edkk323
Third String But Playing on Special Teams
- Joined
- Dec 7, 2012
- Messages
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The topic of the Patriots being terrible at drafting comes up in almost every post. Whenever I stated my argument and reasoning, someone always typed “we were either average or below average” without giving any circumstantial evidence.
I spent one hour gathering all the data of the 1st to 200th draftees from 2012 to 2017. I used pro-football-reference.com’s weighted career approximate value (CarAV). CarAV is computed by adding the 100% AV of one player’s best yr, 95% of his second best, 90% of his third best and so on.
Explanations:
1. CarAV favors the veterans. They have more time to produce AV.
2. I need to use some kind of benchmark instead of being a troll without any proof. CarAV is as good as any. CarAV might be biased but will be biased for every players and every team.
4. Why 2012 to 2017? Why not 2013-2016? Why not 2012, 2014 and 2016? You can always nitpick some year to make a team look bad.
5. Even though we can draft good players, we might not be able to keep them. This post is about drafting.
6. Injury spares no one.
7. But we truly suck at it by drafting IR-Dowling, Tavon Wilson, Jordan Richards and Cyrus Johns. LOL.
The total players: 1200
The total CarAV of the other 31 teams:11253
The average of the 31 teams: 363
The total CarAV of the NEP: 367
Things went against us:
We picked at bottom very year.
We had one 1st round stolen in 2016.
We never needed to pick a starting QB who could produce a large CarAV if hit.
Jimmy G got hurt too often.
Compare to some good teams
Rams 478
Seahawks 449
Texans 438
Packers 438
Jags 426
Vikings 424
Chiefs 391
One Time Happy SB Champs 374
Patriots 367
Ravens 363
Colts 336
Steelers 331
Falcons 323
Saints 321
Chargers 316
Broncos 279
Conclusion: We are actually pretty good at drafting given all the circumstances. If you disagree, please provide some HARD evidence.
The List
2012
Round1 Dont'a Hightower
Round 1 Chandler Jones
Round 2 Tavon Wilson
2013
Round2 Jamie Collins
Round2 Aaron Dobson
Round3 Logan Ryan
Round3 Duron Harmon
Round4 Josh Boyce
Round7 Michael Buchanan
Round7 Steve Beauharnais
"Above AVG"
2014
Round1 29 Dominique Easley
Round2 62 Jimmy Garoppolo
Round4 105 Bryan Stork
Round4 130 James White
Round4 140 Cameron Fleming
"Above AVG"
2015
Round 1: DT Malcom Brown, Texas
Round 2: SS Jordan Richards, Stanford
Round 3: DE Geneo Grissom, Oklahoma
Round 4: DE Trey Flowers, Arkansas
Round 4: OG Tre' Jackson, Florida State
Round 4: OG Shaq Mason, Georgia Tech
Round 5: LS Joe Cardona, Navy
"Four starters but one 2rd bust, AVG"
2016
Round2 Cyrus Jones
Round3 Joe Thuney
Round3 Jacoby Brissett
Round3 Vincent Valentine
Round4 Malcolm Mitchell
Round6 Kamu Grugier-Hill
Round6 Elandon Roberts
Round6 Ted Karras
Round7 Devin Lucien
" One starter, one injured WR 3, one QB turned into WR 4, Below AVG"
2017
Round3 Derek Rivers
Round3 Antonio Garcia
Round4 Deatrich Wise Jr.
Round6 Conor McDermott
"One never saw the field, One ok sub"
2018
Round1 Isaiah Wynn( 2017 1st round and one year rental from Cooks)
Round1 Sony Michel
Round2 Duke Dawson
Round5 Ja'Whaun Bentley
Round6 Christian Sam
Round6 Braxton Berrios
Round7 Danny Etling
Round7 Keion Crossen
Round7 Ryan Izzo TE
"5 games in, might as well be avg"
The NFL: Draft Finder Query Results | Pro-Football-Reference.com
The Patriots: Draft Finder Query Results | Pro-Football-Reference.com
BTW, we have one 1st\two 2rd\three 3rd round in 2019.
This Fox article somehow agrees with my rudimentary finding. The Patriots were ranked 17th.
The article did not show their ranking method.
https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/gallery/nfl-draft-teams-picks-draft-records-ranked-2012-present-030117
I spent one hour gathering all the data of the 1st to 200th draftees from 2012 to 2017. I used pro-football-reference.com’s weighted career approximate value (CarAV). CarAV is computed by adding the 100% AV of one player’s best yr, 95% of his second best, 90% of his third best and so on.
Explanations:
1. CarAV favors the veterans. They have more time to produce AV.
2. I need to use some kind of benchmark instead of being a troll without any proof. CarAV is as good as any. CarAV might be biased but will be biased for every players and every team.
4. Why 2012 to 2017? Why not 2013-2016? Why not 2012, 2014 and 2016? You can always nitpick some year to make a team look bad.
5. Even though we can draft good players, we might not be able to keep them. This post is about drafting.
6. Injury spares no one.
7. But we truly suck at it by drafting IR-Dowling, Tavon Wilson, Jordan Richards and Cyrus Johns. LOL.
The total players: 1200
The total CarAV of the other 31 teams:11253
The average of the 31 teams: 363
The total CarAV of the NEP: 367
Things went against us:
We picked at bottom very year.
We had one 1st round stolen in 2016.
We never needed to pick a starting QB who could produce a large CarAV if hit.
Jimmy G got hurt too often.
Compare to some good teams
Rams 478
Seahawks 449
Texans 438
Packers 438
Jags 426
Vikings 424
Chiefs 391
One Time Happy SB Champs 374
Patriots 367
Ravens 363
Colts 336
Steelers 331
Falcons 323
Saints 321
Chargers 316
Broncos 279
Conclusion: We are actually pretty good at drafting given all the circumstances. If you disagree, please provide some HARD evidence.
The List
2012
Round1 Dont'a Hightower
Round 1 Chandler Jones
Round 2 Tavon Wilson
2013
Round2 Jamie Collins
Round2 Aaron Dobson
Round3 Logan Ryan
Round3 Duron Harmon
Round4 Josh Boyce
Round7 Michael Buchanan
Round7 Steve Beauharnais
"Above AVG"
2014
Round1 29 Dominique Easley
Round2 62 Jimmy Garoppolo
Round4 105 Bryan Stork
Round4 130 James White
Round4 140 Cameron Fleming
"Above AVG"
2015
Round 1: DT Malcom Brown, Texas
Round 2: SS Jordan Richards, Stanford
Round 3: DE Geneo Grissom, Oklahoma
Round 4: DE Trey Flowers, Arkansas
Round 4: OG Tre' Jackson, Florida State
Round 4: OG Shaq Mason, Georgia Tech
Round 5: LS Joe Cardona, Navy
"Four starters but one 2rd bust, AVG"
2016
Round2 Cyrus Jones
Round3 Joe Thuney
Round3 Jacoby Brissett
Round3 Vincent Valentine
Round4 Malcolm Mitchell
Round6 Kamu Grugier-Hill
Round6 Elandon Roberts
Round6 Ted Karras
Round7 Devin Lucien
" One starter, one injured WR 3, one QB turned into WR 4, Below AVG"
2017
Round3 Derek Rivers
Round3 Antonio Garcia
Round4 Deatrich Wise Jr.
Round6 Conor McDermott
"One never saw the field, One ok sub"
2018
Round1 Isaiah Wynn( 2017 1st round and one year rental from Cooks)
Round1 Sony Michel
Round2 Duke Dawson
Round5 Ja'Whaun Bentley
Round6 Christian Sam
Round6 Braxton Berrios
Round7 Danny Etling
Round7 Keion Crossen
Round7 Ryan Izzo TE
"5 games in, might as well be avg"
The NFL: Draft Finder Query Results | Pro-Football-Reference.com
The Patriots: Draft Finder Query Results | Pro-Football-Reference.com
BTW, we have one 1st\two 2rd\three 3rd round in 2019.
This Fox article somehow agrees with my rudimentary finding. The Patriots were ranked 17th.
The article did not show their ranking method.
https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/gallery/nfl-draft-teams-picks-draft-records-ranked-2012-present-030117
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