Now Clearer AFC Playoff Picture: Pats Should Secure a Bye

[Rob0729]

How do you know this?

ESPN's playoff predictor.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

ESPN's playoff predictor.

Sounds kinda fishy to me. If we both win out, we'll have same AFC record, same common opponents record, they'd have a better divisional record (not sure if that factors in), then it would go to strength of victory, which is impossible to know right now.

 

[TriplecHamp]

The redskins just beat the Seahawks who just beat the Ravens. The Chiefs probably beat the Steelers tonight if they started Orton. Both teams are good enough to stop the Jets' pathetic offense.

I guess we can ignore what the Jets are this year which is an average at best team, but that is what they are. That means any team on their schedule is good enough to beat them. The Bills are arguably worse than any team left on their schedule and the Jets barely beat them.

Football math, the Bills beat the Patriots who lost to the Jets twice....football doesn't work that way and you know it. Orton wasn't learning the playbook that quickly (look at Palmers fist game with Oakland) We will see what happens, the Jets are and you don't have to be much better than average to grab the 6 seed. What we aren't discussing is if we really expect the other teams in the hunt to pull away.

 

[Rob0729]

Sounds kinda fishy to me. If we both win out, we'll have same AFC record, same common opponents record, they'd have a better divisional record (not sure if that factors in), then it would go to strength of victory, which is impossible to know right now.

Maybe I got the Texans and Ravens backwards. I do know that if all three teams win out, the Pats are the second seed.

EDIT: If you select winning percentage, the Pats, Ravens, and Texans are all 13-3 and and the Pats are the #2 seed behind the Ravens,

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

 

[PatsGirl2011]

The worst case scenario, IMO, is that a somewhat decent 6 seed gets in and beat the 3rd seed Texans(baring the Pats get a bye), thus that team gets to play the 1 seed and Baltimore/Pitts is the Pats divisional game opponent. That would suck...

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

The tie break stuff is premature. At this point it is all about winning while knocking out their targets one step at a time. Target 1 is the division. Defeat Indy and Buff in the next two weeks and the division is ours (not mathematically but for all intensive purposes). If GB defeats the Raiders in that span of time, this just about wraps up no lower than a third seed. Beyond that, let's hope (while we keep winning) Atlanta, Cincy, SD, SF take care of business against our rivals.

Looking at schedules (For us: Indy, Buff, Den, Miami, Wash):

Ravens may have a more favorable schedule (Cle, Cle, Indy, SD, Cincy).

Houston less favorable (Tenn, Indy, Car, Cincy, Atlanta)

Oak less favorable (GB, Miami, Det, KC, SD)

Pitt probably less favorable (SF, Cle, Cle, StL, Cincy)

Cincy definitely less favorable (Bal, Pitt, Hou, Az, StL)

 

[supafly]

The tie break stuff is premature. At this point it is all about winning while knocking out their targets one step at a time. Target 1 is the division. Defeat Indy and Buff in the next two weeks and the division is ours (not mathematically but for all intensive purposes). If GB defeats the Raiders in that span of time, this just about wraps up no lower than a third seed. Beyond that, let's hope (while we keep winning) Atlanta, Cincy, SD, SF take care of business against our rivals.

Looking at schedules (For us: Indy, Buff, Den, Miami, Wash):

Ravens may have a more favorable schedule (Cle, Cle, Indy, SD, Cincy).

Houston less favorable (Tenn, Indy, Car, Cincy, Atlanta)

Oak less favorable (GB, Miami, Det, KC, SD)

Pitt probably less favorable (SF, Cle, Cle, StL, Cincy)

Cincy definitely less favorable (Bal, Pitt, Hou, Az, StL)

I definitely agree with your 'one thing at a time' approach, as there really is no other way.

There's nothing wrong with the #2 seed, as it is within range and we actually control our own destiny apparently, even if HOU wins out too.

I think you mean beat IND and WAS in the next couple of weeks, as we don't play BUF until the final game.

I also think you meant "for all intents and purposes," not all intensive purposes...but your point is good, and remains well taken.

 

[supafly]

The worst case scenario, IMO, is that a somewhat decent 6 seed gets in and beat the 3rd seed Texans(baring the Pats get a bye), thus that team gets to play the 1 seed and Baltimore/Pitts is the Pats divisional game opponent. That would suck...

Yes, that would suck.

Thank you for putting new worries in my head now, as I have been hoping that the playoff schedule would somehow benefit us as a #2 seed this yr.



I guess the solution to that is to root for a lowly #6, then we could play HOU or OAK/DEN in the first round, and let PIT/BAL beat up on each other + one could knock the other out. That would actually be the ideal scenario.

That's the clear cut solution, and the easiest road to the SB...We get the #2, and root for a crappy #6 who will surely lose in the first round to either HOU or the AFCW winner (OAK or DEN). Case closed. It'd be the easiest path, as we'd either host PIT in a rematch for the AFCCG, or have to try and win the AFCCG in Baltimore.

 

[Deus Irae]

This year, the 5th and 6th seeds could end up being better teams than the #3 and #4.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

I definitely agree with your 'one thing at a time' approach, as there really is no other way.

There's nothing wrong with the #2 seed, as it is within range and we actually control our own destiny apparently, even if HOU wins out too.

I think you mean beat IND and WAS in the next couple of weeks, as we don't play BUF until the final game.

I also think you meant "for all intents and purposes," not all intensive purposes...but your point is good, and remains well taken.

Watching TV while typing, rarely a good idea (that Person of Interest is pretty good). Thanks for the corrections.

Obviously having Indy and Wash the next two weeks puts the Patriots in an ideal position to be 10-3 and all but wrap up the division. I also have great faith -- I live in the Bay Area -- that Oakland will help us out and allow an early lock on at least a 3 seed.
I agree with others that Houston is in a tough spot. I'd be surprised is they don't lose another 2 games. Baltimore? That will be a tough nut to crack regarding the playoff seeding picture.

 

[supafly]

This year, the 5th and 6th seeds could end up being better teams than the #3 and #4.

Absolutely.

That's why a scenario where we could play the 3 or 4 (assuming we're a 2 seed) at home, and have one of BAL/PIT knock the other out would be the best path, no doubt about that...

The question for me---who to root for to make that #6 seed? One of DEN/OAK would work, I suppose. Maybe CIN? Just not the NYJ, as I could see them winning at the #3 (Houston or winner of AFCW), and potentially screwing the whole thing up.

Of course the same could be said for any of those teams obviously, but I'm thinking maybe either Cincy as a #6, or the loser of the West could lose in the WC round as a #6 seed.

 

[Gumby]

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM

Two Clubs

If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.
1. If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
2. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.
Two Clubs
1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.


Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)
1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the three Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in conference games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss.

The ESPN and other (web)sites citing best record in the conf is BS. They mostly use current standings with some having played 9 and some only 7 or 8 AFC games. At the end of the season everyone has played 12 AFC games. You can assume the tied teams are both 10-2 in AFC.

I think you have to use the WC rules to determine tie-breaker between Div Winners with identicle records.

I dont see it likely there can be a 3 way tie, but if it will be Hou-Pats-Balt. Cincy has to play Pitt & Balt and Houston. So that either knocks cincy or Balt out of the equation for a 3-way tie. lets assume cincy.
Squeelers if win out are WC; assuming Balt wins out too.

So everyone has same record and AFC record. You cant use H-H even though Houston lost to Balt; because NE didnt play Hou or Balt. (item 3WC-(2)). So that goes to common games: Indy -pitt. Are the common games for us three. NE 1-1, Balt 3-0, Hou 2-0.

Sad to say but that would put us as 3 seed; (IMO).

2 way tie. Assuming Houston loses another game (fairly likely with their qb sit. That leaves Balt and Pats with same record-AFC record.

Balt and our common opponent = Pitt, Indy, NYJ, SD,
So Balt is 4-0 with a likely 5-0 based on imploding Dolts.
Pats are 3-1 with an assumed 4-1 after Indy.

Only if Balt loses to an AFC team or the Dolts do we have a chance for 1 seed. Tiebreaker goes to strength of victory before strength of schedule. Currently Pats are +108 and Ravens are +90. With the weak sisters coming up this Delta should only increase in Pats favor.

But it all comes down to we need both Hou and Balt to lose a game if we want a 1 seed. (or course Balt losing a game could throw Pitt back in mix too - which is then another kettle of fish.)

 

[supafly]

The ESPN and other (web)sites citing best record in the conf is BS. They mostly use current standings with some having played 9 and some only 7 or 8 AFC games. At the end of the season everyone has played 12 AFC games. You can assume the tied teams are both 10-2 in AFC.

I think you have to use the WC rules to determine tie-breaker between Div Winners with identicle records.

I dont see it likely there can be a 3 way tie, but if it will be Hou-Pats-Balt. Cincy has to play Pitt & Balt and Houston. So that either knocks cincy or Balt out of the equation for a 3-way tie. lets assume cincy.
Squeelers if win out are WC; assuming Balt wins out too.

So everyone has same record and AFC record. You cant use H-H even though Houston lost to Balt; because NE didnt play Hou or Balt. (item 3WC-(2)). So that goes to common games: Indy -pitt. Are the common games for us three. NE 1-1, Balt 3-0, Hou 2-0.

Sad to say but that would put us as 3 seed; (IMO).

2 way tie. Assuming Houston loses another game (fairly likely with their qb sit. That leaves Balt and Pats with same record-AFC record.

Balt and our common opponent = Pitt, Indy, NYJ, SD,
So Balt is 4-0 with a likely 5-0 based on imploding Dolts.
Pats are 3-1 with an assumed 4-1 after Indy.

Only if Balt loses to an AFC team or the Dolts do we have a chance for 1 seed. Tiebreaker goes to strength of victory before strength of schedule. Currently Pats are +108 and Ravens are +90. With the weak sisters coming up this Delta should only increase in Pats favor.

But it all comes down to we need both Hou and Balt to lose a game if we want a 1 seed. (or course Balt losing a game could throw Pitt back in mix too - which is then another kettle of fish.)

Nice research, Gumby.

I think the question was what would happen if all of the top 3 teams in the AFC finished at 13-3 though. That would leave BAL as a #1, NE as a #2, and HOU as a #3; so technically we actually control our own destiny for a bye and a #2 seed.

That's why I figure it the easiest path for the #6 to be a patsie and lose to the #3, in which case we'd then host the #3. In the meantime, PIT would likely get the #5 and have to take on BAL, which would then mean we'd either host the AFCCG vs PIT, or take our chances with having to go to BAL.

Of course, there's still 1/4 of the season left, so it's a bit early to project, but I wouldn't see any reason why we couldn't get a #2 at worst. I don't think that PIT is going to be able to make up a full game in the standings on BAL, as they have a tougher schedule vs SF and CIN.

Now if we end up as a #1, then my whole 'path to the SB' is shot to hell, in which case I could see the #1 seed actually having a tougher time getting there.

Personally, I am rooting for the #2, and a weakened #6. I am also assuming that BAL wins the AFCN.

 

[Gumby]

Nice research, Gumby.

I think the question was what would happen if all of the top 3 teams in the AFC finished at 13-3 though. That would leave BAL as a #1, NE as a #2, and HOU as a #3; so technically we actually control our own destiny for a bye and a #2 seed.

The 3-way tie was the first half of my answer. So I did actually answer that saying that Houston would have a better common games record then us and get the 2 seed. ...BUT I THINK I ANSWERED WRONG. oops.

I think I answered it wrong considering there has to be a minimum of 4 common games.

SO the TIEBREAKER goes on to STRENGTH OF VICTORY -
Pats again are at +108 and Balt at +90. Houston is at +114. So based on that although we are currently a #2 seed; we would have a good shot at #1 seed by overtaking Houston and I would consider it a lock on the #2 seed with the weak schedule.

That is very counter-intuitive to me that Balt is right now a 3 seed based on a 3 way; BUT that is how the cookie crumbles. (See dripping sarcastic sympathy for murder-conspiracy loving Balt fans here)

 

[juny]

The ESPN and other (web)sites citing best record in the conf is BS. They mostly use current standings with some having played 9 and some only 7 or 8 AFC games. At the end of the season everyone has played 12 AFC games. You can assume the tied teams are both 10-2 in AFC.

I think you have to use the WC rules to determine tie-breaker between Div Winners with identicle records.

I dont see it likely there can be a 3 way tie, but if it will be Hou-Pats-Balt. Cincy has to play Pitt & Balt and Houston. So that either knocks cincy or Balt out of the equation for a 3-way tie. lets assume cincy.
Squeelers if win out are WC; assuming Balt wins out too.

So everyone has same record and AFC record. You cant use H-H even though Houston lost to Balt; because NE didnt play Hou or Balt. (item 3WC-(2)). So that goes to common games: Indy -pitt. Are the common games for us three. NE 1-1, Balt 3-0, Hou 2-0.

Sad to say but that would put us as 3 seed; (IMO).

2 way tie. Assuming Houston loses another game (fairly likely with their qb sit. That leaves Balt and Pats with same record-AFC record.

Balt and our common opponent = Pitt, Indy, NYJ, SD,
So Balt is 4-0 with a likely 5-0 based on imploding Dolts.
Pats are 3-1 with an assumed 4-1 after Indy.

Only if Balt loses to an AFC team or the Dolts do we have a chance for 1 seed. Tiebreaker goes to strength of victory before strength of schedule. Currently Pats are +108 and Ravens are +90. With the weak sisters coming up this Delta should only increase in Pats favor.

But it all comes down to we need both Hou and Balt to lose a game if we want a 1 seed. (or course Balt losing a game could throw Pitt back in mix too - which is then another kettle of fish.)

not sure you did the 3-way tie right because you need a min of 4 games for the common games tiebreaker and you only have at most 3 games by your research.

i think the espn playoff predictor is pretty accurate if you "play out" all the remaining games.

 

[goheels22002]

no way the jets go 10-6..did you see how lucky they got once again today? Luck can't last forever...should be 3-8 this season

The Jets get the Redskins, Chiefs, Eagles, Giants and Dolphins. They should go 4-1 against that group and get to 10-6. There are a lot of crappy teams this year.

 

[Rob0729]

The Jets get the Redskins, Chiefs, Eagles, Giants and Dolphins. They should go 4-1 against that group and get to 10-6. There are a lot of crappy teams this year.

If we weren't so close to the Jets, we would look at the Giants, Eagles, etc. schedule and say they have a shot to beat the Jets because they suck and not nearly as good as their record. I mean other than the Dolphins, the Jets have not won more than 2 more games than any of the teams left on their schedule and you can argue the Jets should have lost both the Cowboys and Bills game.

Is there really that much difference between a 6-5 team (Jets) and a 4-7 team (Redskins, Chiefs, Eagles)? Maybe some 4-7 teams there is a big difference, but not others. There is a lot of difference between a 8-3 team and a 4-7 team, but not a 6-5 team and a 4-7 team. It's not like the Jets are crushing teams. The only decisive wins they have had all year were against the Jags with a QB who was benched for the rest of the season for his poor play and the declining Bills who probably should have won in the rematch game.

 

[supafly]

The Jets get the Redskins, Chiefs, Eagles, Giants and Dolphins. They should go 4-1 against that group and get to 10-6. There are a lot of crappy teams this year.

I'm thinking 3-2....Eagles, Giants, and Dolphins all should pose problems.

Even Skins and KC could limit them defensively.

 

[moosekill]

The Jets get the Redskins, Chiefs, Eagles, Giants and Dolphins. They should go 4-1 against that group and get to 10-6. There are a lot of crappy teams this year.

I think they will lose 3 of those games.

 

[Rob0729]

I'm thinking 3-2....Eagles, Giants, and Dolphins all should pose problems.

Even Skins and KC could limit them defensively.

Don't count out the Chiefs. The Jets will face KC with Kyle Orton at QB. He could do some damage with those WRs. I think if Orton was more aware of the offense and played last night, the Chiefs might have beaten the Steelers.