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What would a trade up to 7 cost

2021 Patriots Season:
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Dec 6th

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40yrpatsfan

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Assume the 1st round is underway and BB wants to trade up to 7 or 8 ahead of Denver to get a QB he likes. I don't know if that's for Lance or Fields or Jones, but at least one of them will be available at #7 or 8 for sure.

What might do it is this package with Detroit at #7:
- swap our 2nd (46) for their high 3rd (72)
- they receive our low 4th (139)
- they receive our 2022 2nd
- if necessary sweeten the deal with one of our two 6th rounders, as the Lions don't have a 6th or 7th rounder.

The Lions end up with a great draft board, drafting 15, 41, 46, their other 3rd (101), two 4ths (112/139), a 5th and a 6th. Plus next year they'd have two 2nd's.

That's overpaying according to the point charts, but still leaves us with a decent draft board:
- we had two 6th's and three 4th's, so giving up one of each is not a big sacrifice
- the swap of 46 for 72 is a major step down, but it's not giving up a pick outright, it just changes from a mid-2nd to a high 3rd
- we could get back up into the 2nd round by packaging 72 with one of our other 4th's (122) to move up to the 58-62 range.
- at that point our board would be 1(7), 2(60), 3(96), 4(122), 5(177), 6(188), and 7(242). We'd have our QB, still have a pick in each round, and the only part that dings us is giving up the 2022 2nd which is likely in the 52-62 range.
 

ChrisR2223

Pro Bowl Player
Assume the 1st round is underway and BB wants to trade up to 7 or 8 ahead of Denver to get a QB he likes. I don't know if that's for Lance or Fields or Jones, but at least one of them will be available at #7 or 8 for sure.

What might do it is this package with Detroit at #7:
- swap our 2nd (46) for their high 3rd (72)
- they receive our low 4th (139)
- they receive our 2022 2nd
- if necessary sweeten the deal with one of our two 6th rounders, as the Lions don't have a 6th or 7th rounder.

The Lions end up with a great draft board, drafting 15, 41, 46, their other 3rd (101), two 4ths (112/139), a 5th and a 6th. Plus next year they'd have two 2nd's.

That's overpaying according to the point charts, but still leaves us with a decent draft board:
- we had two 6th's and three 4th's, so giving up one of each is not a big sacrifice
- the swap of 46 for 72 is a major step down, but it's not giving up a pick outright, it just changes from a mid-2nd to a high 3rd
- we could get back up into the 2nd round by packaging 72 with one of our other 4th's (122) to move up to the 58-62 range.
- at that point our board would be 1(7), 2(60), 3(96), 4(122), 5(177), 6(188), and 7(242). We'd have our QB, still have a pick in each round, and the only part that dings us is giving up the 2022 2nd which is likely in the 52-62 range.
I think a trade up would involve a player like JC Jackson or Gilmore.
I could see a team like Detroit who is trying to change the culture pay market or higher for a guy like Gilmore to be a leader and culture change.

15 and Gilmore for 7
 

Ivan

Hall of Fame Poster
I think a trade up would involve a player like JC Jackson or Gilmore.
I could see a team like Detroit who is trying to change the culture pay market or higher for a guy like Gilmore to be a leader and culture change.

15 and Gilmore for 7
I think you are projecting what you want it to cost, not what it would cost. Trades like these, especially on draft day almost never include players, they are pick trades. The lions would likely want the #15 as well as next years 1st.
 

40yrpatsfan

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I think you are projecting what you want it to cost, not what it would cost. Trades like these, especially on draft day almost never include players, they are pick trades. The lions would likely want the #15 as well as next years 1st.
It wouldn't necessarily have to include a 1st though - plus if I'm the Lions I'd want some reward in this draft, not wait a year. Just from an impartial view, the price for moving up from 15 should be something like: a 4th gets you to 13, a 3rd gets you to 11, a 2nd gets you to 8 or 9, which is very close to 7. So there are other ways to craft a package than assuming a 1st must be part of it.
 

patsinthesnow

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Assume the 1st round is underway and BB wants to trade up to 7 or 8 ahead of Denver to get a QB he likes. I don't know if that's for Lance or Fields or Jones, but at least one of them will be available at #7 or 8 for sure.

What might do it is this package with Detroit at #7:
- swap our 2nd (46) for their high 3rd (72)
- they receive our low 4th (139)
- they receive our 2022 2nd
- if necessary sweeten the deal with one of our two 6th rounders, as the Lions don't have a 6th or 7th rounder.

The Lions end up with a great draft board, drafting 15, 41, 46, their other 3rd (101), two 4ths (112/139), a 5th and a 6th. Plus next year they'd have two 2nd's.

That's overpaying according to the point charts, but still leaves us with a decent draft board:
- we had two 6th's and three 4th's, so giving up one of each is not a big sacrifice
- the swap of 46 for 72 is a major step down, but it's not giving up a pick outright, it just changes from a mid-2nd to a high 3rd
- we could get back up into the 2nd round by packaging 72 with one of our other 4th's (122) to move up to the 58-62 range.
- at that point our board would be 1(7), 2(60), 3(96), 4(122), 5(177), 6(188), and 7(242). We'd have our QB, still have a pick in each round, and the only part that dings us is giving up the 2022 2nd which is likely in the 52-62 range.

Good post. 7 is the spot to trade up as the Bengals & Dolphins seem to be locked in to picking Sewell or Chase. The Lions are going to need as much draft capital as they can get in the future after losing Stafford, Golladay & Jones (as well as taking on Goff's contract). They would also be trading out of conference which helps somewhat.

The simple trade is 15 & a future 1st for 7. However, I would prefer the creativity in preserving that pick as you've described.
 

Ring 6

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I think a trade up would involve a player like JC Jackson or Gilmore.
I could see a team like Detroit who is trying to change the culture pay market or higher for a guy like Gilmore to be a leader and culture change.

15 and Gilmore for 7
I don’t think the team that fired matt Patricia will look to New England for culture change.
 

JMC00

Pro Bowl Player
If the QB they want is still there......

 

Ivan

Hall of Fame Poster
Good post. 7 is the spot to trade up as the Bengals & Dolphins seem to be locked in to picking Sewell or Chase. The Lions are going to need as much draft capital as they can get in the future after losing Stafford, Golladay & Jones (as well as taking on Goff's contract). They would also be trading out of conference which helps somewhat.

The simple trade is 15 & a future 1st for 7. However, I would prefer the creativity in preserving that pick as you've described.
I wouldn’t rule out the Dolphins trading down again. If Atlanta goes for Pitts, and the Bengals take Chase I think the fish will look to move out of #6.
 

Ivan

Hall of Fame Poster
It wouldn't necessarily have to include a 1st though - plus if I'm the Lions I'd want some reward in this draft, not wait a year. Just from an impartial view, the price for moving up from 15 should be something like: a 4th gets you to 13, a 3rd gets you to 11, a 2nd gets you to 8 or 9, which is very close to 7. So there are other ways to craft a package than assuming a 1st must be part of it.
I’m not saying that’s the only pick they would take, more that it’s the type of value they will look for. But I do think that’s the cleanest way to get it done.
 

Sciz

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That seems unnecessarily complicated. The chart says 7=15+46, and then you can throw in whatever day 3 sweeteners to seal the seal. Trading a future 2nd into the present 3rd can be a separate trade with a different team 24 hours later. No need to include it in the first round trade.
 

PATSYLICIOUS

Pro Bowl Player
The 49ers gave up 2 firsts and a 3 rd to go from 12 to 3. And that was early on, closer to draft day we get higher the price may go. Since its not also a top 5 pick it wont cost as much but it will be in that ballpark. Imo at least 15 + a first and a third
 
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40yrpatsfan

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The 49ers gave up 2 firsts and a 3 rd to go from 12 to 3. And that was early on, closer to draft day we get higher the price may go. Since its not also a top 5 pick it wont cost as much but it will be in that ballpark. Imo at least 15 + a first and a third
I don't think we're making a deal that requires a 2022 1st, nor should we have to. SF overpaid, and it was to #3 not 7.

We'll have to include a 2nd, but I'd rather that be a 2022. Then we need to give up something in this year's draft to make it appealing.
 

jah

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If there's a real QB left at 7, the chart values won't matter. That pick will cost at least two firsts. That might even be the case if a player like Pitts is there.
 

zimmy

Third String But Playing on Special Teams
the trade chart won't mean much in that situation, especially after the 49ers inflated the market. Any team will need to overpay - Detroit isn't moving down unless the deal involves an extra 1st. The only scenario where you might get away with trade chart value is if you are moving up for a non-QB.
 

PATSYLICIOUS

Pro Bowl Player
I don't think we're making a deal that requires a 2022 1st, nor should we have to. SF overpaid, and it was to #3 not 7.

We'll have to include a 2nd, but I'd rather that be a 2022. Then we need to give up something in this year's draft to make it appealing.

They overpaid but unfortunately that sets the market now. They moved up 9 spots and we’d be moving up 8 , and a lower caliber pick so yes it’ll take less but not a ton less, gonna need at least a first and change. You have to take into account what other teams might be willing to do... it’s not the standard pick chart calculation this year.
 

40yrpatsfan

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the trade chart won't mean much in that situation, especially after the 49ers inflated the market. Any team will need to overpay - Detroit isn't moving down unless the deal involves an extra 1st. The only scenario where you might get away with trade chart value is if you are moving up for a non-QB.
We don't know what Detroit will demand to move down from 7 to 15. If we're the only team offering a deal, then it still may be worth it to them to take what we offer, with no other 1sts involved. I doubt the Lions want to move all the way down to 19 for Washington's pick, so who else needing a QB is gonna be bidding to move to 7? I can't think of anyone.
 

ChrisR2223

Pro Bowl Player
We don't know what Detroit will demand to move down from 7 to 15. If we're the only team offering a deal, then it still may be worth it to them to take what we offer, with no other 1sts involved. I doubt the Lions want to move all the way down to 19 for Washington's pick, so who else needing a QB is gonna be bidding to move to 7? I can't think of anyone.
Maybe they hustle Denver out of a mid round pick to move up 1 and still get their guy.
 

40yrpatsfan

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They overpaid but unfortunately that sets the market now. They moved up 9 spots and we’d be moving up 8 , and a lower caliber pick so yes it’ll take less but not a ton less, gonna need at least a first and change. You have to take into account what other teams might be willing to do... it’s not the standard pick chart calculation this year.
There's no "market". It's what 2 teams agree to, though it's influenced by the demand. If we're the only team bidding, the only market is what Detroit and NE can agree to in about 5 minutes while on the clock.
 
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