Curious to hear everyone's thoughts on Welker

[Deus Irae]

Thanks for posting the contracts. I do disagree that $8.7 mil is the floor. A big issue in this contract is age. Do the Pats pay for what Wes has done or do they pay for what they think he can do during the length of the deal. Austin signed his deal before he has even reached his prime and Steve Smith was still in his 20's when he signed.

A lot of posters here think Wes will continue the same production for the next 3 - 4 yrs. If he does so then he should be well compensated. Maybe what the Pats should do is make it a deal with big incentives.

4 year deal with base of $5 mil per yr.

bonus: all pro $1 mil
pro bowl $500k
80 catches $500K
110 catches $500k
120 catches $500k
6 TDs $500k
10 TDs $500k
900 yds $500k
1400 yds $500k

Basically a deal where if he continues to perform like he has he can earn $10 mil per year. The team is covered if his performance slips and Wes can make big $ if he plays well.

One thing that seems to be getting more clear with almost every post is that people ignore the player's side in these scenarios. Why would Welker agree to this deal when he can be assured of millions more in free agency or via the franchise tag?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

One thing that seems to be getting more clear with almost every post is that people ignore the player's side in these scenarios. Why would Welker agree to this deal when he can be assured of millions more in free agency or via the franchise tag?

Agreed.

If I had to make an offer, I'd go something like this:

Year 1: $13M SB, $3M salary
Year 2: $5M roster bonus, $3M salary
Year 3: $5M salary
Year 4: $5M salary

 

[PatsFan2]

I am going to go contrary to popular Patriot opinion here. What "IF" and that's a Big "IF" BB feels that Welker is not worth that kind of money based on the other Needs ie...Defensively on this Team and go in another direction lets say siging a Big name Defensive player. I wonder how some of us would spin it around here? After all he does shop for the groceries.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I am going to go contrary to popular Patriot opinion here. What "IF" and that's a Big "IF" BB feels that Welker is not worth that kind of money based on the other Needs ie...Defensively on this Team and go in another direction lets say siging a Big name Defensive player. I wonder how some of us would spin it around here? After all he does shop for the groceries.

Short of giving him an Albert Haynesworth contract, it'd be about the dumbest thing he could do in this scenario.

 

[PatsFan2]

Short of giving him an Albert Haynesworth contract, it'd be about the dumbest thing he could do in this scenario.

So i take it BB would Tarred and Feathered.

 

[Why?PJ]

People seem to be forgetting about Ochocinco. BB gave him $6 million last year. Anything anywhere near that would be an insult to Welker.

Welker deserves $9 or $10 million. I don't see the Pats giving him that. Best deal for the Pats is to tag him and trade him for a draft pick to get one of the top WR's in the draft.

You cannot say that dropped pass did not cost Welker money. It might not have been the easiest catch in the world, but he makes that he's super bowl MVP and the Pats have already signed him. Heck, it would have probably guaranteed him HOF.

You cannot call him always dependable any more. He was the leader and when no one was stepping up, he had a chance and he failed. While some people won't hold it against him, the credit and the success of that one pass would basically write his check for the rest of his career.

 

[Boomer B]

One thing that seems to be getting more clear with almost every post is that people ignore the player's side in these scenarios. Why would Welker agree to this deal when he can be assured of millions more in free agency or via the franchise tag?

Welker last year would have received $9.5 mil under the contract i laid out. His average year since he's been here he would have received $8 mil under the contract i laid out. I don't think those numbers ignore the players side at all. You can throw in a few other bonuses like roster bonus, minicamp bonus, etc to bring the easy to obtain $ up. Bottom line is that if he produces he gets big $.

Realistically Welker would only be franchized this year, and possibly next. No way would he get franchized for the next 4 years. We also don't know what he would receive in Free Agency. There are a lot of FA WR on the market so it's no guarantee a team would break the bank for Welker. What you don't make mention of is his age. Is it prudent for the Pats to pay Welker a huge salary in years when he may be out of his prime and not producing like he used to? An incentive type contract protects the team if he isn't producing but also has pays the player well when he is producing.

 

[Deus Irae]

Welker last year would have received $9.5 mil under the contract i laid out. His average year since he's been here he would have received $8 mil under the contract i laid out. I don't think those numbers ignore the players side at all. You can throw in a few other bonuses like roster bonus, minicamp bonus, etc to bring the easy to obtain $ up. Bottom line is that if he produces he gets big $.

Realistically Welker would only be franchized this year, and possibly next. No way would he get franchized for the next 4 years. We also don't know what he would receive in Free Agency. There are a lot of FA WR on the market so it's no guarantee a team would break the bank for Welker. What you don't make mention of is his age. Is it prudent for the Pats to pay Welker a huge salary in years when he may be out of his prime and not producing like he used to? An incentive type contract protects the team if he isn't producing but also has pays the player well when he is producing.

The franchise number for WR this year is $9.4 million, not $4.9 million.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Realistically Welker would only be franchized this year, and possibly next. No way would he get franchized for the next 4 years. We also don't know what he would receive in Free Agency. There are a lot of FA WR on the market so it's no guarantee a team would break the bank for Welker. What you don't make mention of is his age. Is it prudent for the Pats to pay Welker a huge salary in years when he may be out of his prime and not producing like he used to? An incentive type contract protects the team if he isn't producing but also has pays the player well when he is producing.

They gave Randy Moss 3 years, $27M in 2008 when Moss was going to be 31 starting the season.

I don't see why they wouldn't be willing to give Welker at least 3 years, $24M or so. Welker doesn't strike me as the diva type.

 

[JMarr]

Disagree see my post above. 3-4 million ...what are you smoking...his 5 yr production is tremendouse,he usually gets covered by the No1 guy with help.
Can you list the other 3-4 mi.llion guy who has his production over 5 yrs and gets the No1 CB from the other team?....

best plan trade him to the jets for santonio...perfect we get a player who is double of a 3-4 million guy and jets get a 9 million guy who is worth 3-4 million.... the jets will be all over it.

The only reason teams ever put a #1 corner on Welker is the lack of an outside receiver who can consistently beat one on one coverage.

But you're right--some teams might offer Welker an insane contract based in large part on sick numbers, but most realize that [as been stated ad nauseam on this board], much of Welker's success is due to his grasp of the Patriots' unique offense and his and Brady's ability to read each other's minds on any given play. This fact cannot be overstated. Put him in another offense at this point, and half of what makes him great goes out the window immediately. Welker has a unique skill set that BB uses to perfection in this offense. Aside from the Rams, few teams see much use (much less $6+M worth) for an undersized slot receiver who routinely takes as much punishment as many RBs.

He is a perfect fit in NE, and both sides know it. There's no need to pay him absolute top WR money, but the temptation to low-ball him in terms of contract length will always be there, given his size and the amount of punishment he takes.

 

[Boomer B]

The franchise number for WR this year is $9.4 million, not $4.9 million.

I know what the franchise number is this year. But by forsaking a contract and taking the tag Wes would be giving up the security of a long term contract. You take the tag you take a risk. You get good $ this year but if you don't produce like you have or you get injured you could be screwed in the years after.

 

[Boomer B]

They gave Randy Moss 3 years, $27M in 2008 when Moss was going to be 31 starting the season.

I don't see why they wouldn't be willing to give Welker at least 3 years, $24M or so. Welker doesn't strike me as the diva type.

I don't disagree with you. 3 yrs at $24 mil is at the high end in my mind ($8 mil per) but if that is what it would take to lock Wes up I would do it. If he wanted more years then 3 then i think he would have to take less then $8 mil per yr.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I know what the franchise number is this year. But by forsaking a contract and taking the tag Wes would be giving up the security of a long term contract. You take the tag you take a risk. You get good $ this year but if you don't produce like you have or you get injured you could be screwed in the years after.

It's not an either/or proposition.

Welker could sign the tag the minute he receives it and still have until mid-July to negotiate a long-term deal.

 

[JMarr]

Sadly I expect this chess game may play out with the relatively affordable tag being placed on him - with Welker just as understandably opting to sit out until week 10 to protect himself and provide leverage.

Agree with the rest of your post, but there's no chance that Welker will out a single game if he's tagged for 9M. None. This is a perfect example of why, in Welker's case, his intangibles alone will keep him on this team.

 

[Deus Irae]

I know what the franchise number is this year. But by forsaking a contract and taking the tag Wes would be giving up the security of a long term contract. You take the tag you take a risk. You get good $ this year but if you don't produce like you have or you get injured you could be screwed in the years after.

If the Patriots don't tag Welker, Welker will make more than you are trying to stick him with by hitting the market.

If the Patriots do tag Welker, Welker will make $9.4 this season, and would be in position to make $11.28m next season via the tag, meaning Welker is looking at over $20.5m, guaranteed, in 2 years, barring catastrophic injury or decline. Therefore, in order to win him over, you've got to make him happy, or he can just ride those numbers. Your numbers are a joke in comparison, because they not only don't offer security, but they demand high numbers for not-particularly-high payments.

 

[Boomer B]

If the Patriots don't tag Welker, Welker will make more than you are trying to stick him with by hitting the market.

If the Patriots do tag Welker, Welker will make $9.4 this season, and would be in position to make $11.28m next season via the tag, meaning Welker is looking at over $20.5m, guaranteed, in 2 years, barring catastrophic injury or decline. Therefore, in order to win him over, you've got to make him happy, or he can just ride those numbers. Your numbers are a joke in comparison, because they not only don't offer security, but they demand high numbers for not-particularly-high payments.

I don't think the potential to make $40 million (avg $10 per yr) is a joke. I also don't think he'd get tagged next year at $11.28 mil, so it's not guaranteed he'd make $20 mil over 2 years.

For the sake of arguement, let's assume the Pats pick up an outside WR like B. Lloyd. A good outside WR will take away some of those throws that went to Wes in the slot and also some of his TD's. If Lloyd catches 75 balls and the young TE's continue to develop I would believe that Wes would now be a 90-100 catch player instead of a 110-120. Would the Pats tag Wes at $11.28 mil? I doubt it.

It really will come down to what Bill Belichick see's as the future of the offense. If it's to continue to throw to Wes Welker for 110- 120 catches per year, then you guys are right about him deserving a huge deal ($8-$9 mil per). If Belichick goes after an outside threat and believes Wes's numbers will come down, does he still give him that huge deal? I just think that some guys say Wes produced at such a level in the past 5 years so he gets a huge deal based on that production. In my mind there are other factors that go into this decision; 1 is his age, and 2 is what does Bill see the offense look like in the future.

It's a good debate to be had and i'm sure the Pats and Wes's reps are going over some of the same things.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

It really will come down to what Bill Belichick see's as the future of the offense. If it's to continue to throw to Wes Welker for 110- 120 catches per year, then you guys are right about him deserving a huge deal ($8-$9 mil per). If Belichick goes after an outside threat and believes Wes's numbers will come down, does he still give him that huge deal? I just think that some guys say Wes produced at such a level in the past 5 years so he gets a huge deal based on that production. In my mind there are other factors that go into this decision; 1 is his age, and 2 is what does Bill see the offense look like in the future.

OTOH, a deep threat would make throwing to Welker even more effective, since he could basically be living past the first-down marker on every down.

 

[Deus Irae]

I don't think the potential to make $40 million (avg $10 per yr) is a joke. I also don't think he'd get tagged next year at $11.28 mil, so it's not guaranteed he'd make $20 mil over 2 years.

Unless he gets hurt or goes in the tank, he'll get the tag again or a big contract elsewhere if the Patriots don't re-tag him. Either way, he'll make more than $20 mill.

And your "potential to make..." is a smoke show, which you surely know. The odds of any receiver making All-Pro for 4 straight years in today's game are not good, to put it mildly. That's a $million off each year he doesn't get voted on of the top 2 receivers in the game. Then going to the 120 catch requirement for another 500k each season, when he's only hit that twice, etc...

You put up crazy incentives, lowball his guarantees, and expect the player to be happy? Come on.

For the sake of arguement, let's assume the Pats pick up an outside WR like B. Lloyd. A good outside WR will take away some of those throws that went to Wes in the slot and also some of his TD's. If Lloyd catches 75 balls and the young TE's continue to develop I would believe that Wes would now be a 90-100 catch player instead of a 110-120. Would the Pats tag Wes at $11.28 mil? I doubt it.

:bricks: Using your argument, you want Welker to accept a contract that's heavy on incentives based upon bulk numbers, and then you want to add a significant player who'll cut into those numbers, and you think Welker will accept that? Again, come on.

It really will come down to what Bill Belichick see's as the future of the offense. If it's to continue to throw to Wes Welker for 110- 120 catches per year, then you guys are right about him deserving a huge deal ($8-$9 mil per). If Belichick goes after an outside threat and believes Wes's numbers will come down, does he still give him that huge deal? I just think that some guys say Wes produced at such a level in the past 5 years so he gets a huge deal based on that production. In my mind there are other factors that go into this decision; 1 is his age, and 2 is what does Bill see the offense look like in the future.

It's a good debate to be had and i'm sure the Pats and Wes's reps are going over some of the same things.

No, it will really come down to whether or not the Patriots can make Welker happy. That's what happens when you let an 'in demand' player get to the end of his contract. But this is irrelevant to whether your contract offer is of any use. While anything is possible in this world, I'd expect Welker's agent to laugh out loud after reading your offer.

 

[Boomer B]

Unless he gets hurt or goes in the tank, he'll get the tag again or a big contract elsewhere if the Patriots don't re-tag him. Either way, he'll make more than $20 mill.

And your "potential to make..." is a smoke show, which you surely know. The odds of any receiver making All-Pro for 4 straight years in today's game are not good, to put it mildly. That's a $million off each year he doesn't get voted on of the top 2 receivers in the game. Then going to the 120 catch requirement for another 500k each season, when he's only hit that twice, etc...

You put up crazy incentives, lowball his guarantees, and expect the player to be happy? Come on.



:bricks: Using your argument, you want Welker to accept a contract that's heavy on incentives based upon bulk numbers, and then you want to add a significant player who'll cut into those numbers, and you think Welker will accept that? Again, come on.



No, it will really come down to whether or not the Patriots can make Welker happy. That's what happens when you let an 'in demand' player get to the end of his contract. But this is irrelevant to whether your contract offer is of any use. While anything is possible in this world, I'd expect Welker's agent to laugh out loud after reading your offer.

So do you think Welkers agent laughed at Bill when he offered Wes 2 yrs at $16 mil?

On my incentive based offer (which I put together in less then a minute), I basically made it so that if he has season like he had last year he gets top money ($9.5 mil), if he has an average season that he's produced ($8 mil) and if he has a poor year it would be in the $6.5 mil to $7 mil range. You can throw in other easy bonuses like roster bonus or minicamp bonus to boost it up a bit.

My question to you would be if you were Belichick what would you offer Welker if:

a) you keep the offense as is and you believe Wes can still produce at the same level he has over the full contract.

b) you will add a top FA outside WR and the offense will throw more outside then in the previous few seasons

c) you will add a top FA outside WR and you believe Wes at 34 will not be as productive as Wes at 30.

 

[Deus Irae]

So do you think Welkers agent laughed at Bill when he offered Wes 2 yrs at $16 mil?

Reports are that it was refused. Given that, you should have known that your, much worse, offer, would not fly.

On my incentive based offer (which I put together in less then a minute), I basically made it so that if he has season like he had last year he gets top money ($9.5 mil), if he has an average season that he's produced ($8 mil) and if he has a poor year it would be in the $6.5 mil to $7 mil range. You can throw in other easy bonuses like roster bonus or minicamp bonus to boost it up a bit.

Your offer sucked. If it took you less than a minute, you should have no problem taking another look at it and admitting it sucked.

My question to you would be if you were Belichick what would you offer Welker if:

a) you keep the offense as is and you believe Wes can still produce at the same level he has over the full contract.

b) you will add a top FA outside WR and the offense will throw more outside then in the previous few seasons

c) you will add a top FA outside WR and you believe Wes at 34 will not be as productive as Wes at 30.

I don't know what I would offer if I were BB, because there are a lot of factors involved here, as I've noted previously. I just know that there's a difference between trying to offer a team friendly deal and offering garbage deals.

Is Welker worth top 3 NFL receiver money?

a.) Yes, if you go by production,

b.) no, if you downgrade severely because he's a slot.


What's probably going to be the biggest question involved in getting a deal done is how much Welker is willing to allow b to impact a. One thing I wouldn't do is offer Welker a crap contract and pretend I'm doing him a favor, which is what you were trying to do with your 'offer'.