OT-ish: The gambling thread

[1960Pats]

I don't bet anymore, but if I did I would have put a few bucks on Tennessee and The Giants, only because the Jags and Skins are pathetic right now.

 

[Joker]

fnordtrapezoid

 

[maust]

Well Denver certainly didn't help the Santa fund, glad I only took a soft roll on them. I jus didn't see much to like out of the lines/matchups this week. Seattle can easily salvage my weekend tomorrow night.

 

[maust]

I don't bet anymore, but if I did I would have put a few bucks on Tennessee and The Giants, only because the Jags and Skins are pathetic right now.

SF is pathetic too, you can see how that worked out for me lol.
I don't get into it the way I used to. Basically I start the season with a grand earmarked 'for entertainment purposes only' and if/when I get up by that much I only play the winnings. Should the initial investment vaporize early I am done for the year. Right now minus the $250 I dropped on Denver today I am up $4300 on the season and half of that came from last week. 'Back in the day' I usually rolled more than that most every weekend, of course that was before my semi-retirement when I had more coming in.

 

[1960Pats]

SF is pathetic too, you can see how that worked out for me lol.
I don't get into it the way I used to. Basically I start the season with a grand earmarked 'for entertainment purposes only' and if/when I get up by that much I only play the winnings. Should the initial investment vaporize early I am done for the year. Right now minus the $250 I dropped on Denver today I am up $4300 on the season and half of that came from last week. 'Back in the day' I usually rolled more than that most every weekend, of course that was before my semi-retirement when I had more coming in.

I have a close friend who's a bookie. According to him he makes most of his money off of football and he makes plenty (with the lone exception being the Pats).

Sometimes when I sit there with him when he's taking bets I can see how much people bet. It's staggering really.

 

[maust]

I have a close friend who's a bookie. According to him he makes most of his money off of football and he makes plenty (with the lone exception being the Pats).

Sometimes when I sit there with him when he's taking bets I can see how much people bet. It's staggering really.

I think gambling is like most 'soft' vices, entertaining in moderation and occasionally invigorating provided you have it and it doesn't have you. Not unlike the chilled Crown Royal I am currently sipping or the occasional good cigar, all things in acceptable moderation. My only uncontrollable weakness is for a certain redhead and I have to admit that after all these years together that addiction is incurable...and I wouldn't have it any other way.

 

[fightingirish595]

I’m working a hit list of kickers this year. Absurd how many have really hurt me by missing. About 25 percent of the league.

 

[fnordcircle]

I have a close friend who's a bookie. According to him he makes most of his money off of football and he makes plenty (with the lone exception being the Pats).

Sometimes when I sit there with him when he's taking bets I can see how much people bet. It's staggering really.

It's sad when you see people whose lives are destroyed by gambling.

There's a reason why I have never tried meth. Cause I'd probably ****ing love it and I have a hard enough time saying no to pizza. Thankfully I don't have a weakness when it comes to booze or unprotected sex or any of the other vices that could really get me.

I gamble for fun, but when the Pats stop covering like they tend to do I'll probably gamble less. Post Brady and Belichick it'll be harder to hope they cover 10+ games a year.

 

[XLIX]

It's sad when you see people whose lives are destroyed by gambling.

I am not going to say my life is destroyed by gambling, but it sure as hell f*cked up a bunch of weekends along the road....

 

[maust]

It's sad when you see people whose lives are destroyed by gambling.

There's a reason why I have never tried meth. Cause I'd probably ****ing love it and I have a hard enough time saying no to pizza. Thankfully I don't have a weakness when it comes to booze or unprotected sex or any of the other vices that could really get me.

I gamble for fun, but when the Pats stop covering like they tend to do I'll probably gamble less. Post Brady and Belichick it'll be harder to hope they cover 10+ games a year.

QFT, I know a couple of seriously degenerate gamblers and I won't take their money no matter how desperate they are to bet with me.

 

[1960Pats]

It's sad when you see people whose lives are destroyed by gambling.

There's a reason why I have never tried meth. Cause I'd probably ****ing love it and I have a hard enough time saying no to pizza. Thankfully I don't have a weakness when it comes to booze or unprotected sex or any of the other vices that could really get me.

I gamble for fun, but when the Pats stop covering like they tend to do I'll probably gamble less. Post Brady and Belichick it'll be harder to hope they cover 10+ games a year.

My friend used to be a Pats fan but now he hates them because he takes a beating from them with the bettors. I would imagine if he lived in another part of the country he wouldn't get burned by them as much.

I remember being there when one guy would make bets on many games being played in many sports each night. He would bet games where there was no way he could know that much about the teams. He'd usually bet 200-500 on every game and would lose a few thousand every week.

I was never that bad, but I did get the bug after I won a 5.5 point bet in OT when Tom Landry faked a winning FG on 2nd down in OT in the 70's, but ended up quitting in the 80's when I got burned by Jim Zorn and Steve Largent vs air Coryel.

 

[maust]

Thank you Seattle, bookend comfortable covers from the Titans and the Hawks has Santa riding high despite the inexplicably miserable showing of the Donks against the Niners. Life is good...(ATM)

 

[maust]

Currently the Pats are giving 1.5 in Pittsburgh, looks pretty damn attractive to me but it could drop with the casual idiot liking the Steelers as a home dog. The O/U has already climbed to 52 after opening at 49, wish I had jumped on the open but I did get in at 49 1/2.

Keeping an eye out for a rise on Dallas +3 at Indy through tomorrow night, after that the Dallas money will start pushing it the wrong way.

Another line to watch is (don't laugh) Jax -7 hosting Washington. The Jax D would love nothing better than to take out their frustrations on the Buttfumbler. If the Skins money drives that line below 6 I will be looking for reasons not to hit that one hard (besides Jax's offense).


Thoughts?

 

[fnordcircle]

1.5? **** yeah I hope my favorite book has that line (they do lines internally they don't use one of the nationwide outfits)

Always my favorite type of bet, all I have to do is root for the Pats to win if I buy .5.

 

[jmt57]

Week 15 odds as of Wednesday night, give or take a point based on where you shop.

Thursday Night, Dec 13
Chargers at Chiefs (-3½), 53½

Saturday Games, Dec 15
Texans (-6) at Jets, 41½
Browns at Broncos (-3), 45½

Early Games, Dec 16
Dolphins at Vikings (-7), 44½
Raiders at Bengals (-3), 46
Buccaneers at Ravens (-7½), 46½
Cowboys at Colts (-3), 47
Lions at Bills (-2½), 39
Packers at Bears (-6), 45
Titans at Giants (-2½), 43½
Redskins at Jaguars (-7), 36
Cardinals at Falcons (-8½), 44

Late Games, Dec 16
Seahawks (-4½) at Niners, 44
Patriots (-2) at Steelers, 52

Sunday Night, Dec 16
Eagles at Rams (-11), 53½

Monday Night, Dec 17
Saints (-6) at Panthers, 51½

 

[fnordcircle]

You know, I thought the Chiefs -3 was a pretty safe bet. I still think that way, just uh...sucks that reality didn't agree. $300 down. Thanks for nothing, Queefs.

 

[maust]

You know, I thought the Chiefs -3 was a pretty safe bet. I still think that way, just uh...sucks that reality didn't agree. $300 down. Thanks for nothing, Queefs.

I couldn't bring myself to touch that one, glad I didn't.
So far I am on the Pats -1.5 and the over 49.5 and Dallas +3.
If Seattle drops 1/2 a point and Jax a full point I would see those as advantageous as well.

 

[jmt57]

There must be something that I am overlooking, because Seattle minus the points at San Fran looked like a good deal at 4½ points, and an even better deal now that it is minus 3½.

NFL Week 16 Look-Ahead Lines And Betting Market Moves For Week 15

Road favorites struggled for the second straight week as bettors poured their money on the favorites and came up short. Week 14 road favorites went just 3-5 SU/ATS with all five ATS losses in straight-up fashion. The last two weeks have seen road favorites go 6-9 SU and 5-10 ATS. Week 15 has four road favorites, including some key contests as New England visits Pittsburgh and New Orleans at Carolina on Monday night.

According to Sports Insights, which monitors sportsbooks and betting activity, the Saints (-6.5) are taking 73% of the bets against the Panthers while the Patriots (-2.5) are taking a week-high 82% of the bets against the Steelers as of Thursday afternoon.

The two other road favorites are Houston (-7) at the NY Jets and Seattle (-4.5) at San Francisco. The Texans are taking 75% of the bets while the Seahawks are taking 68% of the bets.

Those four teams as road favorites are taking four of the five most bets and betting action, as the Rams (-11.5) have been bet up and are taking 71% of the bets at home against the Eagles. So a majority of bettors are not adjusting but more often chasing market moves. That includes on Seattle, who despite taking a majority of the bets has seen the line drop and reverse line movement. More bets have come in on the Seahawks, yet the line has dropped, indicating more sharp action on the 49ers.​

 

[jmt57]

From Tuesday (Dec 11), next week's Advanced 'Look-Ahead' lines for Week 16:

 

[jmt57]

Back to Week 15:

Seahawks (-3½) at Niners
Seattle is playing very well, winning four straight - including the last two by a combined score of 64-23. SF on the other hand is in a three way tie for the worst record this season. Division road games are always tough, but I can't envision Seattle not winning by at least four points.
... SF 26, Sea 23 in OT

Texans (-6) at Jets
Despite playing the Jete, Houston will be doubly motivated. The Texans are coming off a loss, and they are battling for a playoff bye and home field. The Jets have nothing to play for other than a more preferable tee time and earlier draft slot.
... Hou 29, NYJ 22

Packers at Bears (-5)
Green Bay is not very good at all this year. Stick a fork in them, they are done. The Chicago defense is legit; the Bears won't need to score much at all to cover.
... Chi 24, GB 17

Cardinals (+10) at Falcons
I think Atlanta has thrown in the towel on the season. They have descended to the point where lowly Arizona could actually go on the road and win this game.
... Atl 40, Ariz 14

Browns (+3) at Broncos
Cleveland has for the most part been playing relatively well over the last few weeks. Denver on the other hand has been more down than up. Yes visiting teams tend to fare poorly in the mile high altitude. I think the Broncos are regressing to the 2-4 early season version of themselves after losing to SF.
... Cle 17, Den 16

The Rest:
Chargers (+3½) at Chiefs LAC 29, KC 28
Dolphins (+7) at Vikings Min 41, Mia 17
Raiders at Bengals (-3) Cin 30, Oak 16
Buccaneers (+8) at Ravens -push- Bal 20, TB 12
Cowboys (+3) at Colts Ind 23, Dal 0
Lions at Bills (-2½) Buf 14, Det 13
Titans (+2½) at Giants Ten 17, NYG 0
Redskins (+7½) at Jaguars Was 16, Jax 13
Patriots (-2½) at Steelers Pitt 17, NEP 10
Eagles at Rams (-12½) Phil 30, LAR 23
Saints (-6) at Panthers NO 12, Car 9


Five-Point, Five-Game Teaser:
Cowboys (+8) at Colts
Texans (-1) at Jets
Eagles at Rams (-7½)
Saints (-1) at Panthers
Cardinals (+15) at Falcons