Well Think the way we are seeing it is Butler is not worth a #1 pick, but Cooks is. That might have been a starting piont in BB and SP's talks about Cooks trade when Butler was put on the table or it would have been and even swap in the end.
Think we only asume some facts.
1. SP and BB are long time friends. So they are dealing honestly and both doing the best for their teams development. Im sure they are not trying to hurt the other and one might make a solid to get a deal done.
2. Butler was part of the Cooks deal as soon as BB put him on the table. BB showed he wanted Cooks more than keeping Butler. BB has what he wanted.
3. Butlers agent did not cooperate, but might have later, when backed into a corner, because BB is never going to give him the payday he wanted or close, and thinking his cash cow could be hurt or have a bad season? Might have caved. I can see BB and SP confrence calling Bulters agent, I would to pin him down. Just makes sense.
4. Saints do have a plan for Butler and a set price for a long term deal. It might be 11-12 mil, but its the best Butler will get.
5. Butler going to Saints is almost a formality for him to check things out and for SP to see if he can play in a Dome etc .. other things. Does he like DC.
6. Saints will not give up a #1st round for butler, and that is just common sense because that has not happend for awhile I think.
7. BB might want another Saints player with #2 pick from the Saints already decided.
8. But this one Im sure of BB is really smart and knows exactly where this is going with SP. This was figured out with the cooks deal, and think the agents were involed. So the contract is already written. If everyone agrees BB and SP sign off.
BB and SP wont break their word to eachother, and I asume its a even deal to help both instead of the usual NFL trades.
Same as I said Cooks is going to NE, I believe Butler is going to NO. What you get I think BB already knows and is happy with. .. and Im just making this up off my head lol
Good post...especially the stuff about Payton and BB. BB may be ruthless in some ways, but he's not backing out of a handshake agreement if, for example, another team wants to trade for Butler and BB/SP already made the agreement as part of the Cooks deal, contingent on the Saints wanting Butler of course. Most certainly Butler is not worth the 11th pick with Cooks securing #31! Aside from the talent level, Butler has one year before UFA and Cooks has two (one an option hear). Cooks is a better overall player as well in a vacuum. I still think the Saints made a good move, though, considering their strengths and weaknesses.
Here's my theory if the Butler deal happens. The Saints gave the Patriots their fourth rounder in the Cooks deal. The Patriots need to unload that pick due the Deflateate penalty...it's complicated, but essentially they would lose that pick and restore their own fourth round pick, which is later in the round. So that pick is almost certain to be traded since it is more valuable to any team than the Patriots, and there is more value in trading it than keeping it. I suspect the Patriots will trade back that pick to the Saints as part of the deal because it only made sense for them to get it knowing they would trade it, and it is acting as a placeholder. I think the Patriots would trade Butler along with restoring the Saints with their fourth round pick, and the Patriots will probably get a third round pick back from the Saints (not the one they traded...the Saints higher third round pick) along with a fifth...this is another logical Deflategate maneuver because an early fifth round pick essentially restores their late fourth round pick, which was stripped/stolen by Ginger. So there you have it,
Butler and a restored fourth for the Saints. A higher-than-before third and fifth for the Patriots, or possibly but unlikely the Saints give up a second instead; I doubt it's a second but that is possible. They will definitely use that fourth they got from the Saints as part of this trade. The only other, and third scenario I could see is the Saints trade both of their thirds (their own and the one they got from the Pats) for Butler and their fourth back. Depends on the deal BB/SP have, but I expect picks to change back into their original hands.
I think the Patriots want to move on from Butler and will get much less back than most Patriots fans expect. They are not getting a first round pick, and the Saints have a fairly high second round pick. That seems to make sense to me and explains the bizarre fourth round pick where no one understands why they would get it when it is automatically devalued.
We've been discussing on this board a lot about Butler needing to take a discount as an RFA. To cash in a year early, you can't get market value...that is just how the system works for all players. I think a contract of 11-12 a year is REALLY generous if that's what they offer him. Patriots fans love Butler. He is a great player, plays really hard, and is great at covering quicker guys. He is also usually used to shut down a team's quick, shifty receiver or #2 receiver, while a guy like Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas, or another big, strong, fast outside receiver would be handled by our #2 CB with tremendous help from Devin McCourty, who for the record I believe is more valuable than Butler overall, though comparing positions is a different discussion.
The way I see Butler is more of a Chris Harris player, a guy who is quick, physical, excels with the right matchup, such as in the slot or against little speedsters, but not long enough or strong enough to do what Aqib Talib does on the outside. They both do great at their role, but Talib's market value is much higher because he can matchup with a $15M receiver and hold his own. I think Butler is maybe worth $10M a year and that is the max, which meshes with what BB supposedly told Butler's agent (Harris is at $8.5M but market has increased since his extension, which was also a discount because he was not a UFA.). Considering Butler is an RFA, I think a reasonable deal would be in the $8-10M range. If Butler wants $14M, that would be an insane price to pay. Given the Saints desperation, I think a deal gets done for around $10M annually unless they overpay and close in closer to $12M, the range you referenced. Expect some angry Pats fans upset about paying much more to Gilmore, without realizing that both their positions and their contract statuses are very different. Best of luck. Butler is a great player and I'm sure he will continue to play his butt off...we all wished he would be a career Patriot, especially as a Super Bowl hero and UDFA to pro bowler (another Chris Harris similarity! Maybe that is why I keep comparing these two in their market value.)
Side note: I love Payton. His tweet to the Patriots when Brady started his BS suspension was probably the most ballsy, respectful, and awesome gesture that anyone outside the organization made to this fan base. It won't be forgotten. SP knows what Goodell did and was the only person with the balls to call it, rather than tip toeing around it like everyone else who know Tom got railroaded. I've always wished he would eventually replace Belichick here, even before that classy tweet. First time I have ever liked social media/twitter.
