If Belichick had been running the show in Tampa Bay, they wouldn't have the same talent because Belichick has proven he can't draft a decent wide receiver if his life depended on it. Evans, Godwin and Miller were all draft picks. Even Tyler Johnson and Justin Watson look decent. Belichick simply cannot evaluate the position; it's been one bum after another. Belichick also wouldn't sign off on taking shots down the field like Arians. The narrative around Brady for past few seasons was he could no longer throw the deep ball... this season he's one Long Pass Play (>25) behind league leader Mahomes (Brady has 36 completions >25 yards).
Also, how many has-been veteran wide receivers has Belichick brought into camp over the past decade? It's a lengthy list for sure and pretty much none of them have worked out. You have to go all the way back to 2007 as the only season Belichick did anything to surround Brady with a high-powered WR group. Even then, Moss at the time was considered a disgruntled, possibly declining receiver, and we got him on the cheap. Welker was unproven in Miami. Brady only had two seasons with Moss, and the second he was coming back from the torn ACL, even still Moss led the league in TD receptions both seasons (of course setting an NFL record in 2007). Welker had his best seasons with Brady, leading the league in receptions three times. Moss and Welker are the only two pro bowl receivers Brady has ever had and combined he had only seven seasons with them (Moss 2 and Welker 5). By contract Payton Manning had a combined 25 seasons with Wayne (14) and Harrison (11).
Belichick's treatment of Brady over the last few seasons was a travesty. He surrounded Brady with diminishing talent and limited returns which he would then use against Brady in terms of contractual incentives. By the start of the 2019 season, Brady knew it would be his last in New England and he knew the team wasn't good enough anymore (as a result of Belichick's poor roster construction). It's no coincidence the team goes in the toilet the very first season Brady leaves town; just as it's no coincidence that Belichick was 5-13 to start his career in NE without Brady and then 11-3 and winning his first Super Bowl with Brady.
And of course Brady became a better quarterback, with improved skills, as he became more experienced with seasons behind him. Generally that's how it works. He's always been clutch but he was no slouch otherwise earlier in his career. He led the league in TD passes in 2002 and yardage in 2005. He was a pro bowler in 2001, 2004 and 2005. Obviously he wasn't the GOAT after a handful of seasons; he had to build that resume over time. He earned the label after beating Seattle in SB 49; since then he's only piled on considerably. What he's doing now with a new team in Tampa Bay, at age 43, in the midst of all the COVID chaos, is remarkable. By contrast, Belichick has had an utterly dreadful season. He has no quarterback, an otherwise limited roster, has been outcoached repeatedly, even his precious special teams are getting embarrassed, and now the entire team quit on him under a national spotlight.
Belichick is an NFL mastermind because he understands cap economics and a player’s financial value as well as anyone; he understands how to build a roster and often builds based on a supply:demand curve.
Example: in the 2000s, few teams ran a 3-4. The Patriots were able to get premium players like Seymour, Warren, Wilfork, Washington, Vrabel, and Bruschi, all of whom fit the scheme perfectly and were undervalued by the market. When other teams copied the Patriots, they moved away from that system into more of a 4-3 because finding undervalued 3-4 guys became too difficult.
Other areas where Belichick‘s philosophy has worked well: red zone value. We’ve heard for years about how the Patriots employed a “bend, don’t break“ defense. That was by design. Each team has a finite amount of resources and an advantage is hard to find. How to allocate the money? While other teams have spent huge on edge rushers and high sack guys, Belichick has spent big on guys that will brick wall the goal line like Seymour, Wilfork, Mayo, Hightower, etc. Sure, to offset the spending, it may be some soft zone defenses, but the philosophy worked. In addition, supply and demand says that guys like Law, Revis, Gilmore, and McCourty and extremely rare and therefore more valuable whereas there are tons of 12 sack guys. Belichick has gone all-in on this line of thinking and has been right. That’s why the team has often been a league leader in points allowed but not yards allowed. A great free safety, an elite man to man CB, elite run stuffing linemen and linebackers are how you stop a team from scoring touchdowns.
But that’s when we turn to offense and things get much more murky. The Patriots led the league in points scored from 2001-19, so Bill understands the value. The catch is that while he has maximized it, he doesn’t necessarily deserve credit for it because it is dependent on an outlier in Brady.
Teams like the 2000s Colts and 2010s Packers have typically build from within but still broken the bank for their homegrown skill players. QB/WR1/WR2 typically cost around $50-60M. Manning-Harrison-Wayne; Rodgers-Nelson-Adams. Most teams with elite QBs build in a similar way. The Patriots have typically paid at most $10M (Gronk) for any skill player and half that for a WR like Welker, Edelman, etc. They pay their offensive linemen (so do those other teams.) Obviously we know that Brady is the straw that stirs the drink for the offense. The Patriots have found some good value in cheap WRs, but their system and budget became comical a while ago, and the E-P offensive system seems unnecessary with the modern rulebook. Because of Brady’s greatness, it’s often overlooked that the highest paid WR of the era was Moss ($9M) in 2008-09 and only two draft picks really stuck (Branch, Edelman). With Edelman, the Patriots didn’t even realize what they had until 2013, after they re-signed him really cheap as a punt returner and backup.
So much of the offense’s credit is Brady, which has been obvious but for an outlier 2008 when an all-time great offense looked like a good/very good offense with Cassel. People choose to cite an outlier squad as proof that there’s a “system,” which is laughable and idiotic. Every coach - McDaniels, O’Brien, Weis - have failed spectacularly elsewhere. Belichick has been like most coaches with QB prospects over the years; mostly misses with some hits. He certainly is not magical. Brady‘s drive, leadership, skills and talents are his own and not some puppet master thing.
Belichick does deserve a lot of credit for the team’s success, but without Brady the closest comparison would be the Baltimore Ravens, who also understand cap economics, player value, draft pick value, extremely well. They’ve been a good to great team most years, but they haven’t been the Patriots because of the quarterback position.
Belichick deserves praise, but he isn’t the Jordan of the dynasty. Brady is the Jordan. Belichick is not the Pippen of the dynasty. Belichick is the Phil Jackson of the dynasty. How people can confuse the value of Brady and Belichick is baffling. Brady is the greatest player ever. Belichick did an overall wonderful job of building the team around Brady; of course, building teams around all-time great players is certainly much, much easier than building one without them.