I'm rooting for competitive games and no injuries. I'm also rooting for the younger guys to step up and play well. But let's look at things anyway.
Teams with Bad records: Pats, Jets, Chargers, Broncos, Texans, Jags, Bengals, Eagles, Cowboys, Giants, Washington, 49ers, Lions, Vikings, Falcons Panthers. These 15 teams will finish with losing records most likely and besides the Jets and Jags they are within 1 loss of each other.
Key points: Denver is 4-6 an beat the Pats. Texans are 3-7 and beat the Pats. SF 4-6 beat the Pats. The key game left standing wise is the Chargers.
Teams not looking for a QB: Chargers, Eagles, Texans, Jags, Bengals, Cowboys, 49ers, Lions, Vikings, Falcons, Panthers. There is talk the Jags might move on from Minshew but I don't see it. He's played okay. The D and the weapons are the main problem.
Teams looking for a QB: Jets, Denver and Washington (99%) Giants (50%) Pats (50%) I could see the Giants giving Jones 1 more year maybe.
While order matters, in the end it's all about who will want to trade up. Any of those bottom teams can pull the trigger an jump to #2, which will probably be the Jags who would love to trade it for a king's ransom. The best thing that could happen is Washington who is only half a game back of the Eagles getting the lead in the division and winning it. That would make it hard for them to jump up. The Pats probably finish 6-10 and if so they could easily fall in the 4-8 pick range. Depends on the tie breakers. The Jets will clearly sit pat and pick Trevor. The question is how much the Pats will need to trade up to get the #2 or #3 QB (Fields and Lance). They are impressive enough that someone will.
Personally I'd be okay sitting pat and seeing what happens. My personal preference for #2 is Lance who most people have #3 behind fields. And there are a lot of teams that might let him drop as he has limited tape. I'd say hold pat and take him if he is there. Or maybe even trade down a few spots at a time if no one trades up for Lance or Fields. I really like this year of QBs. And it would not surprise me in the least if for all the hype made about Trevor one of the other guys picks in the first round out plays him.
As a side note. I don't want to not mention Zach Wilson who is rising up boards fast. Though I don't know how i feel about him yet.