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NFL QB Rankings (looking toward 2023)


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Evans drop was bad, but I saw highlights of Brady throwing the ball numerous times into the dirt. He doesn't look all-in right now. I'm guessing that when he un-retired, he was expecting Gronk to come back with him. As soon as he found out Gronk was retiring, the light went out
I watched a bit of the TB game and it seemed his receivers were not getting a heck of a lot of separation. His line was pretty sketchy pass-blocking even though he was only sacked once. Seemed rushed out there. Their run game is not good. Zero respect for it.
 
I watched a bit of the TB game and it seemed his receivers were not getting a heck of a lot of separation. His line was pretty sketchy pass-blocking even though he was only sacked once. Seemed rushed out there. Their run game is not good. Zero respect for it.

In my view, and it's not a very popular one, Brady has been declining since his MVP season in 2017. He rebounded in 2020 and 2021 because his receivers propped him up and the vast majority of his touchdown passes/yards were against teams with poor records (I analyzed the data myself), but Brady in 2017 taking his team to the SB with Gronk, Hogan and Cooks was spectacular. He just doesn't have that ability any more. And Brady's subpar 2022 season proves is that coaching matters.
 
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In my view, and it's not a very popular one, Brady has been declining since his MVP season in 2017. He rebounded in 2020 and 2021 because his receivers propped him up and the vast majority of his touchdown passes/yards were against teams with poor records (I analyzed the data myself), but Brady in 2017 taking his team to the SB with Gronk, Hogan and Cooks was spectacular. He just doesn't have that ability any more. And Brady's subpar 2022 season proves is that coaching matters.
I'm sure he has been declining but aside from Evans I don't think he has much to work with this year.
 
Here's an updated list of QB Rankings

Considering prior performance (rolling two-year period) with greater weight on recent games and projections for future production (stats, wins, importance to team).

01. Patrick Mahomes
02. Josh Allen
03. Joe Burrow
04. Lamar Jackson
05. Jalen Hurts
06. Justin Herbert
07. Tua Tagovailoa
08. Tom Brady
09. Geno Smith
10. Aaron Rodgers
11. Kirk Cousins
12. Jimmy Garoppolo
13. Kyler Murray
14. Matthew Stafford
15. Dak Prescott
16. Justin Fields
17. Andy Dalton
18. Russell Wilson
19. Derek Carr
20. Jared Goff
21. Bailey Zappe
22. Ryan Tannehill
23. Daniel Jones
24. Marcus Mariota
25. Trevor Lawrence
26. Davis Mills
27. Matt Ryan
28. Mac Jones
29. Jacoby Brissett
30. Baker Mayfield
31. Zach Wilson
32. Kenny Pickett
33. P.J. Walker
34. Sam Ehlinger
35. Malik Willis

Deshaun Watson will become eligible once he's off suspension.
 
Here's an updated list of QB Rankings

Considering prior performance (rolling two-year period) with greater weight on recent games and projections for future production (stats, wins, importance to team).
Hope you're not counting Zappe's games for Western Kentucky against stiffs now working the tills at Walmart. If you're just counting NFL, it seems a reach to have him over Lawrence, who actually started the season ok.
 
Cousins and Geno should be ahead of Brady
 
Here's an updated list of QB Rankings

Considering prior performance (rolling two-year period) with greater weight on recent games and projections for future production (stats, wins, importance to team).

01. Patrick Mahomes
02. Josh Allen
03. Joe Burrow
04. Lamar Jackson
05. Jalen Hurts
06. Justin Herbert
07. Tua Tagovailoa
08. Tom Brady
09. Geno Smith
10. Aaron Rodgers
11. Kirk Cousins
12. Jimmy Garoppolo
13. Kyler Murray
14. Matthew Stafford
15. Dak Prescott
16. Justin Fields
17. Andy Dalton
18. Russell Wilson
19. Derek Carr
20. Jared Goff
21. Bailey Zappe
22. Ryan Tannehill
23. Daniel Jones
24. Marcus Mariota
25. Trevor Lawrence
26. Davis Mills
27. Matt Ryan
28. Mac Jones
29. Jacoby Brissett
30. Baker Mayfield
31. Zach Wilson
32. Kenny Pickett
33. P.J. Walker
34. Sam Ehlinger
35. Malik Willis

Deshaun Watson will become eligible once he's off suspension.
Tua want to Bamba he likes to chill with the Big Boys.:)
 
In my view, and it's not a very popular one, Brady has been declining since his MVP season in 2017. He rebounded in 2020 and 2021 because his receivers propped him up and the vast majority of his touchdown passes/yards were against teams with poor records (I analyzed the data myself), but Brady in 2017 taking his team to the SB with Gronk, Hogan and Cooks was spectacular. He just doesn't have that ability any more. And Brady's subpar 2022 season proves is that coaching matters.
You forgot to mention winning the Big one without BB.:)
 
As I recall in some of the recent quarterback discussion topics there are a lot of Lamar Jackson deniers and nonbelievers here. He currently leads all quarterbacks in rushing yards by a mile and is 6th in the NFL overall. Leads the NFL in passing TDs, TD% and passer rating. Looks a lot like himself from his MVP season. It's only week 4 but there's no reason to believe he'll slow down much.

My updated top 10 QB rankings (previous ranking):

01. Josh Allen (1)
02. Patrick Mahomes (2)
03. Lamar Jackson (10)
04. Justin Herbert (5)
05. Tom Brady (3)
06. Aaron Rodgers (4)
07. Deshaun Watson (6)
08. Joe Burrow (7)
09. Jalen Hurts (21)
10. Tua Tagovailoa (27)

Dropping out of the top 10: Russell Wilson (8) and Kyler Murray (9)
Lamar Jackson is a stud. BB made a huge mistake passing on him. Especially after he shipped out Garappolo for a 2nd round pick and a bag of chips. But BB's ineffective drafting over the past decade has been well documented.

This year's new problem arises from BB's baffling decision not to hire a real OC after McDaniels left and instead put a decade long defensive coach, Matt Patricia, in charge of our play calls. He followed this head scratching move by hiring Joe Judge, known as the QB Ruiner, for how badly he messed up Daniel Jones in New York, as another act of self-sabotage.

It's bad enough that Mac Jones currently doesn't have a lot of arm strength or pocket presence, but let's compound that by giving him the worst coaching situation possible, and oh yeah let's change up the offensive system too, because we really needed to score LESS points this year!
 
Secretly rooting for Tua, Jackson and Hurts if we don't pull out a miracle. Everyone gave up or didn't even consider them to begin with. And each has either won or being considered for an MVP (maybe not Tua if im being honest but hes making it work when many said he couldn't).
 
Secretly rooting for Tua, Jackson and Hurts if we don't pull out a miracle. Everyone gave up or didn't even consider them to begin with. And each has either won or being considered for an MVP (maybe not Tua if im being honest but hes making it work when many said he couldn't).
Jackson has been a stud since entering the league. And he's just continued to prove why it was a mistake to pass on him.

What surprises me more is Jalen Hurts who was taken in the 2nd round of the 2020 draft. He has really shown off his athleticism and led the Eagles atop the NFC East. When he first came out his rookie year, Hurts showed off flashes of talent that made me say, why does this guy remind me of Michael Vick?

In year two Jalen Hurts has really made that sophomore leap that you want to see from your young QB. Mac Jones is a sharp contrast with his regression in year two. It makes you wonder what he could be right now if he had been kept in the right situation. Is he no longer the right QB for the New England Patriots? Should Bailey Zappe now get the opportunity to shine instead?
 
Hope you're not counting Zappe's games for Western Kentucky against stiffs now working the tills at Walmart. If you're just counting NFL, it seems a reach to have him over Lawrence, who actually started the season ok.
Lawrence was very good to start the season but then he starting playing losing football again. Jacksonville probably could have beaten Philadelphia had Lawrence not turned the ball over 5 times. He also was responsible for the losses to Houston and Denver. Overall he's still a huge disappointment for an overall #1 draft pick. Fields is now emerging as the best of that draft class.

Cousins and Geno should be ahead of Brady
If you're just considering 2022 then Geno over Brady. Cousins, no. He's having his worst season in a Vikings uniform.
 
Jackson's stock is going up, but is about to get screwed over by the Ravens with the Franchise Tag. I've asked this question before and got crickets, but I was curious if there was a rule in the CBA that didn't allow rookies to ask for the removal of any tags when signing their initial contract? From what I've found out, rookies can negotiate the removal of tags, but haven't. This is quite shocking Agents don't ask/get this for their clients. Rookies need to wake up and demand this to be removed.

Now, obviously there's only a certain amount of rookies that can get away with his such as 1st and 2nd round picks. After that, their leverage isn't as high.
 
Here's an updated list of QB Rankings

Considering prior performance (rolling two-year period) with greater weight on recent games and projections for future production (stats, wins, importance to team).

01. Patrick Mahomes
02. Josh Allen
03. Joe Burrow
04. Jalen Hurts
05. Lamar Jackson
06. Justin Herbert
07. Tua Tagovailoa
08. Tom Brady
09. Geno Smith
10. Aaron Rodgers
11. Jimmy Garoppolo
12. Dak Prescott
13. Justin Fields
14. Derek Carr
15. Deshaun Watson
16. Trevor Lawrence
17. Jared Goff
18. Kirk Cousins
19. Kyler Murray
20. Matthew Stafford
21. Andy Dalton
22. Daniel Jones
23. Taylor Heinicke
24. Ryan Tannehill
25. Marcus Mariota
26. Russell Wilson
27. Jacoby Brissett
28. Mac Jones
29. Davis Mills
30. Mike White
31. Kenny Pickett
32. Matt Ryan
33. Zach Wilson

Note: Carolina currently does not have a QB who qualifies for the list
 
Jackson's stock is going up, but is about to get screwed over by the Ravens with the Franchise Tag. I've asked this question before and got crickets, but I was curious if there was a rule in the CBA that didn't allow rookies to ask for the removal of any tags when signing their initial contract? From what I've found out, rookies can negotiate the removal of tags, but haven't. This is quite shocking Agents don't ask/get this for their clients. Rookies need to wake up and demand this to be removed.

Now, obviously there's only a certain amount of rookies that can get away with his such as 1st and 2nd round picks. After that, their leverage isn't as high.
Why would a team agree to it? With the money mostly set by slotting, there's very little for players to negotiate with to get the tag removed.
 
Put on your armchair GM hat for a minute.

Anyone saying they’d take Lamar Jackson over Justin Herbert, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott, Deshaun Watson or Trevor Lawrence… you should be fired instantly.

I'd take the potential of Mac Jones, Davis Mills, Mike White, Kenny Pickett, Bailey Zappe and Kyler Murray over LJ without batting an eyelash.

Why hasn’t Jackson been paid yet? Hell Kyler got his, and he wasn’t going to be a free agent for another season.

Geno Smith wasn’t on this list to start the season, he was an unquestioned “bust.” Now he’s near the top, just below Brady. How does a QB ranking list account for team play around them?

Up until this past weekend Josh Allen led the entire NFL in interceptions, his team is 9-3 because of the team around him…. if we’re being honest.

Is Tua Tagovailoa that good, or does he now have an innovative smart coach scheming for him along with Tyreek and Waddle? I'd still take him over LJ, even though Tua's one injury away from retirement.

Justin Fields is Lamar lite, but like Jalen Hurts showed in college that he could be accurate as a pure passer when called upon. Has Lamar been able to pass from the pocket against the best defenses in the NFL?

No, is the answer. If never winning a ring is assured, why would he be on the list at all… never mind at the top? Oh yeah, because the Pats were supposed to draft him… even though he’ll never win a ring… ever.

Who would I take over Lamar, not all the guys on this list… but Lamar wouldn’t even be on my list.

My goal as a lazy boy recliner GM would be to win rings, not sell tickets, jerseys and have a good QB on video games. Passing accurately is the job, being able to pass well against the best of the best defenses in the playoffs is a requirement… that’s not Lamar.
 
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Anyone saying they’d take Lamar Jackson over Justin Herbert, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott, Deshaun Watson or Trevor Lawrence… you should be fired instantly.
Our assessments of Lamar clearly aren't the same. I love his potential and overall athleticism, ability to extend plays, scramble, and designed runs. At his best he's an MVP caliber player. He hasn't had great offensive talent around him either. He was spectacular to start this season, and although his numbers have come down, he's been relatively mistake free. Now unfortunately he's injured and will miss an undetermined amount of time. Eventually we'll see what he does in the postseason, which he'll enter with Mahomes, Allen and Burrow all expected to do more, so Lamar will have a real opportunity to make a statement.

As to the bit about which quarterback I would take, it depends on if it's for a single game, a single season, or as a franchise quarterback moving forward. The context changes all of my answers.

I'd take the potential of Mac Jones, Davis Mills, Mike White, Kenny Pickett, Bailey Zappe and Kyler Murray over LJ without batting an eyelash.
Ok, I'm not agreeing with this for sure. With all of the information I have as of today, I'll take Lamar over all of those quarterbacks. Of those quarterbacks, aside from Lamar, I would say Murray clearly has the most potential. Pickett's numbers are really bad but by the eyeball test he seems to have good potential. Zappe's an interesting case because he overperformed expectations and probably is worth another look... which for the long term will only happen if Mac gets seriously injured or traded.

Geno Smith wasn’t on this list to start the season, he was an unquestioned “bust.” Now he’s near the top, just below Brady. How does a QB ranking list account for team play around them?
Geno has to be given some credit for his own success this season. He's the comeback player of the year. Pete Carroll is a good head coach too. I know that's difficult for some to admit but his track record has become undeniable. We have to reassess Russell Wilson to some extent now as well. Perhaps he was contributing to Seattle's poor record in 2021 more than was originally thought. He's looked completed washed up in Denver and it's week 14 of the season. I like Lockett and Metcalf, and their running game has a solid Y/A, but their defense isn't very good and they're not guaranteed to make the postseason. Overall good team, with a good head coach, and a quarterback who's having an unexpectedly excellent season.

Up until this past weekend Josh Allen led the entire NFL in interceptions, his team is 9-3 because of the team around him…. if we’re being honest.
Allen's ceiling is almost unstoppable but he's been too inconsistent. With the respective remaining schedules, Buffalo will be fortunate to hold onto the #1 seed. If Allen plays to his potential then they could run the table. He's far from their biggest concern. Their defense on the other hand is leaking oil with the injuries, and with Miller now out for the remainder of the season, the defense isn't going to be as good as originally thought. So that's their main issue... working around the significant injuries on defense.

All that said, Burrow is closing in on the #2 spot quickly. And if Hurts keeps up his pace then he'll have to be considered for leapfrogging Allen too.

Is Tua Tagovailoa that good, or does he now have an innovative smart coach scheming for him along with Tyreek and Waddle? I'd still take him over LJ, even though Tua's one injury away from retirement.
My feeling is Tua was a bit underrated heading into the season and now it's going a little bit the other way because he's having a great season with a very strong supporting cast and a new head coach who has caught on really fast. But a healthy Lamar in that Miami offense would be next level impressive.

Justin Fields is Lamar lite, but like Jalen Hurts showed in college that he could be accurate as a pure passer when called upon. Has Lamar been able to pass from the pocket against the best defenses in the NFL?
Fields, like Lawrence, has shown the potential that got them drafted in the 1st round. Fields has had a slightly better season as a passer but he's really taken off with his running game. He has one of the worst supporting casts in the NFL so I'd like to see what he looks like with some legitimate WRs.

No, is the answer. If never winning a ring is assured, why would he be on the list at all… never mind at the top? Oh yeah, because the Pats were supposed to draft him… even though he’ll never win a ring… ever.

Who would I take over Lamar, not all the guys on this list… but Lamar wouldn’t even be on my list.

My goal as a lazy boy recliner GM would be to win rings, not sell tickets, jerseys and have a good QB on video games. Passing accurately is the job, being able to pass well against the best of the best defenses in the playoffs is a requirement… that’s not Lamar.
Well, obviously I think you're being harsh. Again, we'll have more data by the end of the season. We'll see how Lamar fairs in a loaded AFC postseason. I'd feel better about his chances if the team had surrounded him with any WRs at all. Andrews is a nice TE but they've got next to nothing at WR. And their pass defense is bad, which isn't ideal when you're facing Mahomes, Allen or Burrow.
 


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