Grade the Patriots 2021 Free Agency

[BobDigital]

So how do you quantify value ?

You keep coming back to this 1000 yards a year for whatever reason. You do realize that this is just a function of targets though right ?

When you normalize that number to be actually comparable by looking at yards per target then in all of his years with Rivers -- where he was used less around the line and was able to run longer developing routes -- he was bouncing around the magical 9.0 Y/T which is where you enter elite receiving TE territory (i.e. Kelce has 9.2 through his career, Waller is at 9.0 looking only at his more productive LV years, Gronk due to his GOAT status a 9.7).

Now what makes this even more complicated -- since we are talking actual TEs that can block -- is that a true TE is also generating value on plays where we are not even passing the ball or when the ball goes to someone else because having Smith/Henry on the field allowed to create a mismatch against e.g. a LB. Or when his help on a block against an elite pass rusher is exactly that second time our QB needed to find Agholor deep. Which in another universe might have been a strip sack. And those are the most obvious examples..

I don't really see how you quantify anything like that in your argument by appealing to the notion that he "didn't yet hit 1000 yards".

Finally, I would be very interested how you'd even come up with your numbers ?

How do I quantify value? Very difficultly, with various ifs, buts and exceptions. Just like everyone else. There is no sure fire way to assign the exact correct value to any player. For instance, as you pointing out, there are targets to consider. Not to mention big plays, crunch time and ability to succeed against tough competition.

Yes 1,000 yards is a solid number. It isn't just a function of targets. While it's true any player in the NFL can get 1,000 yards if he gets enough targets, no team will just keep throwing too a guy who isn't producing well over and over again until he has 1,000 yards. Targets is a reflection of production, just as production is a reflection of targets. If you win your match up often, or create big plays often, more targets will naturally go your way. If you don't do either often, they won't.

Agholor isn't getting enough targets to get 1,000 yards because he isn't doing enough to 'earn' getting those targets.

Then again, some guys get targetted less, because some games they are double team and that lowers their production. For instance Evans only got 1 officail target and 1 catch for 31 yards in the super bowl. That doesn't mean he didn't play a game good. He absorbed a lot of double teams and drew some penalties. So clearly you can't just look at stats or total figures, particularly in a single game. That said, over the course of a season they tend to add up to show a fairly reliable picture.

It's also true that in some places where there are less good players a player will get more Targets. Diggs for instance led the NFL in yards, but also led in targets. Is Diggs a good WR? Yes. Was he the best WR in the NFL last year? I don't think so. But because he was on Buffalo where there weren't a bunch of top tier weapons (the number 2 was a slot WR who isn't really a 'big play' guy in Beasley). Instead of on a team like the Bucs that is was loaded with top weapons last years, he got more chances and looks. That isn't to say he isn't a elite #1 WR, but there are other factors we must consider.

The reason i'm being a stickler for Agholor and I like the 1,000 yard conversation peice, is because he never hit it once in his career. It wasn't like he was on a loaded team last year. Why didn't he get open more? It's worth asking. Never once in his career has he lead his team in yards or TDs. He has never been the most talented or impactful offensive player on his team from a statistical stand point. And his targets reflect that.

But maybe I'm wrong and he will have a huge impact here. We will see. I'll admit it if I'm wrong about him when the time comes.

 

[RIpats88]

This is nonsense. How do you ignore money when evaluating free agency signings. Some of these could just as easily be viewed as busts if FAs don't play to the "potential" the deals are clearly based on.

The total amount spent isn't the issue since it was available. Could the team not use another $8 to $10M this year in overpays? Could better players have been signed for the same contract amounts or a little more?

And arguing that we weren't "in the room" or criticizing "after the fact" is meaningless when that is the entire purpose of evaluating the GM's performance during FA.

Bill did a good job in addressing the total lack of talent in many areas of the roster. Re-signing Andrews and bringing back KVN were excellent decisions, both at great value. I'm not ready to grade this because FAcy isn't over yet, but so far I'd say it's in the B- level.

Read the rest of my post. This is not a normal free agency year.

 

[RIpats88]

I have to admit, this is probably the best and most ballsy thing Bill did as a GM:

1. He knew there weren't any QBs available in FAcy that would significantly move the needle and would cost more;
2. The QBs that could move the needle had jobs and the one (JG) he "apparently" wanted to get wasn't available either;
3. He concluded that bringing Cam back was the best value, gave him a slight raise, and it freed up $$ to go after players to fill up all the holes in the roster;
4. He didn't care about the blowback of this decision by the media or the hysterical sissies at Patsfan.com

For that, I'm revising my grade from B- to B+

Agreed. Whomever we signed this year isn't more than a 1 year bridge (assuming they draft a rookie). The difference between cams money and say $10million Fitzpatrick got is another piece that could improve the roster

 

[JMC00]

 

[venecol]

View attachment 31478

What do the % change numbers mean? It can't be wins, 7% of 7 wins is 0.5 wins which doesn't make sense either. 7% of 16 is only 1 win. I don't get it.

 

[Biffins]

View attachment 31478

Looks like we spent the most money.

 

[Biffins]

People need to stop looking at the money when grading these signings. The cap NEVER drops and it did this year due to a once in a century pandemic. So, you can expect the cap to go up at least $20million next year. not to mention the TV deals coming which are projected to skyrocket the cap.

What look like "overpays" now really may look like bargains in a couple years or even a year from now if the cap goes up and more teams have money to spend. Also, when you look at the actual deals, the cap hits are reasonable and honestly who cares about money that is Bob Krafts and not ours.

Except when it's a 2 year or 3 year contract then who cares what cap will be 4-5 years down the road.

It's not like the Chiefs who signed Mahomes for 12 years and can keep rolling it to keep cap-hit low and can benefit from salary cap going up.

Our FA contracts are just 2-4 years, not really super long term.

 

[Biffins]

After careful consideration now that the excitement has faded... I give it a C+. And I can tell you why is 2 words. Questionable contracts.

I know that on day 1 you pay a premium. Some of the contracts I don't mind, others are not so great. Let's go through each major contract with it's own grade.

Hunter Henry D+ I'm not a fan of this contract. He's getting 12.5M/yr with no real wiggle room. To put it into perspective that is about 5/6th of what guys like Kittle and Kelce make. Does he have 83% of their production? No. Not even in his best year was he even close to 1,000 yards. We're paying a good player like he is almost great. And there is no way to get out of the contract. Even if the cap goes up after this year it will be hard to justify this contract.

Jonnu Smith C- Everything that can be said about Henry can be said about Jonnu with very few differences. One being that assuming we cut him after the 3rd year a dead cap hit happens in year 4, which will allow them to spread it out a little. Still not a fan of that though.

Nelson Agholor C- Locked in for 2 years with a WR that honestly isn't all that good. He's a decent #2, but that's all For a guy who is likely to get you around 800 yards, they are paying a lot. He is currently the 20th highest paid WR in the NFL. And that is over 2 years, so no time for the cap rising to catch up with it.

There other contracts are better, but these ones seem questionable for the price tag.

Be careful there. These are heretical thoughts! I posted a thread asking if we overpaid and it got locked already.

 

[BobDigital]

View attachment 31478

How is KC a better team now than before free agency. I need that explained to me. They signed Thuney, but have yet to address C, RT and LT (Unless You count going with their backup RT again). I don't see how it makes any sense.

 

[catent]

Be careful there. These are heretical thoughts! I posted a thread asking if we overpaid and it got locked already.

You posted a thread and proceeded to spam YouTube videos of talk-show analysts discussing the Patriots' free-agent moves, captioned with your own misleading and biased spin.

Your thread wasn't "asking" anything; you had no interest in critical thought or discussion happening when you posted that thread. You wanted to continue to push your deeply personal, anti-Belichick schtick in as loud and attention-seeking a manner as possible.

There are other posters here who have made remarks critical of Belichick and their threads/posts have not been removed. That should help you realize that the reason your thread was locked was not because you were critical of Belichick -- your thread was locked because of the way you went about it, and the repetitive, hackneyed nature of your posts.

 

[RIpats88]

Except when it's a 2 year or 3 year contract then who cares what cap will be 4-5 years down the road.

It's not like the Chiefs who signed Mahomes for 12 years and can keep rolling it to keep cap-hit low and can benefit from salary cap going up.

Our FA contracts are just 2-4 years, not really super long term.

well, if they are short deals then we should care even less because we aren't tied to anyone long term. You at that point should still grade based on the talent and where they fit within the team.

If in your eyes they are either short deals, or the cap is going to skyrocket(it is even without the tv deals) then who cares what Kraft paid? we still have near $30million in cap space this year.

 

[Biffins]

You posted a thread and proceeded to spam YouTube videos of talk-show analysts discussing the Patriots' free-agent moves, captioned with your own misleading and biased spin.

Your thread wasn't "asking" anything; you had no interest in critical thought or discussion happening when you posted that thread. You wanted to continue to push your deeply personal, anti-Belichick schtick in as loud and attention-seeking a manner as possible.

There are other posters here who have made remarks critical of Belichick and their threads/posts have not been removed. That should help you realize that the reason your thread was locked was not because you were critical of Belichick -- your thread was locked because of the way you went about it, and the repetitive, hackneyed nature of your posts.

If you read the first post of the thread it asked like 10 different things. Questions too uncomfortable to ponder perhaps.

Also, I didn't put my "spin" on any video or link. Clearly you didn't watch them. Maybe it's that hard to imagine that everyone is finding BB's moves generally underwhelming. If you don't care about the opinions of the media idiots, then why be offended.

The reason my thread was locked, is because some BB uberfan mod has a beef to pick with me and is tracking me and locking/banning anything I post that is critical of his prophet.

 

[BTTA]

Are we making this harder than it deserves?

• from horrific TE group to very good TE group
• from good OL to a little better OL
• from horrific edge and LB group to very good edge and LB group
• from horrific WR group to average WR group
• from bad DL against the run to at least average, if not good
• no change in QB yet

DB is still very good at this point and RB needs depth.

The contracts are focused into the 2nd and 3rd years, when there should be far more $$ around.

 

[50-yard-line]

If you read the first post of the thread it asked like 10 different things. Questions too uncomfortable to ponder perhaps.

Also, I didn't put my "spin" on any video or link. Clearly you didn't watch them. Maybe it's that hard to imagine that everyone is finding BB's moves generally underwhelming. If you don't care about the opinions of the media idiots, then why be offended.

The reason my thread was locked, is because some BB uberfan mod has a beef to pick with me and is tracking me and locking/banning anything I post that is critical of his prophet.

Hahaha, wow.

"Questions too uncomfortable to ponder"? Dude, get over yourself.

And how do you know where whomever it was that shut the thread down goes to get his religious or astrological or palm or tarot information?

 

[venecol]

From PFF article on most overrated and underrated free agent signings. They list the following 6 underrated: J. Johnson III (CLE), T. Hill (CLE), M. Feiler (LAC), K. Zeitler (BAL), M. Hilton (CIN), C. Davis (NYJ).

These are the 6 overrated: B. Dupree (TEN), N. Agholor (NE), L. Floyd (LAR), R. Jenkins (JAC), T. Hendrickson (CIN), K. Drake (LV).

The Agholor deal: 2-years, $22M (up to $26M; $16M guaranteed)

"Agholor is being paid under the assumption that he can replicate his 2020 production and then some. The Raiders used him in a far different manner than the Eagles, who drafted him in the first round in 2015. Agholor went from predominantly residing in the slot to the outside, where he saw deep crossers and vertical shots in Jon Gruden's offense. He was a home run threat for Vegas who consistently ran hot and cold. Drops plagued the speedster (15% drop rate ranked sixth-to-last), and while he racked up 21 receptions of 15-plus yards, 13 of them came in four contests.

Even assuming New England can extract the better end of that boom-or-bust play in 2021, Agholor is overpaid relative to his counterparts. He ranked just 45th among 99 qualifiers in receiving grade in 2020 despite it being easily his most productive NFL season. We've seen enough from him to know what kind of receiver he is; in the five years prior to 2020, he ranked 73rd among 74 qualifying wide receivers in receiving grade.

This was one of several head-scratching signings by the Patriots early in free agency."

Underrated, overrated NFL free-agent signings for 2021: How the Browns improved, and which teams got the best value | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | PFF

PFF looks at each position and highlights the most overrated and underrated free-agency signings so far. Cleveland's move for John Johnson III and Troy Hill comes out on top, while the Bengals' decision to sign Trey Hendrickson comes under scrutiny.

www.pff.com

I have yet to see one positive take on the Agholor signing which is confusing given all of the "good" to "very good" WRs that were available. Is he an improvement? Yes, but why him?

 

[Bill Lee]

 

[Bill Lee]

 

[Bill Lee]

Hey! Put some respect on Alex Smith's name!

 

[yukon cornelius]

From PFF article on most overrated and underrated free agent signings. They list the following 6 underrated: J. Johnson III (CLE), T. Hill (CLE), M. Feiler (LAC), K. Zeitler (BAL), M. Hilton (CIN), C. Davis (NYJ).

These are the 6 overrated: B. Dupree (TEN), N. Agholor (NE), L. Floyd (LAR), R. Jenkins (JAC), T. Hendrickson (CIN), K. Drake (LV).

The Agholor deal: 2-years, $22M (up to $26M; $16M guaranteed)

"Agholor is being paid under the assumption that he can replicate his 2020 production and then some. The Raiders used him in a far different manner than the Eagles, who drafted him in the first round in 2015. Agholor went from predominantly residing in the slot to the outside, where he saw deep crossers and vertical shots in Jon Gruden's offense. He was a home run threat for Vegas who consistently ran hot and cold. Drops plagued the speedster (15% drop rate ranked sixth-to-last), and while he racked up 21 receptions of 15-plus yards, 13 of them came in four contests.

Even assuming New England can extract the better end of that boom-or-bust play in 2021, Agholor is overpaid relative to his counterparts. He ranked just 45th among 99 qualifiers in receiving grade in 2020 despite it being easily his most productive NFL season. We've seen enough from him to know what kind of receiver he is; in the five years prior to 2020, he ranked 73rd among 74 qualifying wide receivers in receiving grade.

This was one of several head-scratching signings by the Patriots early in free agency."

Underrated, overrated NFL free-agent signings for 2021: How the Browns improved, and which teams got the best value | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | PFF

PFF looks at each position and highlights the most overrated and underrated free-agency signings so far. Cleveland's move for John Johnson III and Troy Hill comes out on top, while the Bengals' decision to sign Trey Hendrickson comes under scrutiny.

www.pff.com

I have yet to see one positive take on the Agholor signing which is confusing given all of the "good" to "very good" WRs that were available. Is he an improvement? Yes, but why him?

the big problem is in your first line "from the PFF article"

PFF operates on the bold assumption that their analytics are worth a damn......

they got agholar on a 7 mil 2021 cap hit.......that's lower than any of the top half a dozen signings by a fair amount

he does what they need him to do.....and he fit their price structure

cap hit goes up a fair amount next year, but so does the cap......they filled a need this year at a relatively low cost, he fills a distinct need, and is a fit in the offense they are presumed to be running


sometimes there's "best" and sometimes there's "best fit" - agholor fills multiple "needs" on this team right now.......he gives you that X receiver deep threat, and he filled that need while maintaining maximum cap flexibility this year - they got the guy that filled a need and did it under terms that worked.......so right now it's a solid deal, and we'll see how it pans out on the field

reading his draft profile coming out of college, he's a good fit 2015 NFL Draft Scouting Report: Nelson Agholor

and he fits the team system How has Eagles’ Nelson Agholor become an ‘unsung hero’ of the offense? Mike Groh weighs in

JuJu was never coming here, and for that we should be thankful

 

[Bill Lee]

sometimes there's "best" and sometimes there's "best fit" - agholor fills multiple "needs" on this team right now.......he gives you that X receiver deep threat, and he filled that need while maintaining maximum cap flexibility this year - they got the guy that filled a need and did it under terms that worked.......so right now it's a solid deal, and we'll see how it pans out on the field

reading his draft profile coming out of college, he's a good fit 2015 NFL Draft Scouting Report: Nelson Agholor

and he fits the team system How has Eagles’ Nelson Agholor become an ‘unsung hero’ of the offense? Mike Groh weighs in

JuJu was never coming here, and for that we should be thankful

He also has a lot of flexibility. He showed in LV he can do the X deep field stuff, showed in PHL that he can do the slot stuff. Bill values that more than "pure WR1" stuff. He can both challenge the defense and keep the chains moving.