The stats just jump out at you: 5477 yards, 55 touchdowns, 115.1 rating, 4 receivers with 10+ touchdown receptions, 5 receivers with 60+ receptions and 500+ receiving yards.
Just how are the Patriots going to deal with the record-setting passing attack of Denver?
Let's walk through it one by one.
First, Peyton Manning. We all know he is one of the most intelligent QBs ever to play the game. He knows all the reads, makes the right calls, knows who is going to be open. Rarely does he make a horrible decision. He is not mobile at all, but, like Brady, he shifts around in the pocket pretty well. He still has a good arm, and it's very accurate, though he doesn't throw a tight spiral. He slices apart blitzes, but, like most QBs, has trouble with pressure up the middle. His arm strength isn't what it once was, but he can still make all the throws, at any distance.
Now, the receivers.
(1) Demariyus Thomas. 92 rec, 1430 yds, 14 td. Absolute stud. Occasional case of the dropsies, but my goodness, what a weapon. Big, fast, generally good hands, incredibly athletic, and absolute nightmare.
(2) Eric Decker. 87 rec, 1288 yds, 11 td. Another good-sized receiver, can run all the patterns.
(3) Wes Welker. 73 rec, 778 yds, 10 td. We all know what Welker is about. Very tough slot matchup. Coming off a couple of concussions, however. Might bear watching if he takes a big shot.
(4) Julius Thomas. 65 rec, 788 yds, 12 td. Gifted, athletic tight end. Very tough matchup for linebackers.
(5) Knowshon Moreno. 60 rec, 548 yds, 3 td. Excellent receiver out of the backfield, can put up big numbers either rushing or receiving.
Now, the Patriots have been ridiculed for their pass defense for years. But this year, whether the pundits want to admit it or not, it has been much better.
- #9 in the NFL in opposing passer rating
- #4 in the NFL in opposing pass completion %
- #13 in the NFL in opposing yards per pass attempt
- #5 in the NFL in sacks, #6 in sack yardage
- #12 in the NFL in interceptions
So the Patriots' pass defense has actually been solidly above-average at a minimum this year, and in reality probably a little better than that. It's not a bad pass defense; on the contrary, it's pretty good.
But it's the individual matchups that really interest me. They may play a lot of zone to stay away from Denver's pick plays, but if they go man, here's how I can envision it looking:
- Talib on D. Thomas. Talib does his best work on bigger receivers (Andre Johnson, Jimmy Graham, etc.). He has the speed and strength to match up well with Thomas.
- Dennard on Decker. Dennard is physical, and Decker does not appear to do as well against physical corners. A healthy Dennard makes a huge difference for the Pats.
- Arrington or Ryan on Welker. Arrington is a solid slot corner, but Ryan has turned in an exceptional rookie season. He is the #2 CB in the NFL in terms of opposing passer rating on balls thrown to him (Richard Sherman is #1).
- Arrington or Ryan on Caldwell. Should Denver go 4 WR, Caldwell comes in, and then both Arrington and Ryan stay in.
- Collins on J. Thomas. He has the size and athleticism to stick to Thomas. He has really begun to break out the past few games, and might be a key player in the game.
- Fletcher on Moreno. Fletcher is a solid cover LB.
And then there's McCourty, who could, depending on who is in, play man against either of the Thomases or Decker. Or he could play centerfield and help on the deep balls.
Long story short, I think the Pats actually do have the horses to provide good coverage against Denver's receiving weapons. In their first game, D.Thomas had 4 rec, 41 yds, and 1 td. Welker had 4 rec, 31 yds. Decker had 1 rec, 5 yds. J.Thomas didn't play, but Jacob Tamme had 5 rec, 47 yds. Manning was just 19-36 for 150 yds, 2 td, 1 int.
Then it comes to the pass rush. In their first game, NE only had 1 sack and 4 QB hits. But the pass rush has improved since their last game, with the emergence of Chris Jones and Jamie Collins.
I think that there's no real way to *stop* Denver's passing offense. But the Patriots do have the resources to keep it mostly in check (<300 yds). I think they will once again put a lot of DBs out there and invite Denver to run, and the run defense is bolstered by the presence of Siliga, so I don't think they'll find it as easy going as last time.
I think NE can hold Denver's record-setting offense in check this Sunday.
Just how are the Patriots going to deal with the record-setting passing attack of Denver?
Let's walk through it one by one.
First, Peyton Manning. We all know he is one of the most intelligent QBs ever to play the game. He knows all the reads, makes the right calls, knows who is going to be open. Rarely does he make a horrible decision. He is not mobile at all, but, like Brady, he shifts around in the pocket pretty well. He still has a good arm, and it's very accurate, though he doesn't throw a tight spiral. He slices apart blitzes, but, like most QBs, has trouble with pressure up the middle. His arm strength isn't what it once was, but he can still make all the throws, at any distance.
Now, the receivers.
(1) Demariyus Thomas. 92 rec, 1430 yds, 14 td. Absolute stud. Occasional case of the dropsies, but my goodness, what a weapon. Big, fast, generally good hands, incredibly athletic, and absolute nightmare.
(2) Eric Decker. 87 rec, 1288 yds, 11 td. Another good-sized receiver, can run all the patterns.
(3) Wes Welker. 73 rec, 778 yds, 10 td. We all know what Welker is about. Very tough slot matchup. Coming off a couple of concussions, however. Might bear watching if he takes a big shot.
(4) Julius Thomas. 65 rec, 788 yds, 12 td. Gifted, athletic tight end. Very tough matchup for linebackers.
(5) Knowshon Moreno. 60 rec, 548 yds, 3 td. Excellent receiver out of the backfield, can put up big numbers either rushing or receiving.
Now, the Patriots have been ridiculed for their pass defense for years. But this year, whether the pundits want to admit it or not, it has been much better.
- #9 in the NFL in opposing passer rating
- #4 in the NFL in opposing pass completion %
- #13 in the NFL in opposing yards per pass attempt
- #5 in the NFL in sacks, #6 in sack yardage
- #12 in the NFL in interceptions
So the Patriots' pass defense has actually been solidly above-average at a minimum this year, and in reality probably a little better than that. It's not a bad pass defense; on the contrary, it's pretty good.
But it's the individual matchups that really interest me. They may play a lot of zone to stay away from Denver's pick plays, but if they go man, here's how I can envision it looking:
- Talib on D. Thomas. Talib does his best work on bigger receivers (Andre Johnson, Jimmy Graham, etc.). He has the speed and strength to match up well with Thomas.
- Dennard on Decker. Dennard is physical, and Decker does not appear to do as well against physical corners. A healthy Dennard makes a huge difference for the Pats.
- Arrington or Ryan on Welker. Arrington is a solid slot corner, but Ryan has turned in an exceptional rookie season. He is the #2 CB in the NFL in terms of opposing passer rating on balls thrown to him (Richard Sherman is #1).
- Arrington or Ryan on Caldwell. Should Denver go 4 WR, Caldwell comes in, and then both Arrington and Ryan stay in.
- Collins on J. Thomas. He has the size and athleticism to stick to Thomas. He has really begun to break out the past few games, and might be a key player in the game.
- Fletcher on Moreno. Fletcher is a solid cover LB.
And then there's McCourty, who could, depending on who is in, play man against either of the Thomases or Decker. Or he could play centerfield and help on the deep balls.
Long story short, I think the Pats actually do have the horses to provide good coverage against Denver's receiving weapons. In their first game, D.Thomas had 4 rec, 41 yds, and 1 td. Welker had 4 rec, 31 yds. Decker had 1 rec, 5 yds. J.Thomas didn't play, but Jacob Tamme had 5 rec, 47 yds. Manning was just 19-36 for 150 yds, 2 td, 1 int.
Then it comes to the pass rush. In their first game, NE only had 1 sack and 4 QB hits. But the pass rush has improved since their last game, with the emergence of Chris Jones and Jamie Collins.
I think that there's no real way to *stop* Denver's passing offense. But the Patriots do have the resources to keep it mostly in check (<300 yds). I think they will once again put a lot of DBs out there and invite Denver to run, and the run defense is bolstered by the presence of Siliga, so I don't think they'll find it as easy going as last time.
I think NE can hold Denver's record-setting offense in check this Sunday.
