Andy I understand where your going with that, my thought process is he's a great player for 2 more years but going into year 3 declines and players that rely on quickness not top end speed not great body control not overpowering defenders, you could have as much heart as anyone and if you rely on your initial quickness to get separation it'll fade fast.
Players who rely on top end speed go first. And great body control and generally surehandedness and instincts are among Welker's repetoir, and those go last.
One thing i've always admired about BB is making a tough business decision and not making it a personal emotional one.
He will get rid of a player 2 years faster, than 2 years too late, for instance, Willie, Mike, Wes, Jabar, Ty, Randy, Bruce Armstrong, Chris Slade, Ben Coates.
Almost all these players had arguably 2 solid years left, and he parted ways and rebuilt without these guys, now going by that logic if we can resign Welker to a contract that doesn't have any or little guaranteed money into year 3 and doesn't hurt the teams chance to upgrade other areas over the next 2 years that contract would make sense.
Willie didn't have one more year left. Ask RAC... Vrabel didn't have any solid years left, he started for KC because they had no options and needed him as RAC did Willie to sell the system - so they overpaid, and KC just for a year. Second year he got short money. Letting JAB go for 4/$10M was a mistake. Been looking for that guy ever since. Ty was in a wheelchair when he asked to be released. They wanted him on a restructure that would have guaranteed him the remaining money on his contract but added 2 more years at the same rate unguaranteed for cap purposes. He never quite made the difference back on all his stops thereafter. Randy was moved on from for other reasons.
On the other hand if he wants to get paid and wants security for his wife and possible family for years past his playing time and wants Tom and Giselle type lifestyle he's not getting it in New England where is a team like Seattle or Washington would break the bank for him where is we wouldn't.
Plus the free agent market is flooded as well is the draft with plug and play receivers so I think the Patriots are value shopping, ala LLoyd, or if they do break the bank its for a dynamic player like Wallace or a Jackson who has 3 to 4 years of dominant play vs 2.
Unfortunately for nostalgic fans BB doesn't look as past performance for rewards he looks at in his words this week.
In alot of ways I believe a players past contributions is not looked at as what they wanna give the player but what can that player contribute in the hear and now.
Welker isn't asking for $18M per and they all want security for the remainder of their lives because of the price they pay in playing the game you watch from your couch for a decade or more. Unlike many fans, Belichick actually gets that and doesn't begrudge them. The FA market and the draft are flooded with WR most of whom based on a decade of experience can not be plugged into and play in this system. Lloyd represents value only if he wants a reasonable deal since he too is 31 and a lot less productive than Welker in his best 2 seasons in a less demanding version of this system. Wallace may well be a one trick pony as his HC opined and his production fell off a cliff in the second half of just his third season. Jackson is a potential season long suspension waiting to happen and he likely wants a lot more than Wes.
It's a tough business but that's also how the Patriots have stayed so competitive in the salary cap era, and why I say have your Patriots jersey with velcro lettering on the name on the jersey because things change, especially with the Belichick led Patriots.
If they resign Wes Welker to a huge non cap friendly deal than I will completely eat crow and the philosophy has changed out of desperation in my humble opinion. Either way 14 and 2 or 2 and 14 I'm still a fan here in Lancaster PA.
