Curious to hear everyone's thoughts on Welker

[MoLewisrocks]

People seem to be forgetting about Ochocinco. BB gave him $6 million last year. Anything anywhere near that would be an insult to Welker.

Welker deserves $9 or $10 million. I don't see the Pats giving him that. Best deal for the Pats is to tag him and trade him for a draft pick to get one of the top WR's in the draft.

You cannot say that dropped pass did not cost Welker money. It might not have been the easiest catch in the world, but he makes that he's super bowl MVP and the Pats have already signed him. Heck, it would have probably guaranteed him HOF.

You cannot call him always dependable any more. He was the leader and when no one was stepping up, he had a chance and he failed. While some people won't hold it against him, the credit and the success of that one pass would basically write his check for the rest of his career.

You started out on pretty sound footing. Then you went off the rails.

Bonus wise, Chad got $5M plus a million in salary last season, the deal averages $4M per. He's due $6M more over the next 2 years. Welker is easily worth twice what Chad is or ever was on average.

Why trade him when you have until July to work out a deal? He's not going to hold out - NO PLAYER HAS IN OVER A DECADE - because of the value of the tag. It's half again as much money as he's made in his entire career to date. Not to mention that at age 31 a holdout would be assinine and Welker isn't assinine. And you can't trade him until he signs the tag which he won't likely do until well after this draft...

If he caught the pass Brady would have been the MVP. Guys make mistakes all the time. Including the HOF QB. And all pro TE's and pro bowl Olinemen and don't even start me on defense. If you devalued them all it would be impossible to field a team. Like Welker said, he makes that catch 99% of the time and that's how you get to the games the team doesn't even pay them for... None of them are always dependable anymore... Not all of them ever were. Guys made mistakes, just also made enough plays as a team to come out on top. In the last 2 superbowl games we played the Giants players made those plays. But don't kid yourself, Eli was still the MVP and the guy who caught the first TD and made the seminal moment helmet catch that even allowed for the second one was unemployed shortly thereafter...

 

[Boomer B]

Reports are that it was refused. Given that, you should have known that your, much worse, offer, would not fly.



Your offer sucked. If it took you less than a minute, you should have no problem taking another look at it and admitting it sucked.



I don't know what I would offer if I were BB, because there are a lot of factors involved here, as I've noted previously. I just know that there's a difference between trying to offer a team friendly deal and offering garbage deals.

Is Welker worth top 3 NFL receiver money?

a.) Yes, if you go by production,

b.) no, if you downgrade severely because he's a slot.


What's probably going to be the biggest question involved in getting a deal done is how much Welker is willing to allow b to impact a. One thing I wouldn't do is offer Welker a crap contract and pretend I'm doing him a favor, which is what you were trying to do with your 'offer'.

My "crap" offer would give him $8 mil per year over 4 years if he averaged the same production he has in the past. Even if he did become an average receiver he would still make close to $7 mil. I really don't think that the range of $6.5 mil in a horrible year to $10 mil in a great year is a joke.

He probably turned down Bills $16 mil offer because of the term, not the $. Also take into account that many NFL deals incorporate incentives into their deals and I don't think i'm that far off.

Another big issue that Bill has to think about is his TE's. If he signs Wes to a huge deal (say $9 mil per yr) then what does it take to resign Gronk and Hernandez? In 2 years does he want those 3 to take up over $30 mil in cap space?

 

[Deus Irae]

My "crap" offer would give him $8 mil per year over 4 years if he averaged the same production he has in the past. Even if he did become an average receiver he would still make close to $7 mil. I really don't think that the range of $6.5 mil in a horrible year to $10 mil in a great year is a joke.

He probably turned down Bills $16 mil offer because of the term, not the $. Also take into account that many NFL deals incorporate incentives into their deals and I don't think i'm that far off.

Another big issue that Bill has to think about is his TE's. If he signs Wes to a huge deal (say $9 mil per yr) then what does it take to resign Gronk and Hernandez? In 2 years does he want those 3 to take up over $30 mil in cap space?

Your offer has no guaranteed money. I could go on from that but, based upon that alone, it's DOA. Getting into the rest of it, as bad as it is, is a waste of time. Your contract offer is a joke, and no top player would do anything but laugh at it, in all likelihood.

And, as has been pointed out time and again, the cap will be going up in 2014 because of the TV deals.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

My "crap" offer would give him $8 mil per year over 4 years if he averaged the same production he has in the past. Even if he did become an average receiver he would still make close to $7 mil. I really don't think that the range of $6.5 mil in a horrible year to $10 mil in a great year is a joke.

He probably turned down Bills $16 mil offer because of the term, not the $. Also take into account that many NFL deals incorporate incentives into their deals and I don't think i'm that far off.

Another big issue that Bill has to think about is his TE's. If he signs Wes to a huge deal (say $9 mil per yr) then what does it take to resign Gronk and Hernandez? In 2 years does he want those 3 to take up over $30 mil in cap space?

Your crap offer gives him zero security. Those deals go to guys who need to prove it. Wes already has. He could literally be injured in camp and cut and receive nothing.

The only guarantee these guys ever have is their signing bonus or guaranteed money. That is intended to insure them a portion of the value of their entire deal for a reason. Football is a dangerous sport and guys suffer career ending or severely altering injuries all the time just attempting to play it, and not skateboarding or slipping on the soap in their shower. They are entitled to some protection for the risk they take, and the level of protection is based on the projected value of their talent going forward barring career altering injury.

In other sports contracts are guaranteed. Most football fans like the fact that to an extent football players still have to earn it. Keeps them honest. That doesn't mean they should get screwed over and be asked to assume all the risk. Teams/ownerships reap the rewards when players succeed and often increasingly even when they don't. They have to assume a substantial portion of the risk in order to keep them honest.

 

[Ring 6]

Thanks for posting the contracts. I do disagree that $8.7 mil is the floor. A big issue in this contract is age. Do the Pats pay for what Wes has done or do they pay for what they think he can do during the length of the deal. Austin signed his deal before he has even reached his prime and Steve Smith was still in his 20's when he signed.

A lot of posters here think Wes will continue the same production for the next 3 - 4 yrs. If he does so then he should be well compensated. Maybe what the Pats should do is make it a deal with big incentives.

4 year deal with base of $5 mil per yr.

bonus: all pro $1 mil
pro bowl $500k
80 catches $500K
110 catches $500k
120 catches $500k
6 TDs $500k
10 TDs $500k
900 yds $500k
1400 yds $500k

Basically a deal where if he continues to perform like he has he can earn $10 mil per year. The team is covered if his performance slips and Wes can make big $ if he plays well.

Why would a guy in Welkers class who will have teams beating down his door with offers, accept an incentive laden contact that looks like it belongs to an average starting WR?

 

[Snake Eyes]

Why would a guy in Welkers class who will have teams beating down his door with offers, accept an incentive laden contact that looks like it belongs to an average starting WR?

An average starting WR makes 5 mil base with the potential of an additional 5 mil?

 

[Ring 6]

An average starting WR makes 5 mil base with the potential of an additional 5 mil?

An average level WR probably does get 5mill a year in FA. Hell Santonio Holmes got 10 mill a year.The incentives dont really even need to be discussed because NFL contracts dont work that way.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

An average starting WR makes 5 mil base with the potential of an additional 5 mil?

Well, back in 2007 Stallworth signed a deal that averaged around $4-5M in base salary plus a series of option and roster bonuses, some of them contingent on participation, and half million dollar workout bonuses. Of course as fate would have it he never made it past the first year at $3.6M. If he had the deal would have averaged just over $6.5M per - you know, Welker money... Instead they gave his money and about $2.5M more to Moss - with zero hoops to jump through. Randy was 30 at the time.

 

[Boomer B]

Your offer has no guaranteed money. I could go on from that but, based upon that alone, it's DOA. Getting into the rest of it, as bad as it is, is a waste of time. Your contract offer is a joke, and no top player would do anything but laugh at it, in all likelihood.

And, as has been pointed out time and again, the cap will be going up in 2014 because of the TV deals.

They could guarantee the base salary ($5 mil x4 = $20 mil)

 

[Deus Irae]

They could guarantee the base salary ($5 mil x4 = $20 mil)

So his guarantee will be on a 4 year contract, and will still be less than the 2 years of franchising. :bricks:


Seriously, just stop, because now you're down to begging for your contract instead of just admitting it was a lousy one. This is beyond embarassing at this point.

 

[Boomer B]

Why would a guy in Welkers class who will have teams beating down his door with offers, accept an incentive laden contact that looks like it belongs to an average starting WR?

And how do we know "teams will be beating down the doors" with big offers? We don't know that. There are a lot of FA WR this year and most are a lot younger then Wes.

Then take into account the type of offense needed to be run for Wes to be at his best. You need to be a spread offense team like the Pats. Then you have to take into account how many of these type of teams there are and how many have the need/cap space for Wes.

It's easy to throw out a statement like "teams will be beating down the doors" for Wes but it doesn't mean it's true.

 

[Boomer B]

So his guarantee will be on a 4 year contract, and will still be less than the 2 years of franchising. :bricks:


Seriously, just stop, because now you're down to begging for your contract instead of just admitting it was a lousy one. This is beyond embarassing at this point.

Not begging for anything. If it's to embarrassing to you then don't read it.

It's funny that anyone with a differing opinion then you is automatically shot down as "crap" or "embarrassing". When asked what type of contract you think Belichick should give him you don't give any numbers but a question about production vs being a slot receiver.

If you look at a lot of the top recievers they have millions in escalators and misc bonuses. Greg Jennings has $3 million in incentives. Larry Fitzgerald has de-escalators for not hitting 80 receptions. Calvin Johnson had $8.5 million in incentives. You act like a contract with incentives is unheard of.

 

[MSU]

Not begging for anything. If it's to embarrassing to you then don't read it.

It's funny that anyone with a differing opinion then you is automatically shot down as "crap" or "embarrassing". When asked what type of contract you think Belichick should give him you don't give any numbers but a question about production vs being a slot receiver.

If you look at a lot of the top recievers they have millions in escalators and misc bonuses. Greg Jennings has $3 million in incentives. Larry Fitzgerald has de-escalators for not hitting 80 receptions. Calvin Johnson had $8.5 million in incentives. You act like a contract with incentives is unheard of.

Get use to it. That's just Dues. Once he runs out of things to say he will revert to his handy, "you're a troll" card.

 

[Deus Irae]

Not begging for anything. If it's to embarrassing to you then don't read it.

I did read it. You've already guaranteed his base salaries rather than admitting error in the initial contract.

It's funny that anyone with a differing opinion then you is automatically shot down as "crap" or "embarrassing". When asked what type of contract you think Belichick should give him you don't give any numbers but a question about production vs being a slot receiver.

I have no problem with differing opinions. I have a problem with poorly thought out opinions. You're trying to give a top tier receiver the sort of contract that middle tier receivers would refuse.

If you look at a lot of the top recievers they have millions in escalators and misc bonuses. Greg Jennings has $3 million in incentives. Larry Fitzgerald has de-escalators for not hitting 80 receptions. Calvin Johnson had $8.5 million in incentives. You act like a contract with incentives is unheard of.

I act like no such thing. Try not to get ridiculous. Since you pointed to Johnson, let's note that his deal was 6 years, $55 million, and I'll take your $8.5 as gospel. Out of that $55 million, $8.5 is about 15%. You're trying to set up a top shelf receiver with a contract that's lowballing the money even if he plays at an elite level, is roughly 50% incentives, and has no guarantees. That's a crap deal.

 

[Deus Irae]

Get use to it. That's just Dues. Once he runs out of things to say he will revert to his handy, "you're a troll" card.

I disagree with lots of people here. Most of them aren't trolls. Those who are, I have no problem calling out as such.

 

[hovis]

Alright. Deus Irae, MoLewisRocks, and AndyJohnson: Grow a pair and tell everyone exactly what you would offer Welker. Failure to do so will be a sign of intellectual cowardice.

I want to hear from the "experts."

 

[lurker1965]

... Release Ocho ...

Keeping Ocho through camp to see if whatever issue he had clears up* would not cost anything big. Heck, you ALREADY paid him...

*No, I don't know how training camp would help - I also don't know how it would hurt.

 

[jason423]

In regards to a potential contract it is not likely that Welker would agree to a big incentive laden deal. Thats not really normal for top level players coming off a good season. Normally what is done is a team puts de-escalator clauses towards the back end of the contract. For example lets just say the Patriots signed Welker to a 4 year 40 million dollar deal with the following base salaries:

2012- 8 million
2013- 11 million
2014- 12 million
2015- 9 million

The 8 million would be fully protected. Odds are the 11 million would also be. Year 3 would be done to insulate the Patriots. You would have a condition where if Welker fails to catch 80 passes in either 2012 or 2013 the base salary of 2014 de-escalates by 4 million. The reason those are done that way is you want the player to be protected in the event of injury early in the deal while the backend lower salaries may make it reasonable to keep the player even though he has failed to live up to his salary.

Id be surprised if NE signed Welker to a long term deal. He will be 31 when the season begins and its likely that his production is going to decline not hold steady or improve which is what most teams think when they sign a 27 year old to a deal. Its not like Welker has much leverage anyway. He is a perfect fit for the offense the team runs right now, but the numbers of potential homes for him is extremely limited. He doesnt play the outside. Hes short. He isnt some freakish athlete that can hide the mistakes of a Matt Stafford the way Calvin Johnson does. He really is the type of player the tag was made for. Short term value on a good team with questionable long term upside. Tag him now and play him and then do it again next season and try to trade him away and stock up draft picks.

 

[Boomer B]

In regards to a potential contract it is not likely that Welker would agree to a big incentive laden deal. Thats not really normal for top level players coming off a good season. Normally what is done is a team puts de-escalator clauses towards the back end of the contract. For example lets just say the Patriots signed Welker to a 4 year 40 million dollar deal with the following base salaries:

2012- 8 million
2013- 11 million
2014- 12 million
2015- 9 million

The 8 million would be fully protected. Odds are the 11 million would also be. Year 3 would be done to insulate the Patriots. You would have a condition where if Welker fails to catch 80 passes in either 2012 or 2013 the base salary of 2014 de-escalates by 4 million. The reason those are done that way is you want the player to be protected in the event of injury early in the deal while the backend lower salaries may make it reasonable to keep the player even though he has failed to live up to his salary.

Id be surprised if NE signed Welker to a long term deal. He will be 31 when the season begins and its likely that his production is going to decline not hold steady or improve which is what most teams think when they sign a 27 year old to a deal. Its not like Welker has much leverage anyway. He is a perfect fit for the offense the team runs right now, but the numbers of potential homes for him is extremely limited. He doesnt play the outside. Hes short. He isnt some freakish athlete that can hide the mistakes of a Matt Stafford the way Calvin Johnson does. He really is the type of player the tag was made for. Short term value on a good team with questionable long term upside. Tag him now and play him and then do it again next season and try to trade him away and stock up draft picks.

All though the numbers to me are a bit high this is a good post. I could see the Pats wanting de-escalators in the contract (Fitzgerald has them in his if he doesn't hit 80 receptions). I think for Wes the de-escalator would be in the 90 - 100 recption range as Wes's receptions are of the shorter variety.

 

[Joker]

Alright. Deus Irae, MoLewisRocks, and AndyJohnson: Grow a pair and tell everyone exactly what you would offer Welker. Failure to do so will be a sign of intellectual cowardice.

I want to hear from the "experts."

I'm a hard core Patriot fan...I think they should franchise him...I think they will and then, perhaps, make a long term deal down the line...if not, then he's paid for THIS season and quite well...I thought this LAST month, nothing has changed...now back to the never ending "no, MY contract offer is what they should do not yours!!!"...