 15).

And the other is the second from the bottom (ATL) playing against the 3rd from the top (PHL). Might be something to watch for in that game - to see of ATL can consistently make PHL start drives behind their own 30 and how far behind their own 30 - and what happens on those drives.

Special teams could be key for ATL.

 

[patchick]

I think we can clearly see that BB was counting heavily on Branch and Hightower staying healthy and playing well, and he certainly wasn't banking on both Branch and Valentine being on the shelf for a lot of the year. He may also have been counting on Harris having more speed than he's got left, with the result that he didn't do enough to find more ILB help in the offseason.

An enormous amount went wrong in the front 7 this year. It's amazing to think that this team headed into training camp assuming it would have Derek Rivers, Rob Ninkovich, Donta Hightower, Vincent Valentine and Shea McClellin. Add in the games where they were missing Branch or Brown and Van Noy too, and that's essentially the entire planned front 7 out of commission.