OT-ish: The gambling thread

[Brandon_Cox]

I like the Heat tonight -3.5 over the Hawks.

Where are you finding value? I'm a really crappy NFL bettor and decided this year to bet a lot less and only in situations where there is serious value. The most obvious example was the Pats Steelers game. It was obvious reading this board and following the Pats beat writers through training camp that our defense was incredible, yet the over/under opened at 51.5 and closed at 49.5. I even asked in this thread "what am I missing" before I bet the snot out of the under (bankroll management be dammed). I bet the under on the next 2 games until Vegas caught up with reality on our defense.

I'm in Atlanta and bet my team Georgia Tech under 3.5 wins. They're switching from the triple option to a more conventional spread offense and have zero talent and no quarterback. I've been betting against Georgia Tech every week and they're one of only 3 teams in the country to be winless against the spread. However, after Duke beat them by 18 last week as a 17.5 favorite I decided no more, the value was officially gone.

Which brings me to my Atlanta Hawks. I follow them as closely as I follow the Pats. It was extremely obvious going into training camp that they were interested in throwing the rookies off the deep end and experimenting with all the new players. Also Kevin Huerter is out with a bum knee and they can't space the floor. Teams are blitzing Trae Young in the pick and roll and double teaming him a lot. The 3 teams they've played so far - the Pels, Magic and Heat - were way more interested in winning than the Hawks. It's been easy money; for example the Heat opened as a 3.5 favorite and closed as a 5.5 favorite. They won by 33.

The betting public is catching on; the Knicks opened as a 3.5 point dog tonight and are now a 2.5 point favorite. I'm not going to bet tonight but I'll take the Bulls tomorrow night (who schedules a back to back in the preseason?) The Hawks will rest anybody remotely important.

I still see a lot of value in betting against the Hawks going into the regular season. They have a brutal schedule to start the season and are going to lose a lot of games by a lot of points. No hero bets, just a steady amount with the hope I'll win 60% or more. If Huerter starts playing I'll be more cautious; he makes a huge difference in the way teams guard the Hawks.

One last thing: I have a few buds at our local watering hole who I run my bets by. When I told them I was betting on NBA preseason basketball they looked at me like I was insane. Hey, all the tickets cash the same. It's these obscure corners of the sporting world where you can find real value.

 

[fightingirish595]

There’s someone who reminds us of this every year and may be able to elaborate on the idea. I want to say that it’s @1960Pats.

yup it’s him. The team that covers usually wins

 

[mgcolby]

There’s someone who reminds us of this every year and may be able to elaborate on the idea. I want to say that it’s @1960Pats.

I had never heard of it and figured it was conspiracy theories, especially the way the sort of wrapped it around the NFL being in cahoots with vegas and doing enough with calls to not effect the outcome of the game but to get the desired ATS result.

I don't buy into that but after reviewing the data the past 2 weeks I buy into the numbers a bit, I am going to go back through the data I have and see if its consistent.

 

[fightingirish595]

One of my books always has the chiefs giving an extra point or 2. I already have Broncos +3.5 but This one book I have is offering +4.5. Tempting to put more

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

I have a lot riding on KC and the under. I think they are still good enough to not drop 3 in a row and I see a bounce back game ( I hope)

Not football related. But I have been on a roll with the NHL and 2-3 team parlays. Hit my last 3. A good way to get the account up.

But for me hockey is so hard and I think harder than the NFL

 

[maust]

One of my books always has the chiefs giving an extra point or 2. I already have Broncos +3.5 but This one book I have is offering +4.5. Tempting to put more

+4.5 is tempting if you like the game, I just don't. KC's defense sucks but so does Denver's offense. Denver's D is starting to hum but KC's offense is still KC's offense. Too much of it depends on the unknown variable of how mobile Mahomie is at game time. What I am seeing now is only +3 so if that number is still available and you like Denver best jump on it.

 

[maust]

I have a lot riding on KC and the under. I think they are still good enough to not drop 3 in a row and I see a bounce back game ( I hope)

Not football related. But I have been on a roll with the NHL and 2-3 team parlays. Hit my last 3. A good way to get the account up.

But for me hockey is so hard and I think harder than the NFL

Just curious, if you don't mind posting it how much on each and at what numbers?

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Just curious, if you don't mind posting it how much on each and at what numbers?

For the NHL?

I am on a plane right now and on my work laptop. Forgot my account PW and now locked out. So I contacted them to unlock it. So once I get in I can look more in depth

 

[maust]

For the NHL?

No, for KC/Denver

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

No, for KC/Denver

No, for KC/Denver

Ahh. Once i get logged back in (Hopefully soon...) i'll let you know

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Just curious, if you don't mind posting it how much on each and at what numbers?

Chiefs ML (-180) This morning it's showing -165..oh well)
Under 48.5 (-110)

$75 to win $147

(Rest of my money is on CFB and NHL tonight along with 2 parlays for Sunday's 1 PM games.)

 

[maust]

Chiefs ML (-180) This morning it's showing -165..oh well)
Under 48.5 (-110)

$75 to win $147

(Rest of my money is on CFB and NHL tonight along with 2 parlays for Sunday's 1 PM games.)

I think, perhaps because you are a more prolific bettor than I am, we define "a lot" differently. Fair to say by spreading the wealth you are probably in a better position to manage your bankroll as a result.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

I think, perhaps because you are a more prolific bettor than I am, we define "a lot" differently. Fair to say by spreading the wealth you are probably in a better position to manage your bankroll as a result.

Yeah I mean a lot on one bet for me is this. I never go over this and like you said I spread my account to cover myself or at least try

 

[fightingirish595]

Small steady gains

 

[fightingirish595]

Tossed another 110 to win 100 on the broncos. +4.5

 

[maust]

Yeah I mean a lot on one bet for me is this. I never go over this and like you said I spread my account to cover myself or at least try

It's probably readily apparent from the bets I've posted that in the average week I just don't see all that many plays I feel good about and as a result I tend to go larger on the games I do. For instance, thanks to the early line, this past week I rolled a bit more on Houston (who I loved +7.5) than I did on Seattle who I liked. Yet outside of those and the Pats game I didn't seriously pull the trigger on anything else and just tossed $50 on Det +4 based on looking to take advantage of a 'found money' week. Even though there were a couple of lines I found intriguing I couldn't get a handle on why the numbers were where they were. I seldom bet a number I don't understand, although sometimes...

 

[mgcolby]

I liked troy last night -17, but got cold feet. Dagnabbit!

 

[mgcolby]

The current spread on Bovado is Broncos +3. Thinking about taking the ML +140 given the previous spread discussion, plus I do think the Broncos win here.

Yep just talked myself into.

Just took it and the moneyline moved to +145...go me... $100 to win $145

 

[mgcolby]

So far this season (since week 3) for the weeks I have tracked (4 weeks). There have been 38 games where the Dog covered the Spread in 28 of them they won straight up. Only in 10 games has the dog covered using the points given, thats just 27% of the time.

There have been 60 games over the the 4 weeks and in just 10 of them has the spread come into play or 16.6%.

Just off small sample size, the 82% the guy on the radio cited seems to be accurate. Trying to find my previous years data, but can't find the dang folder at the moment.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

The current spread on Bovado is Broncos +3. Thinking about taking the ML +140 given the previous spread discussion, plus I do think the Broncos win here.

Yep just talked myself into.

Just took it and the moneyline moved to +145...go me...

Last week I said to myself..Cheifs would or will bounce back. And didn't.

Now that they have lost 2 in a row and I am in a very weird place with them. Sooner or later they will cover over the top and blow someone out IMO But when? I thought it would be last week. I am HOPING it's tonight.

Not that this is a must win for the Chiefs. But they can't...can't lose 3 in a row here. Would be a MASSIVE blow. Why I like them

And I absolutely love the under tonight