Curran: "In my estimation... [Gonzo would like to] be treated as if he's at the table in 2027." [previous title: "say goodbye to gonzo"]

[Huckleberry1]

Today's Big Lie comes from Foxborough Faithful, who claim that the team is deeply distressed because Mike Vrabel is hospitalized with a serious medical condition.

Foxborough Faithful are also reporting that Alvin Kamara has just signed with the Patriots.

This kind of **** is the reason I don't accept " reports of" as anything other than unmitigated ********.

 

[Ring 6]

Would it benefit the team if we could put a large chunk of the deal on this year's cap? Or does it set a bad precedent for the Maye deal coming next year?

Whatever is left on this years cap carried over so there wouldn’t be a benefit. We have 19 mill cap space.

 

[KCSVEN]

So Kraft in defense mode about not spending says he would spend whatever he was asked to is your evidence?
The greatest football coach in NFL history said “no, keep your money I don’t want better players”. Laughable.

They were 14th in cash spending in 2024 and left the 3rd most cap money on the table.
They were 9th last year and left THE MOST cap money on the table.
This year they are 26th in cash spending and haven’t 8th most cap money left on the table as of now, and the coach says they aren’t a deep team. Hmmm maybe if the spent more than 26th most….


Cash spending is volatile. It is a function of your cap status. It has to be looked at over time. Over time the patriots are bottom 5 on spending and have been since Kraft arrived.
At least when bb was here he convinced Kraft to spend to the cap.

Since he left we’ve left 36 mill, 48 mill and so far 19 mill of cap space unused.

There is no twisting of numbers or whining that erases this away. It is a fact that Kraft spends less cash that almost any other owner. It’s a fact that he’s stopped even using all of the cap now too.

Whatever reasoning you want to pit behind those facts they are still facts. Your affection for Kraft doesn’t change that.

You make no sense. BB was frugal. He had an idea of penny pinching to maximize the roster and to compete over along period of time. It worked. It's not about wanting better players. It's about wanting the right players at the right price.

The Patriots in 2026 rank #1 overall in total cap spending at $333.9 million.
The previous years lower cap is a product of crappy players and free agent signings front loaded, like Milt Williams.

Combining 2024+2025+2026 cash spending the Patriots rank 15th overall

See, facts not opinion.

 

[KCSVEN]

I think if they can't come to an agreement this year Gonzo is getting Traded next year. We won't get what the Jets got for Sauce.

You think people now look at Sauce trade as a bad one? If Gonzo plays without a contract and plays elite, and Sauce has a good year? Since Gonzo is better than Sauce it's not impossible to think someone pays the same price, no?

 

[JoeSixPat]

Kraft has said he has a cash budget.
There is not a “wide variety of sources” that said he would get whatever he asked for, the only one who ever says that was Kraft when he was in defense mode over being the among lowest cash spenders in the league.

So your argument is that BB preferred to have less money to sign players with? You can have a string “middle class” without being cheap. No one is saying be top heavy, but having a bottom 5 cash budget is 100% a constraint.

Once again, when you are at the bottom of cash spending you have seasons where you have to spend because you have a ton of cap room. BB explained that when we spent in 2021 but over 21-23 we were 27th in cash spending.
Why would BB say that if he had an unlimited check book?

By the way you are wrong, the patriots are 26th in cash spending this year.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cash

They were number 9 last year

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cash/_/year/2025/sort/cash_total

They left 36 mill cap money on the table in 2024 (3rd most)
They left 48 mill cap money on the table in 2025 (most in the league)
They have left 19 mill on the table so far this year. (8th most in the league)

At least when BB was here he got him to spend to the cap, now we don’t even do that.

Yes but I believe teams can carry unused cap money forward - so in a season like 2024 where you know you are not competitive (and 2025 when you are coming off a 4 win season and may be having a tough time recruiting veterans worth the money) it's actually a good strategy NOT to spend up to the cap given that bad teams often have to overpay to get players.

In 2019 they had only about $5 million in cap space available with Brady effectively getting underpaid at $23 million - which didn't even put him in the Top 10 QBs that season when Russel Wilson and Big Ben were getting $35 million.

So assuming the Pats were going to extend Brady at close to $40 mil a year, Brady knew that BB's cap managemet didn't leave space for him to have a competitive team and he looked elsewhere (the writing was on the wall about cap management even before that season.)

So it's not just about spending up to the cap - it's how you do that and field a competitive team and it's pretty clear that the players we had under contract then weren't good enough to get the job done with a QB like Cam Newton for a $1.3 million cap hit (who eventually earned $4 mil with incentives.)

The Pats had another $24 million available in cap space in 2020 - once again, probably wise not to spend up to the cap in a rebuilding season.

 

[Uptown]

FINALLY!!!!!!!!

 

[PatsFan2]

You think people now look at Sauce trade as a bad one? If Gonzo plays without a contract and plays elite, and Sauce has a good year? Since Gonzo is better than Sauce it's not impossible to think someone pays the same price, no?

Two different situations Sauce was on a bad Team Jets Organization: also Sauce wasn't disgruntled. The flip side Gonzo coming from historic franchise: who couldn't come to terms with him. History shows you don't get a lot for players who wants out.

 

[PatsFan2]

FINALLY!!!!!!!!

So if they don't get it done before the opener what then??

 

[Huckleberry1]

FINALLY!!!!!!!!

Finally what?

 

[Vindicate]

First, it’s not what Gonzo wants, it’s what his agent has convinced him he wants.

And that’s basically to feel he won the negotiation.

At the levels they’re at it’s not a dollar here or there, it’s not a payment schedule or a contract clause.

It’s a **** measuring contest.

And every millimeter, every micron, counts.

Well, Gonzo seems to be pretty frustrated about the situation when asked about it, so I think it's also what he wants.

So, the "Pats are so cheap wahhhh" argument annoyed me and I countered with the assertion that we spend to the cap every year.

Somebody countered with this rubbish argument going around that somehow we've spent the least of any team since 2016. I actually can't understand this as anything other than a propaganda piece. I do know there's a reddit post/thread dedicated to this proposition.

I went to SportTrac. Assuming their numbers are good, a few things stand out:
1. In an era where caps were always >$150M, we usually were within a few M of the max.
2. You can be toward the top of the "most cap room" list by rank, and still be within a few million of the cap. A few teams are insanely under the cap.
3. My biggest mea culpa, we were among those teams last year, the year before, and in 2020. Without explaining away specific cases, facts is facts. I've bolded the 4 years that we had double-digit millions of dollars under the cap.
4. It is not the case that, as the Kraft-haters say, we're the cheapest team in the league, we're perenniel cheapskates, etc.

Here are the raw numbers, cap space each year:

From SportTrac:

2016 NFL Team Salary Cap Tracker

2016. The amount of cap space for ranged from Cleveland at $46m to the NYJ at -.555M (554,565 over the cap). New England finished the year with $12M in cap space, 9th-least spendy. The avg. was about 11M. So by spending $13M NE could have spent the most. To spend the least, NE would have to spend $34M less.

2017. CLE, $60M in cap space to MIA, 38K in cap space. NE at $4M space, no. 23 of 32 in spendiness. Note, however, that to get to spendiest they needed only spend $4M more; to get to cheapest, they needed to spend $56M less. Get it? If the list being peddled around reddit etc. has any relation to reality, the difference between median and mean is doing a lot of work.

2018. CLE, $54M in cap space to MN, -$6M cap space ($6M over the cap.) NE $4M in space (24th, where 32nd is most spendy)

2019. IND, $42M in cap space to BAL, -$2M. NE $5M in cap space. 24 w 32 = spendiest.

2020. CLE, $30M in cap space to Sea, -1M. NE $24M in cap space, the 4th-most w/no 32 = spendiest

2021. JAX, $28M in cap space to Buffalo, -2M. NE $5M in cap space, 11th most

2022. CLE, $31M in cap space to NO, -828K. NE $2M in cap space. No. 23, with 32 = spendiest

2023. SF, $38M in cap space to BUF, 798K over the cap. NE at $529k space, no. 31 of 32 (highest in league without going over)

2024. SF $50M in cap space to BUF, 552K in cap space. NE at $36M, 3rd most.

2025. NE $48M in cap space (!) to IND, -563K in cap space.

At this writing it says we have $19M in 2026 space

Nobody is talking about cap space. It's cash spending.

 

[Hyped]

Uh, no. Landry is middle class. That's a middle class contract these days. Top guys are getting $45m a year at this point at Landry's position.

Landry is making $14m per year. That's the equivalent of $7m 10 yrs ago. Landry is middle class.

When we say the Patriots have a talent deficiency, it's at the top of the roster. No All-Pros other than Maye and Gonzalez.

Denver has 6 All-Pros.

Not having top end talent doesn't mean we have middle class depth.

 

[Ring 6]

You make no sense. BB was frugal. He had an idea of penny pinching to maximize the roster and to compete over along period of time. It worked. It's not about wanting better players. It's about wanting the right players at the right price.

The Patriots in 2026 rank #1 overall in total cap spending at $333.9 million.
The previous years lower cap is a product of crappy players and free agent signings front loaded, like Milt Williams.

Combining 2024+2025+2026 cash spending the Patriots rank 15th overall

See, facts not opinion.

He spent the budget he was given. If he had a larger budget he would have spent it to get better players.

Hoe about facts that matter? They are #1 in cap spending because they have the highest cap numbers because they spent the least in the past and carried the most forward. They are 26th in cash spending.

Where are you getting 15th over 24-26 from? Please tell me you aren’t adding the rankings together and dividing by 3.

 

[TheRainMaker]

This is great news if Gonzo doesn’t plan to hold out. Another year playing on a cheap contract.

Pats will unload a ton of cap space in 2027 to sign the new deal.

 

[Ring 6]

Yes but I believe teams can carry unused cap money forward - so in a season like 2024 where you know you are not competitive (and 2025 when you are coming off a 4 win season and may be having a tough time recruiting veterans worth the money) it's actually a good strategy NOT to spend up to the cap given that bad teams often have to overpay to get players.

In 2019 they had only about $5 million in cap space available with Brady effectively getting underpaid at $23 million - which didn't even put him in the Top 10 QBs that season when Russel Wilson and Big Ben were getting $35 million.

So assuming the Pats were going to extend Brady at close to $40 mil a year, Brady knew that BB's cap managemet didn't leave space for him to have a competitive team and he looked elsewhere (the writing was on the wall about cap management even before that season.)

So it's not just about spending up to the cap - it's how you do that and field a competitive team and it's pretty clear that the players we had under contract then weren't good enough to get the job done with a QB like Cam Newton for a $1.3 million cap hit (who eventually earned $4 mil with incentives.)

The Pats had another $24 million available in cap space in 2020 - once again, probably wise not to spend up to the cap in a rebuilding season.

Over time they are in the bottom few in the league in cash spending. The counter argument “yeah but they spend the cap” was made and I posted that’s not true.
If you are telling Kraft gives up on seasons when he thinks they won’t compete, that’s a new data point.

 

[upstater1]

Not having top end talent doesn't mean we have middle class depth.

I think you missed my point. We're spending a ton of money on our middle class--and getting very little to show for it. And meanwhile we're about to let trade our All-Pro

 

[upstater1]

This is great news if Gonzo doesn’t plan to hold out. Another year playing on a cheap contract.

Pats will unload a ton of cap space in 2027 to sign the new deal.

This doesn't make any sense at all. They'll end up jamming their salary cap even more if they sign him next year, because not only will they lose the luxury of this year's salary cap, but because he'll ask for an even greater amount, especially with the predicted 8% rise in the cap. If he has a good year next year, he won't settle for anything less than $36m and he'll bargain hard for $38m.

They won't sign him to that, especially while signing Maye.

 

[upstater1]

You think people now look at Sauce trade as a bad one? If Gonzo plays without a contract and plays elite, and Sauce has a good year? Since Gonzo is better than Sauce it's not impossible to think someone pays the same price, no?

Sauce signed a contract. That's a big difference. The team trading for him knew what his contract will be.

Next year Gonzalez is going to ask for $38m and $100m+ guaranteed. So any team trading for him will take that into account in addition to draft picks.

This is why I say that if you don't plan to sign him, now is the time to trade him, because his value decreases next year and the team will have less leverage, even if they can keep him with an option/franchise tag another 2 years. If they go that route, it will be a huge distraction since he will obviously hold out, you're not going to get the same player, and at the end of the franchise tag, his value is a 3rd round compensatory pick at best (if you havent signed any other FAs).

 

[TheRainMaker]

This doesn't make any sense at all. They'll end up jamming their salary cap even more if they sign him next year, because not only will they lose the luxury of this year's salary cap, but because he'll ask for an even greater amount, especially with the predicted 8% rise in the cap. If he has a good year next year, he won't settle for anything less than $36m and he'll bargain hard for $38m.

They won't sign him to that, especially while signing Maye.

The Pats may have no intention of signing him after trading a 1st round pick for AJ Brown. It's expected that his deal gets redone and will command $35M per year unless he falls off a cliff.

They also hardly have any big contracts on the books and are going to unload a ton of dead weight after this season. If the Pats were worried about it, they would've had more urgency to get this done.

Depending on whether this season turns into 2002 where they can't stop the run, I could see a major twist where the Pats get rid of both Barmore and Williams. There is way too much money tied up between these guys which such putrid production. Both have no guaranteed money going into 2027. Barmore at minimum will be shown the door.

 

[gobesmug]

FINALLY!!!!!!!!

Thank you. Before this I was stuck thinking a deal may or may not get done. Now I know a deal may or may not get done.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Well, Gonzo seems to be pretty frustrated about the situation when asked about it, so I think it's also what he wants.


Nobody is talking about cap space. It's cash spending.

When you spend cash to pay a player under contract that is reflected in the cap.

When you spend cash on a player without it being reflected in a contract, you are breaking the CBA, and maybe there’s a fraud case or something to boot.

Moving cap money from year to year, even habitually kicking the can, can only go so far. Over 10 years it would even out.

One mechanism I can think of would result in a team having <5m cap room most seasons, yet having among the lowest cash spent.

That is that most teams give players money then don’t require them to work for it, AKA, having big dead money hits. You pay them up front then cut them, because what? That way people don’t call you cheap?

Give me the mechanism by which other teams are outspending the Pats, since we’re “dead last.”

I have a suspicion that this whole talking point is just valorizing stupid/undisciplined cap management.

If the diff bw actual cash spent and cash spent under the cap, for 10 years, is anything other than dead money, what other mechanism are you claiming is the culprit?

I think we’re moving money forward the last couple years, but that’s an effect that, for most years, should come out within the 10 yr frame.

Sidebar: I also notice that the BB years are mainly much less “tightwad” than the last 2 under Vrable. BB haters, realize that the bigger “cheapness” was under mayo/vrabel.