What would a trade up to 7 cost

[Ivan]

If I am sitting in the seat of Detroit's GM, whatever New England offers I soon get off the phone and call Denver, to see if they make a better deal.

The Broncos can simply match the Pats proposal and win this bidding process, since they have a better draft slot - unless the Patriots make an outlandish submission (doubtful), or include a player that Denver cannot compete with.

The flip side of that is that they will get more in return from NE, it’s just a matter of how far they want to drop. NE is actually in a good position this year as the QB’s should push top position players down, and NE isn’t past the position for the top players, but I think it starts to drop off a little after #17, but that depends upon who drops and if there are surprises, which there usually are. This is easily the most interesting draft that I have seen in years, but that’s also due to being a Patriots fan.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

I said in the other thread that if Lance, Pitt, Sewall, or fields is there at 7/8 I would be fine with 15, 46, and next years 2nd for any one of them. Everyone else is not worth the capitol and just take BPA at 15. Maybe even a small trade down to the early 20's and get Z. Collins while picking up an extra 2nd.

I agree with that take, but would rather not give up our 2nd this year and instead create an alternative package. If Jones is the only QB left at 7/8 then wait till he falls to 11 and trade up then.

 

[zipster9]

I think BillB and folks have written down on the trade partners and what is needed to trade up.

They now have to wait till draft day to see if the kid they are targeting has not already been taken in the top 3-4 picks...

Still hoping for - Trey Lance.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

The Jimmy Johnson trade chart is not really useful anymore because now you have the rookie pay scale. So say you are at 7 and you think you could get the same guy you want at 10, the 7th pick gets a contract worth $24,099,130 (total for 4 years) whereas the 10th pick gets a contract of $20,141,444 and the 15th pick gets a contract for $15,586,376. So you save $9 million in actual money to move down from 7 to 15. granted you are not getting the same player at 15 as you would at 7, but you have to consider is he worth $9 more than the guy at 10?

Many times, especially now with the rookie wage scale, teams want to move back, because they know their guy can be had lower so why not move back and save the money, but they can't find a trading partner.

Lets look at last year, in the first round the following tackles were drafted:

#5 Giants, Andrew Thomas $32,345,588
#10 Cleveland Jedric Willis $19,702,914
#11 Jetes Mekhi Becton $18,446,048
#13 Buc Triston Wirfs $16,288,026
#29 Titans Isiah WIlson (already cut) $11,568,389 Tits had to pay him over $6 million for 2 snaps!

But you can see the other 4 tackles are easily interchangeable and some would say you could even go backwards in draft order to gauage their effectiveness in their rookie years. (Wirfs, Becton being higher than Thomas Willis). But the Bucs are paying Wirfs HALF of what the Giants are paying Thomas over their first 4 years.

The bottomline is, if a team doesn't really see a difference in who they are going to take, then moving down is really in the teams best interest, so don't expect a kings ransom, last year the Bucs traded pick 117 to move up one spot from 14 to 13 (they also go a 7th rd pick in return too).

The Pats traded down 13 spots into the second round and only picked up a late third round pick for it.

The rookie pay scale makes these top ten picks very hard to trade, because no one wants the salary that goes with them.

 

[mgteich]

I think BillB and folks have written down on the trade partners and what is needed to trade up.

They now have to wait till draft day to see if the kid they are targeting has not already been taken in the top 3-4 picks...

Still hoping for - Trey Lance.

Lance, who would be a solid starter in 2023.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Baltimore needs a quality receiver bad!

Baltimore is not adverse to weight challenges athletes. See Jackson!

If wr smith is on the board at 15, can bb get 27 and 31 from Baltimore for 15 and 120?

 

[mgteich]

Baltimore needs a quality receiver bad!

Baltimore is not adverse to weight challenges athletes. See Jackson!

If wr smith is on the board at 15, can bb get 27 and 31 from Baltimore for 15 and 120?

BALT is certainly a possibility for moving down. Which #4 receiver is worth the 15th pick? I would think that we'd need to give a 3rd instead of a fourth, but that is a matter of negotiation.

 

[JarOfMayo51]

Would cost our 2021 1st, 2022 1st and 2023 2nd at a minimum to move from 15 to 74

Correction:
Would cost our 2021 1st, 2022 1st and 2023 2nd at a minimum to move from 15 to 4

would probably only take 2021st, 2021 2nd and a later pick to move to 7.. but depends how much Lions want to play ball, Patricia isnt there anymore

 

[pazrul72]

I agree with that take, but would rather not give up our 2nd this year and instead create an alternative package. If Jones is the only QB left at 7/8 then wait till he falls to 11 and trade up then.

Jones is not on my list. I dont think he is worth trading up for and would be fine risking that he falls to 15. If he doesn't that means horn, parson, or surtain has fallen and I would rather have one of them plus davis mills in the 2nd then giving up capital for Jones. IMO regardless of who they draft the rookie is going to need to sit for half a year to a year and get up to NFL speed learning from Cam. Which is why I prefer the upside of Lance or Fields both of whom I think could be excellent starters with a year of understudy to Cam. Rookie QBs don't win championships for a reason and I do not understand the people who think trading an entire draft for a "first round QB" will magically transform the pats into Superbowl contenders. This is about next year when Cam is gone and I want to give a rookie the same treatment Brady, Mahomes, and Aaron Rodgers got. That no pressure year to grow is so important and while I think Cam is a bottom 1/3rd starter in the league he is a solid vet with a great work ethic I wouldn't be horribly upset with either of Lance/Fields modelling.

 

[mgteich]

. If he doesn't that means horn, parson, or surtain has fallen and I would rather have one of them plus davis mills in the 2nd then giving up capital for Jones..

not necessarily
5 qb
1 te
3 wr
2 cb
2 ot
1 lb
==========
We have no guarantee at all of getting Belichick's choice of quarterback in the second. Even if he has 2 that he believes can succeed, both could be gone before we pick in the 2nd. I doubt that Belichick believes in more than two of the 2nd tier quarterbacks.

 

[captain stone]

Would cost our 2021 1st, 2022 1st and 2023 2nd at a minimum to move from 15 to 7

If that's what the Loins are seeking then I would never, ever, Ever, EVER EVAH make that trade for ANY of these non-Trevor Lawrence QBs.

Accepting that "offer" is akin to "volunteering" for a suicide mission.

 

[Ring 6]

If the Loins insist upon our 2022 1st-rounder, then they can GFT.

What good is the 2022 first rounder if you don’t have a QB?

 

[mgteich]

What good is the 2022 first rounder if you don’t have a QB?

the hope seems to be able to trade up in 2022 (using the 2023 1st of course) and pick someone like Lance to start in 2024.

 

[Ring 6]

the hope seems to be able to trade up in 2022 (using the 2023 1st of course) and pick someone like Lance to start in 2024.

Why are you putting high first rounders on the bench for 2 years?
Why would we waste a year when we have every ability to go get the qb now?

 

[JarOfMayo51]

If that's what the Loins are seeking then I would never, ever, Ever, EVER EVAH make that trade for ANY of these non-Trevor Lawrence QBs.

Accepting that "offer" is akin to "volunteering" for a suicide mission.

i agree its way too steep a price, but I think it will take significant amount draft capital or a high end player to move up into that #7 pick

 

[40yrpatsfan]

Would cost our 2021 1st, 2022 1st and 2023 2nd at a minimum to move from 15 to 7

No it wouldn't. It may be doable with a package of 2-3-4's as described at the top of this thread.

The cost matters. Paying a premium doesn't guarantee you a result, except there's a good chance it can backfire badly. Saying we need Lance or Fields no matter what the price is ludicrous. But at the right price it's a good move, we'd all like to see a talented understudy on the bench this year.

It's not like we have no QB at all. Cam is a seasoned vet who's positioned to have a comeback year. Stidham's a 3rd year backup with arm talent. Plus there's the Jimmy G option still hanging around, which is the best one in terms of getting better immediately. So we won't panic and overpay with future 1sts.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

i agree its way too steep a price, but I think it will take significant amount draft capital or a high end player to move up into that #7 pick

The reason I think it could happen for a lot less is dependent on the questions of "what does Atlanta do at 4", "what's Denver's intention", and "how far are the Lions willing to drop"?

If Alt doesn't go QB, that means there's 2 QB's falling to 7, reducing the value of Detroit's pick.

If Denver would rather draft a stud position player and stay with Lock, who looked pretty damn good against us last year if you recall, then there's no other team between 7 and 15 in the QB market, which reduces the value of pick 7.

I doubt the Lions want to drop all the way to 19 or 20 no matter how much Wash or Chi offer, there appears to be a talent drop-off at 14-15. But it's a threat no doubt.

Another question is "who does SF pick". If it's not Jones, then there's a great chance that Jones falls all the way to 15 - no trade needed at all. If it is Jones, I don't see either Fields or Vance falling that far and we'll need to make a move if we want one of them.

 

[captain stone]

What good is the 2022 first rounder if you don’t have a QB?

Because if we trade up for Fields, Lance or even Jones, we still might not have a QB...And then we have NO draft capital to try again next year...

 

[captain stone]

i agree its way too steep a price, but I think it will take significant amount draft capital or a high end player to move up into that #7 pick

I have no interest whatsoever in trading for the #7 pick at that price...None.

It's beyond time that Bill starts learning how to play poker with these other GMs and call their bluffs...from #4 through #8...If there are two QBs sitting at #9 then let Denver take whom they want and then - and ONLY THEN - call Dallas for the #10 pick...Much MUCH cheaper to acquire...

 

[ashley]

If the qb that we are very interested in is still available at number 7, I think it will take two first round picks( number 15 this year and next year's number one) if we can somehow work out a trade involving only this year's number one and this year's number two, I think we would have done very well.