Have opinions of Phillip Dorsett changed?

[QuantumMechanic]

The defender had a lot to do with that drop. Personally I think that's not actually a drop. Dorsett had the ball in his hands and would not have dropped it if the DB hadn't made a play. That's not a "drop." It's a good play by the defender.

It's sorta both.

Dorsett did not drop it. He failed to catch it cleanly and the DB alertly punched it away mid-bobble. However, Dorsett almost certainly would have secured it if the DB hadn't punched it out. It's not like it clanged off or went through Dorsett's hands.

So it was a good play by the defender -- if he doesn't make the play, Dorsett catches it. However, if Dorsett had caught it cleanly in the first place the defender wouldn't have had the chance to punch it free. So ultimately the incompletion is on Dorsett. But it's not a drop.

 

[supafly]

It’s good that Dorsett seems to be buying into the Patriot Way in the sense that he seems to be working hard, saying the right things, and adding to his knowledge of the system and overall chemistry with Brady. You can see a difference from last year through Sunday’s game.

It’s still not enough to say that my opinion of him has changed that much, but if McDaniels continues to be creative, Dorsett should see enough opportunities to where he contributes 45-50 catches, and that’s a good thing. His TD catch on Sunday was impressive. We’ll see where he goes from here.

 

[maineman209]

It's sorta both.

Dorsett did not drop it. He failed to catch it cleanly and the DB alertly punched it away mid-bobble. However, Dorsett almost certainly would have secured it if the DB hadn't punched it out. It's not like it clanged off or went through Dorsett's hands.

So it was a good play by the defender -- if he doesn't make the play, Dorsett catches it. However, if Dorsett had caught it cleanly in the first place the defender wouldn't have had the chance to punch it free. So ultimately the incompletion is on Dorsett. But it's not a drop.

There's also something to be said about "degree of difficulty." It's not as if Dorsett had a Martavis Bryant moment there (not that Bryant is really all that good, anyway).

 

[maineman209]

It’s good that Dorsett seems to be buying into the Patriot Way in the sense that he seems to be working hard, saying the right things, and adding to his knowledge of the system and overall chemistry with Brady. You can see a difference from last year through Sunday’s game.

It’s still not enough to say that my opinion of him has changed that much, but if McDaniels continues to be creative, Dorsett should see enough opportunities to where he contributes 45-50 catches, and that’s a good thing. His TD catch on Sunday was impressive. We’ll see where he goes from here.

Somewhere in the range of 45-60 catches and 450-600 yards and 3-5 TDs (with a 65%-70% catch rate) is all the Pats need from Dorsett. It's really about all they need from Gordon, too.

As long and Gronk and Edelman stay relatively healthy (knock on wood).

 

[patsbrasilpatriotas]

No. He is an amazing WR3/4

 

[Kdo5]

No. He is an amazing WR3/4

A little strong with the wording. He could be capable of being a decent #3 or #4.

 

[maineman209]

A little strong with the wording. He could be capable of being a decent #3 or #4.

Through four games, Dorsett is the Pats #1 WR in ...
- targets = 21 (#2 Hogan has 15)
- receptions = 16 (#2 Hogan is tied with Patterson at 8)
- receiving yards = 165 (#2 Hogan has 109)
- and catch rate = 76% (#2 Hogan is at 53%)

... all of which makes him the Pats #3 pass-catcher behind only Gronk and White.

It's entirely possible that Dorsett remains the #2/#3 WR after Edelman is activated, and even if Gordon gets going.

Pre-emptively pigeonholing him as merely a "decent" #3/#4 WR kind of ignores what he and Brady have accomplished together thus far.

 

[goheels22002]

Dorsett is not operating in a vacuum. The receiving corps got better instantaneously on Monday with the re-instatement of Edelman who will need time to get up to speed. Defensive Coordinators face decisions with the arrival of Gordon and Edelman as an inside/outside duo. They almost have to use lots of zone coverage which Brady picks apart.

Dorsett is going to have favorable match ups. He'll be looking at the #3 CB in most man-to-man while the #1 and #2 will be busy with Gronk. Edelman and Gordon. Hogan will be running with #4 CBs, safeties and linebackers in five-wide sets.

The emergence of Sony Michel as true #1 RB is huge. At least two LBs have to stay home with Michel in the backfield freeing up the receivers and Gronk to work 4 against 5 in most cases. Give Brady time and three guys in single coverage, and...

Hollister's return is the next shoe to drop which can take some of the load off of Gronk.

 

[Kdo5]

Through four games, Dorsett is the Pats #1 WR in ...
- targets = 21 (#2 Hogan has 15)
- receptions = 16 (#2 Hogan is tied with Patterson at 8)
- receiving yards = 165 (#2 Hogan has 109)
- and catch rate = 76% (#2 Hogan is at 53%)

... all of which makes him the Pats #3 pass-catcher behind only Gronk and White.

It's entirely possible that Dorsett remains the #2/#3 WR after Edelman is activated, and even if Gordon gets going.

Pre-emptively pigeonholing him as merely a "decent" #3/#4 WR kind of ignores what he and Brady have accomplished together thus far.

Well to me he is going to be our #4 based on two beliefs.

1) Gordon is going to give us more of what we saw in his two catches Sunday. His talent level and ability is well above PD and if he has a good grasp of the offense I can't imagine him not being our #2.

2) Hogan starts getting his favorable matchups and we'll see the good version of him. I'm curious about this, I think he'll return to being the productive version of himself. If we get that he is #3.

PD is the #1 receiver of one of the very worst receiving groups in the league. That's not much to pat him on the back for. He could turn out to be good but I'm not convinced yet.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Through four games, Dorsett is the Pats #1 WR in ...
- targets = 21 (#2 Hogan has 15)
- receptions = 16 (#2 Hogan is tied with Patterson at 8)
- receiving yards = 165 (#2 Hogan has 109)
- and catch rate = 76% (#2 Hogan is at 53%)

... all of which makes him the Pats #3 pass-catcher behind only Gronk and White.

It's entirely possible that Dorsett remains the #2/#3 WR after Edelman is activated, and even if Gordon gets going.

Pre-emptively pigeonholing him as merely a "decent" #3/#4 WR kind of ignores what he and Brady have accomplished together thus far.

If Gordon "gets going", Dorsett is behind him. If JE "gets going", Dorsett is behind him as well. Josh is a freak and JE is Tom's binkie.

With that said, to your point it's not a guarantee they both "get going" so we shouldn't jump to that conclusion. I suspect it'll take JE a few games to rediscover himself and feel 100% (if at all). Personally I'd like to see them slow roll him and ensure hes fresh in January. Hes 32 now.

I suspect it'll be the same for Josh as he continues to learn the offense. If he continues to improve, his workload and snaps will increase. If Josh becomes "Flash" and Tom's new BFF he won't come off the field.

I'm not 100% sure how many times the NEP roll with a pure 11 or 02 personnel but if they do it'll be Dorsett, Patt or Hogan in the mix.

As much as I love the potential of Hollister here, hes a wild card.

 

[Kontradiction]

If Gordon "gets going", Dorsett is behind him. If JE "gets going", Dorsett is behind him as well. Josh is a freak and JE is Tom's binkie.

With that said, to your point it's not a guarantee they both "get going" so we shouldn't jump to that conclusion. I suspect it'll take JE a few games to rediscover himself and feel 100% (if at all). Personally I'd like to see them slow roll him and ensure hes fresh in January. Hes 32 now.

I suspect it'll be the same for Josh as he continues to learn the offense. If he continues to improve, his workload and snaps will increase. If Josh becomes "Flash" and Tom's new BFF he won't come off the field.

I'm not 100% sure how many times the NEP roll with a pure 11 or 02 personnel but if they do it'll be Dorsett, Patt or Hogan in the mix.

As much as I love the potential of Hollister here, hes a wild card.

Dorsett will be competing with Hogan for snaps. Bird Boy Lazar tweeted that Hogan was getting open against Miami but Brady never really got to him in his progression. As soon as the word about Edelman came down, I said that I expect a slow start out of Hogan. He should be able to get it going now with Edelman back and if he doesn't, it's Dorsett's job to lose.

 

[condon84]

Night and day from where he was last year to this year. If that trend continues and he keeps improving, he certainly has the physical traits (4.29 40 with quickness) to be considered a #1 receiver.

I like that he take short passes and make people miss, he's shown that he can find those open spots in the intermediate area, and he can also go deep.

His rapport with Brady has gotten significantly better and he's only 25. People should be more excited about him.

 

[maineman209]

Well to me he is going to be our #4 based on two beliefs.

1) Gordon is going to give us more of what we saw in his two catches Sunday. His talent level and ability is well above PD and if he has a good grasp of the offense I can't imagine him not being our #2.

2) Hogan starts getting his favorable matchups and we'll see the good version of him. I'm curious about this, I think he'll return to being the productive version of himself. If we get that he is #3.

PD is the #1 receiver of one of the very worst receiving groups in the league. That's not much to pat him on the back for. He could turn out to be good but I'm not convinced yet.

You appear to be making a lot of assumptions about what McD will do with all of Brady's potential passing targets to justify taking a player who's current catching 76% of his 5 tgts per game and dropping him down to fewer than 2 tgts/game.

I think the question is, what is there about a 76% catch rate on 5 tgts/game, and 2 TDs out of 21 tgts, that convinces you that Dorsett is NOT "good"? Was Amendola "not good"?

 

[maineman209]

Dorsett will be competing with Hogan for snaps. Bird Boy Lazar tweeted that Hogan was getting open against Miami but Brady never really got to him in his progression. As soon as the word about Edelman came down, I said that I expect a slow start out of Hogan. He should be able to get it going now with Edelman back and if he doesn't, it's Dorsett's job to lose.

Hogan has averaged 91% of the O-snaps this season so far. Dorsett has been averaging 81%.

 

[Kontradiction]

Hogan has averaged 91% of the O-snaps this season so far. Dorsett has been averaging 81%.

I meant competing now with Hogan back. The third WR is a competition between he and Hogan now.

 

[maineman209]

Night and day from where he was last year to this year. If that trend continues and he keeps improving, he certainly has the physical traits (4.29 40 with quickness) to be considered a #1 receiver.

I like that he take short passes and make people miss, he's shown that he can find those open spots in the intermediate area, and he can also go deep.

His rapport with Brady has gotten significantly better and he's only 25. People should be more excited about him.

Dorsett's developmental curve with the Pats has been interesting.

From a "cold start" in the system, he caught only 4 of 8 tgts in the first 8 games of 2017, but with a ypc of 21.0. McD appeared to be trying to use him as an alternate deep threat to Cooks and Gronk.

In the second 8 games, after the BYE and Hogan's injury, McD seemed to use him more in the intermediate-range routes that Hogan had been running (in the absence of Edelman, Mitchell, and Bennett). Dorsett responded by catching 8 of 10 at a 13.6 ypc. He also caught 2 of 3 tgts for 50 yards (25.0 ypc) in the post-season.

This season (after finally getting his first OTAs and Camp), in the first four games, McD appears to have used Dorsett almost exclusively in short/intermediate routes (Edelman/Amendola range, 10.3 ypc). And Dorsett has responded with a 76% catch rate and two TDs.

So, in a season and a quarter, Dorsett has run most of the overall route porfolio and has been very successful in the ranges that the Pats typically attack most frequently. He's also been an excellent downfield blocker since at least the BYE in 2017. I just don't see him being demoted to 1-2 tgts/game (typical of a Pats #4WR) anytime soon.

For me, going forward with Edelman back and Gordon (presumably) developing, the "attack levels" personnel breaks out as follows:

Intermediate > Deep:
- Gronk
- Hogan (his most successful range, based on 2016/2017)
- Gordon (potentially)

Intermediate > Short:
- Edelman
- Dorsett
- Hollister

Short:
- White
- Patterson
- Michel (potentially)

 

[condon84]

Dorsett's developmental curve with the Pats has been interesting.

From a "cold start" in the system, he caught only 4 of 8 tgts in the first 8 games of 2017, but with a ypc of 21.0. McD appeared to be trying to use him as an alternate deep threat to Cooks and Gronk.

In the second 8 games, after the BYE and Hogan's injury, McD seemed to use him more in the intermediate-range routes that Hogan had been running (in the absence of Edelman, Mitchell, and Bennett). Dorsett responded by catching 8 of 10 at a 13.6 ypc. He also caught 2 of 3 tgts for 50 yards (25.0 ypc) in the post-season.

This season (after finally getting his first OTAs and Camp), in the first four games, McD appears to have used Dorsett almost exclusively in short/intermediate routes (Edelman/Amendola range, 10.3 ypc). And Dorsett has responded with a 76% catch rate and two TDs.

So, in a season and a quarter, Dorsett has run most of the overall route porfolio and has been very successful in the ranges that the Pats typically attack most frequently. He's also been an excellent downfield blocker since at least the BYE in 2017. I just don't see him being demoted to 1-2 tgts/game (typical of a Pats #4WR) anytime soon.

For me, going forward with Edelman back and Gordon (presumably) developing, the "attack levels" personnel breaks out as follows:

Intermediate > Deep:
- Gronk
- Hogan (his most successful range, based on 2016/2017)
- Gordon (potentially)

Intermediate > Short:
- Edelman
- Dorsett
- Hollister

Short:
- White
- Patterson
- Michel (potentially)

Our offense is so gameplan and matchup specific that it would not surprise me if he continues to be targeted on all levels.

What's encouraging is that he can perform on all levels. I think they see him as an important cog in this offense for the forseeable future. I hope he continues to develop.

 

[maineman209]

I meant competing now with Hogan back. The third WR is a competition between he and Hogan now.

I'm guessing that you meant to type "with Edelman back"?

If Dorsett and Hogan are competing for the #3 WR spot, that appears to assume that Edelman and Gordon are #1/#2.

I think it's a fairly good bet that Edelman quickly becomes #1 in tgts overall, even if he's not quite the 2016 version. I'm not yet confident that Gordon quickly becomes the #2WR in tgts. Even so, that probably only puts him somewhere in the Top 4 in tgts overall (with Gronk and White in the mix).

I'm guessing that the #2, #3 and #4 WR spots (equivalent to the #5, #6, #7, or even #8 in overall tgts) are a competition among Gordon, Hogan and Dorsett for the moment.

Dorsett appears to have a bit more route-level versatility than Hogan, and has been more successful than Hogan in the short-intermediate levels than Hogan. With Edelman perhaps coming back to form slowly, that may have a lot of value, at least initially since Brady and McD typically attack that range the most frequently (when they have the personnel).

Hogan may then be in competition with Gordon for intermediate > deep routes, which McD/Brady typically target less frequently, even when they have the personnel.

I think that the ultimate tgt distribution will evolve over the course of the season, and probably not in a smooth line as the distribution may vary radically from week-to-week, opponent-to-opponent, depending on where the attack opportunities are.

 

[Coolade2]

All pieces falling into place for this offense... What's not to like..?

Only thing that could derail a dominant performance is a botched game plan due to an embarrassment of riches. McD needs to stay aggressive and creative and get ball to all playmakers... I would feed all 1 on 1 match UPS.. Gronk, Patterson, white, Edelman, and Gordon. Wow, who can play man against this group..? (also Dorsett..lol)

 

[Kontradiction]

I'm guessing that you meant to type "with Edelman back"?

If Dorsett and Hogan are competing for the #3 WR spot, that appears to assume that Edelman and Gordon are #1/#2.

I think it's a fairly good bet that Edelman quickly becomes #1 in tgts overall, even if he's not quite the 2016 version. I'm not yet confident that Gordon quickly becomes the #2WR in tgts. Even so, that probably only puts him somewhere in the Top 4 in tgts overall (with Gronk and White in the mix).

I'm guessing that the #2, #3 and #4 WR spots (equivalent to the #5, #6, #7, or even #8 in overall tgts) are a competition among Gordon, Hogan and Dorsett for the moment.

Dorsett appears to have a bit more route-level versatility than Hogan, and has been more successful than Hogan in the short-intermediate levels than Hogan. With Edelman perhaps coming back to form slowly, that may have a lot of value, at least initially since Brady and McD typically attack that range the most frequently (when they have the personnel).

Hogan may then be in competition with Gordon for intermediate > deep routes, which McD/Brady typically target less frequently, even when they have the personnel.

I think that the ultimate tgt distribution will evolve over the course of the season, and probably not in a smooth line as the distribution may vary radically from week-to-week, opponent-to-opponent, depending on where the attack opportunities are.

I think it's fairly certain that, unless he relapses or gets in trouble again, Gordon is going to be the flanker in this offense. Hogan/Dorsett and Edelman will split snaps as the split end and the slot. Gordon's skill set compared with the other bodies in the WR corps is too good and too unique to not have him on the field for the majority of the offensive snaps, given health.