12 picks, 5 QBs

[PatsFanInVa]

No, not a prediction (at least not on purpose)... a flashback. Here's a flashback to what everybody thought in 1999...

Couch, Culpeper, McNabb, Akili Smith, Cade McFreakinNown???
Come on, one of these guys is BOUND to be the next Montana. Well, not the next Montana. Nobody alive today could possibly see the equal of Joe Cool again. But definitely the next big thing.

It's 1999 baby, do NOT wait another year on your quarterback needs, and for God's sake, pick high to get your man... the prospects do not get any better!

Just a reminder that no matter how exciting a given crop is, the draft continues to be the draft.

 

[DarrylS]

The draft is at best, a crapshoot, that make millions of $$$$ for all of the draft soothsayers and prognosticators. Any team in the NFL can and will be criticized for its hits, misses and overestimation of talent.

A while ago "Street and Smith's" was the go to guide, now with the interweb in full bloom anyone can have a venue and an opinion, it is even better if it can be monetized.. so many "experts" who think they know all...

Every day there is a new mock, but everyone I read is remarkably close to the one the day before.

I respect the posters on this board who do their homework and come up with reasonable mock drafts, they make as much sense as any of the alleged "professionals" do..

 

[Kontradiction]

Good thread.

 

[BlueThunder]

I enjoy making MY mock and getting to say when the actual pick is made....WTF or At Least it was a NEED.....

 

[Captain Cliche]

Seems to me they usually get the top 10 right then all hell breaks loose with trades, etc.

 

[Captain Cliche]

What happened to Seattle?
They seemed to be nailing the draft with Sherman, Wilson, Bennett, et al?
Their talent and drafting seemed to fall off the table.

 

[Kontradiction]

What happened to Seattle?
They seemed to be nailing the draft with Sherman, Wilson, Bennett, et al?
Their talent and drafting seemed to fall off the table.

Pete hasn’t had as much familiarity with the new crop as the years have gone on. When he first came over, he had actually scouted a lot of these guys during the recruiting process at USC. So he likely already had a lot of detailed notes on guys like Chancellor, Sherman, etc. Jax might be in a similar situation with Meyer right out of the gates. Same with Carolina.

 

[Deus Irae]

 

[Kontradiction]

 

[Bill Lee]

It's 1999 baby, do NOT wait another year on your quarterback needs, and for God's sake, pick high to get your man... the prospects do not get any better!

Just a reminder that no matter how exciting a given crop is, the draft continues to be the draft.

It seems to me to be interesting how last year was supposed to be the big QB draft, leaving not much except for Lawrence in this years draft, to it ending up being five QBs in the top N picks. If it goes to expectations, I think this year will either be an outlier ( everyone figures out they over-valued QB and under-valued all the other position players ) or a trend setter ( everyone figured out trading away huge draft capital to get a QB early is worth it ). I'm thinking it's the former rather than the later.

It's interesting how two things can both be true:
1) Picking in the first round is a crap shoot, almost fifty percent of QBs signed in the first round don't sign a second contract with their team*
2) Odds for success get far worse round by round**

Also, both sources say odds drop steeply from #1 overall to #10 to #16 to #33.

* NFL Draft Prep: How Successful are First Round Picks? – QB List

** Success rates of drafted quarterbacks

 

[Ring 6]

No, not a prediction (at least not on purpose)... a flashback. Here's a flashback to what everybody thought in 1999...

Couch, Culpeper, McNabb, Akili Smith, Cade McFreakinNown???
Come on, one of these guys is BOUND to be the next Montana. Well, not the next Montana. Nobody alive today could possibly see the equal of Joe Cool again. But definitely the next big thing.

It's 1999 baby, do NOT wait another year on your quarterback needs, and for God's sake, pick high to get your man... the prospects do not get any better!

Just a reminder that no matter how exciting a given crop is, the draft continues to be the draft.

When you don’t have a qb, you have over 70 mill in cap space and the highest draft choice you have attained in 20 years, the time is now. We built a strong team that lacks a QB. We will probably pick around 20 next year if we don’t fix the qb.
Picking at 20 with far less cap space and an apparent willingness to trade up to get the QB puts us in worse shape next year, where people will still argue it doesn’t have to be this year.
If you like mediocrity take no risk, and maybe you might get to a one and dine in the wild card round every 4-5 years if all goes perfectly.

Couch was ruined by being on an expansion team abs shouldn’t even be considered.
Mckown was a stupid pick and every one knew it. Mcnab had a good career and Culpepper had arguably become one of the top few QBs in the league before being hurt.
Akili Smith was another bonehead move.


I’m not sure why you think teams expect they are drafting the GOAT, which Montana was at the time. No one is drafting another Brady now or ever. That’s not a reason to accept you have to have the worst QB in the nfl.

The cost to get a good qb is high, as is the risk. But the cost of not having one is wallowing in mediocrity.

 

[Patsgofor4]

Are we trying to go for a record on the site for the most draft posts that are added as new threads but really shouldn’t be new threads?....because there are several right now.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Hey, for my part, I religiously check the "is there already a thread on this" suggestions. Now if your sole contribution to a thread is "thread sucks," something tells me you could use your time elsewhere. That's just me.

I do salute the great time investments in arguments, agreements, advice, answers, articulate announcements, babble, burble, banter, bicker bicker bicker, brouhaha, balderdash, ballyhoo, etc., to quote a brighter light, so do carry on. Nobody's bashing the investment, ye of thin skin; just a reminder that the future is unwritten no matter how written it looks.

Also, to Captain Cliche, agreed... it's like the cone of uncertainty in a hurricane... you have a pretty good idea where it'll be half an hour from now, but by the end of the week the possible position can be anywhere in the state

 

[PatsFanInVa]

It seems to me to be interesting how last year was supposed to be the big QB draft, leaving not much except for Lawrence in this years draft, to it ending up being five QBs in the top N picks. If it goes to expectations, I think this year will either be an outlier ( everyone figures out they over-valued QB and under-valued all the other position players ) or a trend setter ( everyone figured out trading away huge draft capital to get a QB early is worth it ). I'm thinking it's the former rather than the later.

It's interesting how two things can both be true:
1) Picking in the first round is a crap shoot, almost fifty percent of QBs signed in the first round don't sign a second contract with their team*
2) Odds for success get far worse round by round**

Also, both sources say odds drop steeply from #1 overall to #10 to #16 to #33.

* NFL Draft Prep: How Successful are First Round Picks? – QB List

** Success rates of drafted quarterbacks

And don't even get me started on ahem my perception of NE's 1st round vs later round success rate. I am a draft expert, and I would rather line up behind Connie Chung than Eugene Chung. HEYO. I mean, other than Hightower, Chandler Jones, Devin McCourty, Jerod Mayo, Logan Mankins, Benjamin Watson, Vince Wilfork, Ty Warren, Daniel Graham, Richard Seymour, Robert Edwards (Peace Be Upon His Leg), Terry Glenn, Ty Law, Willie McGinnest, and Drewwww, who has ever worked out for us from the first round? Since the 90s I mean? I remember Eugene Chung and Hart Lee Dykes. Sometimes Lowrent Maroney.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Are we trying to go for a record on the site for the most draft posts that are added as new threads but really shouldn’t be new threads?....because there are several right now.

I am all for new threads. There are some thin-skinned people who don't like disagreements in their 'look at how great I am' draft threads, and also we're less than 4 days out so let's keep the different topics flying around.