What would a trade up to 7 cost

[40yrpatsfan]

Maybe they hustle Denver out of a mid round pick to move up 1 and still get their guy.

Yeah, certainly possible. Denver would have to sniff out that somebody's about to jump them, cause otherwise they just sit tight. But if that offer were made, Detroit would have to pick between a Denver 3rd to move back 2 spots vs the package NE offers to move back 8 spots.

 

[Steve102]

the trade chart won't mean much in that situation, especially after the 49ers inflated the market. Any team will need to overpay - Detroit isn't moving down unless the deal involves an extra 1st. The only scenario where you might get away with trade chart value is if you are moving up for a non-QB.

Unless you're Bill. The chart will mean a lot to him. On paper, @Sciz is right, 15+46 equals approx 7. Where Bill will excel in it is trading 2022 picks. You could see Bill going 15 plus 122 and 188 and then next years 2nd for 7. That's a pretty good return for dropping 8 spots.

I don't disagree with you tho, I think that Detroit will want another 1st.

 

[Ivan]

We don't know what Detroit will demand to move down from 7 to 15. If we're the only team offering a deal, then it still may be worth it to them to take what we offer, with no other 1sts involved. I doubt the Lions want to move all the way down to 19 for Washington's pick, so who else needing a QB is gonna be bidding to move to 7? I can't think of anyone.

I think Washington is going to be active as well, and that is the question. I doubt the Lions will want to go that far down either.

 

[captain stone]

If the Loins insist upon our 2022 1st-rounder, then they can GFT.

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

Yeah, certainly possible. Denver would have to sniff out that somebody's about to jump them, cause otherwise they just sit tight. But if that offer were made, Detroit would have to pick between a Denver 3rd to move back 2 spots vs the package NE offers to move back 8 spots.

Agreed I think Elway would overpay to grab a QB he feels is the guy.
Patriots should then start buying Low on Lock.

 

[chasa]

5 hot dogs from the hot dog stand down the street.

 

[Lansdowne]

I think a trade up would involve a player like JC Jackson or Gilmore.
I could see a team like Detroit who is trying to change the culture pay market or higher for a guy like Gilmore to be a leader and culture change.

15 and Gilmore for 7

The Lions spent their 3rd overall pick in last year’s draft for Okudah to be their CB1. This year’s draft is deep at CB if they really want to go that route in Day 2 or 3 to upgrade CB2. Gilmore is not the missing piece that’s going to make them into contenders overnight, and they’d have to pay him when they already are stuck with $41m in dead cap space this year. The Lions would almost certainly prefer an extra first rounder as opposed to a guy on the wrong side of 30, on the last year of his deal, looking for another big contract. And we’ve already seen with Jackson that teams would prefer to keep their second round pick rather than to give that up on top of trying to sign him. He doesn’t equal first round value either. To trade up with Detroit, it will take picks. Multiple early round picks.

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

The Lions spent their 3rd overall pick in last year’s draft for Okudah to be their CB1. This year’s draft is deep at CB if they really want to go that route in Day 2 or 3 to upgrade CB2. Gilmore is not the missing piece that’s going to make them into contenders overnight, and they’d have to pay him when they already are stuck with $41m in dead cap space this year. The Lions would almost certainly prefer an extra first rounder as opposed to a guy on the wrong side of 30, on the last year of his deal, looking for another big contract. And we’ve already seen with Jackson that teams would prefer to keep their second round pick rather than to give that up on top of trying to sign him. He doesn’t equal first round value either. To trade up with Detroit, it will take picks. Multiple early round picks.

Ok
I’m just thinking you can’t have too many great corners and who better for Okudah to learn from?
It maybe the difference form Okudah being a good to great player to a all time great player.
I could be totally off base.
I think teams will overpay a winner and a culture changer.

 

[Taxed in Maine]

Too much for an overrated QB prospect.

 

[Lansdowne]

Ok
I’m just thinking you can’t have too many great corners and who better for Okudah to learn from?
It maybe the difference form Okudah being a good to great player to a all time great player.
I could be totally off base.
I think teams will overpay a winner and a culture changer.

I hear you. I think a team a corner away from having a dominant defense would benefit from Gilmore, but Detroit isn’t that team. I don’t see him exactly as a culture changer. KG was a culture changer for the Celtics. Brady was a culture changer for the Bucs. That sort of thing.

If the Pats try offering Gilmore around, that’s a sign he’s going to walk after this season, and then anyone can sign him without giving up players or picks to do so. Honestly I would rather the Pats try to keep him around. If they did the trade you proposed, that leaves the Pats short of a CB starter for this season, and they obviously wouldn’t have to trade up to 7 just to draft another corner. Plus do you really want JC Jackson to be the CB1 next season, assuming they can even sign him? I don’t. I’m not sure exactly what it would take, I just think it’s going to involve picks more than it will involve vets.

 

[farn]

Casserly’s mock has Fields at 24. Somewhere, BB is saying « I told you so.. »

 

[Lansdowne]

Too much for an overrated QB prospect.

Maybe, maybe not. Can’t assume it will cost the same as what the Niners paid for the 3. The problem is where are you going to find the QB?

It is rare that top established franchise QBs make it to free agency, and if they do, it will take a huge amount of money and cap space. That leaves trading, which also gets expensive considering what it cost the Rams to get Stafford (on top of dumping Goff and his salary), and before the massage parlor stuff with Watson there were all kinds of outrageous speculation of how many first and second round picks it would take just to have the privilege of taking on his huge contract.

So if you can’t sign a difference making QB and don’t want to trade for one, all that’s left is drafting one. And if you’re not a basement dwelling franchise, unless you’ve lucked into a delicious trade like the Dolphins have with the Texans, you’re not going to be picking near the top unless you trade up to get there, and there are a lot of bad teams. The Pats were only 2 games better than the Lions last season, yet they pick 8 spots lower than them.

You can hope to find a franchise guy outside of the first round but those hit less frequently than the first round tends to. There’s no obvious solution to this, not to me at least. But you have to pay if you want to play, either in draft capital, or paying a high market value in salary, or in losing seasons.

 

[mgteich]

I think you are projecting what you want it to cost, not what it would cost. Trades like these, especially on draft day almost never include players, they are pick trades. The lions would likely want the #15 as well as next years 1st.

DET might accept more picks this year, and perhaps a 2nd next year.

 

[mgteich]

We don't know what Detroit will demand to move down from 7 to 15. If we're the only team offering a deal, then it still may be worth it to them to take what we offer, with no other 1sts involved. I doubt the Lions want to move all the way down to 19 for Washington's pick, so who else needing a QB is gonna be bidding to move to 7? I can't think of anyone.

think harder
The following teams may be interested in QB #5, especially if Jones goes at 3: DEN, CAR, CHI, WASH and NE.

Yes, WASH would need to offer more than we would, perhaps an additional pick.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

think harder
The following teams may be interested in QB #5, especially if Jones goes at 3: DEN, CAR, CHI, WASH and NE.

Yes, WASH would need to offer more than we would, perhaps an additional pick.

Denver maybe. Carolina no. Chi & Wash are too far down for Detroit to want to drop.

 

[pazrul72]

I said in the other thread that if Lance, Pitt, Sewall, or fields is there at 7/8 I would be fine with 15, 46, and next years 2nd for any one of them. Everyone else is not worth the capitol and just take BPA at 15. Maybe even a small trade down to the early 20's and get Z. Collins while picking up an extra 2nd.

 

[mgteich]

I said in the other thread that if Lance, Pitt, Sewall, or fields is there at 7/8 I would be fine with 15, 46, and next years 2nd for any one of them. Everyone else is not worth the capitol and just take BPA at 15. Maybe even a small trade down to the early 20's and get Z. Collins while picking up an extra 2nd.

I understand. You would only give the 3 top picks for one of top stars.

The alternative isn't necessarily picking at 15. There are certainly players who I might move up to 13 to get.

 

[mgteich]

I said in the other thread that if Lance, Pitt, Sewall, or fields is there at 7/8 I would be fine with 15, 46, and next years 2nd for any one of them. Everyone else is not worth the capitol and just take BPA at 15. Maybe even a small trade down to the early 20's and get Z. Collins while picking up an extra 2nd.

I get it. Only those players would be worth using a future 2nd and this years second.

I can see us moving up to 13 at the cost of our 3rd. It just depends on whether there is someone there that Belichick really wants.
=======================
If all the quarterbacks are gone, we could trade one pick (with trade backs possibly) to get to anywhere between 8 and 14.

I don't know who is top 10 on Bill's Board, but I might trade up for an OT or a CB. Of course, if Belichick doesn't have a strong favorite, he can just wait.

 

[Ross12]

Casserly’s mock has Fields at 24. Somewhere, BB is saying « I told you so.. »

That just seems crazy. Sounds like Aaron Rodgers all over again. Jockeying for being the top pick during the season with Lawrence but ends up going way later and is the 5th QB taken despite doing absolutely nothing wrong... oh no, an anonymous scout questioned his competitive desire and he has epilepsy...

 

[jmt57]

If I am sitting in the seat of Detroit's GM, whatever New England offers I soon get off the phone and call Denver, to see if they make a better deal.

The Broncos can simply match the Pats proposal and win this bidding process, since they have a better draft slot - unless the Patriots make an outlandish submission (doubtful), or include a player that Denver cannot compete with.