Curious to hear everyone's thoughts on Welker

[RobertWeathers]

I'm really wondering how serious the Patriots are about signing WW to anything more than a 2 year deal. Wes' biggest problem is that he'll be 31 at the start of camp.

Tying up $9m on WW does hurt this team's ability to add/fortify the roster in other areas (defense).

The team has AH and Gronk as it's possession/move the chain receivers and needs to upgrade both WR spots.

It would not shock me if he leaves the team via FA and the Pats get a 3rd rounder in compensation.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I'm really wondering how serious the Patriots are about signing WW to anything more than a 2 year deal. Wes' biggest problem is that he'll be 31 at the start of camp.

Tying up $9m on WW does hurt this team's ability to add/fortify the roster in other areas (defense).

The team has AH and Gronk as it's possession/move the chain receivers and needs to upgrade both WR spots.

It would not shock me if he leaves the team via FA and the Pats get a 3rd rounder in compensation.

Is 31 suddenly becoming the new 33? Welker hasn't lost a step. In fact he rebounded from that ACL better than anyone I can remember. Troy Brown was never the same player after his knee injury. Wes has actually become a better player. They gave Stinko a 3 year $12M+ incentives deal at age 33... They gave Moss a 3/$27M deal 4 years ago at 31... If he leaves the team via FA and the Pats get a 3rd rounder in compensation it would cement Bill's achilles heel being as an evaluator of WR value within his own system with a HOF QB to run it. Even moreso than letting Gaffney walk over 4/$10 - which put him in position to be needing just that guy for the next 4 years.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

I find it hard to believe that both sides won't get something done here. No way they let Welker walk, when is the deadline for frinchise tags? I think its Monday. Look for a Welker deal or the tag to be placed before that. The good thing about this is the almost universal silence from both sides. That usually means that they are negotiating and that they are close to a deal. Usually when you hear alot of noise, one side or the other, is trying to make thier case.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Is 31 suddenly becoming the new 33? Welker hasn't lost a step. In fact he rebounded from that ACL better than anyone I can remember. Troy Brown was never the same player after his knee injury. Wes has actually become a better player. They gave Stinko a 3 year $12M+ incentives deal at age 33... They gave Moss a 3/$27M deal 4 years ago at 31... If he leaves the team via FA and the Pats get a 3rd rounder in compensation it would cement Bill's achilles heel being as an evaluator of WR value within his own system with a HOF QB to run it. Even moreso than letting Gaffney walk over 4/$10 - which put him in position to be needing just that guy for the next 4 years.

I wholeheartedly agree that it is very likely that WW will have a great year next year and most likely a great year the year after. He has not lost a step at all and yes, it seems that he is a better player now than he was before his injury. But I do believe that there is something about being a 33 or 34 year old WR and starting to slow down and injuries starting to catch up with them. I'll use Marvin Harrison as an example. Moss too.

Supposedly, the Pats will have around $20m to spend on players. Tying up $9m on WW and another $5m for rookies leaves them $6m. With that they need to (possibly) figure out how to keep Carter, Anderson AND upgrade the secondary, OLB, d-line and find a field-stretcher at WR.

Pats’ 2012 cap, free agents and potential extra cap space :All Things Pats

I'm just wondering that, based on this team's financial model and their needs, if the tag makes sense at all never mind WW's salary demands and being 31 in May.

Remember that they let Randy test the market too. The situations are eerily similar.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I wholeheartedly agree that it is very likely that WW will have a great year next year and most likely a great year the year after. He has not lost a step at all and yes, it seems that he is a better player now than he was before his injury. But I do believe that there is something about being a 33 or 34 year old WR and starting to slow down and injuries starting to catch up with them. I'll use Marvin Harrison as an example. Moss too.

Supposedly, the Pats will have around $20m to spend on players. Tying up $9m on WW and another $5m for rookies leaves them $6m. With that they need to (possibly) figure out how to keep Carter, Anderson AND upgrade the secondary, OLB, d-line and find a field-stretcher at WR.

Pats’ 2012 cap, free agents and potential extra cap space :All Things Pats

I'm just wondering that, based on this team's financial model and their needs, if the tag makes sense at all never mind WW's salary demands and being 31 in May.

Remember that they let Randy test the market too. The situations are eerily similar.

Not similar at all. They had the offer on the table for Moss and he wasn't going to get much more than that even if he played footsies with the Eagles. They let Moss test the market because they needed to test his true desire to remain here rather than chase the top dollar. They didn't want to force anything on THAT guy because they knew (unlike Welker) he wasn't inclined to disprove his naysayers so much as quit on his captors... I always thought a better test for THAT guy would have been an undermarket deal...

It's going to be harder to get better if we start out by getting worse. By year 3 of a Welker deal the top tier WR's will be averaging low double digits. And the cap will be up possibly well north of $135M. The top 10 have averaged $8.4M over the last 5 years. If Welker gives us 75% production by 2014 it's a great deal because he's still a bargain. If he's really dropping off by 2015 he either does a Ocho Stinko restructure for the last year or he's gone with minimal dead cap.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Not similar at all. They had the offer on the table for Moss and he wasn't going to get much more than that even if he played footsies with the Eagles. They let Moss test the market because they needed to test his true desire to remain here rather than chase the top dollar. They didn't want to force anything on THAT guy because they knew (unlike Welker) he wasn't inclined to disprove his naysayers so much as quit on his captors... I always thought a better test for THAT guy would have been an undermarket deal...

It was reported that the Pats had a 2yr-$16m deal all guaranteed on the table and WW turned it down. I'm pretty sure they make a similar offer to Moss. To your point, they didn't attempt to strong-arm him but gave him the chance to test the market and find out what happiness meant to him and he came back to the team and produced. WW wants more than what the Pats are willing to offer. Could be just years. Could be just dollars. I think that their intent is to keep WW and treat him fairly but they are not going to extend themselves just for him when there are major needs on the defensive side of the football AND the fact that he'll be 33 in two years. Based on their contract offer, it's pretty clear that is what they are thinking.

It's going to be harder to get better if we start out by getting worse.

They will only get worse without WW if they do not reallocate $9m to the defense.

I look at it this way. If they score 26ppg instead of 30ppg and allow 16ppg and not 21ppg and win a SB by stopping teams in the 4th qtr they will have improved.

By year 3 of a Welker deal the top tier WR's will be averaging low double digits. And the cap will be up possibly well north of $135M. The top 10 have averaged $8.4M over the last 5 years. If Welker gives us 75% production by 2014 it's a great deal because he's still a bargain. If he's really dropping off by 2015 he either does a Ocho Stinko restructure for the last year or he's gone with minimal dead cap.

I would agree that 2012 and 2013 will still be top-end years for WW but unlikely beyond that. He'll be a 2011 Deion Branch-type of WR.

I'm not arguing that WW isn't worth the cash in 2012 and 2013. I'm arguing that I don't see how they keep him if they want to add 2-3 impact players on defense for the 2012 season.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

They couldn't stop teams in the 4th quarter of the super bowls they won...with top 5 defenses, at least until McPuke cooperated with his can't hurry up and we all know I'm going to throw a pick performance. Fortunately they always had an offense that could move the chains and make a play in the crunch and get in FG range...

 

[ctpatsfan77]

It was reported that the Pats had a 2yr-$16m deal all guaranteed on the table and WW turned it down. . . . WW wants more than what the Pats are willing to offer. Could be just years. Could be just dollars.

The problem is that we don't know what the Pats' limit is, nor do we really know what Welker's looking for.

In any case, negotiation is about meeting in the middle. I don't think that 2/$16M was their final offer; I do think they won't fully guarantee a longer deal, though.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

It would not shock me if he leaves the team via FA and the Pats get a 3rd rounder in compensation.

It would shock me, because I would think they could get better than that from a team *this* year.

 

[Deus Irae]

I'm really wondering how serious the Patriots are about signing WW to anything more than a 2 year deal. Wes' biggest problem is that he'll be 31 at the start of camp.

Tying up $9m on WW does hurt this team's ability to add/fortify the roster in other areas (defense).

The team has AH and Gronk as it's possession/move the chain receivers and needs to upgrade both WR spots.

It would not shock me if he leaves the team via FA and the Pats get a 3rd rounder in compensation.

It would shock the hell out of me.

 

[RobertWeathers]

It would shock the hell out of me.

As it relates to BB's personnel decisions, other than trading Brady nothing would shock me.

 

[Christopher Patriot]

I'm going to get bricks thrown at me in this forum but i've said since day one my thought process is they do not sign Welker to a long term deal if he wants
top 5 wr money, he's 31 and while he makes a ton of receptions, and has ton of heart and came from a knee injury stronger and better than you or I ever could.
Wes Welker 5 years ago signs a cap friendly deal even with the production he had the last few years.
The new Hollywood Welker and here comes the hate you know new beautiful wife wants to live some place warm, as a free agent I see Arizona or even Tampa bay for a spot for him, don't discount Washington in the running.
I hope if they cant make a deal the Patriots do whats better for the team by franchising and trading him outside of the division for good compensation.
We all know BB and Adams will look to part with a player 2 years early vs keep them 2 years to late.
That's why I always say other then number 12 the name on the Patriots jerseys should be in velcro that way we can be ready for the inevitable.

 

[Ring 6]

I'm going to get bricks thrown at me in this forum but i've said since day one my thought process is they do not sign Welker to a long term deal if he wants
top 5 wr money, he's 31 and while he makes a ton of receptions, and has ton of heart and came from a knee injury stronger and better than you or I ever could.
Wes Welker 5 years ago signs a cap friendly deal even with the production he had the last few years.
The new Hollywood Welker and here comes the hate you know new beautiful wife wants to live some place warm, as a free agent I see Arizona or even Tampa bay for a spot for him, don't discount Washington in the running.
I hope if they cant make a deal the Patriots do whats better for the team by franchising and trading him outside of the division for good compensation.
We all know BB and Adams will look to part with a player 2 years early vs keep them 2 years to late.
That's why I always say other then number 12 the name on the Patriots jerseys should be in velcro that way we can be ready for the inevitable.

Well, I disagree, but I am curious about one part of your theory.

You have concluded that if Welker wants top 5 WR money we should tag and trade because he isn't worth it. Then you say trade him OUTSIDE THE DIVISION. If it is a bad move for us to sign him long term, wouldn't it make sense to trade him WITHIN THE DIVISION so the team that signs him to the bad contract is one in our division, thereby hurting a rival?

 

[Snake Eyes]

Well, I disagree, but I am curious about one part of your theory.

You have concluded that if Welker wants top 5 WR money we should tag and trade because he isn't worth it. Then you say trade him OUTSIDE THE DIVISION. If it is a bad move for us to sign him long term, wouldn't it make sense to trade him WITHIN THE DIVISION so the team that signs him to the bad contract is one in our division, thereby hurting a rival?

Welker also knows our team, inside and out, do you want all that intel going to the Jets? OTOH, if you trade him to Seattle or the Redskins, they have to deal with the cap issues and you don't hurt yourself in the process.

 

[Christopher Patriot]

Andy I understand where your going with that, my thought process is he's a great player for 2 more years but going into year 3 declines and players that rely on quickness not top end speed not great body control not overpowering defenders, you could have as much heart as anyone and if you rely on your initial quickness to get separation it'll fade fast.

One thing i've always admired about BB is making a tough business decision and not making it a personal emotional one.

He will get rid of a player 2 years faster, than 2 years too late, for instance, Willie, Mike, Wes, Jabar, Ty, Randy, Bruce Armstrong, Chris Slade, Ben Coates.

Almost all these players had arguably 2 solid years left, and he parted ways and rebuilt without these guys, now going by that logic if we can resign Welker to a contract that doesn't have any or little guaranteed money into year 3 and doesn't hurt the teams chance to upgrade other areas over the next 2 years that contract would make sense.

On the other hand if he wants to get paid and wants security for his wife and possible family for years past his playing time and wants Tom and Giselle type lifestyle he's not getting it in New England where is a team like Seattle or Washington would break the bank for him where is we wouldn't.

Plus the free agent market is flooded as well is the draft with plug and play receivers so I think the Patriots are value shopping, ala LLoyd, or if they do break the bank its for a dynamic player like Wallace or a Jackson who has 3 to 4 years of dominant play vs 2.

Unfortunately for nostalgic fans BB doesn't look as past performance for rewards he looks at in his words this week.

In alot of ways I believe a players past contributions is not looked at as what they wanna give the player but what can that player contribute in the hear and now.

It's a tough business but that's also how the Patriots have stayed so competitive in the salary cap era, and why I say have your Patriots jersey with velcro lettering on the name on the jersey because things change, especially with the Belichick led Patriots.

If they resign Wes Welker to a huge non cap friendly deal than I will completely eat crow and the philosophy has changed out of desperation in my humble opinion. Either way 14 and 2 or 2 and 14 I'm still a fan here in Lancaster PA.

 

[jmt57]

It's all part of negotiations, let's not assume Pats won't budge off two years, or Welker off four years.

Another possibility is for Pats to go ahead and give Welker a three or four year deal, and if his production should happen to slide they cut him prior to the end of the contract. This is football, not baseball; contracts are not guaranteed and in the NFL players get cut before their contract is over all the time. If the team was unfortunately forced to do that in this scenario they'd be in better shape to absorb cap hit in 2014 or beyond based on cap's expected large growth at that point in time.

 

[bagwell368]

I believe Welker wants more then 3 years and more then $7.5M per (in fact 5 years for $45M with $17.5M - too much for a small WR of his age with his injury history. He's not worth the one year price either - it will badly crimp our FA activities.

We lock him up and then deal him - for a 2nd and a 5th.

Sign Lloyd and two other pretty solid FA's, and then the draft.

Note the 2nd and 5th may be for 2013 draft as this may run into the summer/early next season before it's done - see Branch's issues before the Seattle trade.

 

[Deus Irae]

The team announced within the past half hour that the Seahawks and Lynch have agreed to terms. Per a source with knowledge of the situation, it’s a four-year, $31 million contract with $18 million guaranteed.

Seahawks, Lynch strike four-year, $31 million deal | ProFootballTalk

Marshawn Lynch just signed for that. Anyone still want to pretend that 4 years non-guaranteed at $5 million plus incentives is going to be good enough for a top level receiver like Welker?

 

[Christopher Patriot]

I smell a sign and trade.

 

[Snake Eyes]

Seahawks, Lynch strike four-year, $31 million deal | ProFootballTalk

Marshawn Lynch just signed for that. Anyone still want to pretend that 4 years non-guaranteed at $5 million plus incentives is going to be good enough for a top level receiver like Welker?

As much as I love Welker he is not a top level receiver: Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson are the only ones in that category IMO.