BaconGrudleCandy the draft God

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Sorry for the late reply. I haven't checked this thread in a while and just noticed it was bumped.

1) One of the main things I learned about the draft in general is people massively overvalue certain picks. Particular the #1 overall pick. Unless you have a Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck you should almost always trade down from that spot if possible. People often fall in love with the top rated QB, who is just as likely to hit as just about any other first round QB. Another that the value in the draft often falls within picks 8-15 in the first round. That is in large part because people too often fall in love with super athletes or people who fit the mold perfectly, as opposed to who is actually the best player. Aaron Donald is a great example. Didn't he fall because he was too small? Let other teams worry about who fits the prototype the best, worry about that guy who has a single 'flaw' that absolutely blows you away. That is the player you want.

I'm of this mindset too. I'm taking QB, a freak of nature or trade back. Most of the time a prospect is giving you the same numbers as someone a round later.

2) It's all about QBs. For players of course you have 1983 for QBs which was a massive draft and 2014 in more recent history. But I prefer drafts that signalled that there was a shift in league thinking. I would love to pick that one draft where the GMs finally 'got it' and realized the league had chanced, but even in 2017 a guy like Fournette was still going top 5, which is insane in today's game. It was too gradual. As for players who made a difference I think Shannon Sharpe was a big one. He was picked in round 7 cause he didn't fit the mold. I don't think TEs were ever valued the same way after that he signalled to GMs that we are no longer player 70s ground and pound. Some had gotten that massage, but he made it clear to everyone that we need to think differently about how we look at offense, which changes how you look at defense.

3) Cleveland proved that talent without purpose and coaching means nothing. Besides QB I thought they had a lot of potential hits on their hands that they allowed to get ruined and it goes to show that talent only matters when you have it pulling in a unified and coordinated direction. As far as teams that hit on talent and are able to use it, it's hard to look at a better example than the Ravens. They have been amazing at the draft and have the know how to tape into that talent year after year.

Yep without player development, work ethic and camaraderie you no culture. I like the bold, great way to describe it.

4) I don't think you have a strongest spot or one that is particularly weak. It changes year to year. If I went over the numbers i'm sure one would kind of stick out but I don't think it is glaring. Off the top of my head I would guess your best is WR and your worst might well be Edge, but I think that's in part because you seem to especially love edge players and so rank more of them than any other spot year after year.

Yea I'm sure I have my biases. I'm sure as hard as I try to be objective I fall to victim to personal favorites and name prospects. Feel like I've gotten better with some stuff it's tough to not look at draft stuff, opinions on Twitter etc when I'm watching and researching so much of the sport.

5) Nope. I don't have a good enough memory to keep that kind of information in my mind. But when it comes to rounds I will say this. The 4th round is massively undervalued. Technically you could trade the 16th overall pick for 12 or so 4th round picks. That to me is insane. So really any 4th round class is a good example of where to find value in my mind. The 5th round seems to fall off a cliff routinely.

I was going to say the same about the 5th. I feel like the 3rd too.

Appreciate the feedback!

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I don't think you are giving yourself enough credit, tbh. You've been able to use your draft knowledge to critique players who are playing currently.
Define being "smart". Is it book knowledge? Is it practical application knowledge? Is it "street smarts"? Is is having "Un"-commen sense?

You have similarities to Joel Buschbaum. I say that because he was a savant. He could review the all-22 tapes and see what players were doing right, wrong, and how players abilities might be over-valued or under-valued depending on the team they were on. You've shown a very similar ability with your PTP Draft Boards and your player evals. You've also been able to project pretty decently how players would do regardless of the teams they went to. THAT is what is amazing to me..

A person like yourself who can evaluate college players the way you do is worth his weight in gold. You said you were 185 lbs, right? By my calculations (2700 Troy Ounces * $1849) that's just shy of $5M.. LOL. In all seriousness. There is no harm at all in putting together what you have accomplished and sending it to Belichick. The worst that could happen is that you get a letter back from Berj saying that they're not interested in what you offer. But, at least you'll be able to say that you tried. And it won't nag at you in the back of your mind.

appreciate it, nice to hear this sometimes bc it's not easy. Thanks man

 

[Mark Morse]

Have you added any players into your Patriots draft board based upon the Senior Bowl practices? Anyone you need to look at again?

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Have you added any players into your Patriots draft board based upon the Senior Bowl practices? Anyone you need to look at again?

I will be updating very soon. Hate using it as an excuse but work has been killing me. Don't anticipate big changes. Looks like some reshuffling and probably adding 5-8 prospects I'd guess.

 

[Mark Morse]

I want to use your big board for an upcoming Mock Draft. That worked out to very interesting exercise last year.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I want to use your big board for an upcoming Mock Draft. That worked out to very interesting exercise last year.

I'm taking tomorrow off regardless if it snows or not here so I can watch the game. Hopefully can update it then but definitely soon. Appreciate it.