OT-ish: The gambling thread

[jmt57]

Here is what is available as of Monday night. 5Dimes and SportsBet have the Patriots at -14½ while everyone else is either -13 or -13½.

Numbers on the other games vary about a half point or so depending on where you shop, and may have changed by the time you read this.

Jets at Patriots (-13½), 46
Eagles (-6½) at Redskins, 42
Lions at Packers (-7½), 45
Jaguars at Texans (-7½), 40½
Browns at Ravens (-6), 41
Falcons at Buccaneers (-1), 51
Dolphins at Bills (-3½), 38½
Bengals at Steelers (-14), 45½
Bears at Vikings (-5), 41
Niners at Rams (-10), 50

No lines yet on the six other games.

 

[jmt57]

Week 17 is an extremely difficult week to handicap, given the number of teams that have nothing to play for, or could see a half time score that is not in their favor.

Eagles (-6½) at Washington
Bears (+5½) at Vikings
Texans (-6½) vs Jaguars
Titans (+3½) vs Colts
Chargers (-6) at Broncos

Six-Point Teaser:
Patriots (-7½) vs Jets
Chiefs (-7½) vs Raiders
Seahawks (-6½) vs Cardinals
Jaguars at Texans (under 47)
Niners at Rams (-4)

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I suck at picking spreads and winners, but I’m good at futures betting, particularly long shots (and you can hedge the bet later to get a guaranteed payout.). Anyway, in September after game three, I told a group of people to take Patrick Mahomes for MVP at +1200. Those odds seemed insane if you were paying attention to his talent.

You can still get him at -150/-200 (60-67% chance to win). Obviously odds slashed, but 8 of 9 sportswriters at ESPN, plus Barnwell, picked him as MVP barring a week 17 meltdown. I think his odds should be much better at this point.

As a point of reference, the race between Brady and Gurley was supposed to be “close” last year, but I picked up on those votes at places like SI.com and ESPN, as generally sportswriters are going to reflective of the voters, who are also sportswriters. So even though Brady was only about -250 to win MVP, he won in a landslide with 40/50 votes, and I wasn’t surprised because it was consistent with aggregating those website picks.

I think Mahomes should be closer to -1000 (90% chance to win). There’s a lot of value in that bet, and I think the odds will change a lot soon.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Not the biggest fan of this site (MB), they have a limit on props so I had to put this in 5X over but hoping this hits tomorrow
BET TICKET: #44032837
PLACED: 2018-09-06 13:05:57
STRAIGHT BET
MU
2018-12-30
13:00:00

[60229] TOTAL o4299½+105 (P RIVERS TOT PASSING YARDS vrs P RIVERS TOT PASSING YARDS) (Philip Rivers - Regular Season Total Passing Yards)

RISK: $100.00
WIN: $105.00

Did great on props & definitely suggest those if you don't play them.

Over win totals on Cleveland & Chicago
Under on Pitt

Over 26.5 TD for Brees/Rivers
Over 5.5 TD for Thelien
Over 4075.5 yards for Cousins

Have KC as AFCW champs too

BET TICKET: #44751808
PLACED: 2018-09-18 21:56:22
2018/19 AFC WEST DIVISION - TO WIN
TNT
2018-12-24
17:00:05

[10232] KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +120

 

[fnordcircle]

$300 on the Jets -13 (bought half a point)

IDK anymore. My life is a lie.

 

[supafly]

$300 on the Jets -13 (bought half a point)

IDK anymore. My life is a lie.

Fingers crossed that you hit this week. Could just be some lousy luck, lately.

 

[supafly]

I suck at picking spreads and winners, but I’m good at futures betting, particularly long shots (and you can hedge the bet later to get a guaranteed payout.). Anyway, in September after game three, I told a group of people to take Patrick Mahomes for MVP at +1200. Those odds seemed insane if you were paying attention to his talent.

You can still get him at -150/-200 (60-67% chance to win). Obviously odds slashed, but 8 of 9 sportswriters at ESPN, plus Barnwell, picked him as MVP barring a week 17 meltdown. I think his odds should be much better at this point.

As a point of reference, the race between Brady and Gurley was supposed to be “close” last year, but I picked up on those votes at places like SI.com and ESPN, as generally sportswriters are going to reflective of the voters, who are also sportswriters. So even though Brady was only about -250 to win MVP, he won in a landslide with 40/50 votes, and I wasn’t surprised because it was consistent with aggregating those website picks.

I think Mahomes should be closer to -1000 (90% chance to win). There’s a lot of value in that bet, and I think the odds will change a lot soon.

Just curious as to what happens with Mahomes tickets if he and Brees co-share the award? Do you know? Do they still cash?

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Just curious as to what happens with Mahomes tickets if he and Brees co-share the award? Do you know? Do they still cash?

I was wondering that myself. I'm guessing they'd give you your money back and call it a push but not sure. They'd be on the line for big losses if they didn't.

 

[1960Pats]

I've been enjoying this thread for the season in spite of the fact that I don't gamble anymore. But now it's time for me to come clean about something that's been bothering me for close to 8 years now.

Back in 2011 I saw a $100 Superbowl bet that I thought I should make. Usually I don't bet other than buying SB squares but this time I decided to make this particular wager. I even mentioned it to my wife in the morning.

First I wanted to go to the various locations to get my square numbers but then I got distracted. Therefore I never did get the bet in and started watching the Pats/Giants SB.

And then it came back to me, just as Tom Brady was throwing an incomplete pass from the endzone and the refs threw the flag. I forgot to put the $100 down on a bet that the first score would be a safety. The odds were 1000-1.

I get sick every time I think about it. I could have used that $100,000.00 (minus taxes).

 

[maust]

It doesn't happen often that the lines are so silly that it's hard to look at them and not start thinking props instead but Week 17 is the exception that proves the rule. Hogan and Dorsett are both at 1.5 O/U on catches going over on both. As for game bets, not touching the Pats at -14.5 for fear they get up and coast to giving up a back door cover. So the plays are Buff -2.5 and Atl -1. Still might back into the Steelers -14 IF there is believable positive word about AB.

 

[fnordcircle]

Fingers crossed that you hit this week. Could just be some lousy luck, lately.

Thanks buddy but overall this has been a great gambling season for me. I think I've made my 2nd most even if they lose today.

 

[maust]

Hogan & Dorsett ($500 on each) both came through so with only $250 on the game bets they've guaranteed a winning day. Still haven't seen anything definitive on AB, which has me pondering if a found money bet on Indy might be in order instead. Any thoughts?

 

[fnordcircle]

Hogan & Dorsett ($500 on each) both came through so with only $250 on the game bets they've guaranteed a winning day. Still haven't seen anything definitive on AB, which has me pondering if a found money bet on Indy might be in order instead. Any thoughts?

They are saying no Antonio Brown for the Steelers in the Pats game, but I mean, I dunno how much I'm gonna trust Dan Fouts...

 

[maust]

They are saying no Antonio Brown for the Steelers in the Pats game, but I mean, I dunno how much I'm gonna trust Dan Fouts...

He has officially been listed as inactive. Thinking of pulling the trigger on Colts -3.5 as the solo late play. The numbers on LAR, KC & Seattle are just flat out stupid and I have a gut fear that a once proud D in Denver may either give the LAC a hard time or could just as easily already be headed for the 19th hole. With Hogan and Dorsett money already covered and the Falcons and Bills in cruise mode I may be looking at a nice found money pile before the late kickoffs. Thoughts on the Colts cover?

 

[fnordcircle]

Thoughts on the Colts cover?

I think I'm gonna go drop $200 on the Colts. I do like that line a lot, but you never know. Home dogs. Division Game. Vrabel might get his dudes up for it....

Still, overall, I respect what the Colts have done this season. Shame we couldn't pick up Ebron.

 

[maust]

I think I'm gonna go drop $200 on the Colts. I do like that line a lot, but you never know. Home dogs. Division Game. Vrabel might get his dudes up for it....

Still, overall, I respect what the Colts have done this season. Shame we couldn't pick up Ebron.

Bills, Falcons, Hogan & Dorsett all came through, that's +$15oo on the day so I am rolling a grand in found money on the dolts. Ebron would have been sick here. I wouldn't be surprised if the Pats ran a prove it deal by Eifert in FA, worth keeping an eye out for that one.

 

[fnordcircle]

Bills, Falcons, Hogan & Dorsett all came through, that's +$15oo on the day so I am rolling a grand in found money on the dolts. Ebron would have been sick here. I wouldn't be surprised if the Pats ran a prove it deal by Eifert in FA, worth keeping an eye out for that one.

Badass day man, great job being a degenerate gambler!

 

[ScottishPatriots]

Interesting NFL Wildcard Round opening lines

Colts vs Texans - Texans -2.5
Seahawks vs Cowboys - Cowboys -2.5
Chargers vs Ravens - Ravens -3
Eagles vs Bears - Bears -5.5

 

[FCB02062]

Pats, Alabama killed me but buffalo +1.5 (hockey) softened the blow...

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Just curious as to what happens with Mahomes tickets if he and Brees co-share the award? Do you know? Do they still cash?

And here's the sound of that window shutting on capitalizing on those MVP odds.