OT-ish: The gambling thread

[fightingirish595]

The gambling thread is alive and well and I’m back with more golf picks.

A 9 unit profit had a chance to increase with a decent start at the players, but it was canceled for whatever reason. Weird. Glad I have the one thing I’m actually good at back in my hands, even though absolutely no one cares.

Charles Schwab Challenge

Outright Win bets

John Rahm risk 2 units (+1200)
Webb Simpson risk 1 unit (+2200)
Matt Kuchar risk .5 unit (+5000)
Harris English risk .25 unit (+6600)
Adam hadwin risk .15 unit (+12500)
Jim Furyk risk .15 unit (+15000)
​

First round leader

Brooks Koepka risk .5 unit (+3300)
Kevin Na risk .5 unit (+5000)​

 

[fightingirish595]

The gambling thread is alive and well and I’m back with more golf picks.

A 9 unit profit had a chance to increase with a decent start at the players, but it was canceled for whatever reason. Weird. Glad I have the one thing I’m actually good at back in my hands, even though absolutely no one cares.

Charles Schwab Challenge

Outright Win bets

John Rahm risk 2 units (+1200)
Webb Simpson risk 1 unit (+2200)
Matt Kuchar risk .5 unit (+5000)
Harris English risk .25 unit (+6600)
Adam hadwin risk .15 unit (+12500)
Jim Furyk risk .15 unit (+15000)
​

First round leader

Brooks Koepka risk .5 unit (+3300)
Kevin Na risk .5 unit (+5000)​

Down 5.05 units last week. Season total is just short of +4 units now.

RBC Heritage

Outright win bets

Bryson Dechambeu risk 1.5
Units (+1400)
Webb Simpson risk .75 units (+2800)
Sungjae Im risk .75 units (+2800)
Daniel Berger risk .75 units (+3500)
Matt Kuchar risk .5 unit (+4000)
Tyrell hatton risk .5 unit (+5500)
Harris English risk .25 units (+10000)
Brice Garnett risk .05 units (+50000)
​

Finishing Position

Webb Simpson top 20 risk 1 unit (+140)
Ian poulter top 20 risk 1 unit (+250)

***Edit: adding 3 picks***

Brice Garnett top 20 risk 1 unit (+2000)
​

First round leader

Xander Schauffele risk .5 unit(+3300)
Gary woodland risk .5 unit (+5000)
​

​

 

[supafly]

Nice stuff. Good luck with it @fightingirish595.

One of these days I’m going to have to put a few bucks on your picks.

 

[fightingirish595]

Nice stuff. Good luck with it @fightingirish595.

One of these days I’m going to have to put a few bucks on your picks.

I need to win this week or I’m probably gonna go down for the season. I usually don’t use this many players +5000 or less.

 

[fightingirish595]

Down 5.05 units last week. Season total is just short of +4 units now.

RBC Heritage

Outright win bets

Bryson Dechambeu risk 1.5
Units (+1400)
Webb Simpson risk .75 units (+2800)
Sungjae Im risk .75 units (+2800)
Daniel Berger risk .75 units (+3500)
Matt Kuchar risk .5 unit (+4000)
Tyrell hatton risk .5 unit (+5500)
Harris English risk .25 units (+10000)
Brice Garnett risk .05 units (+50000)
​

Finishing Position

Webb Simpson top 20 risk 1 unit (+140)
Ian poulter top 20 risk 1 unit (+250)

***Edit: adding 3 picks***

Brice Garnett top 20 risk 1 unit (+2000)
​

First round leader

Xander Schauffele risk .5 unit(+3300)
Gary woodland risk .5 unit (+5000)

​

Webb Simpson grabs the win at 28-1! All 3 top 20 plays hit! I calculate a 24.6 unit hit. Bringing the season total to about +28.5

 

[fightingirish595]

The PGA Hits my home state of CT this week

Travelers Championship

Outright win bets

Justin Thomas risk 2 units (+1200)
Bryson Dechambeu risk 1.75 units (+1200)
Bubba Watson risk 1 unit (+2800)
Patrick reed risk .75 units (+3500)
Brian harman risk .30 units (+8000)
Carlos Ortiz risk .15 units (+20000)
​

First Round Leader

Rory McIlroy risk .5 unit (+2500)
Bryson Dechambeu risk .5 unit (+2500)
​

Finishing Position

Paul Casey top 5 risk .5 unit (+700)
Paul Casey top 20 risk 1 unit (+150)
Brandt Snedeker top 20 risk .5 unit (+400)
Carlos Ortiz top 20 risk .5 unit (+600)
Bryson Dechambeu top 10 risk 1 unit (+125)
Tony Finau top 10 risk 1 unit (+420)

​

*EDIT* WEBB Simpson has withdrawn. Will replace with Bryson Dechambeu

I do not have access to top 30 lines. But DK is offering even money on paul Casey top 30. If times are paid in full, even money on that is easily worth a 5 unit play

EDIT 2: adding finau to finishing position (50-1 is really nice value for outright)

 

[fightingirish595]

The PGA Hits my home state of CT this week

Travelers Championship

Outright win bets

Justin Thomas risk 2 units (+1200)
Bryson Dechambeu risk 1.75 units (+1200)
Bubba Watson risk 1 unit (+2800)
Patrick reed risk .75 units (+3500)
Brian harman risk .30 units (+8000)
Carlos Ortiz risk .15 units (+20000)
​

First Round Leader

Rory McIlroy risk .5 unit (+2500)
Bryson Dechambeu risk .5 unit (+2500)

​

Finishing Position

Paul Casey top 5 risk .5 unit (+700)
Paul Casey top 20 risk 1 unit (+150)
Brandt Snedeker top 20 risk .5 unit (+400)
Carlos Ortiz top 20 risk .5 unit (+600)
Bryson Dechambeu top 10 risk 1 unit (+125)
Tony Finau top 10 risk 1 unit (+420)

​

*EDIT* WEBB Simpson has withdrawn. Will replace with Bryson Dechambeu

I do not have access to top 30 lines. But DK is offering even money on paul Casey top 30. If times are paid in full, even money on that is easily worth a 5 unit play

EDIT 2: adding finau to finishing position (50-1 is really nice value for outright)

tough week in CT losing 8.2 units. Season total +20.3 units. This week the tour heads to Detroit for the

Rocket Mortgage Classic

Outright Winner

Webb simpson risk 2 units (+4000)
Tyrell Hatton risk 1.5 units (+1400)
Sungjae Im risk 1.25 units (+2000)
Adam Hadwin risk .5 unit (+6000)
Chesson Hadley risk .15 unit (+15000)
​

First round leader

Bryson Dechambeu risk 1 unit (+1600)
Hideki Matsuyama risk .5 unit (+3300)
Scottie scheffler risk .5 unit (+4600)​

Finishing position

Chesson Hadley top 20 risk .5 unit (+650)
Adam Hadwin top 20 risk 1 unit (+225)
Sungjae Im top 20 risk 1 unit (+110)
Brandt Snedeker top 5 risk .5 unit (+800)

​

 

[fightingirish595]

tough week in CT losing 8.2 units. Season total +20.3 units. This week the tour heads to Detroit for the

Rocket Mortgage Classic

Outright Winner

Webb simpson risk 2 units (+4000)
Tyrell Hatton risk 1.5 units (+1400)
Sungjae Im risk 1.25 units (+2000)
Adam Hadwin risk .5 unit (+6000)
Chesson Hadley risk .15 unit (+15000)
​

First round leader

Bryson Dechambeu risk 1 unit (+1600)
Hideki Matsuyama risk .5 unit (+3300)
Scottie scheffler risk .5 unit (+4600)​

Finishing position

Chesson Hadley top 20 risk .5 unit (+650)
Adam Hadwin top 20 risk 1 unit (+225)
Sungjae Im top 20 risk 1 unit (+110)
Brandt Snedeker top 5 risk .5 unit (+800)

​

Another bad week. 2 in a row. Only hadwin top 20 hit. off to Ohio (muirfield) for 2 weeks. Lost 7.15. season total +13.15

Workday Charity

Outright winners

Xander Schauffele risk 2 units (+1800)
Patrick Reed risk 1 unit (+3100)
Cameron Tringale risk .2 units (+15000)
​

First round leader

Hideki Matsuyama risk .5 unit (+2800)
Justin Rose risk .5 unit (+4000)
Rickie Fowler risk .5 unit (+4000)
​

Finishing Position

Tom hoge top 20 risk .25 units (+550)
Patrick reed top 20 risk 1 unit (+150)
Adam hadwin top 20 risk .5 unit (+225)
Rickie Fowler top 20 risk 1 unit (+135)
Justin rose top 10 risk .5 unit (+225)
Matt Kuchar top 10 risk .5 unit (+330)
Hideki Matsuyama top 10 risk 1 unit (+165)
Phil Mickelson top 20 risk .5 unit (+330)
Kyle Stanley top 10 risk .5 unit (+1000)
Tringale top 20 risk .25 units (+650)


​

 

[Vatahala]

Was just checking NBA scoreboard as Celtics open tonight at 630pm as 4 1/2 underdogs at the Bucks.

It led me to wonder how the Virus will ultimately change spreads and how quicking casinos adapt.

Crowds can inspire both teams or they can intimidate them.

Over the next few months IMO I think you will have a lot more blowouts as many teams show up flat with no crowd to play off.

 

[jmt57]

Week One Odds (as of Sunday 9/6):

Texans at Chiefs (-9 ½), o/u 54
Dolphins at Patriots (-6 ½), o/u 43
Browns at Ravens (-8 ½), o/u 48 ½
Jets at Bills (-6 ½), o/u 39 ½
Raiders (-3) at Panthers, o/u 47
Seahawks (-1 ½) at Falcons, o/u 49
Eagles (-6) at Washington, o/u 43
Bears at Lions (-2 ½), o/u 44
Colts at Jaguars (-7 ½), o/u 45
Packers at Vikings (-2 ½), o/u 46
Chargers (-3 ½) at Bengals, o/u 44
Cardinals at Niners (-7), o/u 47
Buccaneers at Saints (-3 ½), o/u 49 ½
Cowboys (-3) at Rams, o/u 52
Steelers (-4 ½) at Giants, o/u 48
Titans at Broncos (-1 ½), o/u 41

 

[Brandon_Cox]

Week One Odds (as of Sunday 9/6):

Texans at Chiefs (-9 ½), o/u 54
Dolphins at Patriots (-6 ½), o/u 43
Browns at Ravens (-8 ½), o/u 48 ½
Jets at Bills (-6 ½), o/u 39 ½
Raiders (-3) at Panthers, o/u 47
Seahawks (-1 ½) at Falcons, o/u 49
Eagles (-6) at Washington, o/u 43
Bears at Lions (-2 ½), o/u 44
Colts at Jaguars (-7 ½), o/u 45
Packers at Vikings (-2 ½), o/u 46
Chargers (-3 ½) at Bengals, o/u 44
Cardinals at Niners (-7), o/u 47
Buccaneers at Saints (-3 ½), o/u 49 ½
Cowboys (-3) at Rams, o/u 52
Steelers (-4 ½) at Giants, o/u 48
Titans at Broncos (-1 ½), o/u 41

There's a part of me that says take all the unders.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Glad this is back. I still haven't pulled the trigger on anything. Usually I have 5-10 futures/props but theres so much unknown between teams, how teams will handle this year. Home field/Away. I'm dropping some thoughts in my other thread but would like to hear opinions on
Josh Allen TD 20.5
Joe Brady TD 20.5 or 21 it might have moved.
Rodgers 3880 yards
Cam Newton rushing TD 5.5
I like the over on all but Cam's rushing TD. I like it don't love it. He might be the best GL/short yardage threat we have at certain points this year?

I also like the Vikings/Giants in the NFC. I wouldn't be surprised if either made a real playoff run maybe even title game.

 

[luuked]

Cam Newton rushing TD 5.5

Given our lackluster performance in the redzone last year and all the things he opens up I think this one is almost too good to be true. I suppose you are almost betting more on whether he will stay healthy.

 

[jmt57]

2020 NFL Win Totals
Some slight variations are available to your benefit in many cases if you shop around.

11 ½ -- Chiefs
11 ½ -- Ravens
10 ½ -- Saints
10 ½ -- 49ers
10 - - - - Cowboys
9 ½ - - Buccaneers
9 ½ - - Colts
9 ½ - - Eagles
9 ½ - - Seahawks
9 ½ - - Steelers
9 - - - - Bills
9 - - - - Patriots
9 - - - - Vikings
8 ½ - - Browns
8 ½ - - Packers
8 ½ - - Rams
8 ½ - - Titans
8 - - - - Bears
8 - - - - Broncos
8 - - - - Chargers
7 ½ - - Falcons
7 ½ - - Texans
7 - - - - Cardinals
7 - - - - Raiders
6 ½ - - Dolphins
6 ½ - - Jets
6 ½ - - Lions
6 - - - - Giants
5 ½ - - Bengals
5 ½ - - Panthers
5 - - - - Washington
4 ½ - - Panthers


I like the Lions to go over. Green Bay used their first two draft picks on the future, players that will be reserves this season. Minnesota is good but not great, and Chicago arguably got worse - and named Trubisky their starting QB over Foles. The Lions were decent with Stafford, 0-8 without him at QB last year. Detroit should be able to win 7 or 8 easily as long as Stafford remains healthy. I am also thinking the Bears go under.

I have to go with the Pats under 9. They lost way too many starters/regulars, and have a QB learning a new offense without getting the benefit of OTAs, preseason games, or six months to learn the new system.

Others I am looking at are Bucs over, Texans over and Colts under.

 

[jmt57]

Early preview of the Week Two odds:

Bengals at Browns (-7 ½); 46
Rams at Eagles (-4); 48
Panthers at Bucs (-8 ½); 48 ½
Broncos at Steelers (-5 ½); 43
Falcons at Cowboys (-7); 50
49ers (-5 ½) at Jets; 43 ½
Bills (-3 ½) at Dolphins; 43
Vikings at Colts (-2 ½); 46
Lions at Packers (-5 ½); 46
Giants at Bears (-5 ½); 43
Jaguars at Titans (-11); 43
Washington at Cardinals (-6 ½); 46
Ravens (-6) at Texans; 54 ½
Chiefs (-6 ½) at Chargers; 50 ½
Patriots at Seahawks (-3 ½); 44
Saints (-4 ½) at Raiders; 50 ½

At first glance I like Seattle, San Francisco and New Orleans. Baltimore and KC are possibilities too, with crowd noise not being a factor for road teams.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Locked this in last night X2, can only hit it so much once. I'm thinking about hitting M Brown as well for the same # of yards I believe. Both of these guys are the 1A/B options. Andrews played limited snaps last year and went passed this mark by 50 yards. Supposedly he looks great, in great shape running away from anyone trying to defend him. I really think Andrews has a huge year. He's the clear cut #1 TE in an offense that almost caters to them. Should see more volume. I wouldn't be surprised to see him around 80/1020/7 with the rest of the big boys playing that position.

M Brown is healthy and I wouldn't be surprised if he's a dark horse to explode if he can stay healthy. Remember he played with a screw in his foot last year. Like Andrews has looked good and will see a ton of targets. Its all about health with him. If he's healthy I can't see him not bringing in 50-60 yards a game in year two.

TRAIGHT BET [28325] TOTAL O805½-115 (M ANDREWS - SEASON RCV YDS VRS M ANDREWS - SEASON RCV YDS) (MARK ANDREWS - TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS - 2020 NFL REGULAR SEASON - LISTED PLAYER MUST PLAY IN WEEK 1 FOR ACTION. TEAM MUST PLAY 16 REGULAR SEASON GAMES.)

288 / 250

 

[fightingirish595]

Glad this is back. I still haven't pulled the trigger on anything. Usually I have 5-10 futures/props but theres so much unknown between teams, how teams will handle this year. Home field/Away. I'm dropping some thoughts in my other thread but would like to hear opinions on
Josh Allen TD 20.5
Joe Brady TD 20.5 or 21 it might have moved.
Rodgers 3880 yards
Cam Newton rushing TD 5.5
I like the over on all but Cam's rushing TD. I like it don't love it. He might be the best GL/short yardage threat we have at certain points this year?

I also like the Vikings/Giants in the NFC. I wouldn't be surprised if either made a real playoff run maybe even title game.

Yeah? I don’t know. I follow the Giants quite a bit. Feel like they would need more than just a big leap from jones. The defense has a lot of improving to do as well. They have some guys I like but I wouldn’t be surprised if they still have a lot of problems getting to the quarterback.

 

[Vatahala]

Because of all the uncertainity would you expect the Pats line to stay under 7?

Somehow I feel Newton's good vibes amongst the locker room all week will push spread to 7 1/2 at least.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I keep forgetting this but I'm in a "loser pool" for some decent $. Hopefully 35K by Saturday. Straight forward, Pick a loser each week. Can't use the same team twice. I have 15 spots.

Any strategies or theories will be appreciated. Or just give me a loser each week.

I made it to week 10 last year and lost my last pick Tenn/KC. F'd up ending to that game I believe.

 

[jmt57]

I keep forgetting this but I'm in a "loser pool" for some decent $. Hopefully 35K by Saturday. Straight forward, Pick a loser each week. Can't use the same team twice. I have 15 spots.

Any strategies or theories will be appreciated. Or just give me a loser each week.

I made it to week 10 last year and lost my last pick Tenn/KC. F'd up ending to that game I believe.

My experience in Loser Pools is to not think too far ahead at the beginning of the season. Obviously you don't want to pick the 32nd ranked team in week one, but on the other hand you don't want to pick a team good team versus one that was in the conference championship last year either. I have been burnt by that type of strategy - holding my best cards until later - sadly more than once.