Content Post OT-ish: The gambling thread

[TheBeers]

I had the titans teased, and their D in some daily fantasy so I’ll take the points... but I was thinking while Butler was returning that pick that was a super selfish play, just get on the ground and win the damn game.

 

[maust]

I had the titans teased, and their D in some daily fantasy so I’ll take the points... but I was thinking while Butler was returning that pick that was a super selfish play, just get on the ground and win the damn game.

Regardless of the bet I still would have been yelling "Just go down moron!"
Granted, it might not have been as loud

 

[Jackson 2]

If I didn't have a life-long rooting interest in tomorrow's game, I'd be on Bufallo getting 13.5 like a fly on s###...

 

[maust]

If I didn't have a life-long rooting interest in tomorrow's game, I'd be on Bufallo getting 13.5 like a fly on s###...

Meh, you bet with your head not your heart so the rooting interest shouldn't enter into it.
I could see New England covering that number with room to spare and I could also make a very plausible argument against it. What I do know for sure is Brady's results vs the Bills in Foxborough is not a trend I'd bet against, which is why I'm not touching that game.

 

[jmt57]

3-2 last week.
I suppose 60% is a relatively realistic goal. Better than the alternative.
4-6-1 in the 'other' games. Glad I stayed away from those.
Didn't come close in the five-game teaser.

Seahawks losing to San Fran still has me shaking my head.
Lesson I should know by now: when it seems too easy, run away. Fast.

Week 16:

Saints (-6) vs Steelers
Pittsburgh won their Super Bowl last week. Tomlin is not the type of coach that will be able to get his team remotely close to being mentally or emotionally ready for a team that is this good, on the road, just a week later.

Packers (-2½) at Jets
Green Bay has played better since Mike McCarthy was fired, even though their offense still has no creativity. I don't see why the Packers can't win by at least a field goal against the feeble Jets.

Texans (+2½) at Eagles
I like Houston's receivers (DeAndre Hopkins, Demaryius Thomas) in a mismatch versus Philly's very average secondary. The Eagles could also have a bit of a letdown after beating the Rams, and Houston's front seven can give QB Nick Foles major problems.

Not confident about anything else, but since I have been doing five games all year:

Bills (+13½) at Patriots
I believe the Pats will bounce back, but I don't see them having the horses to win in a blowout right now against a steadily improving Buffalo team.

Rams (-14) at Cardinals
After two straight losses the Rams regain some confidence against a subpar Arizona team.


The Rest:
Bucs (+7½) at Cowboys
Falcons at Panthers (+3)
Jaguars (+3½) at Dolphins
Giants (+10) at Colts
Vikings at Lions (+6)
Bengals (+10) at Browns
Bears at Forty Niners (+4½)
Chiefs (-1½) at Seahawks
Broncos (-3) at Raiders


Five-Game Five-Point Teaser:
Texans (+7½) at Eagles
Rams (-9) at Cardinals
Bills (+18½) at Patriots
Saints (-1) vs Steelers
Broncos at Raiders under 48½

 

[Jackson 2]

Meh, you bet with your head not your heart so the rooting interest shouldn't enter into it.
I could see New England covering that number with room to spare and I could also make a very plausible argument against it. What I do know for sure is Brady's results vs the Bills in Foxborough is not a trend I'd bet against, which is why I'm not touching that game.

Many, many years ago as a young, single guy I'd bet a fair amount of money each Sunday on one NFL game. I was unfailingly loyal to the "bet with your head, not your heart" philosophy except when it came to the Pats. I couldn't bet against them then and I couldn't now.

 

[maust]

Many, many years ago as a young, single guy I'd bet a fair amount of money each Sunday on one NFL game. I was unfailingly loyal to the "bet with your head, not your heart" philosophy except when it came to the Pats. I couldn't bet against them then and I couldn't now.

I very seldom bet against the Pats and when I have it's always been because of either an absolutely stupid number, like you feel the current line is, or they were in Miami giving a silly number. I have never bet on them to lose and believe me when I tell you in the Kiam years that loyalty was severely tested, we left a lot of money on the table in those days.
What I found surprising in your original post was the implied willingness to ignore the trend of Brady taking the Billdos lunch money in Foxboro.

 

[fnordcircle]

Sigh.

 

[fnordcircle]

Man. C'mon. Dude.

 

[fnordcircle]

First game they won but failed to cover for me (I won the KC game)

Down $1500 the past 4 bets, 3 of which were on the Pats. I had lost 3 times before this bad run putting me at $2400 I've lost.

Meanwhile I've won at least $3500, so I'm still pretty far ahead.

Today was just annoying, though, I ****ing hate the last 5 minutes of a lopsided game in the NFL. Just ****ing pack it in and stay healthy, but no they've gotta do a meaningless cover and the Patriots, who aren't idiots, are going to let you score so long as you take up a lot of the time because it's about the clock not the score at that point.

I've been really good the past few years of not letting gambling losses ruin a win for me but this one was just really annoying.

 

[luuked]

First game they won but failed to cover for me (I won the KC game)

Down $1500 the past 4 bets, 3 of which were on the Pats. I had lost 3 times before this bad run putting me at $2400 I've lost.

Meanwhile I've won at least $3500, so I'm still pretty far ahead.

Today was just annoying, though, I ****ing hate the last 5 minutes of a lopsided game in the NFL. Just ****ing pack it in and stay healthy, but no they've gotta do a meaningless cover and the Patriots, who aren't idiots, are going to let you score so long as you take up a lot of the time because it's about the clock not the score at that point.

I've been really good the past few years of not letting gambling losses ruin a win for me but this one was just really annoying.

Do any of the bookies in the US have live betting markets where you can just cash out at current odds ? I don't think I could handle doing any gambling without that at this point.

 

[maust]

Sorry, I haven't been online since I pulled the trigger.

Pats line dropping from 13.5 to -10.5 before kickoff was too attractive to lay off, likewise with Cleveland dropping from 8.5 to 7. Dallas -7, Philly -1, NYG +9.5, MN -6.5 and NO -5 along with GB/NYJ under at 48.

So far the Pats, Brownies, Iggles, G-men and Queens all paid off, the cowgirls pushed to friggin Tampa (TAMPA??? wth was I thinking taking Dallas outside of the NFCE???!!!), the GB/Jete game went 'slightly' over (only 82 total points scored against my ridiculous under at 48). + $1250 in early + money with only $250 still at risk on NO makes taking a $250 found money shot at a desperate Seattle squad getting 1 1/2 at home worthwhile.

I don't know why but that push on Dallas really has me a lot more annoyed than I should be. I looked at that one hard and would have taken the cowgirls at anything below 10.

 

[maust]

First game they won but failed to cover for me (I won the KC game)

Down $1500 the past 4 bets, 3 of which were on the Pats. I had lost 3 times before this bad run putting me at $2400 I've lost.

Meanwhile I've won at least $3500, so I'm still pretty far ahead.

Today was just annoying, though, I ****ing hate the last 5 minutes of a lopsided game in the NFL. Just ****ing pack it in and stay healthy, but no they've gotta do a meaningless cover and the Patriots, who aren't idiots, are going to let you score so long as you take up a lot of the time because it's about the clock not the score at that point.

I've been really good the past few years of not letting gambling losses ruin a win for me but this one was just really annoying.

Thanks for posting that KC result, I wondered about it after our posts about it.
It can't help the annoyance level any that the line dropped to 10.5 before kickoff. I feel your pain there I've had two easily avoidable buttwhippings this year from pulling the trigger on the line too early.

 

[Froob]

Philly to playoffs please

 

[fnordcircle]

It can't help the annoyance level any that the line dropped to 10.5 before kickoff.

Oh wow, thanks, a new thing to be annoyed about. Jeeezy Creeezy. Today has been a bad day.

I just lost a 3 year old character in a permadeath multiplayer video game. Most characters last for about 2 weeks. No do overs, nothing, just all gone from a stupid scenario.

This has not been a great week. At least I'm having a lot of solid bowel movements.

 

[luuked]

I just lost a 3 year old character in a permadeath multiplayer video game. Most characters last for about 2 weeks. No do overs, nothing, just all gone from a stupid scenario.

What happened ?

 

[fnordcircle]

What happened ?

Just stupid stuff, it's just a bummer day for me, I think. At least the Pats won. I think. IDK, talking to pats fans it certainly doesn't feel that way.

 

[FCB02062]

Betting against Pats last 3 games has paid handsome dividends....if the NYJ are double digits dogs I'd be all over it again....

 

[maust]

Oh wow, thanks, a new thing to be annoyed about. Jeeezy Creeezy. Today has been a bad day.

This has not been a great week. At least I'm having a lot of solid bowel movements.

Good news on the bowel movement front though so there's that, there's more than a few folks here that could benefit from a few.

 

[maust]

Them Seasquawks have proved to be a feisty home dog, not that it happens often.