Now Clearer AFC Playoff Picture: Pats Should Secure a Bye

[PatsFan24]

If that loss to the bills means the pats dont get a bye I am going to be sick.

 

[Observer]

I don't want t a bye. Recent history suggests that we don't do very well after byes:

2009 - win dolphins lose ravens. Season record 10-6 (beat ravens during season)
2010 - win ravens lose jets. Season record 14-2 (split with jets during season)
2011 - lose steelers. Season record 8-3

Cumulative record after byes: 2-3
Cumulative season record : 32-11 (3:1)

 

[Wolfpack]

I don't want t a bye. Recent history suggests that we don't do very well after byes:

2009 - win dolphins lose ravens. Season record 10-6 (beat ravens during season)
2010 - win ravens lose jets. Season record 14-2 (split with jets during season)
2011 - lose steelers. Season record 8-3

Cumulative record after byes: 2-3
Cumulative season record : 32-11 (3:1)

Please tell me you're joking.

 

[Observer]

I am not joking. Byes haven't proved particularly helpful, especially in the playoffs.

 

[TriplecHamp]

I don't want t a bye. Recent history suggests that we don't do very well after byes:

2009 - win dolphins lose ravens. Season record 10-6 (beat ravens during season)
2010 - win ravens lose jets. Season record 14-2 (split with jets during season)
2011 - lose steelers. Season record 8-3

Cumulative record after byes: 2-3
Cumulative season record : 32-11 (3:1)

after the string of wildcard success and our woes in the playoffs at home Id agree with you but this team is way to banged up to be playing the steelers with what we have back in the secondary and on the line.

 

[Wolfpack]

The ESPN and other (web)sites citing best record in the conf is BS.

The whole discussion about tiebreakers with 5 games left is BS.

If the Patriots keep winning, they'll be fine. 'Nuff said.

 

[Wolfpack]

I am not joking. Byes haven't proved particularly helpful, especially in the playoffs.

So you think it's better to play 2 games in the first 2 rounds (assuming, that is, you actually win the first) than it is to have the first round off (newsflash: you can't get eliminated if you don't play!) and a home game in the 2nd round?

Sorry, but that's idiotic. And by the way, the Patriots didn't have a bye before that Ravens game so your statistics are as flawed as your conclusions.

 

[Observer]

So you think it's better to play 2 games in the first 2 rounds (assuming, that is, you actually win the first) than it is to have the first round off (newsflash: you can't get eliminated if you don't play!) and a home game in the 2nd round?

Sorry, but that's idiotic. And by the way, the Patriots didn't have a bye before that Ravens game so your statistics are as flawed as your conclusions.

True, my bad on the Ravens game. But this team desperately needs to learn to win a do-or-die game. Better to do that against weaker competition. One extra week of playing is good for a team that hasn't really gelled.

 

[alvinnf]

1. Ravens
2. Pats
3. Houston
4. Oakland
5. Pitt
6. Tenn

 

[Wolfpack]

True, my bad on the Ravens game. But this team desperately needs to learn to win a do-or-die game. Better to do that against weaker competition. One extra week of playing is good for a team that hasn't really gelled.

Yeah, that's one of the dumbest things I've ever heard. Fact is that during the Brady era, with one exception, the Patriots have always made the Super Bowl when they've had the first round bye, but never made the Super Bowl when they didn't.

Yes, that "one exception" is from their most recent season, but the overall trend clearly says they do better with the bye than without it.

 

[supafly]

I think the whole 'recent bye' problem is overstated.

I will assume that it had more to do with tough competition than it did with the bye.

2010--A tough divisional game against a team (NYJ) who beat us in 2 of the last 4 (at that point in time)

2011--Again...a very tough game on the road this time, against a team (PIT) who had lost 6 out of the past 7 or 8 games vs us. Not only did they play a great game, but the law of averages will likely say that you are not going to win EVERY TIME against a team of that caliber.

And both were by a score, meaning that as bad as we played, and as great as they played, the Pats still had a chance to tie or win at the end.

It's not like we've lost to "regular" teams coming off the bye...to me there's hardly enough of a sample size to worry about the recent woes of having the bye week.

With this specific team this yr, we have to get guys rested up. You have to have a feeling that N.England will be well-prepared, well-rested, and that they will be firing on all cylinders.

 

[Brady'sButtBoy]

Of course getting a bye is better, recent history doesn't matter, a bye is better.

And with Houston destined to lose at least two more games, and Oakland facing a brutal stretch, The Pats could even go 4-1 to finish and still get a bye since only division winners can get a bye. The Pats go 5-0 and they will have a bye for certain and could even be number 1 if someone can beat the Ravens (their schedule is pretty easy except for closing with Cincy).

Thus it doesn't matter if the Bengals, Ravens, Steelers all have better records - only one can get a bye. Let's hope the Ravens don't win the division unless we end up with a better record than them. They are Brady's kryptonite and playing them at home, no matter what happened last time, will always be an advantage.

 

[supafly]

Of course getting a bye is better, recent history doesn't matter, a bye is better.

And with Houston destined to lose at least two more games, and Oakland facing a brutal stretch, The Pats could even go 4-1 to finish and still get a bye since only division winners can get a bye. The Pats go 5-0 and they will have a bye for certain and could even be number 1 if someone can beat the Ravens (their schedule is pretty easy except for closing with Cincy).

Thus it doesn't matter if the Bengals, Ravens, Steelers all have better records - only one can get a bye. Let's hope the Ravens don't win the division unless we end up with a better record than them. They are Brady's kryptonite and playing them at home, no matter what happened last time, will always be an advantage.

It will be tough to win in Baltimore, absolutely tough.

The only problem with Baltimore NOT winning their division is that we could essentially get them AND have to go to Pittsburgh for the AFCCG. I have no problem going to PIT for that game, and would prefer it over going to BAL, but since the Steelers hold the tie-breaker over us, they'd be the #1 if its not Baltimore.

In that scenario, we'd be a #2, and PIT would be a #1. The problem with that is we'd likely have to play Baltimore in our first game, (unless the #6 seed would beat the #3), AND have to play the Steelers too, which is obviously not ideal.

I want one of those old-fashioned, "easier" games in game one at home vs HOU or the winner of the AFC West. Then we could deal with going on the road to the AFCCG, and playing one tough game. We could essentially get that matchup by being the #2 and playing a #3 or #4 in our first game at home.

It just seems as though we have gotten some tough matchups in the past couple of yrs right off the bat, and I'm wondering if having the bye as a #2 with BAL being a #1 would not benefit us more? The Steelers would be a #5, and would have a good shot at beating BAL on the road. Then we'd host them in the AFCCG.

Either way, no matter what, it's too early to tell and the playoffs will be difficult any way you look at it. My thinking is that BAL and PIT could take each other out in the first game, as BAL would host PIT (where we root for PIT obviously, and actually ending up hosting them in the AFCCG)

 

[Wax Frog]

I want one of those old-fashioned, "easier" games in game one at home vs HOU or the winner of the AFC West. Then we could deal with going on the road to the AFCCG, and playing one tough game. We could essentially get that matchup by being the #2 and playing a #3 or #4 in our first game at home.

Avoiding a PIT/BAL twofer is preferable, but if it comes to that, so what? If you can't beat the best you don't deserve a shot at the title.

 

[supafly]

Avoiding a PIT/BAL twofer is preferable, but if it comes to that, so what? If you can't beat the best you don't deserve a shot at the title.

I hear ya.

Sometimes lucking out with a favorable matchup in one of the games can do wonders for your Super Bowl hopes though (see the Pittsburgh Steelers).

Winning one very hard game is one thing, but winning two severely reduces your odds in my opinion.

I am just speaking of the best case scenario, and who I am personally pulling for.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Dumb question. But, why would be seeded ahead of Baltimore if we have the same record? Same conference record. They have better common opponents since they beat Pittsburgh and we haven't played anyone they lost to. Seattle, Jax and Tennessee.

 

[Fencer]

With luck, we get the Oakland-Cincy winner or somebody like that in the divisional round, and the Balt-Pitt winner in the AFCC round -- at home.

 

[Wolfpack]

Dumb question. But, why would be seeded ahead of Baltimore if we have the same record? Same conference record. They have better common opponents since they beat Pittsburgh and we haven't played anyone they lost to. Seattle, Jax and Tennessee.

Right now the Patriots own the tiebreaker because the Ravens and Patriots do not have the minimum required number of common opponents for that tie breaker to come into play. But if both win out, that would change and the Ravens would control the tie breaker because they would be 5-0 against Pitts, Indy, NYJ and SD but the Pats would only be 4-1.

However if both teams finish, for example, 12-4 then the tiebreakers would depend greatly on whom each team's 4th loss was to.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Right now the Patriots own the tiebreaker because the Ravens and Patriots do not have the minimum required number of common opponents for that tie breaker to come into play. But if both win out, that would change and the Ravens would control the tie breaker because they would be 5-0 against Pitts, Indy, NYJ and SD but the Pats would only be 4-1.

However if both teams finish, for example, 12-4 then the tiebreakers would depend greatly on whom each team's 4th loss was to.

Would hate to play in Baltimore. May not come to that though. I think Balt and NE both win out. 13-3. They got top seed and we are 2nd. I think Houston and Oakland finish 10-6. Oakland would get the 3 seed since they beat Houston. Oakland beats Cincy the 6th seed and visits Foxboro in Divisional Round. Pitt beats Houston and visits Baltimore. Tough to beat Steelers 3x. They could upset Baltimore and visit us for AFCCG.

 

[D-Money]

I dont think this team is capable of winning 3 games in the post-season.I think getting a BYE is important for this team.They need to win a damn post-season game this year!This defense is gonna have to miraculously play well come the playoffs.