GM LOUNGE

[captain stone]

Note that Jakub Johnson should not count against 90 roster limit (as he did not last offseason).

Plenty of cuts coming before draft and after.

Yep, there's still some more fat to trim before we need to worry about having to cut actually good players, but there's certainly a fair bit less of it now than there was at the end of last season; so we have that going for us...

 

[captain stone]

It is very possible BB trades down. Maybe to recover his missing 3rd? Does any "soon to be GMs" know what we would get trading 15 down to 22 for example? A 3rd? Can we get a 2nd dropping 15 to 26 for example?

One possibility is Washington trading us #s 19 & either 74 or 82 for #15 and the ability to draft Mac Jones...

 

[DaBruinz]

One possibility is Washington trading us #s 19 & either 74 or 82 for #15 and the ability to draft Mac Jones...

You think that Washington is going to toss a 3rd to move up 4 spots?? SMH... That's such wishful thinking..

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

You think that Washington is going to toss a 3rd to move up 4 spots?? SMH... That's such wishful thinking..

Washington signed Fitzmagic who is not a long term answer. So they must be looking at the draft for a QB of the future. They signed C. Samuel and if they like Mac Jones they might move up to get him. Miami needs someone behind Tua, maybe they go Pitts early and Washington is scared Miami will grab Jones in front of them. I agree a high 3rd for a drop from 15 to 19 is an aggressive prediction, but a fan can dream!

 

[DaBruinz]

Washington signed Fitzmagic who is not a long term answer. So they must be looking at the draft for a QB of the future. They signed C. Samuel and if they like Mac Jones they might move up to get him. Miami needs someone behind Tua, maybe they go Pitts early and Washington is scared Miami will grab Jones in front of them. I agree a high 3rd for a drop from 15 to 19 is an aggressive prediction, but a fan can dream!

You're forgetting that Washing has a 28 year old Taylor Heinecke (play-off hero) and also Kyle Allen. Fitzpatrick is their Vet to help guide the other two. It's highly unlikely that they're going to be looking at a QB early. That is what the Fitzpatrick signing told me.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

There might not be many holes to fill
General GM approach is: FA to fill the needs, Draft best player available.
It doesn't always work like this due to cap, FA offer at positions, FA competition etc.

It usually works like this for BB though and this year the holes are/will be filled in FA. Pats were “lucky“ to have so much cap in depressed market and that positions they had biggest needs offered good options. Id argue big holes are already filled - now is about opportunities to upgrade and depth.

There are 3 big parts of FA left: from now until the Draft / after Draft to Minicamp / from Minicamp to Training Camp (incl post June 1 trades)

I suggest we focus on this second part of FA in this thread at the moment. So many good and even very good players still out there that will be incredible bargains. I will post updated positional FA lists to see what's still out there and discuss what could be added to the roster.

In any case i would not draft 10 players this year - possibly not even close to that.
.

Thanks @long distance. I see DE, CB and FS still as primary holes. Maybe Gilmore is signed for 3 more years and the CB hole disappears. D McCourty is 1, or 2 years at the most from retiring, so we need a FS. Of course QB goes without saying. In the 2nd part of FA I do not see a top prospect to play CB or FA next year - I know, I know, what about 2021 first? Haha. We have to plan a bit. Depending on how Gilmore's contract talks, or a trade shake out, I think we need to look ahead a bit and I do not see a top notch CB or FS being signed in the 2nd phase of FA.

I think most agree we need to plug a hole at DE and the FAs left are quite old, and BB does not look to be signing guys over 30 this year. Maybe Guy but this late in FA I think BB would have already signed Guy if he was interested (Guy is 31).

So depending on what happens with Gilmore, I see a need at DE, CB and FS going into the draft. One of the 1st three rounds will be a QB, so I thought 4 picks in rounds 1 to 3 would be nice .

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

You're forgetting that Washing has a 28 year old Taylor Heinecke (play-off hero) and also Kyle Allen. Fitzpatrick is their Vet to help guide the other two. It's highly unlikely that they're going to be looking at a QB early. That is what the Fitzpatrick signing told me.

I didn't forget Heinecke or Allen. Best of luck to Washington with those two as their future QB.

 

[luuked]

I didn't forget Heinecke or Allen. Best of luck to Washington with those two as their future QB.

As the old saying goes.. Best time to draft a QB is when you dont need one.

 

[jah]

Note that Jakub Johnson should not count against 90 roster limit (as he did not last offseason).

Plenty of cuts coming before draft and after.

Is that true about Johnson? The way I remember it, he had the international exemption in 2019 but we gave up the exception so that he could be eligible to play on the 53 man roster (which he eventually did do). I believe ever since then, he's just been treated as a normal player.

 

[long distance]

Washington signed Fitzmagic who is not a long term answer. So they must be looking at the draft for a QB of the future. They signed C. Samuel and if they like Mac Jones they might move up to get him. Miami needs someone behind Tua, maybe they go Pitts early and Washington is scared Miami will grab Jones in front of them. I agree a high 3rd for a drop from 15 to 19 is an aggressive prediction, but a fan can dream!

You're forgetting that Washing has a 28 year old Taylor Heinecke (play-off hero) and also Kyle Allen. Fitzpatrick is their Vet to help guide the other two. It's highly unlikely that they're going to be looking at a QB early. That is what the Fitzpatrick signing told me.

Can we please focus on FA here first.
There are numerous threads about QB speculations & fantasies out there.. some specifically opened for trade speculations..

 

[DaBruinz]

I didn't forget Heinecke or Allen. Best of luck to Washington with those two as their future QB.

Or they're looking at it from a perspective that they want to see what Heinecke can do or if he was just a one game wonder. With Fitzpatrick aboard, they can always turn to him and focus on next year's draft at QB when it's supposed to be a much deeper draft than this year.

 

[long distance]

Is that true about Johnson? The way I remember it, he had the international exemption in 2019 but we gave up the exception so that he could be eligible to play on the 53 man roster (which he eventually did do). I believe ever since then, he's just been treated as a normal player.

As far as i could learn it should be. After they used exemption in 2019 preseason - they did not use exemption for PS 2019 and he played - as you mention. As Pats Pulpit reported they received another exemption for him in 2020 offseason. There is no info if they asked/received exemption again for 2021 off/pre-season..

 

[Sciz]

As far as i could learn it should be. After they used exemption in 2019 preseason - they did not use exemption for PS 2019 and he played - as you mention. As Pats Pulpit reported they received another exemption for him in 2020 offseason. There is no info if they asked/received exemption again for 2021 off/pre-season..

The exemption was announced the Wednesday after the draft last year. My guess is that the exemption isn’t used until it’s needed, meaning he will be announced as exempt as soon as there are 90 other guys (likely not until after the draft).

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Major needs after first week of free agency:

1.) qb - newton is beyond horrible.
2.) #1 wr - man, would waddle make our receivers deadly!
3.) og - after onwenu and mason, we only have karras.
4.) fs - if mccourty gets covid or injured, we do not have a back up for him.

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

Major needs after first week of free agency:

1.) qb - newton is beyond horrible.
2.) #1 wr - man, would waddle make our receivers deadly!
3.) og - after onwenu and mason, we only have karras.
4.) fs - if mccourty gets covid or injured, we do not have a back up for him.

1. Agreed, top priority in the draft. Come out of it with our qb of the future.
2. Let me first say that I like waddle. No qualms from me if we select him. Would also understand if we wait on wr a little later. Pretty deep class. Did we overpay on our 2 new wrs? Yeah but I’m ok with it. Both these guys can separate, the opposite of Harry. This gives me hope that this will be a quality we look for in our possible draft pick at wr.
3. Agreed, mid rounds.
4.Agree as well. We have Chungs replacement this is the time to find Dmacs.
5. I’ll also add ILB. Unknown how Hightower plays after a year off; he’s not getting any younger wouldn’t hurt to find his replacement as well.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

1. Agreed, top priority in the draft. Come out of it with our qb of the future.
2. Let me first say that I like waddle. No qualms from me if we select him. Would also understand if we wait on wr a little later. Pretty deep class. Did we overpay on our 2 new wrs? Yeah but I’m ok with it. Both these guys can separate, the opposite of Harry. This gives me hope that this will be a quality we look for in our possible draft pick at wr.
3. Agreed, mid rounds.
4.Agree as well. We have Chungs replacement this is the time to find Dmacs.
5. I’ll also add ILB. Unknown how Hightower plays after a year off; he’s not getting any younger wouldn’t hurt to find his replacement as well.

totally agree with your linebacker assessment. Excellent point.

 

[long distance]

QB (3-4) - 1Newton (32, 2021,$5.4), 4Stidham (25, 2022, $0.8), 8Dolegala (24,futures)

RB (6-7) - 26Michel* (26, 2021+1, $3), 37D.Harris (24, 2022, $1), 42JJ.Taylor (23, 2022, $0,8), 38Bolden* (31, 2021, $2),
FB (2) - 47Johnson* (26, ERFA, +1-*international), #Vitale (27, 2021, $1,3)

WR (9-11) - Agholor (28,2022,$7), 11Edelman* (35,2021,$6.1), Bourne, (26,2023,$3.1), 15Harry (23,2022+1,$2,8), 16Meyers (24,2021,$0,9), 80Olszewski* (24,2021,$0,9), 19Zuber (24, futures), 13D.Smith (29, futures), 17Wilkerson (24, futures)

TE (6-7) - Smith (26,2024,$5.7), Henry (26,2023,$6.8), 86Asiasi (24,2023,$1), 44Keene (22,2023,$1), 83LaCosse* (29,2021,1.5$)

OT (6) - 76Wynn (25,2021,$3.6), Brown (28,2021, ), 75Herron (25,2023,$0,8), 77Cajuste (25,2022,$1), 74Cunningham (26,2021,$0,9)
OG (6) - 69Mason (28,2023,$9.8), 71Onwenu™ (23,2023,$0,8), 68Toran (G,25,2021,$0,8), 64Reynolds (G,25,futures)
OC (3) - 60Andrews (29,2024,$1.8), Karras (29, 2021, $), 68M.Martin (C/LG,27,2021,$0.9),


DL (7) - Godchaux (27,2022,$4), Anderson (30,2022,$2,7), 98C.Davis (29,2022,$1.9), 99Cowart (25,2022,$0,9), Adams (26,2021, $)
52Spence (29,2021,$2), 76M.Barnett (24,2022,$0,8) 92Thurman (26,futures), 97Murray (24,futures)

ED (7) - Judon (29,2024,6.4), 50Winovich* (26,2022,$1.1), 53Uche* (23,2023,$1.2), 91Wise* (27,2024,$3.3), 96Bower (26,2021,$0,9), 43Berry (24,2021,$0.8),

LB (7) - 54Hightower (31,2021,$12.5/10), 53Van Noy (30,2022,$4.4), 51Bentley* (25,2021,$1), 58Jennings* (24,2023,$1), McMillan (24 )
59Hall (24,2021,$0.8), 46Maluia* (22,2021,$0.8), 48Pinckney (23, futures)

S (7) - 32D.McCourty* (34,2021,$11.2), 21Phillips* (29,2021,$3.5), 35Dugger* (25,2023,$1.9), 23Mills (27,2024,4.6$), 41Bryant* (23,2022,$0.9)

CB (9-11) - 24Gilmore (31,2021,$16.3), 27JC.Jackson (25,2021,3.4$), 31J.Jones* (28,2022,$7.1), 33Williams* (23,2022,$1.8),
45M.Jackson (24,2021,$0.8), 38Virgin (27,2021,$0.9), 39Ross (24,futures)

ST - 7Bailey (24,2022,$0.9), 49Cardona (29,2022,$1.1), 6Folk (36, 2021, 1.6$), 5Rohrwasser (24,futures), 9Aguayo (27,futures)
18Slater (36,2021,$3), 36King (28,2021,$1.4), 29Bethel (31,2023, $), 22Cody Davis (32,2022, $)

Let me repost current roster again since a series of posts derailed the intention of looking at second part of FA that should get some more steam again tomorrow. Looking ahead ill also add some recaps of FA moves so far related to our pre FA discussions.

So 79 players reportedly on the roster (5 contracts still missing). This is the cap situation acc to Miguel:



Its hard to accurately speculate what the actual cap now might be . without any additional info about reported Brown's new contract (1y/11M) . but lets say it will at least contain significant NLBT playing time incentives (since Brown only played 5 games in 2020) and possibly also other incentives to keep cap lower. As you could see most contracts so far had very small 2021 Cap Numbers. Looking at this remaining unofficial contracts (counting TOP 51 rule) my safe guess would be Pats currently have 10-15M Cap Space left and it is probably closer to 15M.

This is before any additional cuts, restructures etc. (Chung's probable post June 1 release) that can create a lot of additional cap space if needed. Patriots are one of the very few teams that did not use restructures to create cap in this FA yet (another sign how “aggresive“ they were )

So whenever you're thinking about Cap remember that situation is much more fluid than it looks on the outside..

tbc..

 

[long distance]

... looking at contract structures so far you can see that even 15M of Cap Space can buy you lots of good players.
Note: When you are adding new players subtract only their Cap Hits bc of TOP 51 contracts rule.
So subtract c. 0.8M (lowest TOP 51 contract) from the Cap Number of new contract you are adding. That will be actual Cap Hit.

Since most players remaining will be signing contracts below 3M apy and will have cap hits in the range of 0 to 2M - even 15M of cap space can buy you lots of quality depth in this market..


OT T.Brown, 28, LV (14) — trade — NE — 2022 5th for 2022 7th — 1y/11M max
OT Cannon — traded to HOU — swap #122 (4)>159(5) + 187>195 (6)
QB 1Newton, 32 — re-signed — NE 1y/5M/3.5Mg/max14M = 5.4M cap # = 4.6M cap hit
ST 29Bethel* - (31, $2) > elite gunner — re-signed — 3y/6M
ST 22Cody Davis*,32 —re-signed — 2y/4.2M/2.1g = 1.9M Cap# = 1.1M cap hit
TE Smith, 26, TEN — 4y/50M/31g => 4y/50M/31g = 5.7M cap # = 5M cap hit (3y/38M; deal - 6.5M gtd of 2023 10M salary)
TE Henry, 26, LAC — 3y/37.5M/25g => 3y/37.5M/25g = 6.8 cap# = 6M cap hit
TE Izzo* (25, 2021, $0.9) — traded to HOU — 7rd 2022
WR Agholor, 28, LV — 2y/26M => 2y/22M>24/16g = 7M cap # = 6.2M cap hit
WR Bourne, 26, SF — 3y/22 => 3y/15M>22M/5g = 3.1M cap # = 2.3M cap hit (only 1y salary 1M gtd) = 1y/6M flyer (3M dead)
WR Lee (29, 2021, $1) (opt-out) — cut
NT Godchaux, 27, MIA — 2y/16M/9g => 2y/15M/9g = 4M cap # = 3.2M cap hit
DL Anderson, 30, NYJ — 2y/7>11M => 2y/7M/3g = 2.7 cap # = 2M cap hit
DT C.Davis, 29 — ………….. => 2y/4.3M/2g = 1.9M cap # = 1.1M cap hit
DL Adams, 26 — 1y/2.5Mmax
DL B.Allen (29,2021,$3) (inj.relese) — cut
DE Judon, 29, BAL — 4y/56M/32g => 4y/54.5M/30g = 6.4 cap # = 5.6M cap hit
DE Wise, 27 — 4y/30/10g => 4y/22M/10g = 3.3M cap # = 2.5M cap hit (2y salary gtd) = 2y/12M (2.5M dead)
DB Mills, 27, PHI — 4y/24/9g => 4y/24M/9g = 4.6M cap # = 3.8M cap hit (2y salary gdt) = 2y/9M (1.2 dead)
SS Chung* (34,1.9J-2) (opt-out) — retired
CB JC Jackson, 25 (RFA) — 2rd tender = 3.4M cap # = 2.6M cap hit
C Karras, 29, MIA — 1y/4M
C 60Andrews (29, #3.4) — 4y/19M>21/6.5g = 1.8M cap # = 1M cap hit
FB 47Johnson (+1-*international) — ERFA tender
OLB Van Noy, 30, MIA — 2y/12M>13.2/6g = 4.4M cap # = 3.6M cap hit
LB McMillan, 24, LV —
K 6Folk (36) — 1y/1.6M>2.5/1.2g = 1.6 cap # = 0.8M cap hit

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

There is a ton of CBs & Ss left. No idea who the Pats like. Still think Gilmore, who is 31, could be on the move. Adoree Jackson, Brian Poole, Quinton Dunbar, Malik Hooker and old friend Duron Harmon are out there, plus many more. Hooker has a lot of talent but is coming off an achilles and has always been injured, but he would be cheap on a 1 year deal and has talent (previous 1st rounder). Adoree Jackson is only 25 and from Tenn, so maybe BB dips into that well again (Judon). I am not a Myles Bryant fan (I thought he was lousy is the season finale), I have no idea if Michael Jackson will blossom or is forever a backup, and who knows if JoeJuan Williams will emerge. I would prefer to sign another CB or S in FA as opposed to drafting one.

The Pats have been good at drafting RB, so I doubt they will sign a significant FA RB, except White is still out there. I think Burkhead is done with that injury.

An average, or better, DE free agent would be nice, but I do not see one out there still. Clowney on 1 year maybe, but I think the price would be too high, but he can set the edge and has experience with the Texans.

 

[long distance]

There is a ton of CBs & Ss left. No idea who the Pats like. Still think Gilmore, who is 31, could be on the move. Adoree Jackson, Brian Poole, Quinton Dunbar, Malik Hooker and old friend Duron Harmon are out there, plus many more. Hooker has a lot of talent but is coming off an ACL and has always been injured, but he would be cheap on a 1 year deal and has talent (previous 1st rounder). Adoree Jackson is only 25 and from Tenn, so maybe BB dips into that well again (Judon). I am not a Myles Bryant fan (I thought he was lousy is the season finale), I have no idea if Michael Jackson will blossom or is forever a backup, and who knows if JoeJuan Williams will emerge. I would prefer to sign another CB or S in FA as opposed to drafting one.

The Pats have been good at drafting RB, so I doubt they will sign a significant FA RB, except White is still out there. I think Burkhead is done with that injury.

An average, or better, DE free agent would be nice, but I do not see one out there still. Clowney on 1 year maybe, but I think the price would be too high, but he can set the edge and has experience with the Texans.

Ok, lets go position by position. I leave DB debate for now and return to it a bit later since it is completely speculative at this point (if they move on from Gilmore etc.)

Lets start with DE. You stated before that you see DE as a hole which is quite a stretch imo. But im interested to hear in what sense?

Looking at the roster you have 4 starting edge guys (Judon, Wino, Uche & Wise).
In addition you have 3 big LBs who can all play edge (High, KVN, Jennings)
And you have Anderson who can play big DE in 3 fronts as well.
Note that all of these guys except HT are signed at least for 2 years and are mostly young players developing or in prime.

What kind of DE are you missing, who are you replacing in the lineup, how many snaps per game you give him and how much are you willing to pay for that knowing what you are already paying for what you have on the roster?