Curious to hear everyone's thoughts on Welker

[Ian]

I've had a lot of conversations with various people about him and am surprised how mixed the opinions are. I'm even more shocked with the opinions of letting Welker walk and not reaching a deal is O.K. with some people, and how they don't even want to tag him. It's strange.

I find it interesting that Gronk and Hernandez's performances seem to have clouded the fact that if Welker's gone, their depth chart consists of Underwood, Edelman, Branch, Slater, and Ochocinco. They lose either one (and especially as we learned, Gronk) and the offense instantly becomes less effective if Welker's not here.

I understand the arguments after Moss left because it allowed them to stop heaving the ball down the field in hopes that he'd come down with it and getting back to distributing the ball better. However, Welker is more dynamic (or versatile - if you'd prefer that word) than Moss and he showed even more of that this season. Considering how thin they are at wideout, I'm just surprised there's so many people who are ready to let him walk. I love the thought of Wallace coming here as much as the next guy, but they need someone like him (or more realistically LLoyd or Wayne) to compliment Welker in this offense. I think losing Welker leaves them with a big void because they really need at least two decent receivers, which they just don't have right now. Branch is a #3 or #4 at best at this stage of his career, which as I've mentioned before is O.K. because that's what he should be. He's Troy Brown at this point, although he can't play defense

But I'm just trying to understand the thoughts of some of the people who are cool with letting Welker walk and would love to know who would like to see them keep him (whether it's franchising him, or an extension) vs people that want to see them move in another direction and why they feel that way.

 

[supafly]

Keeping Welker is an absolute must, Ian.

He is the defintion of a "Patriots type player," has earned his upcoming contract, and (most importantly) is Tom Brady's go-to-guy in about every important situation. (Yes, the irony of that just hit me as I was typing, but it's time to move on..)

Welker is still producing at a very high level, knows the nuances of the offense, and has a great rapport/chemistry with Tom Brady. That alone is an absolute huge factor towards keeping him, as Tom needs that stable chemistry in a fast-paced timing attack.

I wouldn't want Welker going anywhere, and I have no idea why people are questioning his ability to 'hold up.' I see no reason to believe that he cannot be the exact same player for at least 2 more yrs.

 

[supafly]

I think the obvious 'need' for a stretch the field kind of WR is possibly clouding some people's judgement, as they long for those big named WR's that are available on the free agent market.

Some seem to advocate allowing Wes to walk, so that we can try to replace most of his production with Edelman; then using all of the saved money to go out and get that 'big-named' WR that is so desperately needed for multiple reasons.

I disagree. I think that we need to first keep Welker, and next try to improve the role of Branch with a guy who is reasonable in cost (like a Wayne etc). They could then try to keep Branch somewhere near the vet minimum with an incentive laden contract where he takes over Ochocinco's spot.

Bottom line--we need to keep Welker first, then improve the WR2 position, and that will also lead to improving the overall depth of the WR core. We all saw how close this team was, and there is no reason to believe that they shouldn't keep moving in the right direction.

 

[Ian]

Keeping Welker is an absolute must, Ian.

He is the defintion of a "Patriots type player," has earned his upcoming contract, and (most importantly) is Tom Brady's go-to-guy in about every important situation. (Yes, the irony of that just hit me as I was typing, but it's time to move on..)

Welker is still producing at a very high level, knows the nuances of the offense, and has a great rapport/chemistry with Tom Brady. That alone is an absolute huge factor towards keeping him, as Tom needs that stable chemistry in a fast-paced timing attack.

I wouldn't want Welker going anywhere, and I have no idea why people are questioning his ability to 'hold up.' I see no reason to believe that he cannot be the exact same player for at least 2 more yrs.

That's kind of where I'm at, and I'll take it a step further.

Should he get his 4-year deal (which it's obviously pretty clear that's what he seems to want), I think you basically have to look at it this way: He'll likely give you at least two seasons with top tier production, and then in years 3-4 probably second or third tier by our standards as he starts to wear down, which is probably still better than 75% of every one else's #1 and #2 receivers (let's be honest there are only a handful of "elite" guys in this league). The point is you keep him with Gronkowski and at least one or two decent guys around him, and they still have a potent offense. Barring an injury, he's also still a guy who can win one-on-one match-ups later in his career while being more productive than some of the older guys in the league.

Needless to say I'm in the "figure it out and pay him" group, because franchising him at his age is going to make the negotiations contentious if no deal is reached before next season. I just don't want to see them put everything on Gronk and Hernandez with a bunch of "JAGS" for receivers. We saw that mess and how it worked out in '06 - I don't want to see it again. We've got Brady in the final few seasons of his career, I think they need to make sure they're in decent shape because injuries happen, and their depth right now is just terrible. Losing Welker only makes it worse IMO.

 

[ausbacker]

I cannot think of one rational reason to not lock up Wes Welker.

 

[Jackson 2]

I've had a lot of conversations with various people about him and am surprised how mixed the opinions are. I'm even more shocked with the opinions of letting Welker walk and not reaching a deal is O.K. with some people, and how they don't even want to tag him. It's strange.

I find it interesting that Gronk and Hernandez's performances seem to have clouded the fact that if Welker's gone, their depth chart consists of Underwood, Edelman, Branch, Slater, and Ochocinco. They lose either one (and especially as we learned, Gronk) and the offense instantly becomes less effective if Welker's not here.

I understand the arguments after Moss left because it allowed them to stop heaving the ball down the field in hopes that he'd come down with it and getting back to distributing the ball better. However, Welker is more dynamic (or versatile - if you'd prefer that word) than Moss and he showed even more of that this season. Considering how thin they are at wideout, I'm just surprised there's so many people who are ready to let him walk. I love the thought of Wallace coming here as much as the next guy, but they need someone like him (or more realistically LLoyd or Wayne) to compliment Welker in this offense. I think losing Welker leaves them with a big void because they really need at least two decent receivers, which they just don't have right now. Branch is a #3 or #4 at best at this stage of his career, which as I've mentioned before is O.K. because that's what he should be. He's Troy Brown at this point, although he can't play defense

But I'm just trying to understand the thoughts of some of the people who are cool with letting Welker walk and would love to know who would like to see them keep him (whether it's franchising him, or an extension) vs people that want to see them move in another direction and why they feel that way.

In my opinion, it has an awful lot to do with the last image people have of Wes - namely, failing to come up with the biggest catch of his career. Personally, I think that view is asinine and short-sighted. Welker is an outstanding player who's in tremendous shape, is incredibly productive and a great teammate. Those who look at him in a cavalier, take him or leave him manner are incredibly mistaken. Once again, just my opinion.

 

[Mark12]

I REALLY REALLY want Welker to stay. However, I do not want to assign the franchise tag on him because it would be a huge hit on the cap. The perfect scenario would be a 3 year for 18-22 million$ contract. I think it's fair and it would allow the Patriots to fill other holes. Release Ocho and get Mike Wallace or Brando Lloyd and strengthen the D on the draft.

 

[Ian]

In my opinion, it has an awful lot to do with the last image people have of Wes - namely, failing to come up with the biggest catch of his career. Personally, I think that view is asinine and short-sighted. Welker is an outstanding player who's in tremendous shape, is incredibly productive and a great teammate. Those who look at him in a cavalier, take him or leave him manner are incredibly mistaken. Once again, just my opinion.

The real problem down the stretch in that game was the fact they didn't have a 2nd or 3rd guy who fit the role of what David Givens or a Jabar Gaffney gave them. My personal opinion is moving Edelman down the depth chart and finally letting Matthew Slater go. I know they love him, but it's time to pick one really good versatile special teams guy - not two - and focus on getting better at 2-4 on the WR depth chart. I've said it before, the Giants won that game because they had two good tight ends but also had three decent receivers.

I mean when they won it all back in '04 the Pats had Brown, Patten, Givens, and a much younger Branch in that game. Pretend for a second that Branch was at Welker's level back then (which could be argued), and Brown, Patten and Givens are still better than Edelman, Slater, and Branch (now). I wouldn't call any of them super stars, but they were just better as a group compared to this current bunch. Granted I know they didn't have Hernandez and Gronk back then, but I don't think it's unreasonable for this team to have a couple of additional guys who can at least get open and catch a pass. Slater didn't catch another regular season pass since the 2nd play from scrimmage this season. Like I said, I love him as a special teams player, but I think it's time to move on from there.

 

[PATSNUTme]

Well he did drop that pass in the SB, you know.

 

[Ian]

Well he did drop that pass in the SB, you know.

LOL - Very true, I read a lot of that after the game and at the time I at least understood the frustration. But now that we're 3+ weeks past it, obviously it's time to focus on the bigger picture so I'm interested to hear from the people who are still ready to cut ties with him.

 

[Joker]

I got more important things to worry about right now than if/when Wes Welker breaks the bank or not...I thought Lawyer Milloy was a bad move...I thought Law was a bad move, I thought Seymour was a bad move...so I decided to stop "thinking" about this stuff...you know why?...five Super Bowl appearances in a decade....I'll wait and see what Bill does and I'll go along with THAT...call me a kool aid swigging homer...I'm fine with that...

 

[nashvillepatsfan]

My personal opinion is moving Edelman down the depth chart and finally letting Matthew Slater go. I know they love him, but it's time to pick one really good versatile special teams guy

Agreed. With the change in the KO rules, I don't think we need his STs speed anymore. Time to upgrade. Whats the point in having a guy who can outrun everyone in a straight line, but cant catch the ball?

As for the Welker question,,,,,,,,I can't imagine why anyone would want him to walk. Like you said, sign him up for 3-4 years. Pay the boy Bill!
The people saying to let him walk are probably the same people who always remember the last bad play, and never focus on what a player did during the whole season,,,,like Matt Light

 

[cmasspatsfan]

Agreed. With the change in the KO rules, I don't think we need his STs speed anymore. Time to upgrade. Whats the point in having a guy who can outrun everyone in a straight line, but cant catch the ball?

As for the Welker question,,,,,,,,I can't imagine why anyone would want him to walk. Like you said, sign him up for 3-4 years. Pay the boy Bill!
The people saying to let him walk are probably the same people who always remember the last bad play, and never focus on what a player did during the whole season,,,,like Matt Light

I think it might be a combination of things with one of them being the big WR free agents market this year. We could have Welker and player A, or player A and player B, whats more cost productive and what kind of production can you expect out of A & B compared to Welker and A. Im hoping they work things out and go with Welker and A.

 

[Sciz]

They absolutely need to tag him. Even if they hypothetically don't want him, he still has more value than the 3rd round comp pick they'd get, and I still say that he's a Jet if the Pats just let him go.

After he gets tagged, I don't think it's as easy as just signing him to a long term contract. He'll want to get paid like the second best statistical receiver in the NFL. The Pats will want to pay him like the receiver that he'll be over the next few seasons. Those two values are probably pretty far apart.

If there's one thing that we know about the Pats, it's that they're going to stick to their guns and wait for Welker to agree to their terms. Whether he does that or not remains to be seen. On a scale from Bruschi to Mankins/Branch, I think this is going to be a lot closer to the Mankins/Branch side of things.

 

[Crazy Patriot Guy]

Sign the beast!

 

[Ian]

They absolutely need to tag him. Even if they hypothetically don't want him, he still has more value than the 3rd round comp pick they'd get, and I still say that he's a Jet if the Pats just let him go.

After he gets tagged, I don't think it's as easy as just signing him to a long term contract. He'll want to get paid like the second best statistical receiver in the NFL. The Pats will want to pay him like the receiver that he'll be over the next few seasons. Those two values are probably pretty far apart.

If there's one thing that we know about the Pats, it's that they're going to stick to their guns and wait for Welker to agree to their terms. Whether he does that or not remains to be seen. On a scale from Bruschi to Mankins/Branch, I think this is going to be a lot closer to the Mankins/Branch side of things.

The interesting thing I think is that the value is different between just one year (being 31 heading into next season compared to being 32 in '13). I don't think he gets a four year deal next year since he would be 36 at the end of it, compared to signing a 4-year deal now which would make him 35 at the end of it. That to a certain extent benefits the Patriots. That's the other part I wonder about in terms of his reaction to being franchised this year compared to signing an actual extension, especially if he's looking for a 4-year deal.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

After he gets tagged, I don't think it's as easy as just signing him to a long term contract. He'll want to get paid like the second best statistical receiver in the NFL. The Pats will want to pay him like the receiver that he'll be over the next few seasons. Those two values are probably pretty far apart.

With all due respect, that's like the argument in that awful NESN article that argued "He'll want $10M/yr, so the Pats should just move on." We don't know what he's looking for, or even if the hang-up (should one exist) is over money or years or both. But we do know he's on record as saying he's already made more money playing football than he'd ever dreamt of making. [No, that's not proof he'll play for peanuts, but it at least suggests that money is not Welker's sole motivator.]

If there's one thing that we know about the Pats, it's that they're going to stick to their guns and wait for Welker to agree to their terms.

Except when they don't; BB (supposedly) decided to give Vinatieri what he wanted, but just a little bit too late.

And I still don't see him going to the JEST; he had three years of playing with QB suckage, and I don't see him wanting to return to that again.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

The interesting thing I think is that the value is different between just one year (being 31 heading into next season compared to being 32 in '13). I don't think he gets a four year deal next year since he would be 36 at the end of it, compared to signing a 4-year deal now which would make him 35 at the end of it. That to a certain extent benefits the Patriots. That's the other part I wonder about in terms of his reaction to being franchised this year compared to signing an actual extension, especially if he's looking for a 4-year deal.

Thought experiment: if the Pats offered Welker the same exact contract they offered Moss—3 years, $27M total, $15M total guaranteed—do you think he'd take it?

 

[Jangles]

I want him to be a patriot so badly, but he has to be willing to play ball.

I'd hate to see him leave, but I just don't think he deserves to be paid like a top WR. Obviously his production suggest that he is a top WR, but I feel like a lot of that is because of the system, and Brady.

Welker isn't capable of taking a game over like Larry Fitz, or Megatron. Sure he's a great player, but the way he plays I just couldn't justify enormous money.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

If Welker catches that pass in the SB,then goes on to score a TD on that drive,there would now be lines of protesters at this very hour at Gillette demanding Kraft open his large wallet to satisfy and immediately re-sign the football hero of the SB.

But now that he missed that catch,he suddenly is forgotten by some for the 1,500 yards receiving and is now replaceable.

Welker's presence on the field opens up the flood gates for both Hernandez and Gronkowski, Edelman will simply not scare defenses like Welker does and those TEs would suddenly be seeing lots of extra coverage and would severely limit the offensive firepower from 2011.

Welker will someday be too old to be a real factor, but now is not that time; he is surely capable of at least another 1,000 yard season, something Edelman will never sniff in one season.

Get him signed NOW and then look ahead in the not too distant future to be taking care of Gronk EARLY with a long extension by late 2012.