OT-ish: The gambling thread

[fnordcircle]

I shot my wad halfway through September for the second year in a row, so I haven’t been playing. The itch is there, but I can’t afford to throw any money away at the moment. I’m living vicariously through this thread, and from the looks of things, most of us aren’t exactly pushing away from the table with full bellies on a regular basis.

I do have to hand it to fnord, who has successfully simplified a system that has produced nicely. Thanks to those who have kept the thread moving.

These threads are fun because nobody ever wants to talk gambling with me, like, ever. And those that do feel the need to determine if I am addict or something.

Muthflocka I budget to gamble and I don't go above that budget.

Speaking of $500 on the pats -5. I like a sub TD line for the Pats at home in December.

 

[supafly]

Speaking of $500 on the pats -5. I like a sub TD line for the Pats at home in December.

You’ve seemed to take an aggressive approach all year, and you’ve been rewarded for it. Personally, I wouldn’t have had the balls to make some of your choices, which means that I’d have been betting scared and wouldn’t have profited. We see whose approach has worked, so props on that. I’ve seriously learned something just from watching a fairly simplistic style where you don’t necessarily need action on other games to see success.

 

[jmt57]

Another week of flinging picks up against the wall to see what sticks.

Week 13 Picks:
Bills (+4½) at Dolphins
Miami's only win in the last 5 games was a 7-point home victory vvs the Jets a month ago. Buffalo is much better with Josh Allen and Nate Perman gone. The Dolphin offense is anemic.
Mia 21, Buf 17

Browns (+6) at Texans
Cleveland's offense has been clicking since Baker Mayfield replaced Tyrod Taylor, and the team as a whole is much better and more confident since Hue Jackson was fired. Houston is overdue for a loss and could be looking ahead to next week's game vs Indy.
Hou 29, Cle 13

Broncos at Bengals (+5½)
AJ Green returns and opponents have no film to study for tendencies on QB Jeff Driskel. Denver is on the road so they don't have the advantage of opponents gasping for oxygen at Mile High. The Bronco offense is nothing special either, though Cincy's defense is even worse.
Den 24, Cin 10

Colts (-4) at Jaguars
As much as it pains me to say it, Indy is playing very well; their offensive line has been great. Jacksonville has thrown in the towel. The biggest potential hurdle is if this is a trap game for the Colts, who are at Houston next week.
Jax 6, Ind 0

Panthers (-3) at Buccaneers
Looking for some regression back to the norm here. Carolina has lost three straight and is due for a win. The Bucs are horrible on defense; beating SF at home in an early game doesn't count for anything.
TB 24, Car 17

Four-point Teaser:
Cardinals (+18) at Packers Ari 20, GB 17
Rams (-6) at Lions LAR 30, Det 16

Three-game Parlay:
Seahawks (-9½) vs Niners Sea 43, SF 16
Colts (-4) at Jaguars Jax 6, Ind 0
Ravens at Falcons (over 46½) 42 (26-16)

The Rest: 5-5
Chargers at Steelers (-3) LAC 33, Pit 30
Ravens at Falcons (-2½) Bal 26, Atl 16
Bears (-3½) at Giants NYG 30, Chi 27 in OT
Rams (-10) at Lions LAR 30, Det 16
Cardinals (+14) at Packers Ari 20, GB 17
Chiefs at Raiders (+14) KC 40, Oak 33
Jets at Titans (-9) Ten 26, NYJ 22
Vikings at Patriots (-5) NE 24, Min 10
Niners at Seahawks (-9½) Sea 43, SF 16
Redskins (+6½) at Eagles Phil 28, Wash 13

 

[maust]

For the early games, took Buffalo getting 6.5 early in the week and Houston -4.5.

 

[maust]

Rolling half the 1:00 winnings onto the Pats -5.

 

[fnordcircle]

Some site says we're 7-4 against the spread this year but, for the life of me I can't remember what game we won but didn't cover. But it could be that I covered locally/bought points and forgot a close one.

Anyone know offhand?

 

[maust]

Some site says we're 7-4 against the spread this year but, for the life of me I can't remember what game we won but didn't cover. But it could be that I covered locally/bought points and forgot a close one.

Anyone know offhand?

KC, spread was 3.5 no doubt you bought at least the half and hopefully a full 1

 

[maust]

Tennessee giving 4.5 at home to Jax on TNF strikes me as higher than I'd like but worth a polite roll of the dice.

 

[fnordcircle]

$600 on the Pats -7 (bought half a point)

If I win then that means I have lived the entire regular off of my week 1 bet.

 

[1960Pats]

There have been 193 games so far and this is the breakdown vs the spread;

Games won and covered - 97 (57 over 3)
Games won as underdog - 58 (28 over 3)
Games won or tied and not covered - 33 (29 over 3)
Games that tied spread - 5 (none over 3)

 

[jmt57]

Early Advance Look-Ahead Lines for Week 15, from early this past week:

 

[supafly]

Early Advance Look-Ahead Lines for Week 15, from early this past week:

Would be the first time that NE has been an underdog in quite sometime. I would agree with that line—or at least something around the “even” mark. I think it’s difficult to assume a win at Pittsburgh.

 

[maust]

I'd like to pull the trigger on the Pats but as much as I like them to win the trend is wrong to be coughing up a number that high and the moneyline is prohibitive. Elsewhere the number has moved in the right direction and Denver -3 @ SF is the only Sunday play ATM unless pregame movement frees something up. Seattle is def worth the 3 points at home against the Vikes on Monday.

 

[BobDigital]

2 back to back subpar weeks. Hope to get back on track this week.

Patriots -8 @ Dolphins - History is against picking this spread and even picking the patriots at all. That being said I'm going against the trend to pick the Patriots in this. The Patriots haven't been great on the road but have been doing better as of late. I see this as the year the Pat finally do well at Miami. They need to keep pace with a lot of teams and have come off a bad loss not long ago. This being a hat and T-shirt game will keep them motivated. Give me the Pats -8

Rams - 3 @ Bears - I just don't believe in the Bears. Their QB is just too questionable and their recent loses have shown some cracks in the armor. Mack is getting worn down and it is causing the rest of their D to slow down too. Give me the Rams - 3

Broncos - 3.5 @ SF - I don't think SF is good at all. Maybe with JG they would have been more respectable but generally they have stink. The Broncos have a lot to play for still and have been doing well recently. Give me the Broncos -3.5

Saints @ Bucs U/O 54.5 - It is hard to imagine this not being a pretty high scoring game. The Bucs can't play D and they will probably score in their house with that offense. Give me the Over .

 

[Vatahala]

$600 on the Pats -7 (bought half a point)

If I win then that means I have lived the entire regular off of my week 1 bet.

It's interesting watching the pats line movement. Line opened at 10 at las Vegas insider and then quickly went to 7 but now of 6 listed sportsbooks three have up it to 9, 2 at 8 1/2 and 1 at 8.

 

[jmt57]

Crap week 13 (1-4) bailed out by a teaser (Cardinals plus the points at Packers, Rams winning and covering at Detroit) last week.

Here goes nothing for Week 14:

Panthers at Browns (+1½)
Carolina is in a free fall, with a deer in the headlights look over the last four games.

Jets at Bills (-3)
Buffalo's defense has been decent, and dumping Nathan Peterman has been a huge boost.

Saints (-9½) at Buccaneers
New Orleans will be highly motivated with ten days to think about their loss to Dallas. They won't take the Bucs lightly either after losing to Tampa in week one. Even though the rain may slow down the New Orleans offense somewhat, the Saints should be able to exploit a mediocre Buc defense.

Ravens at Chiefs (-6½)
I'm not sold on the recent hype about Baltimore and their defense. Arrowhead is still a really tough place for a visiting team to come in and perform well.

Giants (-3) at Redskins
Jay Gruden seems to be acting as if having an injury means you get to shrug your shoulders and act as if you have a built in excuse for losing. Mark Sanchez was signed because there are some ex-NYJ coaches on the staff. Has Gruden never seen the ButtFumble, or looked at the Jets record over the last half century?

Broncos (-3) at Niners
The Denver defense should be able to shut down an anemic SF offense.


The Rest:
Colts (+4) at Texans
Falcons at Packers (-4)
Patriots (-8½) at Dolphins
Rams (-3) at Bears
Bengals (+17) at Chargers
Lions at Cardinals (+3)
Eagles (+3½) at Cowboys
Steelers at Raiders (+10½)
Vikings at Seahawks (-3)

Three-Team, Seven-Point Teaser:
Bengals +24
Patriots -1½
Giants +4

Three-Game Parlay:
Bills -3
Giants -3
Broncos -3

 

[fnordcircle]

Fudge.

 

[luuked]

Fudge.

At least you were already ****ed either way. If this play at the end had screwed the bet it would have been an even bigger heart breaker.

 

[fnordcircle]

At least you were already ****ed either way. If this play at the end had screwed the bet it would have been an even bigger heart breaker.

I guess I just I like it better when the Patriots win.

 

[luuked]

I guess I just I like it better when the Patriots win.

No question. Was just looking at it from the betting perspective.