Curious to hear everyone's thoughts on Welker

[hovis]

Yet all have as good a chance of replacing Wes Welker as Julain Edelman does.

I'll admit it, I LOL'd. But just watch, the kid's got potential.

 

[BradyFTW!]

There are still people who think that Edelman can give us even a tenth of what Welker does at WR?

Anyone who thinks that is defective. Welker's skill-set consists of more than being short and white. There are a lot of other, very important traits that Edelman simply doesn't possess.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

There are still people who think that Edelman can give us even a tenth of what Welker does at WR?

Anyone who thinks that is defective. Welker's skill-set consists of more than being short and white. There are a lot of other, very important traits that Edelman simply doesn't possess.

FWIW, when Edelman broke his wrist in the Titans game, he was leading all rookies in receptions.

 

[hovis]

There are still people who think that Edelman can give us even a tenth of what Welker does at WR?

Anyone who thinks that is defective. Welker's skill-set consists of more than being short and white. There are a lot of other, very important traits that Edelman simply doesn't possess.

Again, the small sample we have where his role on the team was exactly that of Welker's, he provided roughly 85% of the average production Welker provides. I understand doubting his abilities based on the past two seasons, but it's because he's not getting snaps. And he's not getting snaps for two reasons: he's a slot receiver and WW is a slot receiver. When Edelman's produced in the past, it's been for the same reasons Welker has, good routes, good separation, good hands, and good yards after the catch.

And just so nobody misinterprets my opinion as Welker-hating, I'll be clear that I do want Welker back. I just think the Pats need to cap WR spending so they can invest more on defense. This is a Brady-centric offense, not a Welker-centric offense. I'd offer him 4 years 32 million: 2012 - $3 mill base, $3 mill bonus, 2013 - $4 mill base, $ 4 mill bonus, 2014 - $4 mill base, $4 mill bonus, 2015 - $4 mill base - $6 mill bonus. Would his agent laugh in my face? Maybe, but I'd point out David Givens', David Patten's, Deion Branch's, and Jabbar Gaffney's numbers after leaving New England. If he doesn't accept that, tag him and let him explore his options. If he wants to stick around after being tagged, offer him slightly more on the backend. If he wants to hold out for excessive compensation, trade him.

 

[Deus Irae]

Again, the small sample we have where his role on the team was exactly that of Welker's, he provided roughly 85% of the average production Welker provides. I understand doubting his abilities based on the past two seasons, but it's because he's not getting snaps. And he's not getting snaps for two reasons: he's a slot receiver and WW is a slot receiver. When Edelman's produced in the past, it's been for the same reasons Welker has, good routes, good separation, good hands, and good yards after the catch.

And just so nobody misinterprets my opinion as Welker-hating, I'll be clear that I do want Welker back. I just think the Pats need to cap WR spending so they can invest more on defense. This is a Brady-centric offense, not a Welker-centric offense. I'd offer him 4 years 32 million: 2012 - $3 mill base, $3 mill bonus, 2013 - $4 mill base, $ 4 mill bonus, 2014 - $4 mill base, $4 mill bonus, 2015 - $4 mill base - $6 mill bonus. Would his agent laugh in my face? Maybe, but I'd point out David Givens', David Patten's, Deion Branch's, and Jabbar Gaffney's numbers after leaving New England. If he doesn't accept that, tag him and let him explore his options. If he wants to stick around after being tagged, offer him slightly more on the backend. If he wants to hold out for excessive compensation, trade him.

Givens suffered a career ending injury. Branch's YPC remained steady and fine in Seattle until 2009, although his overall numbers fell due to injury and being lowered in the receiver pecking order. Patten had 3 shortened seasons in NO, but had solid numbers in the only full season he played there. Gaffney's numbers have been better since leaving New England than they ever were when he was there.

 

[Ring 6]

I'll admit it, I LOL'd. But just watch, the kid's got potential.

He is a good special teamer who has versatility. As a real WR, no, he doesn't.

 

[Ring 6]

Again, the small sample we have where his role on the team was exactly that of Welker's, he provided roughly 85% of the average production Welker provides. I understand doubting his abilities based on the past two seasons, but it's because he's not getting snaps. And he's not getting snaps for two reasons: he's a slot receiver and WW is a slot receiver. When Edelman's produced in the past, it's been for the same reasons Welker has, good routes, good separation, good hands, and good yards after the catch.

No it really isn't.
The stats you want to rely on are not reliable. And they aren't accurate either.

You posted:
5 games: 34 rec / 337 yds / 2 TDs

Projected over 16 Games: 108.8 rec / 1,078.4 yds / 6.4 TDs

Facts are Welker missed game 2 and 3 of 09 game 16 of 10 and the playoff game in 09 I assume you want to include the game Welker was injured in 09 but its not really a reasonable game to use because he was catching passes because all of the WRs were pulled after Welker was hurt.

In any event, his #s were:

2/09 8-98-0
3/09 3-20-0
16/09 10-103-0
PO 09 6-44-2
16/10 3-72-0

That is 30-337-2

Really, though what you have is the first game of his career where he was a surprise to be on the field, and a game where we played the backups and 3 games of 12 catches for 136 yards.

I suppose we could figure out a way to eliminate all the other games and only count the Houstin game and say he has proven he can put up number that work out to 160 catches over a full season.

Of course, we must ingore 11 catches in 2 seasons.

And just so nobody misinterprets my opinion as Welker-hating, I'll be clear that I do want Welker back. I just think the Pats need to cap WR spending so they can invest more on defense. This is a Brady-centric offense, not a Welker-centric offense. I'd offer him 4 years 32 million: 2012 - $3 mill base, $3 mill bonus, 2013 - $4 mill base, $ 4 mill bonus, 2014 - $4 mill base, $4 mill bonus, 2015 - $4 mill base - $6 mill bonus.

NFL contract do not have split salary and bonusses in each year.
Also, every indication is the Patriots are tagging him at 9.4 mill. You are suggesting he give that back to get 6mill this year.

Would his agent laugh in my face? Maybe, but I'd point out David Givens', David Patten's, Deion Branch's, and Jabbar Gaffney's numbers after leaving New England.

What does what a player did with another team have to do with Welkers importance to this team?
Givens was injured, Patten was injured and near retirement. Branch produced then was injured. Gaffney has done well.

If he doesn't accept that, tag him and let him explore his options. If he wants to stick around after being tagged, offer him slightly more on the backend. If he wants to hold out for excessive compensation, trade him.

If you seriously think he can be replaced by a guy who caught 11 passes in the last 2 years, why would you even consider paying him anything?
If a guy who can't even get on the field for 200 snaps all season can step right in and replace the leading receiver in the league, shouldn't we just put together a receiving corp that costs about $4,000,000 combined?

 

[JMarr]

I think a "market deal" here is in the Top 10 WR Salary range. I said $6 mill, and I'm sticking with it. All the WR salary info I've been able to find show that as being comparable for that range. But, as I just said, Welker may see his value as Top 3, and he could use certain numbers to back that up. So no, we don't all know that Welker won't hold out. You're projecting your beliefs onto the player just because you don't want him play hardball for a big payday and you don't understand how the business end of the game works. Maybe not the game itself either since you want to pay top dollar for a slot receiver when you have a backup slot receiver that provided 85% of his production in a 5-game stretch.

That's pretty naive of ya buddy. Welker will play hardball.

Not to ruin your day some more, but Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny, and unicorns don't exist.

If you think Welker is going to ask for anywhere near top 3 money you're insane. He'll be perfectly fine with about 6 or 7 million per, depending on the length of the contract. He'll seriously consider any offer that isn't downright insulting.

The potential problem here is on the Pats' end. They kind of have him over a barrel since no other team is going to value him as much as the pats. He might get 3-4 million elsewhere and the Pats will might negotiate with him accordingly, ala Mankins (which would be a mistake IMO).

However I think BB and the FO are too smart not to get an extension done with a guy who's basically irreplaceable.

 

[RobertWeathers]

If you think Welker is going to ask for anywhere near top 3 money you're insane. He'll be perfectly fine with about 6 or 7 million per, depending on the length of the contract. He'll seriously consider any offer that isn't downright insulting.

The potential problem here is on the Pats' end. They kind of have him over a barrel since no other team is going to value him as much as the pats. He might get 3-4 million elsewhere and the Pats will might negotiate with him accordingly, ala Mankins (which would be a mistake IMO).

However I think BB and the FO are too smart not to get an extension done with a guy who's basically irreplaceable.

According to The Globe, it was believed that WW was offered a 2yr-$16m deal with the money guaranteed. At this time, he has not accepted. With that said, it seems that he is looking for either more money per year & more years with more money up-front.

Caserio, Patriots preparing for next season - The Boston Globe

WW will be looking to maximize his earnings potential AND look to stay with the Pats. My gut tells me that he won't do what Branch did in 06 or what Mankins did a couple of years ago as age is not on his side and from a production and team standpoint, there is no better situation for him than right here. My .02$

 

[satz]

New Info per gasper .

In Indy during the SB it became apparent that more teams are valuing his production over the last 5 yrs independent of Tom and the offense.He was productive in Miami too ..they just never used him

anyway , he thinks alot of team flush with cap space and having a floor to reach are interested. He said this complicates things as the pats where intitially up till the SB where planning to let wes goto FA and then see his offers. Now they know for sure that he is going to get an offer from a team which will be more then what they can afford.

He will be franchised...but then wes and co are going to come up start the deal at 9million/yr as the starting point as that will be his existing salary.

satz

 

[satz]

The potential problem here is on the Pats' end. They kind of have him over a barrel since no other team is going to value him as much as the pats. He might get 3-4 million elsewhere and the Pats will might negotiate with him accordingly, ala Mankins (which would be a mistake IMO).

.

Disagree see my post above. 3-4 million ...what are you smoking...his 5 yr production is tremendouse,he usually gets covered by the No1 guy with help.
Can you list the other 3-4 mi.llion guy who has his production over 5 yrs and gets the No1 CB from the other team?....

best plan trade him to the jets for santonio...perfect we get a player who is double of a 3-4 million guy and jets get a 9 million guy who is worth 3-4 million.... the jets will be all over it.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I think a "market deal" here is in the Top 10 WR Salary range. I said $6 mill, and I'm sticking with it. All the WR salary info I've been able to find show that as being comparable for that range. But, as I just said, Welker may see his value as Top 3, and he could use certain numbers to back that up. So no, we don't all know that Welker won't hold out. You're projecting your beliefs onto the player just because you don't want him play hardball for a big payday and you don't understand how the business end of the game works. Maybe not the game itself either since you want to pay top dollar for a slot receiver when you have a backup slot receiver that provided 85% of his production in a 5-game stretch.

That's pretty naive of ya buddy. Welker will play hardball.

Not to ruin your day some more, but Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny, and unicorns don't exist.

Talk about naive, you're functionally delusional when it comes to this subject. Top ten WR money is at least $8.4M and that is a fact because it's the transition tag # this year the formula for which is based on the top 10 WR salaries over the last 5 seasons...

And I can reasonably project he will not hold out because it's a simple fact that no tagged player has held out in over a decade.

I also understand the relevance of a small sample, while despite repeatedly acknowledging it proceed to dismiss it's limitations indicating don't really grasp it's relevance.

And no player would accept the "contract" you proposed because it's structured to provide zero security while simultaneously being insultingly below market. Luckily the Patriots aren't in the habit of constructing deliberately insulting deals with guys they actually want to retain, let alone those even the owner has expressed the hope will retire as Patriots.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Top ten WR money is at least $8.4M and that is a fact because it's the transition tag # this year the formula for which is based on the top 10 WR salaries over the last 5 seasons...

The franchise tag number, I have see quoted in the 9.5M range, is for the top 5 salaries over the last 5 years

If you go to top 10, the #10 biggest WR salary is Anquan Bolden at 6M:

10. Anquan Bolden
2011 Salary $6,000,000 - Base Salary $6,000,000 - Contract 4 year / $28,000,000 - Guaranteed Money $10,000,000 - Last Year of Contract 2013 - Age 30.

9. Greg Jennings
2011 Salary $6,512,500 - Base Salary $2,700,000 - Contract 4 years / $26,885,000 - Guaranteed Money $16,250,000 - Last Year of Contract 2012 - Age 27.

8. Roddy White
2011 Salary $6,525,000 - Base Salary $4,000,000 - Contract 6 years / $48,000,000 - Guaranteed Money $18,600,000 - Last Year of Contract 2014 - Age 29.

7. Reggie Wayne
2011 Salary $8,033,333 - Base Salary $5,950,000 -Contract 6 years / $39,500,000 - Guaranteed Money $0 - Last Year of Contract 2011 - Age 32.

6. Andre Johnson
2011 Salary $8,828,571 - Base Salary $6,000,000 - Contract 7 years / $62,700,000 - Guaranteed Money $48,000,000 - Last Year of Contract 2016 - Age 30.

5. Miles Austin
2011 Salary $8,540,000 - Base Salary $8,540,000 - Contract 7 years / $57,168,000 - Guaranteed Money $18,000,000 - Last Year of Contract 2016 - Age 27.

4. Steve Smith
2011 Salary $8,550,000 - Base Salary $7,000,000 - Contract 6 years / $43,850,000 - Signing Bonus 6 years / $9,300,000 - Last Year of Contract 2012 - Age 32.

3. Brandon Marshall
2011 Salary $10,600,000 - Base Salary $6,500,000 - Contract 5 years / $47,300,000 - Guaranteed Money $25,000,000 - Last Year of Contract 2014 - Age 27.

2. Calvin Johnson
2011 Salary $12,629,133 - Base Salary $8,875,000 - Contract 6 years / $55,500,000 - Guaranteed Money $27,178,000 - Last Year of Contract 2012 - Age 25.

1. Larry Fitzgerald
2011 Salary $21,500,000 - Base Salary $20,000,000 - Contract 8 years / $120,000,000 - Guaranteed Money $50,000,000 - Last Year of Contract 2018 - Age 28

Top 10 Wide Receiver Contracts of 2011....What do you think Colston will get? - SaintsReport Community Forums


Personally I think Wes should get AT LEAST more than Steve Smith or Miles Austin based upon his production, so 8.7M per would be the floor.

And I can reasonably project he will not hold out because it's a simple fact that no tagged player has held out in over a decade.

Logan Mankins and 2010 was that long ago? Granted his holdout didn't last all season, but a half year without Wes would be pretty tough to overcome.

 

[Ian]

He is a good special teamer who has versatility. As a real WR, no, he doesn't.

I agree. I love Edelman as much as the next guy, but he's not going to be good without some talent ahead of him. He's a very good potential #3 or #4 receiver, but for those who are ready to elevate him as a #2 (or #1), it's just not realistic. They need two decent mid tier guys behind Welker to at least give them some production. Having guys who can get open and catch the ball in addition to their TE's would actually make Edelman better. However, putting all the pressure on Edelman to produce with their current group isn't going to work.

For those who don't agree, pretend Edelman's a free agent and someone brings him in as their #1 or #2 receiver. Do you honestly see him lighting up the league next season and putting up huge numbers? He's best mixed in with talent, but he's nowhere near Welker's level.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

The franchise tag number, I have see quoted in the 9.5M range, is for the top 5 salaries over the last 5 years

If you go to top 10, the #10 biggest WR salary is Anquan Bolden at 6M:

10. Anquan Bolden
2011 Salary $6,000,000 - Base Salary $6,000,000 - Contract 4 year / $28,000,000 - Guaranteed Money $10,000,000 - Last Year of Contract 2013 - Age 30.

9. Greg Jennings
2011 Salary $6,512,500 - Base Salary $2,700,000 - Contract 4 years / $26,885,000 - Guaranteed Money $16,250,000 - Last Year of Contract 2012 - Age 27.

8. Roddy White
2011 Salary $6,525,000 - Base Salary $4,000,000 - Contract 6 years / $48,000,000 - Guaranteed Money $18,600,000 - Last Year of Contract 2014 - Age 29.

7. Reggie Wayne
2011 Salary $8,033,333 - Base Salary $5,950,000 -Contract 6 years / $39,500,000 - Guaranteed Money $0 - Last Year of Contract 2011 - Age 32.

6. Andre Johnson
2011 Salary $8,828,571 - Base Salary $6,000,000 - Contract 7 years / $62,700,000 - Guaranteed Money $48,000,000 - Last Year of Contract 2016 - Age 30.

5. Miles Austin
2011 Salary $8,540,000 - Base Salary $8,540,000 - Contract 7 years / $57,168,000 - Guaranteed Money $18,000,000 - Last Year of Contract 2016 - Age 27.

4. Steve Smith
2011 Salary $8,550,000 - Base Salary $7,000,000 - Contract 6 years / $43,850,000 - Signing Bonus 6 years / $9,300,000 - Last Year of Contract 2012 - Age 32.

3. Brandon Marshall
2011 Salary $10,600,000 - Base Salary $6,500,000 - Contract 5 years / $47,300,000 - Guaranteed Money $25,000,000 - Last Year of Contract 2014 - Age 27.

2. Calvin Johnson
2011 Salary $12,629,133 - Base Salary $8,875,000 - Contract 6 years / $55,500,000 - Guaranteed Money $27,178,000 - Last Year of Contract 2012 - Age 25.

1. Larry Fitzgerald
2011 Salary $21,500,000 - Base Salary $20,000,000 - Contract 8 years / $120,000,000 - Guaranteed Money $50,000,000 - Last Year of Contract 2018 - Age 28

Top 10 Wide Receiver Contracts of 2011....What do you think Colston will get? - SaintsReport Community Forums


Personally I think Wes should get AT LEAST more than Steve Smith or Miles Austin based upon his production, so 8.7M per would be the floor.

Logan Mankins and 2010 was that long ago? Granted his holdout didn't last all season, but a half year without Wes would be pretty tough to overcome.

The transition tag represents the top ten contract average annual value the same way the franchise tag represents the top 5. Over the last 5 years. It's $8.4M. I use it as a market deal baseline. As opposed to the delusional posters who think a $6M or even $7M deal is all he's worth or could command. Then there is the issue of length. 3 years likely appeals to the team. Wes probably wants 4-5. 4 wouldn't make much difference accept in guaranteed money, and even then likely $3-4M more than a 3 year deal. The salary in year 4 would obviously not be guaranteed, unless of course they offered him rolling guarantees in which case his performance in year 3 would dictate that. So low risk unless you don't want production...

And you're seemingly muddling/confusing current salary and average contract value as well as ignoring when the deals were signed and age of player at that time.

I was going to bring up Mankins in case someone wanted to erroneously point to him as a holdout. He held out on a RFA tender which originally was $3M...and was decreased by the team because he failed to accept it to $1.5M before camp even opened. He did not holdout on the tag in 2011. He reported on time and shortly thereafter they got a deal done.

 

[Deus Irae]

... Logan Mankins and 2010 was that long ago? Granted his holdout didn't last all season, but a half year without Wes would be pretty tough to overcome.

You're confusing the Mankins years. His half-year non-signing was not about the franchise tag. That was about the RFA tender.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Welker's agent would be irresponsible to ask for anything less than what Holmes got, and in all likelihood the Patriots won't go quite that high. The Patriots should offer 4 years/36 million with 20 guaranteed, and if Welker somehow did really drop off in year 3 then they could redo the deal or cut ties with a what will be a relatively small cap hit by that time. I don't think Welker's production is going to drop off anytime soon and he would play through the end of that deal, and with his production that is a very fair deal for the team, and Welker would be giving them a home team discount to agree to it.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Well he did drop that pass in the SB, you know.

It's funny, but while I have seen some critical comments from some who blame Welker for not making that catch, any knowledgeable fan I've spoken to knows that was an imperfect rushed pass and doesn't hold that against him in the least.

I'm in the "sign the beast" mindset and don't even mind him being slightly overpaid for his past below market contract.

Sadly I expect this chess game may play out with the relatively affordable tag being placed on him - with Welker just as understandably opting to sit out until week 10 to protect himself and provide leverage.

Signing someone like Wayne would make that less painful, but I'd prefer this got worked out long before then, with Welker on the field for the entire season.

We'd still need a deep threat... Perhaps a rookie with speed, and Wayne is an upgrade there too, but Welker is a guy you absolutely need in the playoffs if you expect to win.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Sadly I expect this chess game may play out with the relatively affordable tag being placed on him - with Welker just as understandably opting to sit out until week 10 to protect himself and provide leverage.

The tag provides protection to keep someone from rushing in and offering him silly money.

I don't see it getting to a holdout, as Welker will have Brady lobbying for him.

 

[Boomer B]

The franchise tag number, I have see quoted in the 9.5M range, is for the top 5 salaries over the last 5 years

If you go to top 10, the #10 biggest WR salary is Anquan Bolden at 6M:

10. Anquan Bolden
2011 Salary $6,000,000 - Base Salary $6,000,000 - Contract 4 year / $28,000,000 - Guaranteed Money $10,000,000 - Last Year of Contract 2013 - Age 30.

9. Greg Jennings
2011 Salary $6,512,500 - Base Salary $2,700,000 - Contract 4 years / $26,885,000 - Guaranteed Money $16,250,000 - Last Year of Contract 2012 - Age 27.

8. Roddy White
2011 Salary $6,525,000 - Base Salary $4,000,000 - Contract 6 years / $48,000,000 - Guaranteed Money $18,600,000 - Last Year of Contract 2014 - Age 29.

7. Reggie Wayne
2011 Salary $8,033,333 - Base Salary $5,950,000 -Contract 6 years / $39,500,000 - Guaranteed Money $0 - Last Year of Contract 2011 - Age 32.

6. Andre Johnson
2011 Salary $8,828,571 - Base Salary $6,000,000 - Contract 7 years / $62,700,000 - Guaranteed Money $48,000,000 - Last Year of Contract 2016 - Age 30.

5. Miles Austin
2011 Salary $8,540,000 - Base Salary $8,540,000 - Contract 7 years / $57,168,000 - Guaranteed Money $18,000,000 - Last Year of Contract 2016 - Age 27.

4. Steve Smith
2011 Salary $8,550,000 - Base Salary $7,000,000 - Contract 6 years / $43,850,000 - Signing Bonus 6 years / $9,300,000 - Last Year of Contract 2012 - Age 32.

3. Brandon Marshall
2011 Salary $10,600,000 - Base Salary $6,500,000 - Contract 5 years / $47,300,000 - Guaranteed Money $25,000,000 - Last Year of Contract 2014 - Age 27.

2. Calvin Johnson
2011 Salary $12,629,133 - Base Salary $8,875,000 - Contract 6 years / $55,500,000 - Guaranteed Money $27,178,000 - Last Year of Contract 2012 - Age 25.

1. Larry Fitzgerald
2011 Salary $21,500,000 - Base Salary $20,000,000 - Contract 8 years / $120,000,000 - Guaranteed Money $50,000,000 - Last Year of Contract 2018 - Age 28

Top 10 Wide Receiver Contracts of 2011....What do you think Colston will get? - SaintsReport Community Forums


Personally I think Wes should get AT LEAST more than Steve Smith or Miles Austin based upon his production, so 8.7M per would be the floor.

Logan Mankins and 2010 was that long ago? Granted his holdout didn't last all season, but a half year without Wes would be pretty tough to overcome.

Thanks for posting the contracts. I do disagree that $8.7 mil is the floor. A big issue in this contract is age. Do the Pats pay for what Wes has done or do they pay for what they think he can do during the length of the deal. Austin signed his deal before he has even reached his prime and Steve Smith was still in his 20's when he signed.

A lot of posters here think Wes will continue the same production for the next 3 - 4 yrs. If he does so then he should be well compensated. Maybe what the Pats should do is make it a deal with big incentives.

4 year deal with base of $5 mil per yr.

bonus: all pro $1 mil
pro bowl $500k
80 catches $500K
110 catches $500k
120 catches $500k
6 TDs $500k
10 TDs $500k
900 yds $500k
1400 yds $500k

Basically a deal where if he continues to perform like he has he can earn $10 mil per year. The team is covered if his performance slips and Wes can make big $ if he plays well.