2020 season prediction

[jmt57]

I keep seeing “experts” talk about the terrible Buccaneers defense



5th overall in total defensive DVOA
12th overall in pass defense DVOA
1st overall in run defense DVOA


The Buccaneers actually had the 6th greatest run defense of all time according to DVOA. They were behind

2000 Ravens
1991 Eagles
2015 Jets
1998 Chargers
2014 Lions

From what little I have seen, a lot of 'experts' are talking up the Bucs defense, pointing to how their D improved late in the season. While I understand the logic - and the fact that Jameis Winston created so many problems (Tampa had the most giveaways of any team last year) - I'm still a bit skeptical.

Yes, their run defense was good - but opponents were incredibly successful throwing against Tampa in 2019.
#32 in opponent pass play percentage (66.3%)
#31 in opponent completions per game (25.5)
#30 in opponent passing yards per game (270)
#29 in opponent passing first downs per game (13.9)
#29 in opponent plays from scrimmage per game (67.1)
#25 in opponent interception percentage (1.81%)
#17 in sack percentage (6.61%)

Overall the Tampa defense was mediocre at best.
#29 in points allowed (28.1 points per game)
#28 in scoring efficiency (.418 points per play)

The Bucs are also going to need to improve their own running game; last year they ranked 24th in rushing (95.1 yards per game) and were 28th with 3.7 yards per carry. Their wide receivers and tight ends are excellent, but that can sometimes make for great fantasy football teams more than great NFL teams. I'm very curious to see how it will pan out this season.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

If the Patriots are bad enough for 1-15- they aren’t but say it happens - let’s face it Lawrence ain’t gonna matter cause there are way bigger problems on both sides of the ball

seems to me that the colts went 1 and 15 a few years back!
They drafted luck. And soon after they were back in the playoffs.

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

Season?

What season?

 

[captain stone]

I’m curious about what makes you think the bills are a better team than the patriots.
They don’t have a better defense.
They don’t have a better qb
They don’t have a better ol/running game.
They don’t have a better coach.

What are you basing your assessment on?

Much Better WRs (obviously, since Nobody has worse WRs).
For now, probably better TEs.
Comparable OL: better OTs though a little thinner at C/G.
Better DL: better DEs, just as thin at DT.
Comparable LBs: much better ILBs though thinner at OLB.
Better K/P combination.

And the RBs aren't that much worse than ours.

 

[captain stone]

If that's the case... can't see Brady getting much past .500 if he stayed here.

Would've been 10-6 tops if Brady had stayed.

 

[venecol]

I'm staying with my pre-Cam projection of 8-8. I don't see Cam adding that much more given the mediocre WR/TE weapons and lack of chemistry, pre-season games, etc. How will Cam perform during NE winter weather if he lasts that long. The D aside from DBs is suspect and will be exposed during second half like last year. Team just lost too many experienced players to expect much even with good coaching.

Losses: @SEA, @KC, SF, @BUF, BAL, @HOU, @LAR (TH), @Mia
Wins: MIA, NV, DEN, @NYJ, ARZ, @LAC, BUF, NYJ
Home: 6-2
Road: 2-6
GMS 1-8: 4-4
GMS 9-16: 4-4

Pats miss the playoffs for first time since 2008.

 

[sb1]

I'm staying with my pre-Cam projection of 8-8. I don't see Cam adding that much more given the mediocre WR/TE weapons and lack of chemistry, pre-season games, etc. How will Cam perform during NE winter weather if he lasts that long. The D aside from DBs is suspect and will be exposed during second half like last year. Team just lost too many experienced players to expect much even with good coaching.

Losses: @SEA, @KC, SF, @BUF, BAL, @HOU, @LAR (TH), @Mia
Wins: MIA, NV, DEN, @NYJ, ARZ, @LAC, BUF, NYJ
Home: 6-2
Road: 2-6
GMS 1-8: 4-4
GMS 9-16: 4-4

Pats miss the playoffs for first time since 2008.

I got 9-7.

Wins: 5 in the division + wins against Arizona, Vegas, Rams and Houston.
Losses to Ravens, KC, 49ers, Bills once, Chargers, Seahawks, Broncos

I think the AFC Least is being way overrated by many. I don't see how it's improved all of a sudden... it still stinks imo and that's why I think Pats surprise and go 5-1 in the division. 9-7 with a 5-1 division record may be good enough to win it. If not then if the results above play out that gives them a 7-5 AFC record with unfavorable H2H results against WC competition like Chargers and Broncos. Getting a WC spot might be tricky but we'll see. Hopefully they can keep the winning record streak alive.

I think the run game will be a big surprise and I don't think teams are that well prepared to defend it without live game reps and preseason. All depends on health especially the QB. If that goes south look out below.

 

[sb1]

The Pats don't have the TE threat to become the Ravens offense of last year and Cam is not as fast as Lamar - but I think they'll give it a shot.

Expecting to see a few huge rushing games this year from the offense.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I keep seeing “experts” talk about the terrible Buccaneers defense



5th overall in total defensive DVOA
12th overall in pass defense DVOA
1st overall in run defense DVOA


The Buccaneers actually had the 6th greatest run defense of all time according to DVOA. They were behind

2000 Ravens
1991 Eagles
2015 Jets
1998 Chargers
2014 Lions

Brady made a wise decision which we will see play out soon.

The Patriots weren’t interested in making Tom a “legacy” QB and giving him whatever he wanted contractually (not about money but commitment.)

The Patriots roster is badly damaged through years and years of unfruitful drafts. Happens to every team eventually.

Bucs are in absolutely prime position like Denver in 2012. They have a lot of great rookie contracts, loaded at the skill positions and defense. Like Tebow in Denver, Winston had really ****ed the perception of Tampa offense and defense. In addition, the offensive line protection will automatically improve with Brady.

It was sleeping juggernaut in Tampa, an elite QB away from real dominance. I think they might be rusty early but will be the NFL’s best team by November.

 

[scott99]

If I was a betting man, I’d bet you all a fortune. Pats will go 11-5 or 12-4. Is this a Super Bowl team ? Probably not, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they wind up in the AFCCG. This is of course if they stay relatively healthy, not too many KEY injuries.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

If I was a betting man, I’d bet you all a fortune. Pats will go 11-5 or 12-4. Is this a Super Bowl team ? Probably not, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they wind up in the AFCCG. This is of course if they stay relatively healthy, not too many KEY injuries.

we got a tough schedule, if we did go 12-4 with this roster, bb should be coach of the year and we should bank up a brinks truck to resign newton!

 

[italian pat patriot]

we got a tough schedule, if we did go 12-4 with this roster, bb should be coach of the year and we should bank up a brinks truck to resign newton!

Impossible to disagree...

 

[luuked]

we got a tough schedule, if we did go 12-4 with this roster, bb should be coach of the year and we should bank up a brinks truck to resign newton!

Now that you bring up resigning Newton. To me one of the most interesting subplots will be to see if they will give him an extension sometime in the next 4-8 weeks. It will tell you a lot about what the coaches think about him and also how much of the lip service he is doing right now in various interviews is real.

The longer he will remain on his current modest deal the more pessimistic I will be about a continued collaboration.

 

[captain stone]

Now that you bring up resigning Newton. To me one of the most interesting subplots will be to see if they will give him an extension sometime in the next 4-8 weeks. It will tell you a lot about what the coaches think about him and also how much of the lip service he is doing right now in various interviews is real.

The longer he will remain on his current modest deal the more pessimistic I will be about a continued collaboration.

I wouldn't even entertain an extension with him until the bye week at the earliest.

 

[luuked]

I wouldn't even entertain an extension with him until the bye week at the earliest.

They have been around him for more than 4 weeks of practice now. If he looks exactly as they hope he will in the first 5-6 games then there is not much reason not to explore if something can be arranged. Which would be more or less around the BYE.

If he does everything what you expect and keeps improving at a steady rate than there is not much more you will learn. Health is not something that can be tested that way anyway. He might get injured the game after he signs the extension or be fine for another 3 years. That is something to address in the contract.

 

[sb1]

They have been around him for more than 4 weeks of practice now. If he looks exactly as they hope he will in the first 5-6 games then there is not much reason not to explore if something can be arranged. Which would be more or less around the BYE.

If he does everything what you expect and keeps improving at a steady rate than there is not much more you will learn. Health is not something that can be tested that way anyway. He might get injured the game after he signs the extension or be fine for another 3 years. That is something to address in the contract.

If they extend Cam you’d have to think Stidham isn’t long for this team.

 

[luuked]

If they extend Cam you’d have to think Stidham isn’t long for this team.

Hoyer will be a goner next year anyway. Might as well keep polishing Stidham and see where he is at next offseason. There is some overlap between him and Newton in terms of mobility so he'd be a fine backup on a budget contract.

 

[sb1]

Hoyer will be a goner next year anyway. Might as well keep polishing Stidham and see where he is at next offseason. There is some overlap between him and Newton in terms of mobility so he'd be a fine backup on a budget contract.

Hope we can see if he has what it takes to be a
starter. Not sure if it’s here though.

 

[Free_Pacman]

Know this will upset a majority of this board, but,

Patriots 11-5
Buccaneers 8-8 and miss the playoffs.

Regardless of what their records are, there is ZERO chance Bucs have a better record than the Patriots. ZERO.

 

[sb1]

Know this will upset a majority of this board, but,

Patriots 11-5
Buccaneers 8-8 and miss the playoffs.

Regardless of what their records are, there is ZERO chance Bucs have a better record than the Patriots. ZERO.

This season nothing is what it appears to be on paper. All it takes is one positive Covid case in a locker room and it will go from there.