Things we know:
- Brady under contract til 2017
- Draftee has only a 4-year max contract 2014,15,16,17
- Brady has no serious health issues presently
- You dont NEED a top 5 QB to make it to/ or/ win a SB (recent history: grossman, kapernick /or/ eli, flacco, anyone)
Assumptions - things we likely know to be true:
- Mallet will not be on Pats in 2015 (will look elsewhere for a pay-day or an opportunity to start unless TB badly injured and he thinks he can take his job)
- If you want a rookie or year-2/3 (of playing) guy to take you to a SB, he better be a #1 pick.
(R wilson is exception to this, but he dropped 2 rounds cause of his height (madden said he would have been #1 overall if not for his height) and you can argue the D took seattle to the sb, not the qb [3 TDs, 524yds and 2 fumbles in 3 games aint exactly lightning in a bottle])
- You can find a FA vet QB to take you to a SB (warner, p manning, ...)
- You are paying a 1 rnd pick to have an impact -- THAT MEANS STARTER or starter in waiting (1 yr) if a QB.
So my conclusions:
- If Pats draft a QB THIS YEAR; they are drafting MALLETS REPLACEMENT and not TB's replacement.
- So, Drafting a qb in rd 1 is a WASTE .
- Drafting a qb in rd 2-3 is GENERALLY NOT going to get you a guy who will CARRY you to a SB in 2017-18 and is INEFFICIENT USE of draft capital when comparing QB quality in rd2-3 vs rd4-5.
Therefore, they should draft somebody in Rd 4-6 who can be a solid backup, and not look to hit a homerun top 5 QB talent right now.
For TB's REPLACEMENT Pats need to wait 1-2 years and either draft a #1 round pick, look for a real good FA, or do both and let them compete.
So, I am not getting all excited about these QB visits, much ado about nothing but BB due diligence and prep work IMHO.