OT-ish: The gambling thread

[Brady_to_Moss]

That's steep. I took Det +3.5 @ -105. This feels like a FG game or less. Maybe we can middle it...cheers

Well you're up 13.5 right now!

 

[maust]

Spread tonight is Green Bay -3.5. Thoughts? This isn’t a HUGE confidence pick, but I definitely like GB to cover.

My thought can be found in previous posts, I've got Det +4

 

[mgcolby]

Well you're up 13.5 right now!

Well it's still Detroit and there is still a quarter left.

 

[maust]

Well it's still Detroit and there is still a quarter left.

And that right there sums up the mindset of every true degenerate, I know because I'm thinking exactly the same thing (and probably every Lions fan is as well).

 

[supafly]

So, FanDuel sportsbook pays you up to 50 dollars back if you bet a moneyline wager and your team loses by 6 points or less.

It’s a useful tool that can be used on any game, as long as you opt-in beforehand.

 

[mgcolby]

So, FanDuel sportsbook pays you up to 50 dollars back if you bet a moneyline wager and your team loses by 6 points or less.

It’s a useful tool that can be used on any game, as long as you opt-in beforehand.

How do they verify your location or must you be a resident of the state? For instance do they base your account on the geo caching of your IP?

 

[supafly]

So, FanDuel sportsbook pays you up to 50 dollars back if you bet a moneyline wager and your team loses by 6 points or less.

It’s a useful tool that can be used on any game, as long as you opt-in beforehand.

This would be useful for two different scenarios:

1) You want to take a shot on a big underdog

2) You don’t like the idea of giving -3.5 like tonight, and buying a point costs too much (again, like tonight). I tried to get it down to -2.5, but it would’ve cost -160, when the moneyline itself was -180.

 

[mgcolby]

And that right there sums up the mindset of every true degenerate, I know because I'm thinking exactly the same thing (and probably every Lions fan is as well).

Well that and Detroit loves to blow 4th qtr leads so far this year.

 

[supafly]

How do they verify your location or must you be a resident of the state? For instance do they base your account on the geo caching of your IP?

I use two different books. FanDuel has an automatic locator within the app, which makes it as easy as signing in and waiting while the “verifying location” bar loads.

I also use a local casino where you have to download and install a separate geo-locator app when prompted from the casino app. That can be a bit glitchy at times, as you have to log in/out a couple of times before it recognizes you. Most of the time it’s fine, but not always.

I’m not sure of the specific mechanism as to how it works or what it tracks, but it would have to be IP (I think).

 

[mgcolby]

I use two different books. FanDuel has an automatic locator within the app, which makes it as easy as signing in and waiting while the “verifying location” bar loads.

I also use a local casino where you have to download and install a separate geo-locator app when prompted from the casino app. That can be a bit glitchy at times, as you have to log in/out a couple of times before it recognizes you. Most of the time it’s fine, but not always.

I’m not sure of the specific mechanism as to how it works or what it tracks, but it would have to be IP (I think).

Interesting because in theory one could use a VPN to mask their IP.

 

[fightingirish595]

That's steep. I took Det +3.5 @ -105. This feels like a FG game or less. Maybe we can middle it...cheers

Ahhh middled

 

[supafly]

Interesting because in theory one could use a VPN to mask their IP.

Some of the offshore books started that KYC policy (know your customer) where they made you photocopy and fax your driver’s license prior to authorizing any payouts, and the ones in my state have the right to ask you to do that, but so far neither book has asked me.

They do require basic info like address, DOB, and SS#, but in theory it sounds like it’s possible to work around that. They send you a prepaid card that works in the Discover network if you want to use it like a credit card, but you’re able to use it at the ATM machine, assuming of course, that you’re willing to pay the small fee of 2.50 or whatever.

 

[mgcolby]

Here are the results from week 6. A damn fine week for the picker 10-4 ATS and 10-4 SU. So in the past I would call anything with a spread differential of under .5 a push. After reviewing those games over the past two weeks there are three games that fall into that category and all are losses, before updating it accordingly I thought what would be fair and I'm not totally sure. So, I was thinking if the final score of the game was within a point and the predicted spread differential was less than .5 its a push. Want to get you guys' thoughts on this. For example of the three games fitting the .5 category only one game falls into the one point final score category (Falcons/Cardinals this week differential was .19 final score 34-33)

I'll let you guys decide and update accordingly.

Week 6: 10-4 (possibly 10-3-1) ATS & 10-4 SU
Season: 18-10 ATS & 17-11 SU

 

[mgcolby]

Piggy backing on the post above here is Week 7 picks:

Note: Nothing shocking IMO, unless you are still a believer in KC. I personally felt the Chiefs would drop their 3rd in a row. Limping into Denver on a Thursday night to face a solid defense, that has improved each of the past two weeks and a running game that will likely gash the Chiefs defense.

 

[mgcolby]

I also have the record broken down this way, so if there is enough interest I can post this weekly as well.

 

[fightingirish595]

Piggy backing on the post above here is Week 7 picks:

Note: Nothing shocking IMO, unless you are still a believer in KC. I personally felt the Chiefs would drop their 3rd in a row. Limping into Denver on a Thursday night to face a solid defense, that has improved each of the past two weeks and a running game that will likely gash the Chiefs defense.

View attachment 24667

Im locked on Denver +3.5

 

[supafly]

Stumbled across this article claiming that someone keeps dropping huge bets and winning in the games that referee Clete Blakeman calls.

It should definitely be taken with a huge grain of salt since Incarcerated Bob is the main source, but it may be something to keep an eye on, just the same.

By the way, is Incarcerated Bob ever correct?

A Gambling Insider Says There's A Rumored Bettor Who Keeps Placing Huge Wagers On Games Officiated By The Crew That Screwed The Lions

 

[Vatahala]

Underdogs are 53-35-2 60.2% so far this year.
Is this the week that favorites reverse that trend?

 

[mgcolby]

So I was listening to Felger and Maz yesterday (I know, don't judge) and Jim I guess does a podcast with some dude. Anyway the guy gets in the phone and says basically ignore the spreads because they don't matter in 82% of the games and in 93% of primetime games in the NFL.

My first thought was that's preposterous, well it might not be. I went back (granted just the past two weeks, happened to have my picker printed out in front of me) and the spread has come into play in just 4 games out the 28 played in the past two weeks.

Meaning the dog covered on the points. The other 24 games either the dog won outright or the favorite covered the spread.

Just some food for thought.

 

[supafly]

So I was listening to Felger and Maz yesterday (I know, don't judge) and Jim I guess does a podcast with some dude. Anyway the guy gets in the phone and says basically ignore the spreads because they don't matter in 82% of the games and in 93% of primetime games in the NFL.

My first thought was that's preposterous, well it might not be. I went back (granted just the past two weeks, happened to have my picker printed out in front of me) and the spread has come into play in just 4 games out the 28 played in the past two weeks.

Meaning the dog covered on the points. The other 24 games either the dog won outright or the favorite covered the spread.

Just some food for thought.

There’s someone who reminds us of this every year and may be able to elaborate on the idea. I want to say that it’s @1960Pats.