Grade the Patriots 2021 Free Agency

[GaryfromTO]

at the moment I have to grade it a D (but with a caveat) . If they address the QB situation, then it quickly goes to an A.

 

[Uptown]

What exactly makes Denver attractive?

To keep it strictly football, their offense. Acquire some quality OL & get a backup RB. Everything else is pretty much set. Also, their D isn’t too shabby either. They really just need a NT/DT, Miller to return to form after injury & some safety depth. They just signed CB Kyle Fuller (who knows Fangio’s defense), which makes them even stronger. Plus, the seemingly added advantage of Denver’s home field (thin air). I totally get why DEN is an attractive option. What the hell are you guys watching?

 

[luuked]

After careful consideration now that the excitement has faded... I give it a C+. And I can tell you why is 2 words. Questionable contracts.

I know that on day 1 you pay a premium. Some of the contracts I don't mind, others are not so great. Let's go through each major contract with it's own grade.

Hunter Henry D+ I'm not a fan of this contract. He's getting 12.5M/yr with no real wiggle room. To put it into perspective that is about 5/6th of what guys like Kittle and Kelce make. Does he have 83% of their production? No. Not even in his best year was he even close to 1,000 yards. We're paying a good player like he is almost great. And there is no way to get out of the contract. Even if the cap goes up after this year it will be hard to justify this contract.

Jonnu Smith C- Everything that can be said about Henry can be said about Juden with very few differences. One being that assuming we cut him after the 3rd year a dead cap hit happens in year 4, which will allow them to spread it out a little. Still not a fan of that though.

Nelson Agholor C- Locked in for 2 years with a WR that honestly isn't all that good. He's a decent #2, but that's all For a guy who is likely to get you around 800 yards, they are paying a lot. He is currently the 20th highest paid WR in the NFL. And that is over 2 years, so no time for the cap rising to catch up with it.

There other contracts are better, but these ones seem questionable for the price tag.

This post will look pretty questionable next year when the cap makes a healthy jump up and those contracts will "suddenly" look like good deals.

Did you also give them a C- for signing Gilmore for big money in '17 ?

 

[Ring 6]

Cam - D. The guy’s legs are cooked. All this signals is that we’re going for a QB high. Hopefully that QB replaces Cam in-season.

Smith - B. I’d rate this an A, but they paid more for him than I would have liked.

Godcheaux - A. DT is still a need but it was the 1B biggest need on the roster. The run defense was a massive issue. He will go a long way toward helping.

Anderson - C. Two seasons removed from a career year and cut by the Jets. A ho-hum situational piece.

Bourne - C. Essentially a slot guy trying out for Edelman’s role. Quick in and out of cuts, but a limited route tree.

Agholor - C. Has the speed I was looking for, but drops are a problem and he clearly benefited from defenses having to dedicate a safety deep for Ruggs while doubling Waller in man. There were better options available.

Henry - A. This signing basically means the team can attack the defense out of any personnel package either on the ground or through the air. Most teams would run the ball out of 22 personnel, for example. We won’t have to be one of them.

Judon - A. We badly needed another edge rusher opposite Winovich. The defense should be able to get off the field on 3rd and long pretty often between those two, Hightower being back, and the secondary the team has.

Mills - A. Big for versatility and depth. He can line up at FS, SS, and nickel/dime corner. You need a piece like this in order to slow down teams like KC and Tampa Bay.

Overall/average grade: B.
Best signing: Henry

Fair analysis. Couple of comments.
I think Smith is an A player so if we spent a little more to wrap him up right away im fine with that.
I’d give Anderson a higher grade because he’s a great fit for the system.
I watched a lot of raider games and Ruggs wasn’t taking coverage away from anyone.
You are way over grading cam

 

[Ring 6]

To keep it strictly football, their offense. Acquire some quality OL & get a backup RB. Everything else is pretty much set. Also, their D isn’t too shabby either. They really just need a NT/DT, Miller to return to form after injury & some safety depth. They just signed CB Kyle Fuller (who knows Fangio’s defense), which makes them even stronger. Plus, the seemingly added advantage of Denver’s home field (thin air). I totally get why DEN is an attractive option. What the hell are you guys watching?

Huh? They have no QB, were 28th in scoring.
The defense was 25th.
It’s a very mediocre roster on top of bottom few at QB

 

[Ring 6]

After careful consideration now that the excitement has faded... I give it a C+. And I can tell you why is 2 words. Questionable contracts.

I know that on day 1 you pay a premium. Some of the contracts I don't mind, others are not so great. Let's go through each major contract with it's own grade.

Hunter Henry D+ I'm not a fan of this contract. He's getting 12.5M/yr with no real wiggle room. To put it into perspective that is about 5/6th of what guys like Kittle and Kelce make. Does he have 83% of their production? No. Not even in his best year was he even close to 1,000 yards. We're paying a good player like he is almost great. And there is no way to get out of the contract. Even if the cap goes up after this year it will be hard to justify this contract.

Jonnu Smith C- Everything that can be said about Henry can be said about Juden with very few differences. One being that assuming we cut him after the 3rd year a dead cap hit happens in year 4, which will allow them to spread it out a little. Still not a fan of that though.

Nelson Agholor C- Locked in for 2 years with a WR that honestly isn't all that good. He's a decent #2, but that's all For a guy who is likely to get you around 800 yards, they are paying a lot. He is currently the 20th highest paid WR in the NFL. And that is over 2 years, so no time for the cap rising to catch up with it.

There other contracts are better, but these ones seem questionable for the price tag.

Agholor is the 20th highest paid wr over the length of his contract? Then he is much lower in cap hit at 7 mill and there will be players signed during his contact as well as still this year that are higher.
Agholor was 27th in receiving yards, 6th in yards per target, 2nd in yards per catch, 14th in receiving TDs. There is absolutely no question he was a top 20 WR last year.

If we are building a 2 TE driven offense to accommodate the bozo we currently have playing QB and the rookie who will be taking over, please explain to me which 2 other TEs you would rather have had and how much money you would save, and how you would spend it to improve other areas to overcome the drop off from what we did at TE.

 

[Uptown]

Huh? They have no QB, were 28th in scoring.
The defense was 25th.
It’s a very mediocre roster on top of bottom few at QB

Someone asked why would Watson go to DEN. He’d obviously be the QB, genius. You looked at raw stats in a vacuum & didn’t utilize any context at all. The O & D had MAJOR injuries to their 2 best respective offensive/defensive players (Sutton & Miller). Not to mention, players like DT Mike Purcell, CB Bryce Callahan (top 10 nickel CB), DE/DT Shelby Harris in & out of the lineup etc..Their defense is/was very good when healthy. They have a nice roster. Their essentially a QB away. Know what you’re talking about then you come my way.

 

[Ring 6]

Someone asked why would Watson go to DEN. He’d obviously be the QB, genius. The O & D had MAJOR injuries to their 2 best respective offensive/defensive players (Sutton & Miller). Not to mention, players like DT Mike Purcell, CB Bryce Callahan (top 10 nickel CB), DE/DT Shelby Harris in & out of the lineup etc..Their defense is/was very good when healthy. They have a nice roster. Their essentially a QB away. Know what you’re talking about then you come my way.

Lighten up tough guy.

That’s a weak roster dude. Everyone has injuries. Their coach sucks too.

 

[Uptown]

Lighten up tough guy.

That’s a weak roster dude. Everyone has injuries. Their coach sucks too.

No qualms on my end, bud. We’ll agree to disagree. Just use context when you talk football with me.

 

[BobDigital]

This post will look pretty questionable next year when the cap makes a healthy jump up and those contracts will "suddenly" look like good deals.

Did you also give them a C- for signing Gilmore for big money in '17 ?

Gilmore was a wait and see. He always had the potential to be a top CB and at times looked like it, but he never put it together consistently. It was always a 4 game stretch here or there for him. A few occasional all pro games a season. I was okay with that contract, though I didn't give it an A+. If anyone says they knew they were getting the best CB in the league at the time, they are lying.

 

[BobDigital]

Agholor is the 20th highest paid wr over the length of his contract? Then he is much lower in cap hit at 7 mill and there will be players signed during his contact as well as still this year that are higher.
Agholor was 27th in receiving yards, 6th in yards per target, 2nd in yards per catch, 14th in receiving TDs. There is absolutely no question he was a top 20 WR last year.

If we are building a 2 TE driven offense to accommodate the bozo we currently have playing QB and the rookie who will be taking over, please explain to me which 2 other TEs you would rather have had and how much money you would save, and how you would spend it to improve other areas to overcome the drop off from what we did at TE.

He will be playing out both years of his contract. His cap hit is 7M this year and 15M next year with 10 of that being a dead hit if cut. That averages out to 11M. I'm sure the Patriots hope to extend him if he does well next year and cut his cap, but Agholor will have negotiating power.

So assuming he plays out both years he's getting 11M/yr. A few stats you're forgetting. He was 39th in YPG. (36th among WRs). It was also his best year in his career which spans 6 years. It isn't like he suddenly got better. Things just happened to fall his way that year a little. Are we going to really look at his career year in yards. YPR and TDs and say that's what he is? I don't think we should. He'll probably be closer to 700 yards than 900 yards. Nelson is currently the 21st (Someone else was paid more recently) highest paid WR in the NFL. I don't think you believe he seriously is that good.

Just as a reference, the 30th highest paid WR makes 9M/yr. the 40th makes 5M/yr. So depending on where you think he falls, we are talking about a potentially substantial drop off. IMO something like 7.5-8.5M/yr seems about right for Agholor.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

I voted to never forget Ray Lewis killed a guy.

Other thoughts:
- Pats came out aggressive to fix perceived weaknesses, at tight end, receiver, run defense, edge setting, linebackers overall, and DMac almost at retirement. So for effort it is commendable, overall Grade of B. I am not sure we fixed everything particularly for run defense.

Specific player commentary, Offense:
- Henry is a conventional tight end. He can't play outside, he's not as fast as Gronk was. Henry should basically play next to the OLine always. He's an above average conventional tight end. He's not a chess piece you move around everywhere.
- Jonnu Smith really intrigues me. Super quick. Elite runs after screen-catches and inside the hash marks. I think he is better than Aaron Hernandez. Give him all the h-back and fullback throws plus screen passes. I would move this guy all over the place and put him in presnap motion a ton as well.
- Agholar was an overpay but he's fast and easily the best deep threat on the team. I don't know if he's just another Bethel Johnson. He's not a chess piece to move around, just keep him outside and running deep sideline and post routes.
- Bourne is solid and has a very similar game as Meyers. Bourne can get open and has good hands. Would always play Bourne ahead of Byrd or Harry. The top3 receivers should be Meyers, Agholar, Bourne.

Specific Player Commentary, Defense:
- I am hopeful Godchaux is a good run stuffer but I have doubts. He put up high tackle numbers but I've seen tape where he gets pushed back a lot. He is not a Ted Washington brick wall. His productive year the Dolphins were 28th against the run. His draft scouting profile was a better pass rusher than run stopper. We sorely needed a NT and I am hopeful he is it, but have some doubts.
- I don't see Anderson as a game changer.
- I am excited about Judon, he's had a great career in Baltimore. He fills an obvious need at edge/OLB. He's a good pass rusher. This might be unfair but I still have ptsd from the Adalius Thomas bust signing. But I am excited about Judon. And Van Noy back we should have a more solidified edge.
- I am excited about McMillan. An aggressive downhill attacking LB. He easily takes Bentley's role.
- Mills looks like a chess piece who can be used everywhere. We need a DMac replacement soon, don't know if it's him. I see Dugger and Phillips as more box type safeties so unclear who is the heir apparent at FS.

I think Agholar was an overpay but in the grand scheme of things I don't think it was terrible on any of these contract terms.

I think players expendable to trade, or on a burning hot seat, include Harry, Wynn, Michel, Keene, Byrd, Vitale, Bentley, JaJuanW.

 

[Ring 6]

He will be playing out both years of his contract. His cap hit is 7M this year and 15M next year with 10 of that being a dead hit if cut. That averages out to 11M. I'm sure the Patriots hope to extend him if he does well next year and cut his cap, but Agholor will have negotiating power.

So assuming he plays out both years he's getting 11M/yr. A few stats you're forgetting. He was 39th in YPG. (36th among WRs). It was also his best year in his career which spans 6 years. It isn't like he suddenly got better. Things just happened to fall his way that year a little. Are we going to really like at his career year in yards. YPR and TDs and say that's what he is? I don't think we should. He'll probably be closer to 700 yards than 900 yards. Nelson is currently the 21st (Someone else was paid more recently) highest paid WR in the NFL. I don't think you believe he seriously is that good.

Just as a reference, the 30th highest paid WR makes 9M/yr. the 40th makes 5M/yr. So depending on where you think he falls, we are talking about a potentially substantial drop off. IMO something like 7.5-8.5M/yr seems about right for Agholor.

Why would you expect a players improvement to subside? He is in his prime. He has grown into the player he was last year. He has improved beyond the player he was 3 years ago that’s how it works.
Clearly he was used better in LV than Philly. Clearly the patriots expect to use him in the way he thrived.
He absolutely unquestionably was a top 20 WR last year.

 

[luuked]

Gilmore was a wait and see. He always had the potential to be a top CB and at times looked like it, but he never put it together consistently. I was okay with that contract, though I didn't give it an A+. If anyone says they knew they were getting the best CB in the league at the time, they are lying.

How is that contract any different than Jonnu Smith or Hunter Henry ? Both have elite TE potential with Henry being already more accomplished who just needs more targets while Jonnu just needs to put it all together consistently (and not get stuck with more inline duty because of OL issues like half way through last season with the Titans) ?

I would get if people were giving out a B on those deals but Cs and Ds are silly.

 

[yukon cornelius]

How is that contract any different than Jonnu Smith or Hunter Henry ? Both have elite TE potential with Henry being already more accomplished who just needs more targets while Jonnu just needs to put it all together consistently (and not get stuck with more inline duty because of OL issues like half way through last season with the Titans) ?

I would get if people were giving out a B on those deals but Cs and Ds are silly.

It’s been a strong 24 hours for stupid

 

[Kontradiction]

Fair analysis. Couple of comments.
I think Smith is an A player so if we spent a little more to wrap him up right away im fine with that.
I’d give Anderson a higher grade because he’s a great fit for the system.
I watched a lot of raider games and Ruggs wasn’t taking coverage away from anyone.
You are way over grading cam

I spent a lot of time during my paternity leave breaking down the All-22 film of players I liked in last years draft. I spent a bit more time a week ago watching Agholor’s catches last season. Can you tell me specific games in which defenses did not have a safety shaded to his side of the field? I’ll pull it up on Game Pass and see if the claim holds mustard. Aside from the end of the Jets game which, I would assume, they were trying to blow.

 

[Ring 6]

I spent a lot of time during my paternity leave breaking down the All-22 film of players I liked in last years draft. I spent a bit more time a week ago watching Agholor’s catches last season. Can you tell me specific games in which defenses did not have a safety shaded to his side of the field? I’ll pull it up on Game Pass and see if the claim holds mustard. Aside from the end of the Jets game which, I would assume, they were trying to blow.

A safety shaded to whose side of the field? Agholors yes. Ruggs no.

 

[Kontradiction]

A safety shaded to whose side of the field? Agholors yes. Ruggs no.

Ruggs almost always had a safety shaded to his side of the field. And Waller was frequently doubled. Agholor enjoyed a lot of single coverage in man. What specific game are you referring to? I can pull it up on Game Pass with no problem. I’d love to see instances in which Agholor thrived in double coverage. It would also help expand the conversation. If you could give me quarter, then even better.

 

[luuked]

It’s been a strong 24 hours for stupid

Don't get me even started on the hate Agholor is getting.

That being said it is always extremely funny to see when posters here berate Belichick on the moves they did with respect to the salary cap. As if those folks were sitting in during the negotiations and have a clue why some contracts look the way they do.

 

[Ring 6]

Ruggs almost always had a safety shaded to his side of the field. And Waller was frequently doubled. Agholor enjoyed a lot of single coverage in man. What specific game are you referring to? I can pull it up on Game Pass with no problem. I’d love to see instances in which Agholor thrived in double coverage. It would also help expand the conversation. If you could give me quarter, then even better.

From all the raider games I saw defenses aligned based upon formation. There wasn’t a double coverage scheme on any wr. I saw no effort to devote extra attention to Henry Ruggs. If you disagree that’s fine.