Do the Patriots Suck at Drafting? (Data From 2012-2017)

[edkk323]

The topic of the Patriots being terrible at drafting comes up in almost every post. Whenever I stated my argument and reasoning, someone always typed “we were either average or below average” without giving any circumstantial evidence.

I spent one hour gathering all the data of the 1st to 200th draftees from 2012 to 2017. I used pro-football-reference.com’s weighted career approximate value (CarAV). CarAV is computed by adding the 100% AV of one player’s best yr, 95% of his second best, 90% of his third best and so on.

Explanations:
1. CarAV favors the veterans. They have more time to produce AV.
2. I need to use some kind of benchmark instead of being a troll without any proof. CarAV is as good as any. CarAV might be biased but will be biased for every players and every team.
4. Why 2012 to 2017? Why not 2013-2016? Why not 2012, 2014 and 2016? You can always nitpick some year to make a team look bad.
5. Even though we can draft good players, we might not be able to keep them. This post is about drafting.
6. Injury spares no one.
7. But we truly suck at it by drafting IR-Dowling, Tavon Wilson, Jordan Richards and Cyrus Johns. LOL.


The total players: 1200

The total CarAV of the other 31 teams:11253

The average of the 31 teams: 363

The total CarAV of the NEP: 367


Things went against us:

We picked at bottom very year.

We had one 1st round stolen in 2016.

We never needed to pick a starting QB who could produce a large CarAV if hit.

Jimmy G got hurt too often.


Compare to some good teams

Rams 478
Seahawks 449
Texans 438
Packers 438
Jags 426
Vikings 424
Chiefs 391
One Time Happy SB Champs 374
Patriots 367
Ravens 363
Colts 336
Steelers 331
Falcons 323
Saints 321
Chargers 316
Broncos 279


Conclusion: We are actually pretty good at drafting given all the circumstances. If you disagree, please provide some HARD evidence.



The List
2012
Round1 Dont'a Hightower
Round 1 Chandler Jones
Round 2 Tavon Wilson
2013
Round2 Jamie Collins
Round2 Aaron Dobson
Round3 Logan Ryan
Round3 Duron Harmon
Round4 Josh Boyce
Round7 Michael Buchanan
Round7 Steve Beauharnais
"Above AVG"
2014
Round1 29 Dominique Easley
Round2 62 Jimmy Garoppolo
Round4 105 Bryan Stork
Round4 130 James White
Round4 140 Cameron Fleming
"Above AVG"
2015
Round 1: DT Malcom Brown, Texas
Round 2: SS Jordan Richards, Stanford
Round 3: DE Geneo Grissom, Oklahoma
Round 4: DE Trey Flowers, Arkansas
Round 4: OG Tre' Jackson, Florida State
Round 4: OG Shaq Mason, Georgia Tech
Round 5: LS Joe Cardona, Navy
"Four starters but one 2rd bust, AVG"
2016
Round2 Cyrus Jones
Round3 Joe Thuney
Round3 Jacoby Brissett
Round3 Vincent Valentine
Round4 Malcolm Mitchell
Round6 Kamu Grugier-Hill
Round6 Elandon Roberts
Round6 Ted Karras
Round7 Devin Lucien
" One starter, one injured WR 3, one QB turned into WR 4, Below AVG"
2017
Round3 Derek Rivers
Round3 Antonio Garcia
Round4 Deatrich Wise Jr.
Round6 Conor McDermott
"One never saw the field, One ok sub"
2018
Round1 Isaiah Wynn( 2017 1st round and one year rental from Cooks)
Round1 Sony Michel
Round2 Duke Dawson
Round5 Ja'Whaun Bentley
Round6 Christian Sam
Round6 Braxton Berrios
Round7 Danny Etling
Round7 Keion Crossen
Round7 Ryan Izzo TE
"5 games in, might as well be avg"


The NFL: Draft Finder Query Results | Pro-Football-Reference.com

The Patriots: Draft Finder Query Results | Pro-Football-Reference.com

BTW, we have one 1st\two 2rd\three 3rd round in 2019.

This Fox article somehow agrees with my rudimentary finding. The Patriots were ranked 17th.
The article did not show their ranking method.
https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/gallery/nfl-draft-teams-picks-draft-records-ranked-2012-present-030117

 

[mgteich]

good work

With regard to 2017, we drafted two 3rd rounders, a 4th and a 6th. While we are disappointed, one key contributor is OK. We were somewhat lucky to lose two to injury and illness (Rivers and Garcia).

The draft is only part of an acquisitions strategy, as when we got our #1 WR by using a first and then got back the first the next year.

The topic of the Patriots being terrible at drafting comes up in almost every post. Whenever I stated my argument and reasoning, someone always typed “we were either average or below average” without giving any circumstantial evidence.

I spent one hour gathering all the data of the 1st to 200th draftees from 2012 to 2017. I used pro-football-reference.com’s weighted career approximate value (CarAV). CarAV is computed by adding the 100% AV of one player’s best yr, 95% of his second best, 90% of his third best and so on.

Explanations:
1. CarAV favors the veterans. They have more time to produce AV.
2. I need to use some kind of benchmark instead of being a troll without any proof. CarAV is as good as any. CarAV might be biased but will be biased for every players and every team.
4. Why 2012 to 2017? Why not 2013-2016? Why not 2012, 2014 and 2016? You can always nitpick some year to make a team look bad.
5. Even though we can draft good players, we might not be able to keep them. This post is about drafting.
6. Injury spares no one.
7. But we truly suck at it by drafting IR-Dowling, Tavon Wilson, Jordan Richards and Cyrus Johns. LOL.


The total players: 1200

The total CarAV of the other 31 teams:11253

The average of the 31 teams: 363

The total CarAV of the NEP: 367


Things went against us:

We picked at bottom very year.

We had one 1st round stolen in 2016.

We never needed to pick a starting QB who could produce a large CarAV if hit.

Jimmy G got hurt too often.


Compare to some good teams

Vikings 424
Texans 438
Steelers 331
Seahawks 449
Saints 321
Ravens 363
Rams 478
Packers 438
Jags 426
Falcons 323
One Time Happy SB Champs 374
Colts 336
Chiefs 391
Chargers 316
Broncos 279

Conclusion: We are actually pretty good at drafting given all the circumstances. If you disagree, please provide some HARD evidence.



The List

2013
Round2 Jamie Collins
Round2 Aaron Dobson
Round3 Logan Ryan
Round3 Duron Harmon
Round4 Josh Boyce
Round7 Michael Buchanan
Round7 Steve Beauharnais
"Above AVG"
2014
Round1 29 Dominique Easley
Round2 62 Jimmy Garoppolo
Round4 105 Bryan Stork
Round4 130 James White
Round4 140 Cameron Fleming
"Above AVG"
2015
Round 1: DT Malcom Brown, Texas
Round 2: SS Jordan Richards, Stanford
Round 3: DE Geneo Grissom, Oklahoma
Round 4: DE Trey Flowers, Arkansas
Round 4: OG Tre' Jackson, Florida State
Round 4: OG Shaq Mason, Georgia Tech
Round 5: LS Joe Cardona, Navy
"Four starters but one 2rd bust, AVG"
2016
Round2 Cyrus Jones
Round3 Joe Thuney
Round3 Jacoby Brissett
Round3 Vincent Valentine
Round4 Malcolm Mitchell
Round6 Kamu Grugier-Hill
Round6 Elandon Roberts
Round6 Ted Karras
Round7 Devin Lucien
" One starter, one injured WR 3, one QB turned into WR 4, Below AVG"
2017
Round3 Derek Rivers
Round3 Antonio Garcia
Round4 Deatrich Wise Jr.
Round6 Conor McDermott
"One never saw the field, One ok sub"
2018
Round1 Isaiah Wynn
Round1 Sony Michel
Round2 Duke Dawson
Round5 Ja'Whaun Bentley
Round6 Christian Sam
Round6 Braxton Berrios
Round7 Danny Etling
Round7 Keion Crossen
Round7 Ryan Izzo TE
"5 games in, might as well be avg"


The NFL: Draft Finder Query Results | Pro-Football-Reference.com

The Patriots: Draft Finder Query Results | Pro-Football-Reference.com

 

[edkk323]

good work

With regard to 2017, we drafted two 3rd rounders, a 4th and a 6th. While we are disappointed, one key contributor is OK. We were somewhat lucky to lose two to injury and illness (Rivers and Garcia).

2017 1st round was turned into 1080 yards from Cooks and Isaiah wynn in 2018 who was IRed. That WAS unlucky.

 

[ZoisKing]

I feel like we don't do very well in the 2nd round pretty consistently. That round scares me a little. Based on the snapshot you've listed, that holds true. In my mind, you have to nail your 2nd round picks. Those should be easier to hit on I'd say.

Other than that I feel we're pretty good.

I remember reading some member of a NFL team suggesting that if you can get three players out of a draft then you've done well. That's the number I keep in mind when looking back at a class.

 

[juxtapoz15]

Very good work! When you say in your Things That Went Against Us that "we pick at the bottom of the round every year". You should be able to somehow weight picks based on when they were drafted. You could use the trade value chart to assign the points. I'm not sure how you would do it, but it is just a thought.

I also get frustrated with the "Patriots suck at drafting excuse" especially when talking about the defense. Most top defenses in the league have multiple players picked in the top 10 of drafts. I don't think the Patriots have picked in the top 10 of a draft since Jerod Mayo!

 

[mgteich]

I agree. I would note that such numbers presume that a team has higher picks that we do.

Consistently starting after 25 makes it less reasonable to expect 3 contributors. Also, we should consider trades for those teams that trade a lot.

In 2017, we traded a pick for a #1 WR. That was certainly using a draft pick for a "player". I would therefore hope for 4 players out of 2018: Wynn, Michel, Dawson and Bentley.

I remember reading some member of a NFL team suggesting that if you can get three players out of a draft then you've done well. That's the number I keep in mind when looking back at a class.

 

[edkk323]

Very good work! When you say in your Things That Went Against Us that "we pick at the bottom of the round every year". You should be able to somehow weight picks based on when they were drafted. You could use the trade value chart to assign the points. I'm not sure how you would do it, but it is just a thought.

There is no need to do a draft pick chart VS Return analysis.
1. I just need to prove that the Patriots are doing a above AVG job with LESS.
2. No one is consistently picking at very bottom like we do. Steelers are in the same situation and they are in free fall now.

 

[edkk323]

I feel like we don't do very well in the 2nd round pretty consistently. That round scares me a little. Based on the snapshot you've listed, that holds true. In my mind, you have to nail your 2nd round picks. Those should be easier to hit on I'd say.

Other than that I feel we're pretty good.

I remember reading some member of a NFL team suggesting that if you can get three players out of a draft then you've done well. That's the number I keep in mind when looking back at a class.

You are too hung up on the 2nd round busts. Without all the busts in the 2nd round, we are STILL above avg.

 

[signbabybrady]

This just in:

Bill is good at what he does.

 

[ZoisKing]

You are too hung up on the 2nd round busts. Without all the busts in the 2nd round, we are STILL above avg.

No, I agree with your hard work. My stating that we haven't done well enough in the 2nd for my tastes doesn't discredit your breakdown.

It was just a portion of our draft efforts that historically has been subpar in my eyes. I think it is in a lot of people's eyes. Probably a contributor as to why people think we've done poorly in the draft. To further the point, if we'd done historically well in that round, then we'd likely be a well above average drafting team despite our "last to pick" placing every year per your stats.

 

[brdmaverick]

No, I agree with your hard work. My stating that we haven't done well enough in the 2nd for my tastes doesn't discredit your breakdown.

It was just a portion of our draft efforts that historically has been subpar in my eyes. I think it is in a lot of people's eyes. Probably a contributor as to why people think we've done poorly in the draft. To further the point, if we'd done historically well in that round, then we'd likely be a well above average drafting team despite our "last to pick" placing every year per your stats.

It's a fair point, I remember Bill had the entire media force scratching their heads when he drafted Tavon Wilson because it seemed most teams didn't even have him on their draft board. Of course we took it as "Bill knows what he is doing. In Bill we trust."

Sure that one was wrong, but with so many selections, some are going to go wrong. It happens.

On the flip side you have late round gems like Brady, Edelman, and David Givens.

 

[maineman209]

There is no need to do a draft pick chart VS Return analysis.

I actually did this a few years ago to calculate an ROI-ish number. I used the standard draft chart value as the "investment cost" and the AV figure as the "return". And then I did the same for a few other teams. The Pats "ROI" has been excellent (no surprise), at least a bit better than every other team (including the Packers and Steelers), and phenomenally better than teams like the Browns (but then, a constant stream of high 1st-rounders really inflates the "investment cost" number) .

Once you start incorporating picks received in return for former draftees (e.g., Chandler Jones), plus Comp pick for UFAs, plus the AV derived from picks traded for NFL players, the Pats look even better (although I only did a couple other teams for comparison - it's a lot of work).

BTW the net from the Cooks transactions is ridiculous The Pats "invested" 628 DVC points and their return was 13AV (tied with Gronk in 2017) ... PLUS 734 DVC points. After getting a year of contributions from Cooks, the received more than they originally paid ... 106 DVC, or the equivalent of a high Comp pick at the end of the 3rd round.

 

[Angelpats]

We seem to draft well after the second round so we should trade all our 1st and 2nd round picks and stockpile them until Brady retires so we should have enough picks to field a whole team by then.

 

[varjao]

Hmmm... Yes?

 

[edkk323]

I actually did this a few years ago to calculate an ROI-ish number. I used the standard draft chart value as the "investment cost" and the AV figure as the "return". And then I did the same for a few other teams. The Pats "ROI" has been excellent (no surprise), at least a bit better than every other team (including the Packers and Steelers), and phenomenally better than teams like the Browns (but then, a constant stream of high 1st-rounders really inflates the "investment cost" number) .

Once you start incorporating picks received in return for former draftees (e.g., Chandler Jones), plus Comp pick for UFAs, plus the AV derived from picks traded for NFL players, the Pats look even better (although I only did a couple other teams for comparison - it's a lot of work).

The biggest problem of doing ROI and comparing is this.
The AV numbers from QBs are much much higher than any AV from any other positions.
The Patriots are "screwed" in any AV-related comparison in the recent years.
For example, Russel Wilson contributed 85 points out of Seahawks' 449.
This will never be a exact science.

BTW the net from the Cooks transactions is ridiculous The Pats "invested" 628 DVC points and their return was 13AV (tied with Gronk in 2017) ... PLUS 734 DVC points. After getting a year of contributions from Cooks, the received more than they originally paid ... 106 DVC, or the equivalent of a high Comp pick at the end of the 3rd round.

Bill took advantage of Saints' unstable locker room and Ram getting unsettled about losing Sammy Watkins.

 

[1960Pats]

This topic was brought up in another thread not very long ago.

 

[edkk323]

No, I agree with your hard work. My stating that we haven't done well enough in the 2nd for my tastes doesn't discredit your breakdown.

It was just a portion of our draft efforts that historically has been subpar in my eyes. I think it is in a lot of people's eyes. Probably a contributor as to why people think we've done poorly in the draft. To further the point, if we'd done historically well in that round, then we'd likely be a well above average drafting team despite our "last to pick" placing every year per your stats.

I am not saying Tavon Wilson was a good pick. At some point, we all need to move on from all the 2rd round busts.

I just showed you that every team has a large portion of their draft efforts being subpar. We just do not see it from the other side.

 

[edkk323]

This topic was brought up in another thread not very long ago.

Now we have some "data" to combat their "eye test".

 

[borg]

I'm confused
Your title states "2012-2017"
Your players drafted list shows 2013-2018

 

[maineman209]

The biggest problem of doing ROI and comparing is this.
The AV numbers from QBs are much much higher than any AV from any other positions.
The Patriots are "screwed" in any AV-related comparison in the recent years.
For example, Russel Wilson contributed 85 points out of Seahawks' 449.
This will never be a exact science.



Bill took advantage of Saints' unstable locker room and Ram getting unsettled about losing Sammy Watkins.

AV as a measure of a player's value is seriously flawed in many ways. I actually don't like it at all. However, for the purpose of deriving comparative approximations, it's at least consistent across teams and seasons.

And approximations are all we're after here, not "exact science". Paid analytics people who we've never heard of are likely to have already done a much more thorough job on this, and made something much closer to an "exact science."

In any case, the ROI approximations derived from DVC "investment cost" and AV "return value" can be used in a lot of different comparisons. For example:
- draft classes by position, year-to-year and round-by-round
- team acquisitions by position, including UDFAs (without which there is no complete ROI picture)

Again, approximations, but still capable of demonstrating that common wisdom is often not necessarily wisdom at all.