Are Patriots Tanking or is this a “Bridge Year”?

[XLIX]

Not if the team is as otherwise depleted as this mess is.

Bull. Cincinnati drafted a top QB one year and a top WR the next. In that 2 year period, they went from 2-14 to the Super Bowl. Don't tell me we are more of a mess than the 2-14 Bengals were.

 

[TheRainMaker]

I don't think the coaching staff/FO will be judged on the record this year, maybe even next. If Kraft just mindlessly wanted to go back to the playoffs they wouldn't have $50M cap space left. I think the key for them is selling Kraft that the team is progressing.

I think what gets them fired quick would be if they go 4-13 again or something like that, but no one is developing. Like on the OL, if it ends up being Okorafor/Sow/Andrews/Leverett/Onwenu and Wallace/Robinson/Strange all look lost and it feels like a jumbled mess going forward. And at WR if none of the young guys really play well and it's Bourne/Osborn dominating the snap counts and leaving us feeling like we're still close to starting over at WR next year. And of course if Maye plays poorly if they throw him out there and looks lost and/or earns bad practice reviews. So on and so forth.

Heck, even if a bunch of the vets play well like I mentioned where Brissett has one of those random good bridge QB years, Bourne/Osborn play solid at WR, and 1 year vet signings Okorafor/Leverett stabilize the OL and they squeak out 7 wins, I think Kraft grades that more negatively than if they go 4-13 with a lot of young player progress.

Scott Pioli confirmed in "The Dynasty" had the Brady experiment failed in 2001, Bill, the coaching staff and FO were going to get canned in 2001. Bob also insinuated this about Bill in the documentary. Going back to the Carroll years, the moment he missed the playoffs, he was canned for things out of his control.

Josh McDaniels (a BB disciple), was so bad in LV, he was canned before his 2nd season was finished after given a large deal. Owners change their minds all the time. If Mayo does worse this season (which I believe he will given the current roster, him being a first year HC/staff), his leash will get very short in 2025. On the other hand, if he gets 6-7 wins, his stock with Kraft will rise.

 

[Ring 6]

Welp I didn't see that list, but heard. I don't disagree with the take that you want to not only rebuild the top but also the middle and lower class.


Personally I would've hoped for a league-wide premium name at OL Coach. I want a coach that we know is great, so it's easier to assess players, whose more confident in rolling with a lineup instead of rotations on rotations. Hands down the most frustrating position group IMO.

We'll see. I hope you're wrong not to make me right, but so we get some good football in a year and have some promising signs to watch along the way.

I hope I’m wrong too. I’ve always been the biggest optimist on this board when it comes to the Patriots. I would always try to ignore the knee jerk reaction and try to see why they would be doing what they are doing, and it would usually make sense to me whether I agreed or not. And it was clear every move was based upon a goal of having a better chance to win.

Now I just don’t see it. Nothing they are doing makes sense within a construct of winning us what matters. I cant understand the reasoning.

 

[Ring 6]

Bull. Cincinnati drafted a top QB one year and a top WR the next. In that 2 year period, they went from 2-14 to the Super Bowl. Don't tell me we are more of a mess than the 2-14 Bengals were.

Sorry to tell you but the only way we are better than that mess is if we hit on the QB. If he’s not the guy, we really have nothing at all to build on.
Name the 3 best players on our roster who will be here in 2027.

 

[FCB02062]

It's a rebuild that didn't have to be a rebuild if Belichick didn't f#kk up many drafts if a row, completely bundle many personnel decisions, and if Kraft weren't a cheap azz owner

 

[TheRainMaker]

Sorry to tell you but the only way we are better than that mess is if we hit on the QB. If he’s not the guy, we really have nothing at all to build on.
Name the 3 best players on our roster who will be here in 2027.

Dugger
Peppers
Rham
Barmore assuming he's able to play again.
Gonzalez needs to play a full season before anointing him.

That's it. It's a pretty brutal list.

 

[Hyped]

More people have bought in to the Project 2027 concept and they have started their own movement in honor of its founder..

Yeah, the "Fellowship of the Miserable" bandwagon has gained some steam lately....

I still remember 2001....while that might have been an one-in-a-million event...it clearly demonstrated that things change in the NFL very fast...

 

[MrTibbs]

Their OL is probably the worst in the league. Their QB roster is probably bottom five. There is no WR1. They have maybe three above average NFL starters on their roster (Onwenu, Gonzales, Barmore). I think it's betwen Carolina and the Patriots for the worst team in the league. I wouldn't call it tanking--they're just a really bad team.

Can you give me the winning Powerball numbers next week? Maye hasn't played a down in a regular season game yet and you have NO idea what we have at WR yet. Yeah they need more talent but let it play out and see who stays and who goes after this 2024 season. You must of been on "team Michael Bishop" back in the day. Total panic, pre-judging and have no clue what the team and players really are right now.

 

[Hugepatsfan]

I hope I’m wrong too. I’ve always been the biggest optimist on this board when it comes to the Patriots. I would always try to ignore the knee jerk reaction and try to see why they would be doing what they are doing, and it would usually make sense to me whether I agreed or not. And it was clear every move was based upon a goal of having a better chance to win.

Now I just don’t see it. Nothing they are doing makes sense within a construct of winning us what matters. I cant understand the reasoning.

You don't see it because you made up this narrative in their head that Kraft is just trying to save money and not spend up to the cap and imagined that the mandate for that will continue forever with no end in sight.

The CBA requires them to pay out 90% of the cap, in cash, from 2024-2026. They have to pay a lot of players a lot of money over the next few years to hit that. I promise you, they're going to sign players with the money they didn't use this year. It was widely considered a weak FA class because the higher-than-anticipated cap spike offered many teams the flexibility to tag or extend their free agents.

Maybe you're right and they'll never spend money, or never spend it on anyone worthwhile. But I think it's kind of crazy to default to that vs. the much more reasonable take that they're just rolling the money over to future seasons because they didn't love this FA class and would rather devote most of their playing time to younger guys to see who sticks.

 

[PatsFan2]

Jennings is just as good at edge defense as Judon. He has to make a jump as a pass rusher and so does Keion White. Uche needs to get and stay healthy.

Part of a good pass rush is also dependent on our offense being able to score and put opponents in situations where our D can pin their ears back and pass rush.

I'm not going there.

 

[Hugepatsfan]

Scott Pioli confirmed in "The Dynasty" had the Brady experiment failed in 2001, Bill, the coaching staff and FO were going to get canned in 2001. Bob also insinuated this about Bill in the documentary. Going back to the Carroll years, the moment he missed the playoffs, he was canned for things out of his control.

Josh McDaniels (a BB disciple), was so bad in LV, he was canned before his 2nd season was finished after given a large deal. Owners change their minds all the time. If Mayo does worse this season (which I believe he will given the current roster, him being a first year HC/staff), his leash will get very short in 2025. On the other hand, if he gets 6-7 wins, his stock with Kraft will rise.

True, but those are somewhat different situations. McDaniels took over a playoff team and was tasked with taking it to the next level. BB took over a team that was 8-8 and in the SB 4 years prior with a lot of the same core - the expectation with him was that the core needed to compete was in place to turn it around but they just needed to get the salary cap in order and play more disciplined.

Mayo is taking over a 4-13 team and they're sitting on $50M of unused cap space. Kraft is alluding to a bad record in interviews. They expect to suck this year, Kraft included. If they suck like they expect to, hard for me to see Kraft holding that against them. If he was insistent on competing immediately or at least trying to, they'd have operated differently this past offseason. He'd have mandated it.

 

[TheRainMaker]

I'm not going there.

I think he’s referring to run defense. Judon wasn’t that great while it’s a strength for Jennings. However, Jennings is worthless when it comes to rushing the passer.

 

[1960Pats]

I think they are tanking.
Patriots version of “the process” used by sixers

Evidence:

1. Signing Jacoby Brissett
2. Not addressing OL adequately in draft or free agency
3. Trading Judon
4. Drafting Maye who they know will take years to develop
5. Resigning their own average free agents to multiyear contracts
6. Hiring the most inexperienced head coach and DC in the league

I agree with the strategy. They desperately need infusion of blue chip talent over several years and top 5 picks is surest way to do this.

The attempt to sign Ridley or Aiyuk would not have moved the neeedle

Failure to prioritize OL rebuild is surest sign of tank

1. They had to sign someone. They didn't have a QB and needed someone to hold the fort until they did.
2. They got shafted by the large increase in the cap that allowed more of the top FAs to re-sign. Bad timing.
3. I'm not sure they had a choice with Judon.
4. I think Maye will develop and it will happen quicker than 4 years. The problem is that Bill's offense was so putrid that it has a lot of holes.
5. They have to get players from somewhere and their players are known quantities. Judon wasn't because of his injury.
6. I'm very happy that Mayo is the HC and I'd give him plenty of time to work out. He doesn't have big shoes to fill as he does holes to fill. Bill the genius left this offense in pathetic shape.

 

[Ring 6]

You don't see it because you made up this narrative in their head that Kraft is just trying to save money and not spend up to the cap and imagined that the mandate for that will continue forever with no end in sight.

The CBA requires them to pay out 90% of the cap, in cash, from 2024-2026. They have to pay a lot of players a lot of money over the next few years to hit that. I promise you, they're going to sign players with the money they didn't use this year. It was widely considered a weak FA class because the higher-than-anticipated cap spike offered many teams the flexibility to tag or extend their free agents.

Maybe you're right and they'll never spend money, or never spend it on anyone worthwhile. But I think it's kind of crazy to default to that vs. the much more reasonable take that they're just rolling the money over to future seasons because they didn't love this FA class and would rather devote most of their playing time to younger guys to see who sticks.

I didn’t make anything up in my head. I watched what happened and see conclusions.
They have to pay 89% of the cap in CASH over 4 years.
They are over 100% this year (because they had so few players signed). If thr cap remains constant Kraft can underspend it by $150,000,000
266x4 = 1064 b. X 89% = 947 - 300 mill spent this year = 647. 647/3 = 216, he can spend 50k less than the cap IN CASH each of the next 3 years.
Cash spending is more than cap because up front cash is amortized. So it could be even less cap spending.

So they do not have to spend what they didn’t this year, and can underspend even more in future years.
But if spending was a bad thing to do this year, why would it be a good thing next year? People are arguing it is wrong to spend so why is it right in the future?
They really didn’t even participate in this free agency class. There were dozens of players at all levels that would have made this team better. If you are telling me they think they are all set and none of those free agents are better than what we have, that’s even worse because then the have no clue.

Look at it this way. If they were not hamstrung by Kraft refusing to spend and THIS is the best they could do, this would be the worst front office ever

 

[PatsFan2]

Jacoby Jones.

 

[Thelonious]

Bull. Cincinnati drafted a top QB one year and a top WR the next. In that 2 year period, they went from 2-14 to the Super Bowl. Don't tell me we are more of a mess than the 2-14 Bengals were.

Look. Cite as many exceptions to the rule as you like. You build a winning team from the inside out, not by snatching at shiny objects, wasting resources on vain hopes when you should be doing the work of building the team to a point where it makes sense to gather the final few pieces, typically "proven"players of shorter-term use than the draftees you should be developing now, and then going for it. Are we the Jets now?

 

[Hugepatsfan]

I didn’t make anything up in my head. I watched what happened and see conclusions.
They have to pay 89% of the cap in CASH over 4 years.
They are over 100% this year (because they had so few players signed). If thr cap remains constant Kraft can underspend it by $150,000,000
266x4 = 1064 b. X 89% = 947 - 300 mill spent this year = 647. 647/3 = 216, he can spend 50k less than the cap IN CASH each of the next 3 years.
Cash spending is more than cap because up front cash is amortized. So it could be even less cap spending.

So they do not have to spend what they didn’t this year, and can underspend even more in future years.
But if spending was a bad thing to do this year, why would it be a good thing next year? People are arguing it is wrong to spend so why is it right in the future?
They really didn’t even participate in this free agency class. There were dozens of players at all levels that would have made this team better. If you are telling me they think they are all set and none of those free agents are better than what we have, that’s even worse because then the have no clue.

Look at it this way. If they were not hamstrung by Kraft refusing to spend and THIS is the best they could do, this would be the worst front office ever

Cash spending is higher than cap dollars this year because of the signing bonuses that are cash spent but not counted against the cap. Over the next 3 years though, those signing bonuses will represent cap allocation that isn't cash spent. It will require them to spend cash in excess of the cap to balance it out.

It gets lost because they were re-signings/extensions, but in order to get to the cash spending they had this year (100% of cap), they had to sign arguably the best FA OL (Onwenu), arguably the best FA safety (Dugger), give out one of the biggest DT contracts ever to Barmore, sign quality starting caliber defensive players like Tavai/Godchaux/Peppers/Jennings. Signing all of those guys only got them to 100% of the cap. They're going to have to keep spending close to 90% of the cap over the next 3 years which by default means they'll need to either sign a lot of guys like they did this year and/or consolidate with some bigger signings. By default that's going to come from outside guys to some extent.

You keep taking statements people are making about this point in time and projecting over the long haul. People aren't saying it never makes sense to spend. People are saying they understand a terrible team not bothering to sign middling players to play over rookies and young guys.

You keep saying you don't see the plan. It's very obvious to everyone else that the "plan" seems to be to bottom out this year, see which young guys stick and try to move forward over the next few years once you hopefully have some more of your foundation in place. But you've out of nowhere made up this narrative that Kraft wants to pocket $50M every year and not spend up to the cap despite them being a cap to cash team over the last 3 decades.

 

[Huckleberry1]

I think they are tanking.
Patriots version of “the process” used by sixers

Evidence:

1. Signing Jacoby Brissett
2. Not addressing OL adequately in draft or free agency
3. Trading Judon
4. Drafting Maye who they know will take years to develop
5. Resigning their own average free agents to multiyear contracts
6. Hiring the most inexperienced head coach and DC in the league

I agree with the strategy. They desperately need infusion of blue chip talent over several years and top 5 picks is surest way to do this.

The attempt to sign Ridley or Aiyuk would not have moved the neeedle

Failure to prioritize OL rebuild is surest sign of tank

This is like taking a dump, and then spraying some perfume on it.

 

[Ring 6]

Cash spending is higher than cap dollars this year because of the signing bonuses that are cash spent but not counted against the cap. Over the next 3 years though, those signing bonuses will represent cap allocation that isn't cash spent. It will require them to spend cash in excess of the cap to balance it out.

It gets lost because they were re-signings/extensions, but in order to get to the cash spending they had this year (100% of cap), they had to sign arguably the best FA OL (Onwenu), arguably the best FA safety (Dugger), give out one of the biggest DT contracts ever to Barmore, sign quality starting caliber defensive players like Tavai/Godchaux/Peppers/Jennings. Signing all of those guys only got them to 100% of the cap. They're going to have to keep spending close to 90% of the cap over the next 3 years which by default means they'll need to either sign a lot of guys like they did this year and/or consolidate with some bigger signings. By default that's going to come from outside guys to some extent.

You keep taking statements people are making about this point in time and projecting over the long haul. People aren't saying it never makes sense to spend. People are saying they understand a terrible team not bothering to sign middling players to play over rookies and young guys.

You keep saying you don't see the plan. It's very obvious to everyone else that the "plan" seems to be to bottom out this year, see which young guys stick and try to move forward over the next few years once you hopefully have some more of your foundation in place. But you've out of nowhere made up this narrative that Kraft wants to pocket $50M every year and not spend up to the cap despite them being a cap to cash team over the last 3 decades.

They have to spend about $216 mill a year in cash to meet the minimum. They can do the spending 50,000,000 under the cap in cap dollars each year.

I realize people aren’t saying it never makes sense to spend, that is my point. If yo say it makes no sense to spend now you are IN EFFECT saying it never makes sense. Why would execute be different? This years free agency was not different then every other year.

I don’t see the plan, but I do see them tanking. How can not signing good players who make you better be a plan? Are you telling me they threw away a season to gain a few draft slots?
I didn’t make anything up. Kraft pocketed $50,000,000. That’s a fact.
And for the last 3 decades someone was figuring out how to turn a small cash budget into good cap management, but we have never been a big spending team. Again, cap dollars are not equal to spending. And the players you get for X cap dollars will be very different based upon cash spending and structure. We have always been handicapped that way. People thought belichick was frugal. Turns out he was maxing out a small budget.

 

[Pats2000]

Its a tank as part of the rebuild.
There have been teams who have rebuilt without hitting rock bottom

eg. steelers, eagles

They also weren't left with absolute dog **** on offense. BB offensive drafting really left the team in a hole. He couldn't hit on a #1 WR to save his life or his job or his GOAT QB