Grade the Patriots 2021 Free Agency

[PScottman]

Every year we criticize other fan bases for exactly this exercise.

Not only that, but there will be the unexpected injury and there will be the "guy that doesn't get it" (whether the playbook or the 'Patriots Way' or whatever) and there will be the unexpected camp cut.

There is no perfect draft and no perfect free agency period. This approach of "winning" off-season events is akin to big movie hype - "OMG the trailer was awesome this is going to be the best movie ever!" - then you're sitting in the reclining seat wondering "I mean, it's okay, but wish I hadn't spent $120 for the whole family to see it".

 

[PScottman]

What exactly makes Denver attractive?

Home Air Advantage?

 

[Kontradiction]

From all the raider games I saw defenses aligned based upon formation. There wasn’t a double coverage scheme on any wr. I saw no effort to devote extra attention to Henry Ruggs. If you disagree that’s fine.

Sure I do. They frequently shaded a safety to his side of the field. The safety has to be deeper than the deepest man unless his assignment is an underneath route. Ruggs’ route tree consisted heavily of 7, 8, and 9-routes. Unless it was Cover-0, he was going to draw that one safety. The Raiders saw a lot of Cover-2, though, because of Waller. Most of Agholor’s big plays came when he was singled in man, when there was a two deep shell and the other safety was playing the Robber role, or in zone. I can think of three specific instances in the All-22 film I watched in which he had a safety dedicated to his side of the field and still made a play through double coverage - first Chiefs game where it looked like the CB actually blew the coverage and left Mathieu trying to clean up the garbage, Bucs game where he legitimately caught a touchdown while being doubled, and the Colts game. That’s pretty much it. That’s not to say he won’t be effective with us. He will. I just don’t think he will be as effective on the deeper routes and will probably be more effective piling up YAC. Now if we get another legitimate WR who can threaten defenses outside the numbers? Sure. He could probably have a career year.

 

[sb1]

B- is the ceiling to me right now as long as a guy who cant throw a football is our presumed starting QB.

 

[sb1]

TE - A +
WR - C
NT - B
Defense - B
OL - C +

QB: D-

 

[RIpats88]

People need to stop looking at the money when grading these signings. The cap NEVER drops and it did this year due to a once in a century pandemic. So, you can expect the cap to go up at least $20million next year. not to mention the TV deals coming which are projected to skyrocket the cap.

What look like "overpays" now really may look like bargains in a couple years or even a year from now if the cap goes up and more teams have money to spend. Also, when you look at the actual deals, the cap hits are reasonable and honestly who cares about money that is Bob Krafts and not ours.

 

[BobDigital]

How is that contract any different than Jonnu Smith or Hunter Henry ? Both have elite TE potential with Henry being already more accomplished who just needs more targets while Jonnu just needs to put it all together consistently (and not get stuck with more inline duty because of OL issues like half way through last season with the Titans) ?

I would get if people were giving out a B on those deals but Cs and Ds are silly.

Let me clarify what I mean. Henry has one 100 yard game in his career. He's had other good games, but in 4 years having only one 100 yard game doesn't tell me he has the potential to repeat that kind of game often. He has 1 single stretch in his career of 4 games where he's had over 50 yards each game. I'm not looking for the occasional lightning in a bottle or double headers. I'm looking for somewhat long stretches in his previous years when he showed he had what it took to be a close to elite TE. He's has only shown it once in his career. That isn't enough for me. Gilmore IMO had multiple strings of games where he was pro bowl level. And multiple games where he looked like an all-pro. Henry doesn't have that. And that goes doubly for Junno.

Has Hunter looked like a very good player for a stretches? Yes. Is it possible he could put that together consistently? Yes. If you're telling me he could turn into a TE that gains close to 750-800 yards a year if healthy for 16 games I would consider that as possible. He hasn't done it yet, but I think he could. Sure. But even if he becomes that he STILL wouldn't justify his contract. That's the problem. To me he needs to be just about a 1,000 yard guy a year reliably to justify his contract. I just don't see that as at all likely.

Maybe he will be that. Then I will happily admit I was wrong.

 

[venecol]

People need to stop looking at the money when grading these signings. The cap NEVER drops and it did this year due to a once in a century pandemic. So, you can expect the cap to go up at least $20million next year. not to mention the TV deals coming which are projected to skyrocket the cap.

What look like "overpays" now really may look like bargains in a couple years or even a year from now if the cap goes up and more teams have money to spend. Also, when you look at the actual deals, the cap hits are reasonable and honestly who cares about money that is Bob Krafts and not ours.

This is nonsense. How do you ignore money when evaluating free agency signings. Some of these could just as easily be viewed as busts if FAs don't play to the "potential" the deals are clearly based on.

The total amount spent isn't the issue since it was available. Could the team not use another $8 to $10M this year in overpays? Could better players have been signed for the same contract amounts or a little more?

And arguing that we weren't "in the room" or criticizing "after the fact" is meaningless when that is the entire purpose of evaluating the GM's performance during FA.

Bill did a good job in addressing the total lack of talent in many areas of the roster. Re-signing Andrews and bringing back KVN were excellent decisions, both at great value. I'm not ready to grade this because FAcy isn't over yet, but so far I'd say it's in the B- level.

 

[Bill Lee]

B- is the ceiling to me right now as long as a guy who cant throw a football is our presumed starting QB.

What FA would you have signed to fix that?

What does that do to your ability to spend on some of the other FAs we just signed?

 

[sb1]

What FA would you have signed to fix that?

What does that do to your ability to spend on some of the other FAs we just signed?

They re-signed the QB who can’t throw. He is now presumed starter. That counts as a free agency signing as much as the rest of them.

 

[Bill Lee]

They re-signed the QB who can’t throw. He is now presumed starter. That counts as a free agency signing as much as the rest of them.

Sure, fine. Now tell us what other FA QB you would have signed instead so we can admire your genius level thinking.

 

[luuked]

Has Hunter looked like a very good player for a stretches? Yes. Is it possible he could put that together consistently? Yes. If you're telling me he could turn into a TE that gains close to 750-800 yards a year if healthy for 16 games I would consider that as possible. He hasn't done it yet, but I think he could. Sure. But even if he becomes that he STILL wouldn't justify his contract. That's the problem. To me he needs to be just about a 1,000 yard guy a year reliably to justify his contract. I just don't see that as at all likely.

So how do you quantify value ?

You keep coming back to this 1000 yards a year for whatever reason. You do realize that this is just a function of targets though right ?

When you normalize that number to be actually comparable by looking at yards per target then in all of his years with Rivers -- where he was used less around the line and was able to run longer developing routes -- he was bouncing around the magical 9.0 Y/T which is where you enter elite receiving TE territory (i.e. Kelce has 9.2 through his career, Waller is at 9.0 looking only at his more productive LV years, Gronk due to his GOAT status a 9.7).

Now what makes this even more complicated -- since we are talking actual TEs that can block -- is that a true TE is also generating value on plays where we are not even passing the ball or when the ball goes to someone else because having Smith/Henry on the field allowed to create a mismatch against e.g. a LB. Or when his help on a block against an elite pass rusher is exactly that second time our QB needed to find Agholor deep. Which in another universe might have been a strip sack. And those are the most obvious examples..

I don't really see how you quantify anything like that in your argument by appealing to the notion that he "didn't yet hit 1000 yards".

Finally, I would be very interested how you'd even come up with your numbers ?

 

[Twentytothree]

To me he needs to be just about a 1,000 yard guy a year reliably to justify his contract. I just don't see that as at all likely.

Maybe he will be that. Then I will happily admit I was wrong.

Each recent season there have been only 2 or 3 tight ends with 1000+ yards. The only ones to do so "reliably" (Kelce, Kittle) already make more than Hunter on their current deals. Waller is comically underpaid for his recent production. Using your criterion, Belichick would be long retired before finding a TE.

 

[venecol]

What FA would you have signed to fix that?

What does that do to your ability to spend on some of the other FAs we just signed?

I have to admit, this is probably the best and most ballsy thing Bill did as a GM:

1. He knew there weren't any QBs available in FAcy that would significantly move the needle and would cost more;
2. The QBs that could move the needle had jobs and the one (JG) he "apparently" wanted to get wasn't available either;
3. He concluded that bringing Cam back was the best value, gave him a slight raise, and it freed up $$ to go after players to fill up all the holes in the roster;
4. He didn't care about the blowback of this decision by the media or the hysterical sissies at Patsfan.com

For that, I'm revising my grade from B- to B+

 

[sb1]

Sure, fine. Now tell us what other FA QB you would have signed instead so we can admire your genius level thinking.

I was responding to a post grading signings by position. The Pats signed a free agent who can’t throw. Therefore D- signing.

There was no urgency to do that. I agree that a new QB is needed badly but there are other ways to bring a new QB to this team than signing a guy who proved last year he can’t throw a football.

 

[JMC00]

He was 39th in YPG. (36th among WRs).

Nelson Agholor wasn't paid to get 100 yards per game. He's here to give the team someone that can do this



Make a defense actually have to respect someone on the outside.


As far as the YPG. Among WRs that saw less than 90 targets and more than 25 targets he ranked 7th




Fuller and Brown were the only others available in FA. You can question why Agholor and not Fuller maybe they tried for Fuller and he was looking at a 1 year prove-it and hit the market next year for a big deal and Brown isn't happening.

I'd imagine if Godwin hit the FA market Bill would have went after him hard.

The only real argument that could be made of who they should have gotten instead is Corey Davis. Golladay for me wasn't an option, just weren't gonna pay him $18m per

But again we have no clue maybe they were interested in Davis and he wasn't.

 

[rochrist]

Update: C- trending toward D+

One of the very few strengths of the team, OL, is now a complete mess.

DT is a downgrade: Guy & Butler > Godchaux & Dee Wise & Especially Anderson.

Billy's done the Impossible...and Not in a good way.

Well this post was predictable.

 

[Bill Lee]

I have to admit, this is probably the best and most ballsy thing Bill did as a GM:

1. He knew there weren't any QBs available in FAcy that would significantly move the needle and would cost more;
2. The QBs that could move the needle had jobs and the one (JG) he "apparently" wanted to get wasn't available either;
3. He concluded that bringing Cam back was the best value, gave him a slight raise, and it freed up $$ to go after players to fill up all the holes in the roster;
4. He didn't care about the blowback of this decision by the media or the hysterical sissies at Patsfan.com

For that, I'm revising my grade from B- to B+

Being a very self confident economics major that does not gaf is a big part of this, far more than the "Brady envy" narrative that got floated a few days ago.

I'd add:

5. He knows there will be a bump in the salary cap next year and has a bunch of cut-able or restructure-able contracts on the books so he can make a go at a top level FA next year or replace whatever mid-level duds he missed on this year.

I was responding to a post grading signings by position. The Pats signed a free agent who can’t throw. Therefore D- signing.

There was no urgency to do that. I agree that a new QB is needed badly but there are other ways to bring a new QB to this team than signing a guy who proved last year he can’t throw a football.

Sorry, I lost track of replies that changed the nature of the discussion (mumble mumble ignored users mumble mumble)...

 

[luuked]

But again we have no clue maybe they were interested in Davis and he wasn't.

Davis is not as versatile and elusive in traffic. They can stick Agholor really anywhere and let him use his speed and quickness.

Short, Intermediate, Deep, Outside, MOF..

He won't be some magic do it all but as you wrote he needs to be taken seriously by opponents.

 

[mgteich]

I was responding to a post grading signings by position. The Pats signed a free agent who can’t throw. Therefore D- signing.

There was no urgency to do that. I agree that a new QB is needed badly but there are other ways to bring a new QB to this team than signing a guy who proved last year he can’t throw a football.

yet another poster who prefers that we didn't spend $3.5M on Newton and instead went with Stidham.

Let us presume that Belichick drafts a first round QB.

Some here prefer that Newton start a few games. Some prefer Stidham.

Some would have spent millions and signed ??? who would be a huge advantage for a few games.
==========
Even if we prefer a trade for Jimmy, or another trade, even $5M for Cam as a backup isn't crazy.

And, yes, I would have preferred Trubisksy for the same money.