Curious to hear everyone's thoughts on Welker

[jason423]

All though the numbers to me are a bit high this is a good post. I could see the Pats wanting de-escalators in the contract (Fitzgerald has them in his if he doesn't hit 80 receptions). I think for Wes the de-escalator would be in the 90 - 100 recption range as Wes's receptions are of the shorter variety.

The numbers were just to illustrate. I have a really hard time puttinga guesstimate in on Welker because he is unique. In the case of Fitz those dont occur until way late in his contract. The first 6 years are protected from falling, but for the most part he is never seeing year 6 of that deal let alone 7 and 8. Those years were tacked on to make the contract seem super gigantic. The only reason I can think they put those de-escaltors in there is if they decide they can ride out year 6 for cash purposes for the CBA.

 

[Joker]

show me the Patriot contract with "de-escalators" in it since Bill Belichick took over in 2000...thanx....

 

[Buchanty]

It seems inevitable from this long thread that Welker will be franchised, and while this may provide time to hammer out a new deal, if the sides are poles apart that deal will not be made. Welker, like Branch, has simpatico with Brady, and that alone will ensure that he plays for the Pats in 2012. That level of understanding is hard to find but it is still not worth paying heavily over the odds. One year of more hard knocks and it could be easier to trade or release him as much as I would hate to see Wes go. He is a shoe-in to the Patriots Hall of Fame. I just hope that his desire to continue playing with TB will mollify his need for Fitzgerald money.

I can't see how trading Welker this season and replacing him with 2 free agents and or a free agent and a draftee helps the team in 2012. WRs are such gambles, and the thought of rolling the dice on 2 of them and relying on the Boston TE party to compensate the shortfall does not fill me with confidence, as many teams can cover Gronk and Hernandez if they are the only primary threats.

I do hope that we land one of the many FA's and can't wait for the FA period to start. My priority would be:

1. Reggie Wayne - consistent, heading down from elite status, but great hands, crisp routes and a complete professional. Downside is age at 33, and potential loss of burst. He is probably the most dependable player at the best price on the market.

2. Marques Colston - I think NO will keep him, and he may want WR1 money, but 6 years of excellent production and in his prime at 28. Downside: he has been injured in 1/3 of his seasons, might not like the WR2 or 4th option position

3. Robert Meachem - 1 year younger than his teammate, but only half his production. Only started half his games, might see full time starter as an upgrade and maybe the best bang for the buck. Downside: hasn't made the jump to the level of others in this list.

4. Vincent Jackson - I was excited when rumors that we might be in the play to get him when he was in contract dispute with the Chargers not so long ago as he is a big play game changer. Downside - likely wants WR1 money and change, definitely wont like the WR2 or 4th option slot and might not help in the locker room.

5. Mike Wallace - like others I would love to see him in Patriot colors, he definitely has the speed and good hands, but - Downside: 1st round pick plus high cost contract likely too high a price considering other options. Nagging doubt due to Tomlin (I think) comment that he was a one trick pony.

6. Brandon Lloyd - Reiss is high on him as are others and one look at his highlight reel explains why. Athletic, fast, good hands and able to work with McDaniels and a complex offense. But - Downside: he only has 1 good year out of 8 and been traded for low round picks with limited optional upgrades (ie 4 or 5th). He bonded well with Orton, but does not seem to be an obvious team player. In my book he is a gamble where we need a sure thing.

7. Randy Moss - I wish I could put him up higher in the list, 2007 will always be the year of the 12-81 magic, but unfortunately he is pushed out by younger, more consistent players. I do think he has realized his past mistakes with the Patriots and he has the intelligence and skills to contribute if he is willing to expend 110% effort all of the time. He doesn't demand double coverage any more, but with WW, AH and Gronk he doesn't need to; he may have lost a step or two but he still has velcro hands and unreal extension and reach.

 

[Joker]

on point #7 I have to disagree...if Moss can't command safety coverage on deep ins or sideline go's then what difference is he from Branch?...what the Pats need to do is get a WR who will threaten the defense enough to command safety help, thereby freeing up the middle and one of Welker,AHern and Gronk...Ryan's "amoeba" defensive set is rendered impotent if a safety is extracted from the middle. I see Lloyd, Wallace and Colston as viable FA candidates, yet I expect only Lloyd to get any attention from the Pats..if that.

 

[Buchanty]

on point #7 I have to disagree...if Moss can't command safety coverage on deep ins or sideline go's then what difference is he from Branch?...what the Pats need to do is get a WR who will threaten the defense enough to command safety help, thereby freeing up the middle and one of Welker,AHern and Gronk...Ryan's "amoeba" defensive set is rendered impotent if a safety is extracted from the middle. I see Lloyd, Wallace and Colston as viable FA candidates, yet I expect only Lloyd to get any attention from the Pats..if that.

Can't disagree with you, as Moss was really my nostalgia vote and nostalgia doesn't win games. Moss would only help in 5 receiver sets (including WW, 2 TEs and Branch), and as you point out you need more offensive production than that, and the means to draw the safety on a more regular basis. He was also the last of the FAs I was comfortable putting in my list after a long internal debate. I intentionally missed out Bowe (franchise tagged), Steve Johnson and DeSean Jackson, neither of which are Patriots material though they have impressive skills.

I still think that Wayne or Meachem are better options than Lloyd for consistency/dependability and over a drafted WR unless by some miracle Justin Blackmon falls to the 2nd round. It's now a decade since we last drafted a good WR (Branch and Givens in 2002), so I am not confident that the draft is the way to go with getting this very important piece of our offense. I just wish there were more TEs in the draft (pity we lost Yeatman) as a 3rd TE blocking would certainly help.

 

[Ring 6]

And how do we know "teams will be beating down the doors" with big offers? We don't know that. There are a lot of FA WR this year and most are a lot younger then Wes.

Since the entire thread is specualtion, why would you dismiss reports that are saying this is the case?

Then take into account the type of offense needed to be run for Wes to be at his best.

One that passes?

You need to be a spread offense team like the Pats.

No you don't.

Then you have to take into account how many of these type of teams there are and how many have the need/cap space for Wes.

There are many teams with lots of cap room looking for WRs

It's easy to throw out a statement like "teams will be beating down the doors" for Wes but it doesn't mean it's true.

It has been reported. It makes sense. He just had the 19th highest receiving yardage total ever in NFL history. Just because people like o consider him a gimmick and dismiss his tremendous production doesnt mean it s true.

 

[JMarr]

He just had the 19th highest receiving yardage total ever in NFL history. Just because people like o consider him a gimmick and dismiss his tremendous production doesnt mean it s true.

A smart GM can't evaluate a player's stats or production in a vacuum, even for a guy with the intangibles that Welker has.

Yes, he has more than proven everybody wrong who ever doubted his ability. Yet ironically some questions/concerns that seem to always dog him are still there--size, physical athleticism, durability (and now age and longevity). Couple this with some inflated production he gets merely by playing with Brady and in the Pats' offense, and I believe most teams would shy away from offering him huge guaranteed money.

When you think about it from a GM's perspective, Welker is a tough call to make when it comes contract value, even for the Pats to some extent. Should he be rewarded in spades for what he has done for this team? IMO yes. However, the thing BB will be looking at is solely what he is likely to do over the next four years.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

You can put me down with those who think the Pats have to do everything reasonable to keep Welker. My guess is that will involve franchising him and/or somehow trying to work out a deal this offseason.

I don't understand the "Let him go" sentiment at all; not only is Wes a premium WR but he apparently has terrific chemistry with Brady. He's been around the Pats long enough to know that they won't pay the top position dollar for him or anyone but #12, but I'd be very surprised if some combination of cash bonus and incentives couldn't get them close enough to that kind of money to keep him on board.

I wonder how different the sentiment would be if he had made "that catch" and enabled the Pats to run out the clock for a W in Indy. He's still a clutch player who didn't make that one clutch play; but that doesn't change who he is.

 

[Ring 6]

A smart GM can't evaluate a player's stats or production in a vacuum, even for a guy with the intangibles that Welker has.

No one is suggesting evaluating his stats in a vaccuum. The stats are just short hand for how tremendous he was this year, as well as the previous one.

Yes, he has more than proven everybody wrong who ever doubted his ability. Yet ironically some questions/concerns that seem to always dog him are still there--size, physical athleticism, durability (and now age and longevity).

How do those questions dog him and are still there? You are simply making them up. His size, athletecism and durability as STRENGTHS that have helped him produce.

Couple this with some inflated production he gets merely by playing with Brady and in the Pats' offense, and I believe most teams would shy away from offering him huge guaranteed money.

Why is his production inflated by playing with Brady? Welker gets open, Brady doesnt get open for him. Its silly to diminish Welker because you want to and use Brady's ability as an excuse.

When you think about it from a GM's perspective, Welker is a tough call to make when it comes contract value, even for the Pats to some extent. Should he be rewarded in spades for what he has done for this team? IMO yes. However, the thing BB will be looking at is solely what he is likely to do over the next four years.

Its no tougher call than any other player, and in fact, probably easier because he has demonstrated over and over again the level he can play at.
Of course he is going to be judged based on what he will do going forward, but what he is producing today is the best yardstick.
Nothing you said in this response gives any credence to the idea that he will be considered a lesser player than what he has done on the field.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Have mostly kept from weighing in on this, since it's been discussed ad nauseum already, but here's my take: I'm a big Welker fan. Love the guy, one of my favorites, etc. If the Pats can keep him for reasonable money, then I'd be pumped to have him back. Not for ~8M per year on a contract that will pay him into his mid-30s, though. In general, I just don't think that WRs are worth that much, especially WRs who don't stretch the field in an increasingly TE-centric offense.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Agree with the rest of your post, but there's no chance that Welker will out a single game if he's tagged for 9M. None. This is a perfect example of why, in Welker's case, his intangibles alone will keep him on this team.

I hope you're right.

Maybe the $9 million is enough for Welker to gamble what will likely be many times that amount in bonus and guarantees as well as salary in a long term contract (assuming he does indeed want to be paid as a Top 5 WR.

Mankins wasn't willing to gamble and understandably sat out - they're under no obligation to play - and it's difficult to fault them for not wanting to risk injury and risk losing tens of millions of additional dollars

As much as I hope Welker won't sit out the first 10 games, if he does I can see it from his perspective.

It's not like he's been well compensated thus far - tough to fault a guy for seeking what the market will bear, and sitting out to avoid injury if a long-term contract is not forthcoming.

 

[supafly]

I hope you're right.

Maybe the $9 million is enough for Welker to gamble what will likely be many times that amount in bonus and guarantees as well as salary in a long term contract (assuming he does indeed want to be paid as a Top 5 WR.

Mankins wasn't willing to gamble and understandably sat out - they're under no obligation to play - and it's difficult to fault them for not wanting to risk injury and risk losing tens of millions of additional dollars

As much as I hope Welker won't sit out the first 10 games, if he does I can see it from his perspective.

It's not like he's been well compensated thus far - tough to fault a guy for seeking what the market will bear, and sitting out to avoid injury if a long-term contract is not forthcoming.

While you make a good point in regards to Welker's potential contract, the comparison to Mankins is much different.

Mankins is still a pretty young road grader with a tremendous upside and a long road ahead as a Patriot. He signed a 6 year deal here, and will hopefully continue to play at a high level for many yrs.

Welker probably only has 2-3 yrs left at such a high rate of production, and the team will obviously have to weigh their options. With Mankins, there really wasn't much difficulty in choosing--as long as they wanted to give him something 'fair' to what the better guards in the NFL were getting. The only choice was whether or not they viewed the position of guard itself as a 'need' for paying a larger money pact; not the actual player himself.

In your opening sentence you claim that there is a "gamble" for Welker to possibly make "many times" the guaranteed money on a longer term deal vs. the franchise tag...I respectfully disagree, at least in the aspect of him gambling away "many times" the overall guaranteed money. The tag nets him 9 1/2 million guaranteed this yr alone, he would be lucky to see another 9 million guaranteed in the entire life of the contract, which will probably be his last in the NFL, and that'd contract would be for another 2-3 yrs after that.

Even IF Welker gets a longer term deal (3 or 4 yrs), the guaranteed money will likely be in the high teens or early twenties at the most. He has the ability to make more than 50% of that this year alone, so the earning potential is just about the same for him no matter what. In all actuality, it may work out even better for him if the team trades him next yr, because he will then have made a guaranteed 10 million this yr, and then have the opportunity to sign another 2-3 yr deal with even more guaranteed money next yr with a new team.

Either way, Welker is going to get paid very nicely; and either way the overall salary and guaranteed money will be at least what the NEP would give him on a longer term deal this year (assuming that he is tagged for 2012, and then would play another 2-3 yrs of football here or elsewhere)...unless of course, he should suffer a career ending injury, and even then I am pretty sure that he will take out a nice insurance policy to protect him in that unlikelihood.

A strong possibility is that a longer term deal will get worked out by the middle of July, in which case all the tag would do would offer as an extension anyway. Another possibility is that Welker plays here this yr, makes a quick 10 million dollars, and then either backs down on his demands in February of next yr, or goes to another team via tag and trade. One way or another he will very likely be here in 2012.

And if he sits out and passes up the most guaranteed money in his entire career, at the age of 31-32, he's a major idiot. With a potential to make almost 10 million dollars this yr, it certainly seems as though he'd make more in the next 16 games than he did in the course of his entire 6-7 yr career. I can't see how any agent would give that kind of advice, especially for a guy who probably only has a very limited time to make money at this specific career.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I hope you're right. Maybe the $9 million is enough for Welker to gamble what will likely be many times that amount in bonus and guarantees as well as salary in a long term contract (assuming he does indeed want to be paid as a Top 5 WR. Mankins wasn't willing to gamble and understandably sat out - they're under no obligation to play - and it's difficult to fault them for not wanting to risk injury and risk losing tens of millions of additional dollars As much as I hope Welker won't sit out the first 10 games, if he does I can see it from his perspective. It's not like he's been well compensated thus far - tough to fault a guy for seeking what the market will bear, and sitting out to avoid injury if a long-term contract is not forthcoming.

The Mankins analogy is totally bogus and people like yourself and Greg Bedard need to stop making it. Mankins never held out while franchise tagged. He reported the moment the lockout was lifted. He held out on a RFA tender in 2010 that was originally $3M and got cut in half by July when he refused to sign it.

No franchise tagged player has held out of the regular season since 1997. The last one who did was a Redskins player who was tagged again in 1998 then was traded to Carolina for 2 firsts and signed to a $46M deal and never did live up to his hype. Dom Capers who traded for him called the move in hindsight a desperation driven one he lived to regret and the media termed it a debaucle trade. No one has attempted the likes of it since. The player, Sean Gilbert (Revis uncle) was useless by 2001 and out of the league by 2003.

 

[IllegalContact]

I don't believe any other team will back up the truck for welker to the point where the pats can't come close. every GM out there realizes they don't have brady placing the ball. which QB out there would be as successful in getting welker the ball the way brayd does?

there are a few places where he would be outstanding as a complement, and those teams will likely not pay what the pats would be offering here.

on top of that, with the cap applying pressure, other teams will be balancing a guy like welker against other needs.

I think the pats know he's going to be back. I think welker knows he's going to be back. he will get a nice chunk of change and play out his career with the pats and provide and recieve copious amounts of pleasure from his beautiful woman.

case closed.

 

[jmt57]

Here's a column and accompanying audio with Greg Bedard's thoughts on the topic.

Wes Welker, Patriots Both Better Off With Long-Term Extension « CBS Boston

All that being said, Bedard doesn’t see a scenario where the Patriots lose Welker.

“Basically what it comes down to for Bill [Belichick] — is this guy a good player? Does he have value for us?” Bedard said. “If he’s not, then we’re gonna let him go. Bill Belichick knows that Wes Welker is a good football player and will be for at least a few years to come. So he’s not about to let him walk out the door and sign with the Jets and have to try to cover him two or three times a year.”​

 

[Ring 6]

I don't believe any other team will back up the truck for welker to the point where the pats can't come close. every GM out there realizes they don't have brady placing the ball. which QB out there would be as successful in getting welker the ball the way brayd does?

They aren't signing him because they think their team is the one that would be best for Welker, they are signing him because he would be the best player for them.

Why wouldn't those teams with lesser QBs want to add welker to improve the play of their passing game by making the QBs job easier?

there are a few places where he would be outstanding as a complement, and those teams will likely not pay what the pats would be offering here.

There are many, many places where he would be the leading receiver.

on top of that, with the cap applying pressure, other teams will be balancing a guy like welker against other needs.

Thats not a Welker argument, thats an argument regarding all Free agents.

I think the pats know he's going to be back. I think welker knows he's going to be back. he will get a nice chunk of change and play out his career with the pats and provide and recieve copious amounts of pleasure from his beautiful woman.

case closed.

Well, thats if he is tagged. If not, it could get very ugly.

 

[JMarr]

No one is suggesting evaluating his stats in a vaccuum. The stats are just short hand for how tremendous he was this year, as well as the previous one.

Some are suggesting that because of his stats, he or his agent will be asking for Larry Fitzgerald type money, and then using this false premise to argue that the Pats should just think about moving on and plugging in Edelman . But I do agree with your second sentence.

How do those questions dog him and are still there? You are simply making them up. His size, athletecism and durability as STRENGTHS that have helped him produce.

I'm not making anything up.The guy's abilities are a fluke that other teams wouldn't know how to use to their full advantage, much less commit huge dollars to. Regardless of what he's done here, no other team is going to pay huge bucks to a short, small, vastly overachieving receiver who's one hit away from being in a body cast when they're primarily looking for the Megatrons, Jennings, and Fitzgeralds of this world.

Why is his production inflated by playing with Brady? Welker gets open, Brady doesnt get open for him. Its silly to diminish Welker because you want to and use Brady's ability as an excuse.

Huh? I'm not diminishing him at all--he's a frickin beast. But his chemistry with Brady and the way the Pats use him have been huge factors in terms of his production. It's silly to argue otherwise. How good were his "numbers" in Miami?

Its no tougher call than any other player, and in fact, probably easier because he has demonstrated over and over again the level he can play at.
Of course he is going to be judged based on what he will do going forward, but what he is producing today is the best yardstick.
Nothing you said in this response gives any credence to the idea that he will be considered a lesser player than what he has done on the field.

Sure it is. Welker is as unique of a player as there is. Not sure why you're arguing with me on this--I happen to believe that Welker is as valuable to this team as Brady and think the Pats will not let him walk. I'm just saying that both Welker and the Pats know that he would not be nearly as valuable anywhere else and this throws a curve in the negotiations.

 

[Ring 6]

Some are suggesting that because of his stats, he or his agent will be asking for Larry Fitzgerald type money, and then using this false premise to argue that the Pats should just think about moving on and plugging in Edelman . But I do agree with your second sentence.

He may ask for Larry Fitzgerald money, because he has comparable production.
He had arguably been more valuable to the Patriots than Fitz has been to the Cardinals.
The Edelman stuff is just dumb, I agree.

I'm not making anything up.The guy's abilities are a fluke that other teams wouldn't know how to use to their full advantage, much less commit huge dollars to.

I wholeheartedly disagree. He is a WR who runs WR routes and gets open more often than anyone. There is no secret mystery about how to use him. You put him on the field, and have him run routes that emphasize his quickness, agility and cutting ability.

Regardless of what he's done here, no other team is going to pay huge bucks to a short, small, vastly overachieving receiver who's one hit away from being in a body cast when they're primarily looking for the Megatrons, Jennings, and Fitzgeralds of this world.

Again, wholeheartedly disagree with all of those disparging comments about Welker. I guess those guys don't produce more than Welker because they could but just don't want to.

Huh? I'm not diminishing him at all--he's a frickin beast.

Above you just called him SHORT, SMALL, VASTLY OVERACHIEVING, AND ONE HIT AWAY FROM BEING IN A BODY CAST. Maybe insulting is a better term than diminishing.
Last post you diminished him by crediting his success to Brady.

But his chemistry with Brady and the way the Pats use him have been huge factors in terms of his production. It's silly to argue otherwise. How good were his "numbers" in Miami?

Its silly to argue that the guy who has historic levels of production is a gimmick and his production is some type of gift he should apologize for. Who cares how Miami misused him SIX years ago. I guess Drew Brees sucks because of his numbers in SD.

Sure it is. Welker is as unique of a player as there is. Not sure why you're arguing with me on this

Umm, because you are wrong.

--I happen to believe that Welker is as valuable to this team as Brady and think the Pats will not let him walk. I'm just saying that both Welker and the Pats know that he would not be nearly as valuable anywhere else and this throws a curve in the negotiations.

BS. You trashed him in this post.
Other teams see the value in his talent. You seem to think its smoke, mirrors, and luck. Welker can run the same routes and get just as open on 31 other teams.

 

[conway]

Not franchised yet....

Should we read anything into this? Obviously, a lot of teams have already used the tag. There's no one else the Pats could consider franchising. I understand they're probably negotiating a long term deal, but it's awfully quiet...

I think Welker hits the open market. Maybe the Pats re-sign him after he sees he won't get more elsewhere.

I'm curious as to whether we could sign Lloyd and Wayne for the price of Welker's franchise tag.

 

[MP-Logick]

Re: Not franchised yet....

Should we read anything into this? Obviously, a lot of teams have already used the tag. There's no one else the Pats could consider franchising. I understand they're probably negotiating a long term deal, but it's awfully quiet...

I think Welker hits the open market. Maybe the Pats re-sign him after he sees he won't get more elsewhere.

I'm curious as to whether we could sign Lloyd and Wayne for the price of Welker's franchise tag.

I assume it means they're still negotiating. I would be absolutely shocked if he is allowed to hit the open market, not to mention it would go against everything we've heard reported.