BobDigital
Pro Bowl Player
- Joined
- Aug 10, 2013
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So how do you quantify value ?
You keep coming back to this 1000 yards a year for whatever reason. You do realize that this is just a function of targets though right ?
When you normalize that number to be actually comparable by looking at yards per target then in all of his years with Rivers -- where he was used less around the line and was able to run longer developing routes -- he was bouncing around the magical 9.0 Y/T which is where you enter elite receiving TE territory (i.e. Kelce has 9.2 through his career, Waller is at 9.0 looking only at his more productive LV years, Gronk due to his GOAT status a 9.7).
Now what makes this even more complicated -- since we are talking actual TEs that can block -- is that a true TE is also generating value on plays where we are not even passing the ball or when the ball goes to someone else because having Smith/Henry on the field allowed to create a mismatch against e.g. a LB. Or when his help on a block against an elite pass rusher is exactly that second time our QB needed to find Agholor deep. Which in another universe might have been a strip sack. And those are the most obvious examples..
I don't really see how you quantify anything like that in your argument by appealing to the notion that he "didn't yet hit 1000 yards".
Finally, I would be very interested how you'd even come up with your numbers ?
How do I quantify value? Very difficultly, with various ifs, buts and exceptions. Just like everyone else. There is no sure fire way to assign the exact correct value to any player. For instance, as you pointing out, there are targets to consider. Not to mention big plays, crunch time and ability to succeed against tough competition.
Yes 1,000 yards is a solid number. It isn't just a function of targets. While it's true any player in the NFL can get 1,000 yards if he gets enough targets, no team will just keep throwing too a guy who isn't producing well over and over again until he has 1,000 yards. Targets is a reflection of production, just as production is a reflection of targets. If you win your match up often, or create big plays often, more targets will naturally go your way. If you don't do either often, they won't.
Agholor isn't getting enough targets to get 1,000 yards because he isn't doing enough to 'earn' getting those targets.
Then again, some guys get targetted less, because some games they are double team and that lowers their production. For instance Evans only got 1 officail target and 1 catch for 31 yards in the super bowl. That doesn't mean he didn't play a game good. He absorbed a lot of double teams and drew some penalties. So clearly you can't just look at stats or total figures, particularly in a single game. That said, over the course of a season they tend to add up to show a fairly reliable picture.
It's also true that in some places where there are less good players a player will get more Targets. Diggs for instance led the NFL in yards, but also led in targets. Is Diggs a good WR? Yes. Was he the best WR in the NFL last year? I don't think so. But because he was on Buffalo where there weren't a bunch of top tier weapons (the number 2 was a slot WR who isn't really a 'big play' guy in Beasley). Instead of on a team like the Bucs that is was loaded with top weapons last years, he got more chances and looks. That isn't to say he isn't a elite #1 WR, but there are other factors we must consider.
The reason i'm being a stickler for Agholor and I like the 1,000 yard conversation peice, is because he never hit it once in his career. It wasn't like he was on a loaded team last year. Why didn't he get open more? It's worth asking. Never once in his career has he lead his team in yards or TDs. He has never been the most talented or impactful offensive player on his team from a statistical stand point. And his targets reflect that.
But maybe I'm wrong and he will have a huge impact here. We will see. I'll admit it if I'm wrong about him when the time comes.