I'm not buying the Mahomes hype. Andy Reid has not earned his reputation as a QB guru. He got some good years out of McNabb but couldn't get over the hump. After that, his 6 wins with AJ Feeley were smoke and mirrors, Kevin Kolb was a disaster, and Nick Foles didn't do anything until Chip Kelly took over.
KC has plateaued over the past four seasons. They are relying on several aging players (Hali, Maclin, Johnson), have been hit by some roster attrition, their past few drafts have all yielded a couple good players but not much depth, and they've spent big draft capital this year and next for Mahomes, I see them getting worse before they get better.
Houston's roster is built around younger cornerstone players. They have shown they can win with their best player hurt and Osweiler at QB. Watson has a higher floor, and Houston only needs average QB play to contend.